Volatility Forecasting and Time‐varying Variance Risk Premiums in Grains Commodity Markets

In this paper we examine empirically the predictive power of model‐free option‐implied variance and skewness in wheat, maize and soybeans derivative markets. We find that option‐implied risk‐neutral variance outperforms historical variance as a predictor of future realised variance for these three commodities. In addition, we find that risk‐neutral option‐implied skewness significantly improves variance forecasting when added in the information variable set. Variance risk premia add significant predictive power when included as an additional factor for predicting future commodity returns.     

东北粮食主产区农村土地承包经营权规模化流转定价机制研究—— 以黑龙江省克山县为例

研究目的:通过建立农村土地承包经营权规模化流转定价机制,促进农村土地承包经营权流转市场完善,为合理确定农村土地承包经营权规模流转价格提供科学依据。研究方法:区间价格模型,Hurwicz准则,层次分析法,收益现值法。研究结果 :克山县农村土地承包经营权规模流转的价格区间为6380元/hm~2到9155元/hm~2;通过对比供需双方土地流转意愿的影响因素,计算得土地流转价格系数为0.498;在价格区间内引入Hurwicz准则,测算土地承包经营权规模流转价格是可行的。研究结论:以村集体经济组织为中介代理人、以维护流转双方利益为准则的土地承包经营权规模化流转定价机制不仅体现利润分享原则,也丰富了马克思地租地价理论的实践应用,符合赋予农民更多财产权利、拓宽农民财产性收入的政策改革方向。     

退耕还林工程对农业生产影响的经济分析——退耕农户生计外推分析

文章分析了退耕还林对黄河流域农业生产的影响。研究结果发现,在退耕地上产品产出和价格等高折现率情况下,参与工程农户家庭收入的净现值依旧为正值,这表明退耕还林工程对黄河流域农业生产产生积极的影响,也说明只要退耕农户权益得到保护,就不会出现大面积复耕反弹现象。     

Replacement of Agricultural Price Supports by Area Payments in the European Union and the Effects on Pesticide Use

This article determines the contribution of recent European Union agricultural policy reforms on the use of pesticides. Our theoretical model extends the multioutput generalization of the Lichtenberg–Zilberman damage control technology model developed by Chambers and Lichtenberg . Our empirical analysis uses farm-level data for a sample of French farms. Results suggest that price effects on the use of pesticides are always more elastic than area payment effects. This indicates that policy reforms consisting of a reduction in price supports in favor of area payments, may reduce application of crop protection inputs. Such policy changes, which represent a certain degree of decoupling, took place under the 1992 Common Agricultural Policy reforms.     

Farmers' participation in the Income Stabilisation Tool: Evidence from the apple sector in Italy

The Income Stabilisation Tool (IST), which was recently added to the European Common Agricultural Policy's risk management toolkit, is a mutual fund that aims at stabilising farmers' income. We investigate the drivers of farmers' participation in an IST for the apple sector in the Autonomous Province of Trento in Italy, which is the only region that has operationalised the IST in the European Union. Our analysis is based on a theoretical framework based on the Unified Theory of Use and Acceptance of Technology. Using a three-year panel dataset of 3268 farm households, we estimated a logit model with the Mundlak–Chamberlain procedure. Our results show that higher crop production specialisation, associated with greater risk exposure, favours participation in the IST. Similarly, previous experience with mutual funds increases the acceptance of the IST. The analysis also provides evidence of how the new tool interacts with existing on-farm protection strategies, leading to a discussion of the presence of adverse and advantageous selection effects. Our paper sheds light on farmers' acceptance of newly implemented sector-specific ISTs and generates better knowledge and understanding of lock-ins and levers that influence participation in such schemes, which are relevant to other EU regions or member states that are considering the introduction of ISTs.     

汉唐间北方农业技术的南传及在江南地区的本土化发展

中国传统的农业技术体系率先成熟于秦汉时期,是以北方旱作农业为基础所形成的,所以具有一定的地域性特征。汉唐间,伴随中央政权对江南地区的次第开发,传统农业技术的诸多元素也源源进入江南地区,催生了稻作农业技术体系的形成,对江南地区经济与社会发展产生了积极影响;回顾这一历史过程我们亦不难发现,源自于北方地区的传统农业技术不是立竿见影地在江南地区产生普遍影响,而是存在一个不断本土化的过程,至唐代,这一过程大体完成,因此也最终引发了江南经济的真正的繁荣。