金融危机背景下美联储的非常规货币政策操作

面对金融危机,关联储不仅非常规地使用传统货币政策工具,而且还采取大量激进的非常规措施,通过购买各种证券向市场注入流动性以及运用信息沟通引导市场预期降低长期借贷成本的方式缓解金融市场紧缩局面。非常规货币政策是应对非常时期的非常措施,随着经济的复苏,各国经济刺激政策如何寻找安全退出路径是这一时期全球央行的主要任务。     

The determinants of monetary target credibility

This paper examines the impact of several different factors on the credibility of the Federal Reserve's monetary targets. Two factors appear to explain why the targets became less credible during the 1980s. First, the Fed's shift from M1 to M2 targets reduced credibility because the latter aggregate is less controllable. Second, velocity instability caused the Fed to widen the target ranges and this action signaled that they were placing less weight on monetary targets in the conduct of monetary policy.     

The shaky legal foundations of European monetary union

A paper currency is underpinned by the power of a state to define and control the issue of legal tender. In legal theory, EMU will centralise this power. But in practice, the legal structure might not be strong enough to enforce currency issue rules against a member state in conditions of crisis. Instability could result if investors move euro balances out of a state's banking system to avoid perceived risk.     

The design and communication of systematic monetary policy strategies

The efficacy of central bank communications is inextricably linked to the characteristics of the monetary policy framework. Therefore, this paper presents a set of fundamental principles regarding the joint design of monetary policy strategy and communications. The practical implications of these principles are illustrated by considering a number of significant policy challenges faced by central banks in the advanced economies.     

The role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission

The recent financial crisis has stimulated theoretical and empirical research on the propagation mechanisms underlying business cycles, in particular on the role of financial frictions. Many issues concerning the interactions between banking and monetary policy forced policy makers to redefine economic policies, and motivated macroeconomists to focus on the implications of financial intermediation constraints for asset price fluctuations, the behavior of non-financial firms, households, governments and in turn for real macroeconomic performance. This paper surveys research on the role of financial intermediaries and financial frictions in the transmission of monetary policy and discusses how to design both the new banking regulatory and supervisory structures and monetary policy in order to stabilize the economy. It also serves as an introduction to this special issue.     

The baby boom,the baby bust,and the housing market

This paper explores the impact of demographic changes on the housing market in the US, 1st by reviewing the facts about the Baby Boom, 2nd by linking age and housing demand using census data for 1970 and 1980, 3rd by computing the effect of demand on price of housing and on the quantity of residential capital, and last by constructing a theoretical model to plot the predictability of the jump in demand caused by the Baby Boom. The Baby Boom in the U.S. lasted from 1946-1964, with a peak in 1957 when 4.3 million babies were born. In 1980 19.7% of the population were aged 20-30, compared to 13.3% in 1960. Demand for housing was modeled for a given household from census data, resulting in the finding that demand rises sharply at age 20-30, then declines after age 40 by 1% per year. Thus between 1970 and 1980 the real value of housing for an adult at any given age jumped 50%, while the real disposable personal income per capita rose 22%. The structure of demand is such that the swelling in the rate of growth in housing demand peaked in 1980, with a rate of 1.66% per year. Housing demand and real price of housing were highly correlated and inelastic. If this relationship holds in the future, the real price of housing should fall about 3% per year, or 47% by 2007. The theoretical model, a variation of the Poterba model, ignoring inflation and taxation, suggests that fluctuations in prices caused by changes in demand are not foreseen by the market, even though they are predictable in principle 20 years in advance. As the effects of falling housing prices become apparent, there may be a potential for economic instability, but people may be induced to save more because their homes will no longer provide the funds for retirement.     

浅谈近年内我国的货币政策

文中首先回顾了“九·五”期间我国货币政策的利与弊 ,由此推论出中国经济将经过一个长效平谷期。在此基础上 ,从货币供应量、利率水平、调控方式、传导机制、政策倾斜几个方面对中央的货币政策做了预测 ,建议货币政策在近年内的重点应放在解决通货紧缩问题上 ,同时 ,货币政策的稳健性不能丢     

The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia

This paper examines the effects of Russian foreign exchange and monetary policies under conditions of abundant natural resources during the period 1999–2011 using structural VAR models. The results suggest that monetary policy shocks, which are identified as money supply disturbances, have a persistent effect on real output, and more than half of the volatility in real output can be explained by changes in the money supply. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that stock prices are a more significant transmission channel of monetary policy than bank loans.     

我国货币政策传导中的现金管理效应

我国历年在对基础货币进行管理的同时,对银行体系外的现金存量也实施着计划性控制.论文认为,当前我国的公众消费仍以现金交易为主要手段,现金和基础货币管理的双轨制度虽然能够抑制价格上涨,但也极易引起消费需求与信贷投资之间的非均衡增长,形成消费需求缺口.并以我国近些年几种现金需求量的变化趋势进行了实证.     

The global financial crisis: Lessons for European integration

The EU's limited fiscal capacity has proven to be the most critical constraint in responding to the global financial crisis in a coordinated manner. The EU does not have enough resources to rescue the troubled financial institutions and member states. This leads to a nationalization of rescue operations, which undermines the Single European Market and requires IMF involvement with respect to member states in distress. The EU must also complete the lacking elements of the Single European Market architecture (such as European financial supervision) and help in strengthening global policy and regulatory coordination.     

The aftermath of France's last moral panic and its sociology

Stéphane Beaud and Michel Pialoux Violences urbaines, violence sociale. Genèse des nouvelles classes dangereuses Robert Castel L'insécurité sociale. Qu'est‐ce qu'être protégé? David Garland The culture of control. Crime and social order in contemporary society Hugues Lagrange Demandes de sécurité. France, Europe, Etats‐Unis     

秦裕琨:普罗米修斯的事业

“上帝”之手决定了热力学第一定律：宇宙的能量总和是个常数。第二定律则属于人类：水往低处流，人却要往高处走，生命和历史根本就是对抗第二定律的过程。正如伟大的物理学家薛定谔所说的：“把有序之流集中到自己身上，能从合适的环境中汲取有序从而使自己免于衰变为混沌的原子。”     

中国对亚洲货币和金融合作的需求与供给

围绕共同发展与增长,亚洲货币和金融合作从无到有并获得了阶段性的成果,体现了亚洲国家和经济体的共同利益和合作的信心。但是,目前的合作机制在预防危机方面仍然具有很大的局限性。新经济环境下,亚洲货币和金融合作的需求仍然存在。中国是亚洲货币和金融合作的主要需求者和供给者。参加合作有助于中国的经济与金融的稳定和安全,提高在亚洲的经济影响力;中国通过扩大市场,经济的领先增长,人民币汇率稳定促进合作。在合作进程中,中国应该根据经济增长的不同阶段确定合作的顺序。     

The zecca mint: a self-enforcing monetary constitution in historic venice

Economics of Governance - Monetary history is largely a repeated narrative of currency debasement. Yet historic Venice (1172–1797), ruled by elite patricians, stands out as an example of...