THE EFFECTS OF THE TOBACCO PRODUCTS CONTROL AMENDMENT ACT OF 1999 ON RESTAURANT REVENUES IN SOUTH AFRICA: A PANEL DATA APPROACH

Prior to the implementation of this legislation the restaurant industry lobbied that a full‐scale ban would severely hurt business. Their lobbying resulted in a restrictive restaurant smoking policy rather than a full‐scale ban. Nevertheless the industry argued that this would still severely hurt business citing international evidence in support. The objective of this paper is to investigate the change in restaurant revenues after the implementation of a public smoking ban in South Africa. We use a fixed effects panel model to explore the response of restaurant revenues to the imposition of the ban. Provincial data is used over the period 1995 to 2003 and VAT receipts are used as a proxy of restaurant turnover. We conclude that restrictive restaurant smoking policies have not had a negative effect on restaurant revenue, indicating that claims of countrywide restaurant business declines under such a policy are unwarranted.     

The Intergenerational Consequences of Tobacco Policy: A Review of Policy's Influence on Maternal Smoking and Child Health

The response of pregnant women to tobacco policy is of particular interest due to these women being in a unique position to pass health capital to the next generation. By comparing estimates in the literature, we highlight that while pregnant women are responsive to taxes and taxes improve child health, their responsiveness has declined over time. We show that these trends reflect a compositional change; specifically, the least addicted smokers quit in the 1990s, leaving the pool of smoking mothers to be dominated by less price elastic smokers. Reviewing the literature on other tobacco policies, we show that a state‐level U.S. smoking ban has roughly three times the effect on pregnant women of a 10% increase in prices using elasticity estimates from more recent periods. Throughout this review, we identify areas for improvement in the literature and offer a number of ideas for future research projects.     

创业板网下配售解禁对股价的影响

网下配售股的解禁增加了股票的供给,对股价向下的压力,给投资者带来损失,本文通过对52家创业板公司52次解禁事件的数据研究发现:在52家解禁公司中呈负股价效应的为39家,网下申购倍数、发行市盈率、上市公司利润增长率、解禁日换手率,与解禁日超额收益率正相关,其中影响最大的是解禁日换手率,并针对这个问题进行了深入分析,提出了相应的政策建议。     

For Economic Advantage or Something Else? A Case for Racial Identification Switching

The identity choices people take on serve as a filter for viewing the world. It is believed that race identity formation is in part a response to economic and social incentives. Using NELS 1988 dataset we evaluate at the individual level factors that affect changes in self-reported racial identity. We find that being multiracial, living in a non-affirmative action ban state, and relative income/education measures within race groups have an effect on racial identity switching. We find strong evidence that the social-political environments surrounding an affirmative action ban alters the likelihood that an individual will change race. Our results suggest that social factors when present dominate economic incentives to take on a different racial identity.     

大小非解禁和股价波动关系的实证分析

本文基于2007年1月至2011年3月的月度时间序列样本,构建了经典的多元回归模型,对"大小非"解禁与股价走势之间的关系进行了分阶段实证研究。计量结果表明,国内国际经济形势、货币政策以及预期等因素才是影响我国股价走势变化的最主要因素,而"大小非"解禁对股价走势的影响程度则要受到我国股市所处行情阶段的限制。     

上岸

根据2017年中央1号文件"率先在长江流域水生生物保护区实现全面禁捕"的要求,重庆启动了先期试点,并于2018年持续推动退捕禁渔。重庆市农业农村委渔业处的数据显示,长江流域重庆段重点水域禁捕工作取得积极成效,截至目前,重庆已有2128艘渔船退捕,其中,保护区1681艘渔船已全部完成退捕工作。     

The Effect of Public Policies and Prices on Youth Smoking

This article empirically tests the effects of various tobacco control measures on youth cigarette demand using a 1996 nationally representative survey among U.S. high school students. Our measures of public policies allow more precise estimates of their impact compared to previous studies. The two-part model corrects for heteroscedasticity and features a novel approach to evaluating youth access laws based on actual compliance rates. This resolves the difficulty of measuring their active enforcement, the lack of which is frequently blamed for insignificant findings with respect to their effectiveness. We found youth access laws to have a negative effect on smoking probability. Relatively strong clean indoor air laws may also reduce the probability of smoking. The presence of all tobacco control policies combined and higher cigarette prices lower both smoking participation and smoking intensity. The teen-specific cigarette price has a larger impact on cigarette demand than commonly tested state average price.     

Evading the ‘Taint of Usury’: The usury prohibition as a barrier to entry

The development of capital markets in medieval Europe was shaped for centuries by the religious ban on lending money at interest. This paper examines how this prohibition developed as the outcome of strategic behavior by religious, commercial and political elites. A model is developed to analyze this hypothesis and to examine how the usury prohibition developed over time. It suggests that an important reason for the persistence of the ban was that it created a barrier to entry that enabled secular rulers, the Church, and a small number of merchant-bankers to earn monopoly rents.     

Smoking and wage rates – Evidence from Japanese panel data

This paper analyzes smoking behavior and its effects on wage rate. It is widely known that smoking has negative health effects and to discourage the practice, governments frequently implement policies such as tax increases and restrictions on public smoking. To evaluate these policies, it is necessary to understand the economic benefits and costs of reducing the number of smokers. We conduct a panel data analysis while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and show that smoking is not the main factor causing observed wage differentials between smokers and non-smokers in Japan.As for the relationship between smoking and wages, we find that male smokers receive lower hourly wages than male nonsmokers. Smoking behavior generally depends on environmental, congenital, or social factors. These factors, however, do not only affect smoking behavior but also the wages of these individuals. To isolate the effect of smoking on wages, we control for individual heterogeneity using panel data to verify the existence of such an effect.Using tax change as an instrumental variable in the fixed effects model and several robustness checks, the results show that smoking has no statistically significant effect on wage rate. This suggests that smoking does not directly affect wages; rather, unobserved individual heterogeneity (other factors influencing both smoking and wages) leads to wage differences between smokers and nonsmokers. Nevertheless, smoking can affect wages in the long run through health problems. The nine-year panel data used in this research, however, is insufficient to capture the long-term indirect health effects. Thus, future research should consider analyzing indirect health effects using panel data spread across a wider time frame.     

基于“碳金融”视角的商业银行中间业务创新研究

商业银行要全面提升综合竞争力,必须改变以传统存贷业务为主的发展模式,积极探索中间业务创新,而碳金融市场蕴含的巨大潜力为商业银行中间业务创新提供了良好契机。文章针对商业银行碳金融中间业务创新发展中面临的诸多阻碍因素,提出了要加快金融体制改革、改善金融生态环境、完善银行业自身建设的解决对策。     

The Indonesian Log Export Ban: An Estimation of Foregone Export Earnings

The paper examines the economic impact of the Indonesian phased log export ban from 1981 to 1986, by means of a counterfactual analysis which permits the calculation of hypothetical export revenues under the assumption that the log export ban was not implemented. A graphic and numeric presentation of the analysis is provided. The present value of the range of estimated cumulative losses is USS (1980) 1.9 billion to $3.1 billion.     

Gun lobbies and gun control: Senate voting patterns on the Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban

This paper uses an econometric model to analyze the political and economic factors affecting the Senate voting patterns on the 1993 Brady Bill and the assault weapons ban. Results of a logit estimation procedure support the hypothesis that the political activities and presence of the National Rifle Association (measured as relative campaign contributions and membership) had a significant impact on the voting patterns by Senators on both bills.     

Inflation targeting and inflation persistence in Asia–Pacific

Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998, a number of regional central banks adopted inflation targeting. While it is possible for the average inflation rate to be close to target, deviations of inflation could nevertheless be large and protracted. We therefore explore how successful this framework has been by looking at the persistence of inflation, as measured by the sum of the coefficients in an autoregressive model for inflation, using a median unbiased estimator and bootstrapped confidence bands. We find that persistence tends to decline following the adoption of inflation targeting. The speed by which persistence falls varies across countries. Interestingly, the economies not adopting inflation targeting show a smaller decline in persistence. Overall, we conclude that inflation targeting has performed well in Asia.     

Israel’s open-secret trade

This paper uncovers and quantifies Israel’s exports to countries that ban trade with Israel. Israel exported a total of $6.4 billion worth of merchandise to boycott countries between 1962 and 2012, and most of this trade is illicit, i.e. not recorded by the importers. We find that electronic exports to Malaysia account for the lion’s share of this trade but it also includes a wide array of products from footwear to fruit and vegetables. Our estimates suggest Israel’s exports to these countries would be 10 times larger without the boycott. On top of providing further evidence on the unintended consequences of unilateral trade bans, this paper provides a case study on the role of politics in international trade.     

The effects of the social norm on cigarette consumption: Evidence from Japan using panel data

Using Japan's prefecture-level panel data from 1989 to 2001, this paper examines the influence of the social norm on a person's smoking behavior when the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is taken into account. The key findings through a dynamic panel model controlling for unobserved prefecture-specific fixed effects are as follows: (1) influence from others is stronger when people live more closely and cohesively. A tightly knit society results in a reduction of smoking through smoking-related interaction. (2) Smoking and drinking have a complementary relationship: greater initial consumption of alcohol results in larger consumption of cigarettes. (3) The complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is attenuated if the cost of committing the annoying conduct (i.e., smoking) is high.Overall, this empirical study provides evidence that the psychological effect of the presence of surrounding people has a direct significant effect upon smoking behavior and, furthermore, that it attenuates the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking, thereby reducing cigarette consumption. These results indicate that not only formal rules but also tacitly formed informal norms are effective deterrents to smoking.     

低碳经济背景下海南省电动汽车购买意向影响因素分析及建议

海南省计划在2030年前禁售燃油车,并实现碳达峰,电动汽车替代燃油车是必经之路,消费者购买电动汽车的意愿直接影响其进程。以探讨海南省电动汽车的购买意愿为目的,利用NVivo整理问卷和访谈信息,基于扎根理论总结出安全担忧、里程焦虑、成本压力3个对购买意愿有负面影响的核心范畴和一个有正向激励作用的核心范畴。分析核心范畴对购买意愿产生影响的机理,根据影响机理为车企、政府和第三方力量提出相应的建议或改进目标参考。     

现代工程项目管理目标体系的构建

目前我国工程项目建设过程中存在着重视工程项目的目标实现而忽视其确立的问题,这已成为危害项目利益相关各方利益的重要问题.其原因部分在于工程项目目标体系的设计与控制缺乏系统观点.文章通过分析工程项目管理目标体系的内容及特点,运用层次分析法建立工程项目目标体系,在此基础上对工程目标进行控制,最终构建一套完整的工程项目目标体系.     

The anti-tobacco movement in the Progressive Era: A case study of direct democracy in Oregon

Little attention has been given to the cigarette bans that were enacted by many states in the late-19th and early-20th century. The recent study by Alston et al. [Explorations in Economic History 39 (2002) 425] represents the only empirical analysis of this issue. Alston et al., as typical for many other studies of historical regulatory movements, rely on legislative vote outcomes. In this article we examine the only occasion when a cigarette ban was put to a popular vote, in Oregon in 1930, and highlight the benefits of studying direct-democratic votes to assess support for regulatory movements. To study the relationship between the anti-cigarette movement and other reform movements of the era, we compare the determinants of support for the cigarette ban with support for an Oregon alcohol prohibition referendum in 1933. Our results suggest that supporters of both reform movements were more likely to be found in counties with higher percentages of women, evangelical Protestants, and rural residents, which contrasts with Alston et al.’s study of state legislative behavior. In addition, greater support for alcohol prohibition in particular was found in counties with a larger percentage of immigrants and, to a lesser extent, more registered Republicans.     

城市社区居家养老的困境及对策思考——以广州为例

面对日益严峻的老龄化形势，广州市积极探索社区居家养老的新型养老模式，成为全国的典范。文章总结广州城市社区居家养老政策实践和运行成效及面临的困境，提出进一步完善城市社区居家养老的对策，以期广州市能够尽快构建完善的社区居家养老之路。     

Smokeless Tobacco Use Following Smoking Bans in Bars

We test for a unique form of compensatory behavior among smokers who wish to continue their nicotine consumption following the smoking bans placed on bars. We find a substantial increase in smokeless tobacco use among smokers, particularly those who drink and are of typical bar‐going age. We also find that everyday smokers, who clearly have the strongest nicotine dependence, are more likely to increase smokeless‐tobacco use than occasional smokers are.