Furloughing*

Over nine million jobs were furloughed in the United Kingdom during the coronavirus pandemic. Using real-time survey evidence from the UK in April and May 2020, we document which workers were most likely to be furloughed and we analyse variation in the terms on which they furloughed. We find that women were significantly more likely to be furloughed. Inequality in care responsibilities seems to have played a key role: mothers were 10 percentage points more likely than fathers to initiate the decision to be furloughed (as opposed to it being fully or mostly the employer's decision) but we find no such gender gap amongst childless workers. The prohibition of working whilst furloughed was routinely ignored, especially by men who can do a large percentage of their work tasks from home. Women were less likely to have their salary topped up beyond the 80 per cent subsidy paid for by the government. Considering the future, furloughed workers without employer-provided sick pay have a lower willingness to pay to return to work, as do those in sales and food preparation occupations. Compared with non-furloughed employees, furloughed workers are more pessimistic about keeping their job in the short to medium run and are more likely to be actively searching for a new job, even when controlling for detailed job characteristics. These results have important implications for the design of short-time work schemes and the strategy for effectively reopening the economy.     

A Google–Wikipedia–Twitter Model as a Leading Indicator of the Numbers of Coronavirus Deaths

Forecasting the number of cases and the number of deaths in a pandemic provides critical information to governments and health officials, as seen in the management of the coronavirus outbreak. But things change. Thus, there is a constant search for real‐time and leading indicator variables that can provide insights into disease propagation models. Researchers have found that information about social media and search engine use can provide insights into the diffusion of flu and other diseases. Consistent with this finding, we found that a model with the number of Google searches, Twitter tweets, and Wikipedia page views provides a leading indicator model of the number of people in the USA who will become infected and die from the coronavirus. Although we focus on the current coronavirus pandemic, other recent viruses have threatened pandemics (e.g. severe acute respiratory syndrome). Since future and existing diseases are likely to follow a similar search for information, our insights may prove fruitful in dealing with the coronavirus and other such diseases, particularly in the early phases of the disease. Subject terms : coronavirus, COVID‐19, unintentional crowd, Google searches, Wikipedia page views, Twitter tweets, models of disease diffusion.     

WHICH INTERNAL MARKET? THE NHS WHITE PAPER AND INTERNAL MARKETS

Much of the discussion surrounding the publication of the NHS White Paper 'Working for Patients' has centred on proposals for an 'Internal Market'. However, the term 'Internal Market' embraces two quite distinct concepts, both of which are found within the White Paper. These two types of Internal Market have very different implications for cost, equity, priorities and the planning and delivery of health care. The pattern of health and health care will be strongly influenced by the relative strengths of the two types of Internal Market in the future NHS.     

COVID-19 Pandemic and firm-level dynamics in the USA,UK, Europe,and Japan

This paper examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic during its first and second waves for the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan. We explore the firm-level dynamics and exhibit the impact of coronavirus events on large and small firms and firms' idiosyncratic risk. We find that the intensity of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic events is not uniform for firms. The Blank Swan events in March 2020 exhibit stronger impact the second wave till April 2021. The second wave analysis reveals the sign of recovery and receding effect of the pandemic. The idiosyncratic analysis shows the positive impact of the coronavirus and stringency measures on the idiosyncratic risk.     

Accounting and the emergence of care pathways in the National Health Service

This paper examines the effects of New Public Management reforms on the information infrastructure underpinning the work of public service professionals. Focussing on the case of the British National Health Service (NHS), the paper argues that hospital accounting reforms played a significant role in the emergence of standardised models of clinical practice. The paper moreover argues that, under the label ‘care pathways’, such standardised models of clinical practice became embedded in the information infrastructure of the NHS and concludes by discussing their implications for the work of doctors and hospital accountants.     

Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach

The sudden and rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a severe impact on financial markets and economic activities all over the world. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and intensity of financial contagion during the COVID-19 outbreak. We use daily series of stock indexes of 10 Asian countries (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and China) and 4 American countries (the United-States, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina) over the period starting from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th, 2021. Based on a copula approach, the results show that all studied markets are affected by the COVID-19 outbreak and the presence of financial contagion for all American and Asian countries. The results also show that contagion is more intense for American countries than Asian ones. These findings have practical implications, especially for investors, risk managers, and policy makers. The latter should continue to provide liquidity to the international market during this pandemic.     

Public sector borrowing requirement: A plain man's guide

With the implementation of an internal market in the UK National Health Service (NHS), interest in marketing NHS services is growing. Yet marketing practice in other sectors of the economy, and the experience of other markets in health care, raise doubts and objections as to whether marketing should be introduced in the NHS at all. Some of these objections have force, and there are important structural differences between the NHS internal market and conventional markets. Simply copying conventional marketing methods is therefore unlikely to be an effective, or even a desirable, approach to marketing in the NHS. Specific forms of marketing are required for the NHS and these forms differ for purchasing organizations, for commercialized health care providers (including NHS trusts), and for directly‐managed NHS services. Differences between these variants can be illustrated by considering the different ways in which a generic model of marketing would have to be amended for each case. The differences also suggest some policy and managerial parameters for the future development of NHS marketing.     

Analysis of risk correlations among stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly negatively impacted the global economy and stock markets. This paper investigates the stock-market tail risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and how the pandemic affects the risk correlations among the stock markets worldwide. The conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model is used to measure the tail risks of 28 selected stock markets. Furthermore, risk correlation networks are constructed to describe the risk correlations among stock markets during different periods. Through dynamic analysis of the risk correlations, the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets worldwide is examined quantitatively. The results show the following: (i) The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant tail risks in stock markets in most countries, while the stock markets of a few countries have been unaffected by the pandemic. (ii) The topology of risk correlation networks has become denser during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic makes it easier for risk to transfer among stock markets. (iii) The increase in the closeness of the risk relationship between countries with lower economic correlation has become much higher than that between counties with higher economic correlation during the COVID-19 pandemic. For researchers and policy-makers, these findings reveal practical implications of the risk correlations among stock markets.     

Cost-effectiveness and fairness in health care: NICE appraisals

Appraisals by the UK's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) examine clinical and cost-effectiveness to determine whether medical interventions should be publicly funded by the National Health Service (NHS). NICE's evaluations are attracting increasing debate about the tension between efficiency and equity. This article, using the case of renal cell cancer, argues that NICE is not only concerned with maximized aggregate welfare, but also with its social obligations to protect the less advantaged members of society. The English experience is likely to have international implications in terms of evaluating the benefits of new medical treatments.     

Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?

This study mainly investigates which predictors (VIX or EPU index) are useful to forecast future volatility for 19 equity indices based on HAR framework during coronavirus pandemic. Out-of-sample analysis shows that the HAR-RV-VIX model exhibits superior forecasting performance for 12 stock markets, while EPU index just can improve forecast accuracy for 5 equity indices, implying that VIX index is more useful for most stock markets' future volatility during coronavirus crisis. The results are robust in recursive window method, alternative realized measures and sub-sample analysis; moreover, VIX index still contains the strongest predictive ability by considering kitchen sink model and mean combination forecast. Furthermore, we further discuss the predictive effect of VIX and EPU index before the coronavirus crisis. Our article provides policy makers, researchers and investors with new insights into exploiting the predictive ability of VIX and EPU index for international stock markets during coronavirus pandemic.     

Dealing with Clinical Risk: Implications of the Rise of Evidence-Based Health Care

This article considers the nature of risk in health care and the use the National Health Service (NHS) makes of risk management. It explores how the concept of risk has been challenged by the rise of 'evidence-based' health care, accompanied and accelerated by a decline in professional prestige, status and mystique and much greater use of external measurement and controls as part of the New Public Management. The nature of evidence-based health care is outlined and the implications of the use of guidelines and other practice aids are explored. Finally, the article discusses how evidence-based health care is affecting our views of clinical risk.     

Went Fundholding, Going Commissioning? Some Evidence-Based Reflections on the Prospects for Primary Care Groups

Following the publication of the White Paper, 'The New NHS: Modern, Dependable' (Cm 3807), the Labour Government has abolished GP fundholding. Family doctors retain a lead role for primary care in planning health care with the creation of Primary Care Groups (PCGs). In due course, it is expected that health authorities will relinquish direct commissioning of care to PCGs. Although fundholding is ending, its operation provides useful evidence about how GPs approach participation in the planning of health care. This article reflects on the prospects for PCGs, drawing on original research into the reasons why practices volunteered to 'go fundholding' and how those practices selected their 'lead' partner, on whom much of the fundholding burden fell.     

Capital Investment in Primary Care—The Funding and Ownership of Primary Care Premises

The authors describe the complexity of the financing arrangements of primary care premises. They explain how the early vision of integrating health and social services within local health centres failed to be realized, with GP-owned practice premises remaining as the dominant model. There was a switch to private finance when the government loan body (General Practice Finance Corporation) was privatized in 1989. Although capital can now be freely raised by the private sector for investment in the National Health Service (NHS), these debts have to be repaid through NHS funds or user charges. The complexity, combined with demographic factors, makes it likely that as GPs opt for the Personal Medical Services (PMS) scheme and a salaried service, the trend towards for-profit corporations owning and buying out GP premises will accelerate.     

Divergent Identities? Professions, Management and Gender

This article critically examines issues of gender in relation to the 'professionalization' of management, with particular reference to the National Health Service (NHS). It focuses on the Master of Business Administration (MBA) qualification and the role this plays in professional development of managers and clinicians. One MBA course, which has included a number of participants from the NHS and has attempted to include some recognition of gender issues, is used for illustrative purposes. The article raises important concerns about the implications of gender for NHS and other public sector professionals, and draws some conclusions about the ways in which management education might incorporate gender into the curriculum.     

The stabilizing effect of social distancing: Cross-country differences in financial market response to COVID-19 pandemic policies

COVID-19 has had far-reaching global effects on the health and wellbeing of individuals on every continent. The economic and financial market response has been equally disastrous with high levels of volatility observed. This study explores the temporal relations between structural breaks, market volatility and government stay-at-home policy interventions and social distancing measures for 28 countries and their respective indices. We present results which indicate the establishment of stay-at-home policies influence sharp discontinuities in 15 of 28 markets (53.57 %) and increase market efficiency in 30 of 49 cases observed (61.22 %). These results indicate a small, statistically significant degree of stabilization in international financial markets responding to government stay-at-home policies and social distancing measures, a promising result for political actors concerned with economic performance during the public health response to the coronavirus 2019 pandemic.     

Did U.S. and Chinese investors respond differently to the exogenous shocks from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine?

This paper investigates the U.S. and Chinese stock markets' long-run responses to COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war, the main shocks that have recently battered the globalized economy. The investigation uses both static data analysis and ARMA-GARCH and DCC-GARCH dynamic risk models incorporating both events' impacts. Model fitting reveals opposite reactions of the two stock markets' long-run volatilities to the pandemic, but both volatilities have been enhanced by the war, with a much stronger reaction from the U.S. than from the Chinese market. Furthermore, the war has reduced the linkage between the two markets, while the pandemic has had no significant effect. The different responses of U.S. and Chinese investors may be attributed to the two countries' very different virus containment strategies, pandemic severities, and policy approaches to the geopolitical conflict. Our results have important practical implications for regulators' risk mitigation policy design and investors' cross-market hedging strategy development.     

Managing activity and expenditure in the new NHS market

The English National Health Service is introducing ‘Payment by Results’ so that hospitals are paid according to the activity they undertake. This should encourage hospitals to increase activity but perhaps to unaffordable levels. Drawing on interviews with NHS staff and documentary evidence, the authors examine local strategies to manage activity and NHS expenditure. These alone cannot be relied upon to control expenditure, and payments themselves should be modified.     

“活在当下”还是“未雨绸缪”？——地震对中国城镇家庭储蓄和消费习惯的长期影响

全球有27亿人口生活在地震带上,但现有经济学文献关于地震对家庭储蓄和消费行为的影响研究并不充分。本文认为,相比“未雨绸缪”,“活在当下”假说更适合刻画地震经历对家庭储蓄和消费习惯的长期影响,并提出如下经济机制:地震经历在长期内并不会影响家庭的收入水平,但它带来的死亡风险和心理冲击会使地震带居民更多地进行享受型消费,从而降低家庭储蓄率。基于国家统计局的城镇住户调查数据,本文实证发现:户主5岁以后经历的地震频率越多,其家庭储蓄率显著越低;户主经历的地震频率显著提高了家庭的享受型消费支出(如文化娱乐、养生保健、美容奢侈品支出等),但是对家庭可支配收入和非享受型消费没有显著影响。本文的研究结论有助于理解地震对城镇居民储蓄和消费习惯的长期影响,并为制定激发居民消费潜力的有关政策提供启示。     

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis.