Stock repurchases in Japan: A solution to excessive corporate saving?

Since the 1990 s profitable Japanese companies have faced lower domestic growth opportunities; they have invested less, yet most have not increased their payout. This has resulted in a substantial deleveraging of their balance sheets. The popular term for this phenomenon is “corporate saving.” Corporate saving by Japanese companies is now at the highest level in history. Dividends and stock repurchases are two potential ways to resolve excessive corporate saving. Stock repurchases in particular offer a fast, flexible and very public method to solve the problem of excessive corporate savings. This research is an investigation of stock repurchases by Japanese companies from 2000 to 2009. Companies repurchase their stock to return excess cash to investors, resolve governance issues, adjust capital structure and send signals. This paper uses accounting and stock market information to explain this behavior. Contrary to recent research on American firms, we find that replacement of dividends does not appear to explain stock repurchase behavior in Japan. We find evidence that repurchase behavior in Japan is linked to excessive corporate savings. However, repurchases are also closely linked to the ownership structure of the firm. Firms whose dominant owners are other members of the firm's industrial group are less likely to repurchase. Bank ownership has mixed implications for repurchases. Firms having foreign and individual ownership are more likely to repurchase stock. Foreign and individual ownership appears to improve governance and thus may be a partial solution to excessive corporate savings.     

Do Corporate Site Visits Impact Stock Prices?

We examine the stock price impact of corporate site visits using a unique data set of site visits to listed firms in China. Our main findings are as follows. First, the market reaction around corporate site visits is statistically and economically significant and is stronger for group visits, visits conducted by mutual fund managers, visits covering accounting and finance topics, visits to firms with poor information environments, and visits to manufacturing firms. Second, the stock returns around site visits are positively associated with firms’ future performance. Third, the changes in visiting funds’ holdings are more predictive of firms’ future performance than those of nonvisiting funds. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by providing evidence that site visits are important venues for investors to collect information about firms and make informed trades.     

Can Employee Stock Options Contribute to Less Risk-Taking?

The executive compensation literature presumes that shareholders offer risk-averse managers stock options to entice them to take on more risk, resulting in riskier investment decisions and thus a greater return on investment. However, recent empirical work challenges this assumption, and theoretical research even argues that high levels of option-based compensation for generally under-diversified managers may actually lead to greater risk aversion. We evaluate the incentive structure of employee stock options by examining the level of R&D investment and the return on that investment conditional on the portfolio “vega,” which captures the sensitivity of option value to stock price volatility. Our results suggest that both investment in R&D and the return on R&D, as measured by future earnings and patent awards, varies concavely with vega. That is, low to moderate levels of vega correspond to increasing investment in and returns on R&D, consistent with vega inducing more profitable investments, but marginal returns decline as vega increases. Collectively, these results, bolstered by several supplemental analyses, suggest that this surprising relation between vega and risky investment is driven by greater risk aversion at higher levels of vega. Overall, our results imply that employee stock options may not always align the incentives of managers and shareholders.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

Corporate key labs: Breakthrough or white elephant?

Based on manually collected data from Chinese listed firms' key laboratories at the state and provincial levels, this study shows that key laboratories improve firms' innovation output. Corporations with key laboratories at the state or provincial level produce more patents and citations than their counterparts. A series of endogenous treatment effects, including the Heckman two-step sample selection model, instrumental variable estimation, policy shock analysis, and propensity score matching, indicate that this study's main conclusion is robust and consistent. We also observe that key laboratories' beneficial impact on innovation output becomes more prominent for firms belonging to high-tech industries, those led by an inventor or scientist CEO, and those located in cities that enforce the protection of intellectual property. Further, key laboratories foster innovation mainly by developing scientific research capacity, increasing human capital, and improving R&D subsidies. Our findings demonstrate that key laboratories can benefit firms, their stakeholders, and the public in an emerging market such as China.     

World Bank: IDA Loans or IDA Grants?

This paper discusses President Bush's July 2001 proposal to convert a major share of IDA lending to grants. It presents arguments in favor of the proposal but also notes difficulties and points where other donor countries and supporters of the World Bank have reservations. It identifies issues which should be addressed in any final agreement among the donor countries.     

De-industrialisation in sub-Saharan Africa: myth or crisis?

This article examines the de-industrialisation hypothesis inthe context of recent developments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Alternative versions of de-industrialisation are consideredand a methodology for testing for such effects is put forward.This involves a cross-country analysis using a panel data approachwith regional and time period, as well as country dummies. Atthe regional level no specific Africa effect can be identified.To allow for diversity of experience within SSA, country residualsfrom the benchmark equation are also considered and here thereis some evidence of de-industrialisation in seven out of the16 African economies for which data were available.     

Financial dependence and exports: Entrants or incumbents?

Using firm-level customs data from 51 countries at different levels of development, we explore differential impacts of access to finance on incumbent and new exporters. Consistent with the literature, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance have higher exports based in financially more developed countries. This effect, however, occurs entirely through entrants, with no effect found for incumbents. The trade response of entrants works primarily through the extensive margin (number of exporters) rather than the intensive margin (average size). We further find access to external finance affects exporter entry rates while it does not affect exporter exit rates.     

Trade Policy Versus Competition Policy: Substitutes or Complements?

This paper deals with the difference between trade policy and competition policy for domestic prices, wages, and employment when product and labour markets are imperfectly competitive. We show that in the presence of country-specific institutions like trade unions, trade policy and competition policy are no longer substitutes in disciplining product and labour market distortions. While both domestic entry and foreign imports affect domestic price-cost margins, they differ in their effectiveness and their impact on the domestic labour market. The results in this paper suggest that enforcement of competition policy without a sufficient degree of openness to imports is typically not a first-best outcome. While domestic entry increases union welfare, foreign imports reduce it. Competition policy in the presence of labour unions is insufficient to reduce labour market distortions, while international competition reduces both labour and product distortions.     

Intermittent exporting: unusual business or business as usual?

Review of World Economics - We construct an empirically supported definition of incidental and perennial exporting and investigate to what extent incidental exporting is a steady-state of firms, to...     

Self-employment in Urban China:Entrepreneurship or Disguised Unemployment?

To explore the mechanism of entry to the self-employed sector in urban China,this study tested two hypotheses:the entrepreneurship hypothesis and the disguised unemployment hypothesis,investigating the impact of mass entrepreneurship and innovation policies on business start-ups.Three main findings emerged.First,the entrepreneurship hypothesis was rejected for both local urban residents and migrants in 2013 but was supported for both groups in 2018.Second,the causality relationship between mass entrepreneurship and innovation policies and business starts-ups was not significant.Third,the results differed by group.The entrepreneurship hypothesis was supported for the younger generation of migrants in 2018 but was clearly rejected for the less educated,both in the local urban resident and migrant groups in 2013 and 2018.Robustness checks confirmed these conclusions.     

Did Zion Williamson Give Nike’s Stock a Flat Tire?

Atlantic Economic Journal -     

Stock returns under hyperinflation: Evidence from China 1945–48

This paper presents new evidence for the Fisher hypothesis, which states a positive relationship between nominal stock returns and inflation. We introduce a new data set from the episode of hyperinflation that occurred in China after World War II. To establish the reliability of our estimates we consider different frequencies, and time horizons and econometric models. The results reveal that stocks were a complete hedge against expected inflation and a partial hedge against unexpected inflation. In contrast to the empirical literature on the ‘stock return-inflation puzzle’, we find that the Fisher hypothesis is applicable to common stocks even with a short-horizon in the Chinese hyperinflation context.     

Credit Conditions in Pakistan: Supply Constraints or Demand Deficiencies?

This paper attempts to pin down the key drivers of demand for and supply of real private sector credit in Pakistan. I use both the equilibrium and disequilibrium econometric frameworks, specifically tackling the issue of lack of consistency and/or efficiency of joint estimators in the former via the three‐stage least squares technique. On the demand side, I find that higher economic activity provides stimulus to credit whereas inflation dampens it. The stock market seems to play a dual role: as a source of alternative financing, a bullish market negatively impacts credit while, as an indicator of economic expectations, it provides a positive impetus. On the supply side, banks' lending capacity is found to be the major driver of credit while government borrowing has a crowding‐out effect. Pakistan currently faces supply constraints, which might put an additional check on capacity utilization by firms, thus damaging growth prospects. The results have important policy implications.     

Middle‐income countries: trapped or merely slowing?

Since the turn of the century, growth has slowed in a number of middle income economies, giving rise to fears ‐ exacerbated by the financial crisis of 2008‐09 ‐ that they were entering a low growth equilibrium. A survey of the literature on the middle income trap suggests that it is difficult to rigorously identify countries that might be trapped; that in most cases growth appears to be regressing to a longer term normal and in East Asian economies remains at a respectable 5 percent to 7 per cent rate; that the research on the trap has yet to come up with a new growth model for middle income economies; and that policy recommendations on offer are of the generic variety applicable to virtually all economies, developed and developing.     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.