Five shocks that could lead to recession

• ? Although world growth has slowed sharply, we are still some way from global recession territory. Additional shocks, probably in combination, would be needed to tip the global economy into recession.
• ? Of the range of possible shocks, we consider five plausible candidates: rising oil prices, a sharp slump in equities, tightening credit standards, a financial shock to emerging markets, and further escalation in trade tensions.
• ? By themselves, each would need to be very large to trigger a recession. However, a combined set of plausibly‐sized shocks could well be enough. Historically it is common for different shocks to coincide or overlap, and there is a risk of a slowdown feeding on its own momentum.
• ? In our view, the risk of these shocks occurring is not insignificant, as we've seen in recent oil price volatility and given factors such as high equity valuations.

     

哈尔滨市房地产业在国民经济中的作用

哈尔滨市房地产业在国民经济中起着承栽体的基本作用,同时在国民经济活动中起着联结生产与生活、影响公共和个人消费倾向、促进产业结构优化调整,有助于城市经济结构优化、提高城市集聚效益、提高劳动生产率、优化消费结构、调整社会关系产生的重要作用.     

After the pandemic: Medium-term growth uncertainties

• ▪ The coronavirus is having a very large short-term negative impact on world growth. But the medium-term growth outlook is more uncertain. Much depends on the policy response - a strong and well-designed response could contain the medium-term output losses, but large and enduring damage is a risk.
• ▪ Growth patterns after significant GDP declines vary. Historical evidence points to large upfront effects from pandemics and natural disasters, but the medium-term outcomes are mixed, with policy responses a crucial determinant. Longer recessions and financial crises tend to lead to weaker medium-term growth.
• ▪ The coronavirus may trigger annual GDP declines among the worst seen in the last 100 years. Economies can bounce back sharply after such declines, but our analysis suggests output losses also endure in a significant number of cases.
• ▪ The US interwar experience shows the danger of allowing financial distress to snowball and exacerbate GDP declines. The weakness of medium-term growth after the global financial crisis confirms the long-term impact of such distress.
• ▪ A key risk for the medium term is that firms and/or households react to the coronavirus recession and disruption by raising savings, accelerating a shift toward ‘Japanification’ of major economies.
• ▪ Our baseline forecasts envisage moderate medium-term output losses due to coronavirus, in part reflecting rapid and large-scale policy interventions. But uncertainty around this forecast is significant and considerable variation is possible across economies.

     

论法律比较研究之方法

比较方法是比较法学运用的重要方法,本文在讨论比较方法的思维特征的基础上,探讨比较法学的研究对象与目标,分析法律比较方法的类型、原则、程序,本文还探讨了比较法学理论在中国法制建设中的作用地位,剖析了法律比较方法的规则及价值。     

论法律比较研究之方法

比较方法是比较法学运用的重要方法,本文在讨论比较方法的思维特征的基础上,探讨比较法学的研究对象与目标,分析法律比较方法的类型、原则、程序,本文还探讨了比较法学理论在中国法制建设中的作用地位,剖析了法律比较方法的规则及价值.     

从工业经济到体验经济的广州消费需求

人的行为存在一定的动机,这些动机驱使人从事各种活动。古代的中国人,将人类最基本的需要归纳为四件事:"衣、食、住、行"。本文以马斯洛的需要层次论为基础,对广州居民消费中"四大件"的变化进行分析,探讨消费需求的变化规律,以寻求中国设计的发展方向。     

增强银行卡品牌忠诚度途径研究

文章在详细论述银行卡品牌忠诚度重要性的基础上,从营销的角度提出了增强银行卡品牌忠诚度的对策。     

War and the global economy

Recent months have seen the adoption of an increasingly belligerent stance towards Iraq on the parts of the US and the UK in particular, signalling a shift from the policy of containment that has been in place since the last Gulf War, and towards a more aggressive policy. As yet, it is unclear whether this increased belligerence will culminate in a renewed full–scale military engagement with Iraq, to achieve the much vaunted 'regime change', or whether the outcome will be an agreement to a new programme of weapons inspections. But the risk of a military conflict appears to have increased. This article assesses the potential economic implications of such a conflict, exploring different scenarios for how it might evolve, and their impact on oil prices and global growth.     

从循环经济着手做起

循环经济是知识经济的第一步。这个道理非常简单,就是在你还没有达到知识经济的时候,你必须现在就把自然资源用好。什么叫用好呢,就是高效率地利用。最高效率是什么呢,就是循环使用,不浪费,这就是最高效率的利用,也是从循环经济到知识经济之间的关系。党的十六大以后,胡锦涛总书记专门提出要把循环经济的理念,贯彻到区域经济产品生产和城乡建设之中,贯彻到各个领域之中,这个覆盖面就     

Housing and the Korean economy

This paper explores the nexus between housing and the Korean economy. It starts with an overview of the size, growth, and volatility of residential investment in conjunction with long-term resource allocation and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations. Then, the evolution of housing finance and its implications for recent house price run-up are discussed. The relationships among housing price, consumer spending, and inflation are also investigated. Particular attention is paid to the debate over house price bubbles, housing wealth effects on consumption, and the causality between house price and inflation. The paper concludes with a brief assessment of government intervention to stabilize house prices.     

How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased-systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk-taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.     

Corporate power and the local economy

This article examines Nissan in Sunderland as the model for ‘Japanisation’. It is addressed in terms of Nissan's relations with the central and local state, of the company's control over its physical environment, and suppliers, and of the company's policy towards the management of human resources.     

Federal regulation and the American economy

This article begins by assessing the cost of Federal regulation in the United States and how it has changed over time. It shows that there have been periods when these costs have fallen but that the trend is upwards. Some regulations result in net benefits but many produce more costs than benefits and the costs bear most heavily on smaller firms. Various measures taken to control regulatory activities are reviewed. The article ends with a plea for Congress to take responsibility for the quality of regulation instead of leaving it to the regulatory agencies and the President.     

Education,training and the economy

Report* on an international conference on “Human Capital Investments and Economic Performance”, Santa Barbara, California, November 1993     

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.