Economic Capital Allocation Derived from Risk Measures

Abstract

We examine properties of risk measures that can be considered to be in line with some “best practice” rules in insurance, based on solvency margins. We give ample motivation that all economic aspects related to an insurance portfolio should be considered in the definition of a risk measure. As a consequence, conditions arise for comparison as well as for addition of risk measures. We demonstrate that imposing properties that are generally valid for risk measures, in all possible dependency structures, based on the difference of the risk and the solvency margin, though providing opportunities to derive nice mathematical results, violates best practice rules. We show that so-called coherent risk measures lead to problems. In particular we consider an exponential risk measure related to a discrete ruin model, depending on the initial surplus, the desired ruin probability, and the risk distribution.     

“Statistical Independence and Fractional Age Assumptions”, Gordon E. Willmot,January 1997

Abstract

The People’s Republic of China has experienced substantial growth in insurance demand over the last decade. However, development of the related laws and regulations has not kept pace with the development of the insurance industry there. This paper reports on a pioneering study comparing different statutory reserve, solvency, and early warning systems in a sample of countries and regions in three of the world’s important economic regions–Asia, North America, and Europe. It begins with the construction of a model office applicable to the People’s Republic of China’s regulatory framework and unique market environment. Reserve standards and solvency measurement systems in different supervisory frameworks then are applied to the model office. The results are analyzed as a comparative study of the People’s Republic of China’s total assets required for the reserves and solvency margins under the practices of other jurisdictions. Early warning systems also are discussed.     

Rechnungslegung und Aufsicht von Versicherungsunternehmen — Zur Vereinbarkeit von IFRS und Solvency II

Current discussions of Insurance Accounting and supervisory regulation present some major challenges for insurance companies. The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) started a project on Insurance Accounting to apply the principles of fair value to insurance liabilities. At the same time ‘Solvency II’ contains a fundamental and wide-ranging review of the insurance solvency regime in the light of adequate risk consideration. The paper discusses the aims and problems of both projects. The separate illustration presents the basis to identify the essential interdependences of ‘Insurance IFRS’ and ‘Solvency II’.The main problem is to create a unique valuation basis for Insurance Liabilities which makes allowance for relevant and reliable accounting rules as well as for solvency margins. On the basis of an actuarial approach an adequate model is shown. The construction of Fair Value contains the deviation of a Market Value Margin (MVM), which reflects the premium that a marketplace participant would demand for bearing the uncertainty inherent in the cash flows. For the purpose of solvency additional risk components must be integrated due to the fact that the Market Value Margin basically does not allow for all parts of volatility and uncertainty risk in insurance liabilities.     

Solvenzanforderungen in der Versicherungsaufsicht nach Solvency II und künftigem VAG

Solvency II leads to a new system of solvency requirements for insurance undertakings based on a risk-oriented approach. Risks have to be covered by own funds of the insurance undertakings. This academic legal paper analyzes and systemizes the new insurance related solvency system according to the Solvency II-directive, the proposed Level 2-Regulation and the proposed new German Insurance Supervision Act (VAG). It focuses then on the three problematic areas under the new solvency regime, i.e. complexity, volatility and procyclical effects. Finally it turns to the new roles, which the boards of directors and supervisory boards of insurance undertakings, the supervisory authorities, the courts and the academics will play in the Solvency II-process.     

Are non-risk based capital requirements for insurance companies binding?

We investigate whether insurers base their solvency margins on risk factors even when operating under a supervisory regime where minimum solvency requirements do not fully take such risk factors into account. To do this, we use a dataset of about 350 Dutch insurers from all major lines of business during the pre-Solvency II period 1995–2005. We find that the levels of insurers’ actual solvency margins are related to their risk characteristics and not to regulatory solvency requirements. Consequently, the vast majority of insurers hold much more capital than required, i.e. non-risk based capital requirements generally are not binding. Requirements are found to affect solvency adjustment behaviour, though. More specifically, below-target capital ratios are raised most rapidly by those insurers whose targets are relatively close to the regulatory minimum. One implication from our results is that, because insurers already follow a risk-based approach, the transition to the new European regulatory framework, Solvency II, is likely to be smooth.     

财务再保险与偿付能力最适边界和可解决域研究

偿付能力监管是现代保险监管方法的重要组成部分,更是衡量保险公司经营稳定与安全性的主要指标,如何改善偿付能力是保险业界必须讨论和研究的热点问题。再保险特别是财务再保险,由于其自身所具有的本质特性,将成为改善保险公司偿付能力的主要手段之一。本文基于再保险的角度去探索改善保险公司偿付能力的途径,从财务再保险的基本理论出发,介绍了财务再保险的定义、特征和分类,并结合保险公司偿付能力的有关知识分析了二者之间的关系。通过模型计算,得出了财务再保险与偿付能力最适边界和可解决域,这将极大的方便保险公司在购买财务再保险时的决策。     

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN MOTOR INSURANCE IN THAILAND

ABSTRACT: The 1990s saw rapid economic growth in Thailand. Motor insurance grew enormously, becoming the biggest income earner for total general business (both for the whole industry and for many individual companies). Cash flow underwriting seemed to be the recipe for success in a competitive market.
The agency distribution system for motor insurance in Thailand is almost wholly controlled by finance companies and banks, which expect a high rate of commission. Their delay in paying over the premiums to the insurers created bad-debt problems after the 1997 economic crash, when the government closed many of these financing companies. This also meant an end to the motor insurance boom, with a decrease in premium income and a reduction in investment returns and assets, thus threatening solvency margins.
Earlier in the decade, in 1993, there was the introduction of compulsory third-party insurance, followed by the establishment by the government of provincial bureaus to help these third-party claimants. And in 2000, just in time for the next wave of economic growth, a new rating system has been introduced to bring sophistication to the basic process of evaluating and pricing different risks, though still within a government tariff system. Liberalization is coming, in stages, and the industry is making changes so as to be in a fit state to cope with the increased competition and opportunities that this liberalization will bring.
Like all setbacks, the crash of 1997 was an opportunity for Thai motor insurers to examine the fundamentals of their business and plan to increase their professionalism. Some are already well on the way to high-quality service, meeting ISO 9002 standards, and have begun Internet trading.     

国际保险集团偿付能力监管改革及启示

美国次贷危机以来,不少知名国际保险集团纷纷出现偿付能力不足甚至破产的情形,保险集团偿付能力监管改革被推上了风口浪尖。本文重点研究国际保险集团偿付能力监管体系改革的新动向和新发展,并对监管理念的变革进行总结,以期对国际保险集团偿付能力监管改革有一个清晰的认识,对我国保险集团偿付能力监管体系建设有所借鉴。     

基于Copula函数的保险公司经济资本配置研究

经济资本的度量及配置是风险管理的核心内容。本文利用Copula函数构建保险公司总体风险的联合分布函数,结合TCE方法来度量保险公司经济资本,并利用动态规划方法对经济资本最优配置模型求解。最后结合中国人民财产保险股份有限公司的数据进行实证。通过研究发现,我国财险公司内部偿付能力状况较好,但险种结构有待优化。     

Solvency, Capital Allocation, and Fair Rate of Return in Insurance

In this article, we consider the links between solvency, capital allocation, and fair rate of return in insurance. A method to allocate capital in insurance to lines of business is developed based on an economic definition of solvency and the market value of the insurer balance sheet. Solvency, and its financial impact, is determined by the value of the insolvency exchange option. The allocation of capital is determined using a complete markets’ arbitrage‐free model and, as a result, has desirable properties, such as the allocated capital “adds up” and is consistent with the economic value of the balance sheet assets and liabilities. A single‐period discrete‐state model example is used to illustrate the results. The impact of adding lines of business is briefly considered.     

我国保险公司偿付能力报告改进的探讨

保险公司偿付能力报告是保险监管部门基于监管的需要要求保险公司定期报送的报告,保险监管部门希望根据这套报告来判断保险公司现在偿付能力是否充足,并预测保险公司未来偿付能力的变化。我国的偿付能力报告制度正在逐渐建立,笔者认为我国现行的偿付能力报告的内容存在一些问题,需要改进。本文从分析偿付能力报告目标出发,对现有的偿付能力报告提出一些改进建议,包括:建立预警指标体系形成多指标评价标准;增加现金流量信息;改善风险管理制度披露的内容;完善动态偿付能力测试的规定。     

保险公司偿付能力风险信息对称性与市场供求

保险公司偿付能力充足性是保险监管的内容之一,但是这一信息却往往不被投保人所获知,造成保险供给(保险公司)和保险需求(投保人)两方信息的不对称.本文以保险公司存在偿付能力风险为基本假定,以累积性预期理论和风险调整资本收益率构建保险需求和供给模型,分析在信息对称条件下和信息不对称条件下保险需求的变化及其对保险供给和保险公司...     

Zur normativ-ökonomischen Fundierung einer makroprudenziellen Versicherungsregulierung

Current microprudential regulation of the insurance industry is primarily focused on the protection of the institution’s individual solvency. The necessity for a regulation that would focus on the system as a whole is neglected by pointing out that the insurance industry does not cause systemic risk like the banking system. Contrary to this opinion, we show that from a normative perspective there are some economic reasons which may justify a macroprudential approach to insurance regulation. What is important in that respect is the very purpose of the regulation.     

Solvency II und Rechnungslegung — Diskussion einer solvabilitätsorientierten Bilanzierung von Versicherungsunternehmen

A modern stochastic solvency model for insurance companies is also based on the balance sheet like a traditional factor-based solvency model. Therefore the importance of the interactions of Solvency II and the IASB-project to develop a new standard for the accounting of insurance contracts is frequently stressed in the Solvency II discussion. The following article is discussing the deduction of an adequate accounting framework for solvency purposes of insurance companies. Thereby different theoretical options are considered and compared with the purpose of a solvency balance sheet. In a second step the resulting accounting framework is compared with existing accounting standards.     

预定利率市场化必将促成寿险市场多赢局面

不放开传统寿险产品的预定利率,传统产品就无法做大,就无法发挥其社会保障功能。只要把住偿付能力监管,市场就不会出现无序竞争。展望未来,需要更多地站在行业的角度、客户的立场来开发产品、开拓市场,唯此整个保险业才能在社会保障体系中进一步确立应有的地位,才能充分发挥经济补偿、资金融通、社会管理三大职能,才能真正实现全方位的发展,才能真正让投资者分享到行业的成长价值。     

国际保险业偿付能力监管制度比较及发展趋势研究

偿付能力监管是各国保险业监管的核心,此次金融危机揭示出原有的保险偿付能力监管制度存在巨大的缺陷。本文对美国、加拿大、百慕大、澳大利亚、英国、瑞士、欧盟等七个国家或地区的监管体制进行了比较研究,分析各国在风险的识别方式、风险评估模型及偿付能力监管报告和检查制度上的共性与特征,介绍可能的发展趋势,并为我国完善偿付能力监管制度提出了建议。     

保险业完善风险管理、提高偿付能力的演进研究

2008年金融危机袭击全球,影响着各国的经济发展。专门从事风险集中与分散的保险业也难以独善其身,加强保险业的风险防范和控制能力,已经刻不容缓。本文介绍了我国保险业风险管理的演进历程及现阶段的风险趋势,并论述了加强风险管理、提高偿付能力的路径前瞻。     

中国财险业台风灾害偿付能力评估——基于Cummins模型的研究

发生频率高、致灾影响大的台风灾害已成为制约沿海地区生产生活正常运行的重要因素,而现行以政府为主导的单一救灾方式易造成巨大的财政负担.商业保险等市场机制的引入,无疑成为海洋灾害风险分散的有益尝试.对此,基于Cummins偿付反应函数模型,以台风频发、灾情较重的浙江、福建、广东、海南四省为研究对象,计算中国财险业对台风灾害损失的偿付能力.结果显示,中国财险业对台风灾害损失的实际赔付率仅为理论值的16％,保险市场对台风灾害损失有较充裕的偿付空间.     

Solvency Solecisms: Corporate Officers' Problematic Perceptions

This examination of corporate officers' perceptions provides insights into their confused understanding of solvency. Questionnaire and interview evidence exposes officers' equivocations on whether a separate legal entity or group enterprise perspective should be adopted in assessing solvency. The serviceability of consolidated (economic entity or closed group) accounting data is demonstrated here to be equally problematic for officers making those solvency assessments in respect of an economic group and any related closed group. These outcomes have implications for agencies such as APRA and ASIC in developing regulatory policy.     

Solvency II: state of play and perspectives

Solvency II is a complex project which will be introduced in different stages for entry into force on 1 January 2013. The economic risk based approach followed in Solvency II will provide the insurance industry with a modern solvency regime that corresponds more closely with the way the industry manages its business. The implementing measures which are to be adopted in the course of 2011 will take account of the results of QIS 5, the last major quantitative impact study. They will be incorporated into a Commission regulation that will be adopted following the new procedure introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. The adoption in 2010 of the new EU supervisory architecture will reinforce the objective of a single EU rulebook for insurance supervision with the creation of EIOPA, a new authority that replaces CEIOPS and that will have important powers, thereby reinforcing the EU component in insurance supervision. Solvency II will have a major impact on insurance products and markets. It is therefore important that insurance and reinsurance undertakings start their preparations now.