The effect of restatements on trading volume reactions to earnings announcements

This paper examines whether restatements affect trading volume reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. It closely follows the theoretical model developed by Kim and Verrecchia (J Account Econ 24:395–419, 1997) that decomposes the trading volume reactions around earnings announcements into the effects of pre-disclosure and event-period private information, and examines whether restatements change the trading volume reactions to earnings announcements in the post-restatement period. We find that restatements increase the degree of differential event-period information, leading to more divergent interpretation of earnings announcements subsequent to restatements. We also find that investors have less differential pre-disclosure private information in the post-restatement period, consistent with the view that investors’ beliefs converge when facing higher uncertainty in the information environment. Finally, focusing on irregularity restatement firms, we document that the effect of restatements on trading volume is more pronounced for firms announcing restatements after the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act and after dismissing auditors and experiencing executive turnover. Overall, these results indicate that restatements affect investors’ behavior in forming judgments regarding earnings announcements.     

Insider trading,future earnings,and post-earnings announcement drift

This paper examines the association between insider trading prior to quarterly earnings announcements and the magnitude of the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). We conjecture and find that insider trades reflect insiders’ private information about the persistence of earnings news. Thus, insider trades can help investors better understand and incorporate the time-series properties of quarterly earnings into stock prices in a timely and unbiased manner, thereby mitigating PEAD. As predicted, PEAD is significantly lower when earnings announcements are preceded by insider trading. The reduction in PEAD is driven by contradictory insider trades (i.e., net buys before large negative earnings news or net sells before large positive earnings news) and is more pronounced in the presence of more sophisticated market participants. Consistent with investors extracting and trading on insiders’ private information, pre-announcement insider trading is associated with smaller market reactions to future earnings news in each of the four subsequent quarters. Overall, our findings indicate insider trading contributes to stock price efficiency by conveying insiders’ private information about future earnings and especially the persistence of earnings news.     

Rumors and pre-announcement trading: why sell target stocks before acquisition announcements?

We track trading activity in the days preceding acquisition announcements for target firms and find that abnormally high trading volume precedes significant price movement. Using additional intraday data, we find increased active-selling in target stocks before acquisition announcements that offsets increased active-buying. This is unexpected because sellers often lose money when an acquisition is announced. After ruling out alternative explanations, we find evidence that sellers are rational investors who trade on the market??s perceived overreaction to takeover rumors. While sellers lose money when a rumor precedes an actual announcement, in most cases rumors fail to materialize into public announcements. We provide evidence that the significant pre-announcement volume we document reflects the market??s processing of highly uncertain information in takeover rumors.     

Options trading volume and stock price response to earnings announcements

We examine the effect of options trading volume on the stock price response to earnings announcements over the period 1996–2007. Contrary to previous studies, we find no significant difference in the immediate stock price response to earnings information announcements in samples split between firms with listed options and firms without listed options. However, within the sample of firms with listed options stratified by options volume, we find that higher options trading volume reduces the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements. This conforms with evidence that stock prices of high options trading volume firms have anticipated and pre-empted some earnings information in the pre-announcement period. We also find that higher abnormal options trading volume around earnings announcements hastens the stock price adjustment to earnings news and reduces post-earnings announcement drift.     

Trading Volume, Information Asymmetry, and Timing Information

This paper investigates trading volume before scheduled and unscheduled corporate announcements to explore how traders respond to private information. I show that cumulative trading volume decreases inversely to information asymmetry prior to scheduled announcements, while the opposite relation holds for volume after the announcement. In contrast, trading volume before unscheduled announcements increases dramatically and shows little relation to proxies for information asymmetry. I investigate the behavior of market makers and find that they act appropriately by increasing price sensitivity before all announcements, implying that they extract timing information from their order books.     

Insider trading in takeover targets

We examine open market stock trades by registered insiders in about 3700 targets of takeovers announced during 1988–2006 and in a control sample of non-targets, both during an ‘informed’ and a control period. Using difference-in-differences regressions of several insider trading measures, we find no evidence that insiders increase their purchases before takeover announcements; instead, they decrease them. But while insiders reduce their purchases below normal levels, they reduce their sales even more, thus increasing their net purchases. This ‘passive’ insider trading holds for each of the five insider groups we examine, for all three measures of net purchases, and is more pronounced in certain sub-samples with less uncertainty about takeover completion, such as friendly deals, and deals with a single bidder, domestic acquirer, or less regulated target. The magnitude of the increase in the dollar value of net purchases is quite substantial, about 50% relative to their usual levels, for targets' officers and directors in the six-month pre-announcement period. Our finding of widespread profitable passive trading by target insiders during takeover negotiations points to the limits of insider trading regulation. Finally, our finding that registered insiders of target firms largely refrain from profitable active trading before takeover announcements contrasts with prior findings that insiders engage in such trading before announcements of other important corporate events, and points to the effectiveness of private over public enforcement of insider trading regulations.     

Information of Unusual Trading Volume

This article investigates the information content of stock unusual trading volume from the aspect of firm fundamental information revealed by both earnings formal announcements and preannouncements. By using the stock market data of China from the second quarter of 2003 to the end of 2015, this article provides evidence that, in general, stocks that experience unusually low trading volume over the week prior to earnings announcements have more unfavorable earnings surprises. However, because of the feature of mandatory pre-disclosure policy in China, this article further finds that the relation between unusually low trading volume and unfavorable earnings surprises only exists in the stocks without earnings preannouncements, because fundamental information is incorporated in the stock prices timely around preannouncements date. In addition, unusually low trading volume signals negative fundamental changes revealed by preannouncements, and this effect is more pronounced among stocks with higher short-selling constraints, but unusually high trading volume is value-irrelevant.     

Reactions of the London Stock Exchange to Company Trading Statement Announcements

Using event study methodology, we examine market reactions to nearly 2,000 trading statements during the period 1995‐2001. We find that profit warnings outnumber upgrades by 50%, and, in line with previous US studies, we find that market reaction to the actual announcements is considerably greater for profit warnings than for upgrades.Sub-samples demonstrate significant market reaction to profit warnings for all sizecontrolled portfolios, but that reaction to the announcements is greatest for small companies.Examination of pre- and post-announcement CARs shows no pre-announcement market anticipation of the announcements.Post-announcement there is a significant positive abnormal return on the day after the announcement of bad news for the small company subsample.Other post-announcement results are small and insignificant.Trading volume results are consistent with this picture. Finally, when the trading statements are examined for news on turnover and margin changes, we find that the market reaction to margin changes is greater than market reaction to turnover changes.     

Strategic insider trading around earnings announcements in Australia

This paper tests, within the Australian setting, whether directors strategically time trades in their own firms, around earnings announcements, in the context of impediments to trading in the immediately preceding period. I show that both signed and unsigned trade activity are insignificantly different from zero in the preceding period, and significantly negative and positive after the event. Further, directors in Australia significantly sell following positive earnings news, and buy after negative news, providing evidence of ‘indirect’ trading. Directors’ trades in the longer-term pre-announcement period are also negatively related to the news content sentiment, contrary to expectation. Finally, I find evidence of positive autocorrelation between directors’ trades over the longer-term past, and those executed after earnings announcements, which, in the absence of the ‘short-swing’ rule in Australia, casts doubt over short-term strategic insider trading, more generally.     

The Impact of Information Release on Stock Price Volatility and Trading Volume: The Rights Offering Case

This paper examines whether information released via rights offering announcements induces changes in price volatility and trading volume of underlying stock. The results of this paper provide support for the release of new information via offering announcements and evidence of its effects on price volatility and volume of underlying stock. Specifically, utilization of the announced information by investors is evidenced by greater trading volume following the announcement date than during the pre-announcement period. We interpret this result to mean that informedness dominates consensus. However, stock price volatility decreased from the pre-announcement period to the post-expiration period of rights offerings.     

Relation Between Predisclosure Information Asymmetry and Trading Volume Reaction Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the effects of differences in predisclosure information asymmetry on trading volume reaction during quarterly earnings announcements. The analyses show that trading volume reaction to quarterly earnings announcements is positively related to the level of predisclosure information asymmetry and to the magnitude of the price reaction to the announcements. These results are consistent with Kim and Verrecchia's (1991a) theoretical trading volume proposition, and with Atiase and Bamber's (1994) tests of the proposition based on annual earnings announcements. This study also provides evidence on the relation of predisclosure information asymmetry and trading volume before and after quarterly earnings announcements.     

Odd lot trading and earnings announcements

This study investigates odd lot trading, both trades and orders, around quarterly earnings announcements to determine whether odd lot traders are informed regarding the information contained in earnings announcements. We find pre-announcement odd lot order imbalances are not positively correlated with post-announcement returns and odd lot traders do not earn excess returns. Portfolios long stocks highly bought by odd lot traders in the pre-announcement period and short stocks highly sold by odd lot traders do not outperform the market. We conclude that odd lot traders are not in possession of earnings announcement information prior to its release to the public.     

Discount rate changes,stock market returns,volatility, and trading volume: Evidence from intraday data and implications for market efficiency

We examine the effect of discount rate changes on stock market returns, volatility, and trading volume using intraday data. Equity returns generally respond negatively and significantly to the unexpected announcements; however, the effect of expected changes on equity returns is insignificant. Furthermore, our results indicate that equity prices respond to announcements within the trading period/hour after the information release. An indication of a return reversal is too small to cover the full transaction costs. Unexpected discount rate changes also contribute to higher market volatility although the volatility is short-lived. Similarly, unexpected changes in discount rates induce larger trading volume while expected changes do not. Abnormal trading volume occurs only in period t. Our results also support the notion that unexpected changes in the discount rates impact market returns irrespective of the Federal Reserve operating procedures.     

Intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Australian evidence

This paper examines intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic information announcements on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Prior literature analysing intraday price behaviour around announcements is extended to trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads. The analysis of price volatility, trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads indicates that the majority of adjustment to new information occurs rapidly, within 240 seconds of the scheduled time for major announcements, with some evidence of abnormal activity prior to announcements. Analysis of quoted bid–ask spreads suggests that they significantly widen in the 20 seconds prior to announcements and remain significantly wider for 30 seconds following announcements. The increase in quoted spreads is related to both expected and unexpected volatility, implying that market participants increase quoted spreads around information announcements as a consequence of adverse selection costs.     

Informed trading before positive vs. negative earnings surprises

This paper investigates whether institutional investors trade profitably around the announcements of positive or negative earnings surprises. Using Korean data over the period of 2001–2010, we find that information asymmetry is larger before negative earnings surprises (earnings shock) among investors and that the trading volume decreases only before earnings shock announcements due to the severe information asymmetry. We also find that institutions sell their stocks prior to earnings shock announcements whereas individual and foreign investors do not anticipate bad news. Finally, we find that institutional trade imbalance is positively related to the post-announcement abnormal returns of negative events. This study complements and extends prior literature on informed trading around earnings announcements by documenting evidence that domestic institutions exploit their superior information around particularly earnings shock announcements.     

O/S: The relative trading activity in options and stock

Relatively little is known about the trading volume in derivatives relative to the volume in underlying stocks. We study the time-series properties and the determinants of the options/stock trading volume ratio (O/S) using a comprehensive cross-section and time-series of data on equities and their listed options. O/S is related to many intuitive determinants such as delta and trading costs, and it also varies with institutional holdings, analyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion. O/S is higher around earnings announcements, suggesting increased trading in the options market. Further, post-announcement absolute returns are positively related to pre-announcement O/S, which suggests that at least part of the pre-announcement options trading is informed.     

Trading volume in options and common stock around quarterly earnings announcements

This study examines trading in call and put options around quarterly earnings announcements and investigates whether the existence of these options affects the common stock trading volume response to these announcements. We find that the options trading volume reaction to earnings announcements is larger than the corresponding reaction in common stock. Consistent with the idea that options provide an alternative vehicle for trading on information, the existence of these options lowers the level of trading in common stock. Options also appear to offer investors an alternative method of taking short positions, as shown by the symmetric stock market trading volume reaction to good versus bad news for firms with listed options. In contrast, firms without listed options exhibit a larger trading volume response to good news than to bad news of similar magnitude.     

Option trading: Information or differences of opinion?

This paper investigates the motive of option trading. We show that option trading is mostly driven by differences of opinion, a finding different from the current literature that attempts to attribute option trading to information asymmetry. Our conclusion is based on three pieces of empirical evidence. First, option trading around earnings announcements is speculative in nature and mostly dominated by small, retail investors. Second, around earnings announcements, the pre-announcement abnormal turnovers of options seem to predict the post-announcement abnormal stock returns. However, once we control for the pre-announcement stock returns, the predictability completely disappears, implying that option traders simply take cues from the stock market and turn around to speculate in the options market. Third, cross-section and time-series regressions reveal that option trading is also significantly explained by differences of opinion. While informed trading is present in stocks, it is not detected in options.     

Merger Announcements and Trading

We test whether an increase either in informed trades or in large liquidity trades leads to greater correlation of trading volume across markets. We confirm that both trading volume and positive returns of target companies are abnormally high before merger announcements. We find a statistically significant increase in the correlation between New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq/regional trading volume before merger announcements. Furthermore, after merger announcements, we find evidence of both large liquidity trading and a statistically significant increase in the correlation of trading volume across markets.     

货币政策公告、政策不确定性及股票市场的预公告溢价效应——来自中国市场的证据

中国人民银行周期性发布的货币政策相关公告为市场判断货币政策走向提供重要信息。较于实体经济反馈政策信息具有滞后性,股票市场是否在货币政策公告期内及时对政策消息做出反应,即存在公告效应？股票价格是否体现预期货币政策调整带来的不确定性？本文基于2011-2017年A股市场数据,研究我国股票市场在我国货币政策相关公告发布前后几日这一较短窗口区间内的市场反应。结果表明,股市指数在发布货币供应量指标的公告前几天内会出现显著为正的风险溢价,而在指标发布后溢价并不显著,这一现象我们称之为货币政策相关公告的“预公告溢价效应”。本文发现,预公告溢价的产生并非由于市场提前预期到货币政策的走向,而是来源于投资者预先获得了对政策不确定性的溢价补偿。本文进一步就防范系统性风险、从数量型货币政策工具向价格型转变等问题提出了相关政策建议。