ASEAN‐5 bond market development: Where does it stand? Where is it going?

Since the late 1990s' Asian crisis, ASEAN‐5 countries have expended considerable effort in developing their bond markets. However, the size of these markets relative to GDP has hardly changed. Can we explain this? And does it mean that domestic markets have not, in fact, developed? The article argues that bond market growth has been held back by a sharp fall in business investment, which has left firms with little need for bond borrowing. Even so, markets have developed in other ways, to such an extent that substantial amounts of foreign portfolio investment have begun to flow into ASEAN‐5 bonds. These developments have important ramifications. With the investor base growing and infrastructure investment likely to rise, ASEAN‐5 bond markets could expand rapidly, holding out the prospect that the region could finally achieve ‘twin engine’ financial systems in the near future.     

Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport

Review of World Economics - Despite a general agreement that piracy poses a significant threat to maritime shipping, empirical evidence regarding its economic consequences remains scarce. This...     

Community Banks vs. Non-Community Banks: Where is the Advantage in Local Small Business Funding?

Recent literature questions the relative advantage of community banks vs. non-community banks in small business funding. Using the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s definition of a community bank, the study re-examines the role of community banks in providing funding to small businesses using the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) small business lending data over the period 2003 to 2016. The empirical results indicate that community banks are still providing 30 percent more small business funding than non-community banks, especially after the Great Recession. This role is even more important in those counties in non-metropolitan areas. In addition, the results indicate that in counties where community banks do not have offices, they provide 48 percent fewer loans compared to non-community banks in counties where they do not have offices, which suggests community banks still use physical offices to maintain their relationship lending advantage. Clearly, from a public policy standpoint, the results support the view that community banks are important because they continue to provide valuable services to small business firms throughout the country.

     

Going Back to Comparing Apples and Oranges? Comment on De Vries

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Going Back to Comparing Apples and Oranges? Comment on De Vries     

From boycott to buycott: is activism from the North good for the South?

Review of World Economics - This article provides an original theoretical exploration of the potential effects of northern activism on labor conditions and welfare in the South using a duopoly...     

Wage dispersion in Germany and the US: is there compression from below?

Wage compression from below is a common diagnosis for Germany compared to the U.S. We develop alternative hypotheses in order to identify the so-called accordion effect, i.e. reduced inter-quantile distances below the median especially for low skilled and other ill-paid groups. Our results are partly at odds with wide-spread beliefs. Using large micro data sources we find evidence of an accordion effect at the low end of the distribution for the U.S. The results for Germany, however, are contrary to what one would have expected in case of marked wage compression from below. For low-skilled workers of both genders and for female workers in general we find higher inter-quantile distances below rather than above the median. By contrast, there is strong evidence for the accordion effect if skilled male workers are considered.     

New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?

In this paper we analyse the effect that the euro has had on trade using a gravity model for 28 countries and covering the period 1990–2013. Our gravity specification includes time-varying fixed effects, correcting any possible bias that may arise from multilateral resistance variables or unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Additionally, we explore the potential complementarity or substitution relationship between FDI and trade by including FDI inward and outward stocks in the specification. The time period in the dataset covers the creation and evolution of the European Monetary Union (EMU), starting from the introduction of notes and coins and including the recent economic crisis. Overall, our results show a positive effect of the EMU on trade and reveal the existence of a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Where is the beef? The costs of American aid and wartime China's hyperinflation

Upon the outbreak of the Pacific War (December 1941), the United States expanded its military assistance to allied nations including China under the “Lend-Lease Act”. However, the US defaulted the payment for their staff dispatched to and stationed in China which forced China to make huge sums of advance payment. The total costs of American military presence in China, including China's Reverse Lend-Lease contribution as a return to US military aid, amounted 15% to 22% of China's total fiscal expenditures. Since the beginning of 1937, the price indices increased only 200% by 1941 but rocketed to 1600 times by 1945. We develop a dynamic Fiscal Theory of Price Level (FTPL) to capture the relationship between fiscal shocks and price level. Our DSGE model shows that seigniorage (fiscal demand) driven inflationary monetary policy can lead to some hyperinflation that can be predicted and quantified. We then empirically examine the relationship between fiscal expenditures and inflation levels using provincial panel data 1937–1945. The estimation results show that local price levels increased 1.6% to 3.7% for every 10% increases of China's advance payment to US troops.     

Unemployment Insurance and the Business Cycle: What Adjustments are Needed?

During the 2007–2011 economic downturn, the duration that one could collect unemployment insurance (UI) in the United States increased to an unprecedented 99 weeks, and the UI benefit amount increased by $25. This article explores the policy of increasing the generosity of UI during recessions using a model that accounts for the insurance and moral hazard implications of UI as well as the program's impact on job creation. When limited to adjusting the duration of benefits, a more generous UI system is optimal. However, due to UI's negative impact on job creation and the increased cost of providing benefits when unemployment is high, the optimal extension is just 1.3 months. When the government adjusts both the benefit amount and its duration, the optimal policy during downturns is a reduction in the replacement rate. This mitigates the decline in job creation and funds a UI extension of 4.3 months.     

Dutch Disease in the post-soviet countries of Central and South-West Asia: How contagious is it?

This study seeks to determine the extent to which the former communist states of Central and South-West Asia are “infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.     

Further evidence on the international business cycle and the ERM: is there a European business cycle?

Successful exchange rate regimes impose policy disciplines thatare likely to lead to conformity in the business cycles of theparticipating countries. This conjecture is borne out in thepaper by the evidence in it that the business cycle affiliationof ERM member countries has shifted from the United States toGermany since the formation of the ERM. This effect is bolsteredby the growing links in trade between the EU countries. TheUnited Kingdom is conspicuous among the latter in that its businesscycle affiliation did not change in the period covered by thestudy.     

Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.     

Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?

It has been frequently argued that surges in capital inflows are a major cause of credit booms and banking crises in emerging market economies. This view suggests that there is little role that can be played by domestic policy to break this linkage. This need not be the case. We show that the linkage between surges and booms is not as strong as is often assumed. One problem with most previous studies is that a wide range of measures for both surges and booms has been used with little checking of the robustness of results. We deal with this issue by replicating 14 different measures of capital surges (gross and net) and 5 credit boom proxies from the literature on a sample of 46 countries from 1981–2010. A second difficulty is that some previous studies have not distinguished between the proportions of surges followed by booms and booms preceded by surges. We found substantial differences between these two relationships. While there is a good deal of variation in the individual correlations the vast majority of the calculated probabilities of a surge being followed by a credit boom fall within the range of 4 % to 13 %. Although the proportion of credit booms preceded by surges is higher, the correlations for both directions are much lower than are frequently assumed. While the probabilities of a surge being followed by a credit boom generally increased from the 1980s to the 1990s they fell again in the 2000s, suggesting the possibility that authorities have become better at limiting the adverse effects of surges on domestic credit growth.     

Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet effect hypothesis of Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance, 49, 237–254.]. Moreover, when stock prices approach the floor limits, we observe lower than normal market conditions’ trading volume and trade size but a wider spread. The panic selling psychology of individual investors for fear of illiquidity and the strategic trading decisions of discretionary traders during periods prior to price limit hits at the floors are conjectured as possible explanations for the observed price behaviors. Post-limit-hit analysis reveals evidence of delayed price discovery at the ceiling limit but price reversal at the floor.     

Where is the balance? Implications of adopting Special Products and Sensitive Products in Doha negotiations for world and China's agriculture

This paper analyzes the potential impacts of the agreements of Special Products and Sensitive Products (SPs) in Doha negotiations on world and China's Agriculture. By linking a global trade model to a national policy model which itself is connected to a set of disaggregated household data, we are able to assess the effects of the inclusion of SPs into a Doha agreement on agriculture in China and the rest of the world and different farmers across China. Our results show that since the inclusion of SPs in a Doha agreement adds more protection in agriculture, the total quantity of resources used in world agriculture increases. Although increasing, it is important to note that the total rise is only a fraction of a percent of agricultural value added and the gains to rural income per capita are likewise small. Moreover, an important difference between the apparent benefits of SPs is highlighted when they are considered for one country alone and when they are made available to all WTO members. The benefits to agriculture in China (and other countries) from increases in protection resulting from SPs are typically offset when these flexibilities are made available to all countries. While there are some positive benefits for certain vulnerable groups in society (in China), we show that there are adverse effects on equity and the impacts differ largely among regions.