基于Rotterdam模型的中国热带农产品进口市场格局研究

[目的]为把握热带农产品进口市场格局和供给效率,对中国热带农产品进口的市场竞争关系进行研究。[方法]文章基于1992—2020年中国热带农产品进口贸易数据,以木薯、天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒为研究对象,运用Rotterdam模型估计测算这4种热带农产品进口市场各来源国的进口需求弹性,实证分析中国热带农产品进口市场格局。[结果]（1）中国热带农产品的进口来源较为集中,对泰国、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚等东盟国家的进口依赖程度相对较高;（2）木薯主要来源国之间的竞争性不强,中国对木薯有稳定的进口需求和进口来源地;（3）天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒的进口来源国之间呈现出不同程度的市场竞争关系;（4）未来中国热带农产品进口需求对东盟国家依赖将进一步加深。[结论]中国应充分把握双边贸易关系,重新审视并完善与东盟国家及地区农业国际合作战略,不断促进热带农产品进口来源地和贸易渠道的多元化,以保障热带农产品贸易安全。     

A study of the impact of direct trade on Taiwan's fishery sector with special reference to the effect of China's WTO accession

After Taiwan became a member of the WTO in 2002, its tariff rates for fishery products decreased by an average of 35.5% from the level in 2001. Direct imports of fishery products from China would be allowed in 2004. These tariff reductions and the relaxation of import restrictions will have a strong effect on Taiwan's fishery sector. In this paper, we present an analysis of how fishery production, prices, input usage, and welfare distribution might react to trade liberalization. In addition to evaluating the overall impact of tariff reduction on Taiwan's fishery sector, we assess the effects of China's WTO accession on the Taiwanese market. We use a fishery sector equilibrium model in which 40 products and 68 fishing activities are identified. The model also includes an import–export subsector, a factor input subsector, and a supply–demand equilibrium condition to analyze the distributions of social welfare due to trade liberalization. Three simulations are conducted to investigate the impact of tariff reductions in 2004, 2 years after Taiwan has jointed the WTO. The results indicate that Taiwan's fishery sector will be adversely affected when it encounters the extremely low import prices of certain fishery products from China. The total production of the fishery sector and its value are predicted to decrease by 4.03% and 9.96%, respectively, in 2004. Aquaculture would suffer the heaviest loss with a 7.48% reduction in the production and a 19.23% reduction in its value. The demand for labor will decrease by 8.71%. The effect is most pronounced in aquaculture in which the demand for labor will go down by 11.40% and the wage rate will decline by 14.28%. To meet the challenge of globalization, the Taiwanese fishery industry will have to diversify, and improve its operational efficiency as well as production and distribution structures for a sustainable development.     

Japan's peanut import demand: implications for United States exports

Japan's import demand for both raw peanuts and processed peanut products was estimated using the Rotterdam model in order to determine the impact of an increase in the Japanese raw peanut quota on peanut imports from the USA and its competitors. The results indicate that if a larger import budget were allocated to raw peanut imports by Japan, most of the increase would be allocated to imports of Chinese raw peanuts. Furthermore, U.S. exports of peanut products could be affected if Japanese expenditures on peanut product imports change as a result of an increase in the quota for raw peanut imports. Thus, this study concludes that an increase in the Japanese import quota for raw peanuts provides only limited market opportunity for U.S. peanut exports, and China appears to benefit more than the USA from an increase in the Japanese raw peanut import quota. In contrast, the value added trade of peanut products could provide a better market opportunity for the U.S. peanut industry.     

Do state-owned enterprises benefit more from China's cereal grain tariff-rate quota regime?

In 2016, the United States launched a formal dispute with the World Trade Organization (WTO) concerning China's wheat, corn, and rice tariff-rate quota (TRQs) administration. A formal panel was requested in August 2017, with several major grain exporters, including Canada, joining as third-party members. This study employs two unique micro-level datasets to investigate the role of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises’ (SOE and non-SOE, respectively) in China's agricultural imports. Results suggest that SOEs are noticeably more active in importing quota-bound commodities compared to quota-free imported commodities. Moreover, the larger role of SOEs in China's cereal grain imports is negatively correlated with China's food security targets, as measured by estimated prior year stocks-to-use ratios. Conversely, above average food security targets in China's cereal grain market leads to an important extensive margin adjustment of non-SOE import participation. Finally, we find very little compelling evidence that China's September reallocation of unused TRQ has any economic or statistically significant impact on non-SOE entry into importing or the intensity with which their imports occur.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

Dairy Tariff-Quota Liberalization: Contrasting Bilateral and Most Favored Nation Reform Options

A highly disaggregated, "tariff line," source-differentiated, partial equilibrium model of U.S. specialty cheese imports is developed to investigate reform options for tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). A mixed-complementarity framework is used to represent bilateral and most favored nation (MFN) tariff quotas. The impacts of liberalizing U.S. specialty cheese imports via bilateral and MFN quota expansions, out-of-quota tariff cuts, and simultaneous liberalization scenarios are evaluated. We find that the path of liberalization is quite different, depending on the reform approach undertaken, particularly if the United States adopted an MFN quota administration mechanism for specialty cheese imports.     

中国原木进口与国际原木非法贸易问题的若干思考

在分析认识中国木材供需矛盾问题的基础上,对中国的原木进口和国际非法采伐加剧原木非法贸易之间的关系进行了探讨。中国原木进口依存度高,非法原木进口防范程度低,缺乏应有的进口门槛,行业自律机制不健全,给非法原木贸易提供了机会。为进一步探讨国际反原木非法贸易对中国原木进口需求的影响,文章采用差异化进口需求模型方法,分析了国际打击原木非法贸易背景下中国原木进口需求的相关数量变化关系。研究结果表明,中国的原木进口正在朝着理性的方向进展,来自美国、新西兰的原木进口比重日益增加而来自非法原木高危国的原木进口日益减少。基于研究提出中国应提高自身的生产能力以及完善合法认证体系,降低原木的进口依赖,同时发挥大国作用,一起推动非法原木高危国的木材合法认证体系的发展。     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。     

Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports

The European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice include developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs). The EU has made a commitment to allow duty‐free and quota‐free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions: (1) does the inclusion of import tariffs lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? (2) when a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially of poor countries? We present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non‐homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. We then estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminated import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show the importance of non‐homothetic preferences and import tariffs. Ignoring import tariffs and the non‐homothetic parameter may produce results which are biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore, the simulation findings demonstrate that, in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.     

Why projections on China’s future food supply and demand differ

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self-sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.     

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).     

The Market Structure and Price Competition in China's Wheat Import Market:

This paper reveals that wheat exporters to China compete in an imperfectly competitive market. U.S. wheat exports face strong price competition from Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Community, but has a highly elastic demand in China. By adopting an aggressive promotion policy, the U.S. could reduce the market shares of Argentina and Canada. China would shift to wheat from Argentina, Australia, and Canada if U.S. wheat exports were interrupted because of high prices or non-price trade frictions. An expansion in China's wheat imports would accrue to wheat from Argentina and the U.S.     

水资源安全视角下我国粮油虚拟水贸易实证研究

[目的]通过测算我国粮油虚拟水进出口量,估算粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率,以期为我国实施农产品虚拟水贸易战略缓解农业用水短缺问题提供有益借鉴。[方法]文章利用标准彭曼公式估算2001—2017年我国粮油单位质量虚拟水含量,进而计算出2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水进出口量,进一步计算我国粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率。[结果](1)我国粮油单位质量虚拟水平均含量由高到低依次为棉籽、大豆、油菜籽、花生、大米、小麦和玉米;(2) 2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水贸易一直处于净进口状态,并且净进口量整体呈增长趋势,2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水净进口量累计达2.216万亿m3,相当于节约了同等数量粮油生产用水量;(3)我国油料虚拟水净进口量远远高于粮食虚拟水净进口量,大豆和油菜籽是虚拟水净进口最多的油料,并且其进口市场集中度很高;(4) 2001—2017年我国粮油虚拟水贸易对农业用水的贡献率不断提高,由8%增至40%。[结论]虚拟水贸易大大节约了我国农业用水量,在一定程度上缓解了我国农业用水短缺问题,为我国节约水资源和实施水资源可持续发展战略提供了新的发展思路。     

Alternative Methods for Estimating Price Elasticities of Imports

Abstract

This article compares three commonly-used methods for estimating import price elasticities: (1) trade-weighted price elasticities of domestic demand and supply along with price transmission; (2) direct estimates based on ad hoc import demands; and (3) Armington model estimates. Using data from El Salvador's grain markets (white maize, red beans, and rice), the results indicate that the second method provides the most reliable estimates and that the Armington procedure may not be appropriate for estimations of this type. However, the first method offers the best guesstimates to assess potential rather than historical import response as trade is liberalized.     

A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of U.S.–Canadian Disputes on the World Softwood Lumber Market

This paper utilizes a world spatial equilibrium model to examine the effects of U.S.–Canadian softwood lumber disputes on U.S., Canadian, and other exporters' and importers' lumber markets. Results show that the U.S. import tariff on Canadian softwood lumber impacts prices, supply, demand and trade flows not only in the United States and Canada but also in the other countries. Though the goal of U.S. trade restriction is to limit imports from Canada and protect its producers, the United States cannot fully accomplish this goal as non-Canadian exporters fill the void left by the reduced imports from Canada. Canadian producers lose from the U.S. policy, but their loss is mitigated as Canada redirects its exports to other importers. Importing countries such as Japan and the European Union benefit from the U.S. trade restrictions as Canada seeks to sell its softwood lumber to these countries.     

Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime

This article studies the integration of China's cotton market with the international market, especially the U.S. market. Investigating the futures prices from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in the U.S. and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in China with several time series models, we find that a long‐run cointegration relationship exists between these two series. The two markets share price transmissions, and based on results from an Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, we find their price volatilities are similar. We argue that China's recent exchange rate reform and its gradual liberalization in bilateral cotton trade since it joined World Trade Organization have had important impacts on these futures markets. Based on these findings, several important economic and policy implications are derived.     

The Impacts on U.S. and Canadian Slaughter and Feeder Cattle Prices of a U.S. Import Tariff on Canadian Slaughter Cattle

On 30 June 1999, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a preliminary ruling instructing the U.S. Customs Service to require cash deposits or bonds totaling 4.73% (later increased to 5.57%) of the value of imported Canadian slaughter cattle. In November 1999, the U.S. International Trade Commission issued its final ruling which rescinded the anti‐dumping tariff. If the tariff had been permanently imposed, it would have affected import quantities of Canadian slaughter cattle and U.S. and Canadian slaughter and feeder cattle prices. Excess supply, import demand and price transmission elasticities are estimated and used within a comparative statics framework to estimate the impacts of the tariff had it been permanently imposed. We find that the effects of the tariff would have been small even if offsetting increases in carcass beef imports had not occurred. If offsetting carcass beef imports had occurred, any potential price gains could have been offset by increased logistical costs within the processing sector. Thus, this particular rent‐seeking activity would not have had a significant impact on U.S. cattle prices even if it had been permanently imposed. However, the tariff would have had significant negative effects on Canadian cattle prices. Le 30 juin 1999, le Département du Commerce des États‐Unis obligeait temporairement les douanes américaines à réclamer un dépôt ou une caution équivalant à 4,73 pour cent (portée à 5,57 pour cent par la suite) de la valeur des bovins de boucherie importés du Canada. En novembre de la même année, la Commission du commerce international américaine rendait sa décision finale, qui abrogeait le tarif anti‐dumping. Eût‐il été maintenu, pareil tarif aurait modifié les importations de bovins d'abattage canadiens, ce qui aurait affecté le prix des bovins d'engrais et d'abattage des deux pays. Les auteurs ont éalué l'offre excédentaire, la demande à l'importation et les élasticités du transfert des prix, puis ont recouru à un cadre de comparaison statique afin d'estimer les incidences du tarif, advenant le cas où il aurait étéétabli à demeure. On se rend compte qu'un tel tarif n'aurait guére eu de répercussions, même en freinant la hausse des importations de carcasses de büf. La majoration éventuelle des prix attribuable à la réduction des importations aurait pu être annulée par les coûts logistiques plus élevés des transformateurs. Par conséquent, cette activité de maximisation de la rente n'aurait pas eu d'impact significatif sur le prix des bovins aux États‐Unis. En revanche, l'imposition permanente du tarif aurait sensiblement diminué le prix des bovins au Canada.     

Estimating the U.S. Import Demand for Melons: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

The United States is one of the world's leading consumers as well as one of the world's leading producers of melons. However, U.S. melons are produced only from May through December. In order to supplement the domestic demand and make melons available year-round, the United States imports melons from Latin American countries. This article analyzes the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using monthly data on import volumes and values. A static and a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System are estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The estimated parameters are used to estimate the short- and long-run price and expenditure elasticities.