非利息收入和银行规模对其风险的影响——基于中国16家上市银行的实证分析

利用2003—2012年中国16家上市商业银行的面板数据,对其非利息收入和规模与其所承担风险的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:中国商业银行的非利息收入与银行风险并不显著关联,其原因可能在于中国商业银行的非利息收入与净利息收入高度相关;银行规模与银行风险之间的关系曲线呈U形。提出:中国商业银行应发展和创新非利息收入业务以降低对利息收入业务的依赖;中国政府监管部门应适当限制商业银行的规模扩张。     

The impact of foreign capital on the Chinese banking market

In China, the foreign capital share of banks was restricted to 25% until 2006. Does such a relatively low share of foreign capital have any impact on the banking sector? In this paper, we use panel data on 19 major banks during 1996–2004 to shed light on the impact of foreign capital participation on the Chinese banking industry. We find that although the operating performance of foreign-owned banks is basically worse than that of domestic banks, as the market share of foreign-owned banks rises, they improve. For domestic banks, non-interest income decreases, while interest income increases. Therefore, the net effect of the foreign-owned banks' share on the profitability of domestic banks is small.     

Asset quality,non-interest income,and bank profitability: Evidence from Indian banks

This paper investigates whether a shift toward non-interest income activities improves the profitability of Indian banks and, if so, how it varies across ownership groups and banks with different asset qualities. Our findings show that higher share of non-interest income yields higher profits and risk-adjusted profits; in particular when banks are involved in more trading activities. The results indicate that private foreign banks earn more risk-adjusted profits compared to public sector and private domestic banks. Furthermore, we also find that income diversification benefits more to the banks that have lower asset quality compared to the banks that have higher asset quality. The findings are insensitive to dynamic panel data estimations and alternative sample specification. The results of this paper provide valuable insights for policymakers, and conclude that ensuring diversification activities enhances bank profitability, in particular for the banks that have lower asset quality.     

Profit strategy of Greek banks: cross-subsidization and diversification versus complementarity

This study analyses the profit strategy employed by banks in Greece using dynamic panel data techniques and a data set which includes proprietary supervisory data covering the whole Greek commercial banking system from 2004 to 2011. We provide evidence that banks use interest- and non-interest income (non-II) as substitutes rather than complements, with non-II representing an indirect competition instrument by the more efficient banks used in place of direct competition with their peers through prices on loans and deposits. This behaviour is explained by further decomposing the non-II into the relatively stable fees component and the volatile trading income. Moreover, we provide evidence that the net-interest income is primarily affected by the banks’ market power and their operating costs, while more efficient banks exploit their core deposit base to lever their non-II. Finally, macroeconomic developments affect both income components, which are found to be procyclical with respect to economic activity. In particular, the two income components are affected differently from inflation implying that non-II provides a natural hedge against adverse effects from deflation on interest income.     

从资产组合理论视角审视我国商业银行非利息收入的波动性

利用资产组合理论对我国12家商业银行1999年~2006年期间的样本数据进行分析,发现非利息收入存在较强的波动现象。一旦多样化收益锐减或者消失,非利息收入较强的波动性必然加剧整体收入水平的波动幅度,不利于商业银行的稳健经营。     

我国上市商业银行非利息收入业务分析与对策

本文采用10家上市商业银行2005—2009年度数据,对我国商业银行非利息收入状况、非利息收入构成进行多角度分析,对非利息收入与商业银行盈利能力关系进行实证考察,得出了非利息收入业务对商业银行盈利具有重要影响的结论,最后提出了进一步推进商业银行非利息收入业务发展的对策。本文对于商业银行非利息收入业务的进一步发展具有重要的指导借鉴作用。     

Bank size,competition and risk in the Turkish banking industry

This paper investigates the impact of bank size and competition on earnings volatility and insolvency risk using quarterly data for commercial banks operating in the Turkish banking industry for the period 2002Q1–2012Q2. The main result of the paper indicates that bank size and earnings volatility are negatively related, suggesting that larger banks are less risky. The results also indicate that competition measured by the Boone indicator increases earnings volatility. The results further suggest that higher capitalized banks, banks with a higher share of non-interest income in total income and efficient banks face lower earnings volatility. Finally, insolvency risk measured by Z-score and bank size are positively related, suggesting that larger banks are more stable.     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

外资银行进入对我国银行效率影响的实证分析

本文选取我国银行市场上占主要地位的14家银行1994-2004年的面板数据,就外资银行进入对我国银行业效率影响进行了实证分析.实证结果表明:外资银行的进入使得国内银行的流动性、非利息收入、经营费用和资产收益率降低,并使其资产质量下降,风险增加,但是技术外溢效应以及对国内银行盈利性的影响并不显著.而且,金融业的对外开放对国有银行造成的冲击小于股份制银行.本文还根据实证分析结果,提出相应的政策建议.     

我国商业银行经营收入结构转型研究

我国商业银行经营收入的提高高度依赖于各种形式的利息收入,这种单一、失衡的经营收入结构,导致成本收入比长期居高不下.如果说在实行管制利率的情况下,这样的经营收入结构能够得到维持,财务基础和收入状况不会受到威胁的话,那么在利率市场化改革渐次展开和逐步推进的今天,则正在失去赖以生存的土壤走向尽头.面对利率市场化最终将缩小和收窄商业银行过分仰赖的净利差,进而导致经营收入减少的现实,我国商业银行只有因势而变,努力扩大非利息收入的比重,顺势实现既有经营收入结构的适时转型,才能增强和保持自身的竞争力和可持续发展能力.     

The effects of foreign strategic investors on business models in China’s commercial banks: does ownership structure matter?

Introducing foreign strategic investors (FSIs) is a vital step in the ownership reforms of China’s banking industry. Using China’s data from 1995 to 2014, we employ propensity score matching and difference-in-differences approaches to investigate the effects of FSIs on the business models of Chinese banks, including income structure and funding structure. We find that FSIs significantly influence income structure. The bank’s non-interest income (NII) share significantly rises after introducing FSIs. The higher ownership shares of FSIs are associated with the higher NII share. And the NII share has been increased when FSIs assign directors or senior managers to Chinese banks. We also report that the effects of FSIs on income structure are weaker in state-owned banks than those in other banks, and ownership concentration weakens the links between FSIs and income structure. Finally, this article shows that FSIs have no significant influence on funding structure. These findings will be informative and relevant to both policymakers and practitioners.     

WILL GERMAN BANKS EARN THEIR COST OF CAPITAL?

In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyze the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. However, we show that this decline is alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves. We discuss how these income smoothing tools will provide a cushion that supports short‐ and medium‐term adjustments through a buffer effect. (JEL G21, G28)     

Financial deregulation and productivity growth in banking sector: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

This article examines the effects of regulatory reform on productivity growth in the Bangladesh banking industry. We use a unique balanced panel dataset comprising bank-level annual data from the early deregulation year (1984) to the most recent available period (2012) from major commercial banks in Bangladesh. Applying the Färe-Primont index, the paper provides estimates of productivity growth and identifies sources of total factor productivity (TFP) change. Empirical results show the sample banks have experienced positive TFP change after the financial deregulation. On average, TFP growth is higher in private banks than their public sector counterparts in the post-reform period. In addition, the decomposition analysis shows technological progress is the main driver of productivity change. Similar results are obtained by using the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Thus, empirical results remain robust irrespective of the methodology used. The regression analysis finds a positive technical change in the first stage of the reform program, i.e. during the transition period, as leading banks employ advanced technology to compete with potential new entrants. The result also shows that the banking industry still remains concentrated within the state-owned banks.     

Product diversification and bank risk: evidence from South Asian banking institutions

ABSTRACT

We investigate whether the product diversification activities of South Asian banking institutions have led to an increase or decrease in their solvency and profit risks. Using the data of five countries – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – for the period 2000–2016, we analyse the effect of both income and assets diversification activities on the Z-score and SDs of ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE Return on Equity). Among income diversification activities, securities trading income has a significant positive influence on bank risk while other categories have no influence. With respect to assets diversification, non-interest-bearing assets and loans given to government were found to have a significant positive influence on bank risk, while mortgage loans and non-classified loans have opposite influences. However, the impacts of securities trading income and loans given to the government are mainly confined to private sector banks and state-owned banks, respectively. We also uncover some country-specific diversification influences on the above relationships.     

How competitive is the Syrian banking sector? Empirical evidence from ‘pre/post’ war Syria

This paper investigates the degree of market power in the Syrian banking sector over the period 2005–2016 where research on competitive conditions does not exist. The degree of competitiveness is assessed based on the revenue elasticity to input prices approach and is related to a set of market indicators. To test whether the Syrian crisis has altered the competitive conditions over the years of the sample, I divide the full sample into two subsamples, namely the pre-crisis years (2005–2012) and the crisis years (2013–2016). The results suggest that banks in Syria earn their interest and total revenue under conditions of monopoly. I find that the trend of market structure—characterized by a monopoly—in the pre-crisis years continues over crisis years. My findings provide robust evidence that a collusive behaviour among banks is in operation in the banking sector of Syria. The difficult penetration into/exit from the market has led to the existence of a profit-curb mechanism for the Syrian banks, hence, an upward shift in the marginal cost curve will be associated with a reduction in revenue as a result of the optimal condition for these banks which act as monopolists.     

Optimal mixed taxation,credit constraints,and the timing of income tax reporting

We study optimal income and commodity tax policy with credit‐constrained low‐income households. Workers receive an even flow of income during the tax year, but report their incomes and make tax payments (receive transfers) at the end of the year. They spend their disposable income on multiple commodities over the year. We show that differentiated subsidies on commodities can be optimal even if the Atkinson–Stiglitz Theorem conditions apply. When the optimal policy leaves low‐income households with binding credit constraints, it may be optimal to subsidize differentially the good that they consume in higher proportion. Uniform subsidies would also relax the credit constraint, but would be more costly to the government since they would equally benefit unconstrained households. Numerical examples suggest that commodity tax differentiation increases with basic needs and with the interest rate at which government borrows.     

Financial liberalization and bank efficiency: a comparative analysis of India and Pakistan

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the evolution of the technical efficiency of commercial banks in India and Pakistan during 1988–1998, a period characterized by far-reaching changes in the banking industry brought about by financial liberalization. Data Envelopment Analysis is applied to two alternative input–output specifications to measure technical efficiency, and to decompose technical efficiency into its two components, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. The consistency of the estimated efficiency scores are checked by examining their relationship with three traditional non-frontier measures of bank performance. In addition, the relationship between bank size and technical efficiency is examined. It is found that the overall technical efficiency of the banking industry of both countries improved gradually over the years, especially after 1995. Unlike public sector banks in India, public sector banks in Pakistan witnessed improvement in scale efficiency only. It is also found that banks are relatively more efficient in generating earning assets than in generating income. This is attributed to the presence of high non-performing loans. In addition, it is found that the gap between the pure technical efficiency of different size groups has declined over the years.     

Desperately seeking cash: Evidence from bank output measurement

We examine the impact of a “near-zero” interest rate policy on bank output. Specifically, we document the existence of negative banking output on deposits for French banks from 2009. We show a structural break in banks' long run interest rate pass-through that explains this change in their business model during the 2003–2012 period. Since the crisis, banks are desperately seeking cash, and deposits have become a cost center. This is due to the new monetary policy and reveals banks' adaptation to the new banking regulation on liquidity. This new environment raises questions about banks' increasing exposure to interest rate risk and shows the necessity of coordinating monetary and regulatory policies.     

Banking efficiency in transition economies

An increasing share of the banking sector is controlled by foreign capital in the majority of transition countries. To analyse the effects of this trend on the performance of the banking sector in these countries, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the performance of foreign‐owned and domestic‐owned banks operating in the Czech Republic and Poland. We use the stochastic frontier approach to compute cost efficiency scores. Following Mester (1996 ), financial capital is included in the cost frontier model to control for risk preferences. Our finding is that on average foreign‐owned banks are more efficient than domestic‐owned banks. We conclude, however, that this advantage does not result from differences in the scale of operations or the structure of activities.     

Economic Growth and The Expanding Export Sector: China 1952–1985

In this paper Granger's test is employed to examine the causal relationship between the size of the export sector and national income per capita (as well as their respective growth rates) for China for the period 1952–1985. Our empirical results favour a bi-directional causal sequence between these two variables. However, these findings disappear when a similar test is used for the sub-period 1952–1978. The difference in results between these two sample periods points to a change in causal relation after 1978 which coincides with the adoption of an “outward looking” strategy by the Chinese government in that same year. [124]