双边贸易成本影响中国农产品出口边际了吗

本文利用UN Comtrade数据库1992-2017年HS-6位农产品贸易数据,测度中国与农产品主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本及中国农产品出口边际,并运用企业异质性理论模型检验双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中国与主要贸易伙伴国双边贸易成本不断下降。(2)中国农产品出口增长主要依赖于集约边际。(3)双边贸易成本对中国农产品出口边际具有显著的负影响,表现为双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际、集约边际均有抑制作用;双边固定贸易成本仅对中国农产品出口扩展边际具有负向影响;双边可变贸易成本对中国农产品出口扩展边际的阻碍作用大于其对中国农产品出口集约边际的阻碍作用。为此,本文就如何降低双边贸易成本、提高农产品扩展边际在农产品出口中的贡献提出了一些针对性的建议。     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

Geographical indication regulation and intra‐trade in the European Union

Protection of indications of geographical origin (GIs) can reduce information asymmetry between producers and consumers, and potentially enhance trade. However, GIs can also possibly divert trade. We rely on panel data about agri‐food trade among the 27 countries of the European Union to investigate these issues using variations of estimators proposed by Head and Mayer ( 2000 ) and Santos Silva and Tenreyro ( 2006 ). Our findings suggest that the protection of GIs creates trade when the importing and exporting countries have GI‐protected products. There is also empirical evidence regarding a trade‐diverting effect when the importing country does not have GIs and a border enlargement effect arising from European GI‐protection.     

中国木质林产品的出口二元边际及影响因素分析

利用联合国商品贸易数据库HS六分位编码,对1996~2014年间中国木质林产品出口的二元边际情况进行分析的结果表明:中国对美国、日本、中国香港、英国等主要贸易伙伴的出口增长来自于集约边际和扩展边际的共同作用。对二元边际的相关影响因素进行实证分析的结果表明:目的地市场规模对集约边际呈正相关关系,但对扩展边际呈现负相关关系;可变贸易成本对二元边际呈现负相关关系;多边阻力对二元边际呈现正相关关系;劳动生产率对二元边际呈现正相关关系;经济危机对集约边际几乎不构成影响,但对扩展边际有明显冲击。基于此,提出调整出口市场结构,发挥扩展边际作用;加快自由贸易进程,逐步减少贸易阻力;加大科研资本投入,提升劳动生产效率等建议。     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

目的 文章基于动态的视角，测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化，对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。方法 基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据，测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数，对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述，并进行聚类分析。结果 （1）从出口动态整体情况看，农产品出口增长迅速，集约边际占据主导，贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看，在出口源地维度，东部省份出口优势明显，空间格局高度集中，近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度，东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地，集聚水平长期下降，原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时，中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似，绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀，东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。结论 为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长，既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长，也要积极扩展新贸易联系；为了优化农产品出口格局，要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新市场，进一步融入农产品出口进程；为了降低出口风险，要采取出口市场多元化战略，避免城市间农产品出口同质化竞争。     

中国制造业出口增长二元边际及影响因素研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据

文章采用CEPII BACI数据库中2003-2018年HS-02-6分位数据,研究中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口二元边际特征及其影响因素。结果发现:中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口主要沿集约边际增长,其平均贡献率在2018年达到77.92%;在沿线六大市场中,对东南亚地区制造业出口集约边际上升趋势明显、扩展边际增长潜力巨大;进口国经济规模与基础设施对集约边际和扩展边际均产生正向影响,可变贸易成本与制度质量有显著负向影响且对扩展边际影响程度更大,固定贸易成本与外部冲击对集约边际影响为负而对扩展边际的影响不显著。需促进制造业产品出口多样化、加强出口策略针对性,并进一步提高贸易便利化水平。     

No Terroir in the Cold? A Note on the Geography of Geographical Indications

Geographical Indications (GIs) are increasingly important instruments of agricultural and food regulations and are growing as contentious issues in trade negotiations and disputes. GIs can improve welfare but they can also be a protectionist instrument. The EU has the most GIs in the world, but they are concentrated in the south of the EU. Even excluding wine, there are seven times more food GIs per capita in the southern EU Member States than in other EU Member States. This note discusses several factors which may explain the geographic concentration of GIs in the south of the EU.     

Blackleg or blackmail? Economics of the Canada–China canola trade dispute

The Chinese government's recent decision to suspend the export licenses of two Canadian grain firms has garnered international attention. The dispute has been portrayed by some as a diplomatic dispute between two countries, and by others as a concern about plant health. We analyze the economics of the dispute, including a simple economic model of international trade in which a large-country importer imposes a targeted import ban on one large-country exporter. The model provides a framework for understanding the economic effects of a trade ban under various market conditions. We also discuss the legal framework and dispute settlement process that would be encountered if the disagreement proceeds to a formal dispute in the World Trade Organization.     

‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’? Impacts of Alternative Post‐Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture

Brexit will have important implications for UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows. We quantify the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of three illustrative scenarios, which capture a broad range of potential trade arrangements: Bespoke Free Trade Deal , WTO Default and Unilateral Trade Liberalisation . It is estimated that the projected market impacts are relatively small if the UK negotiates a Bespoke Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The projected impacts are much greater under the two other scenarios, which capture potential trade arrangements if ‘no deal’ is reached. The high tariffs imposed under the WTO default scenario lead to significant adjustments in trade between the UK and EU‐27, with the impact on the domestic UK market depending on whether the UK is a net importer or a net exporter of the relevant commodity. All sectors experience price and production declines under the trade liberalisation scenario in which the UK unilaterally sets tariffs on imports from both the EU‐27 and the rest of the world to zero; the impacts are particularly severe in the beef and sheep sectors where international competition is very strong.     

The Heterogeneous Effects of Standards on Agricultural Trade Flows

This article uses a theory‐based translog gravity model to investigate the heterogeneous effects of food standards on aggregate agricultural trade. We revisit the ‘standards‐as‐barriers‐to‐trade’ debate with a distinctive twist. In contrast to existing works, we show that standards reduce trade but even more so for countries that trade smaller volumes. Our identification strategy exploits the within‐country variation in specific trade concerns. We confirm that stricter importer standards are indeed trade‐restrictive. However, the estimated trade cost elasticity varies depending on how intensively two countries trade. Specifically, it decreases in magnitude with an increasing import share of the exporter in the importing country's total imports. The reason is simple but intuitive; bigger trading partners find it more profitable to invest in meeting the costs of importer‐specific standards. This work is novel in showing that the standards–trade debate misses out on an important heterogeneity driven by existing import shares. Liberalising non‐tariff measures will favour smaller trading partners more than well‐established ones.     

中国与挪威水产品贸易研究综述

水产品对外贸易发达与否是衡量一个国家或地区渔业经济发展水平的重要标志之一.近年来,我国水产品出口贸易得到长足发展,中国是世界头号渔业大国,2004年,出口量和出口额分别达到242.1万t,69.7亿美元,占世界水产品出口份额的7%,位居第一.中国是世界第一大海产品生产国,渔业产量占世界的1/3,挪威是世界第一大海产品出口国.本文主要就我国水产品进出口贸易的特点,面临的问题,及我国与挪威水产品贸易概况等方面的研究作一个综述.     

Old and new partners: Similarity and competition in the EU foreign agri-food trade

This paper analyses the trade relationships among the EU-15 members and some emerging partners: the NMS, Turkey and China. The EU expansion to include 10 new countries has modified quite remarkably the features of agri-food trade in Europe. Some of the NMS, such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, significantly contribute to the international agri-food trade and, since the beginning of the process of EU accession, they have modified dramatically the exchanges with the EU-15. More recently, other countries such as Turkey and China have established new relationships with the EU. Turkey is a large Mediterranean country and, as a candidate to the EU accession, enjoys a differential treatment in the agri-food trade relationships with the EU. China can be considered as a new international competitor, growing at faster pace after having joined the WTO and increasing its agri-food trade exchanges with the EU. The analysis will focus on the measurement of the similarity of the agri-food exports of Italy and the remaining EU-15 member States with the new partners entering the EU-15 market. It will be carried out with the support of three different indicators: the export structure similarity index (ES), the product similarity index (PSI) and the quality similarity index (QSI), using the Eurostat database with an eight “digit” merchandize disaggregation and with reference only to agri-food exchanges. Results will indicate that there is little similarity, especially when a comparison is made between the exports of the EU-15 countries to the EU market. Moreover, quality remains a crucial factor for Italian and European agri-food products when competing with external products.     

Food Product Acceptance in Foreign Distribution Channels

This article examines some of the factors associated with gaining product acceptance by middlemen in export channels. Our thesis is that a major problem for (potential) exporters is not so much to select, but rather to be selected by middlemen in the target country. If significant differences of opinion occur between exporter and importer regarding the importance of certain product and/or organizational factors, the product acceptance decision may be negative. This study focuses on the opinions of U.S. importers and Dutch exporters of food and beverage products with respect to the final step of the import-export interaction model; the buying decision.     

Short-term impact of food safety standards on agri-product exports: Evidence from Japan's positive list system on Chinese vegetable exports

We examine the short-term impact of the Positive List System (PLS), a strict food safety standard implemented by Japan in 2006, on vegetable exports from China to Japan. By applying a difference-in-difference model to unique monthly export data at the firm-product level, we found that the PLS decreased the probability of Chinese vegetable firms exporting to Japan by 3.4%, and decreased their export quantity and value by 9.7% and 8.6%, respectively. Most of the policy impact is through a decrease in the intensive trade margin (i.e., how much to trade), rather than the extensive trade margin (i.e., whether to trade). We also found that foreign-invested enterprises and smaller enterprises are less affected than non-foreign-invested enterprises and larger enterprises. Our results alleviate the concern that stricter food safety standards may exclude many firms, especially small ones, from the export market.     

The War on Terroir: Geographical Indications as a Transatlantic Trade Conflict

Terroir, the concept of an essential link between location of production and a specific quality attribute, is emerging as a contentious issue in trade negotiations and disputes. This issue is manifest through disputes and disagreements about appropriate protection of ‘geographical indications’ (GIs). This paper explores the differences in approach taken by the EU and the US towards GI protection, and illustrates the nature of the legal and economic arguments. The transatlantic dispute is spreading to other countries through the inclusion of GI protection in regional and bilateral trade pacts. It also has implications for the eventual conclusion of the WTO Doha Round negotiations, as the terroir issue arises in both the agricultural and the Trade‐Related Intellectual Property (TRIPS) agendas, once again pitting the US and EU as protagonists. But there are signs of change in these positions as the GI system in the EU comes under review and producers in the US reconsider the possible advantages of location‐based identifiers. These issues are important in a number of food sectors, and are likely to be persistent. They deserve more attention from practising applied economists than they have yet received.     

The Intensive and Extensive Margins of China's Agricultural Trade

Utilizing the 1995–2013 Harmonized System's six‐digit agricultural product data for China, this study measures the dual margin contribution to export growth in China's agricultural products. Results show that contribution from the intensive margin has reached and been staying at a high level since 2007, providing new insight in explaining the deteriorating terms of trade in China's agricultural products. In light of this, an empirical analysis of the determinants of dual margins indicates that larger trading partners lead to less growth in exports of both new and existing products. Destination countries with higher labor productivities and lower fixed trade costs are China's target markets to convert intensive‐margin‐driven growth into extensive‐margin‐driven growth. In addition, the impact of relative labor productivity and free trade agreements on the intensive margin differs between primary and processed products due to their product characteristics. Au moyen des données à six chiffres du produit agricole pour la Chine provenant du Système harmonisé de 1995–2013, cette étude mesure la double marge de contribution à la croissance, des exportations des produits agricoles chinois. Les résultats démontrent que la contribution provenant de la marge intensive a atteint et demeure élevée depuis 2007, fournissant de nouvelles explications aux termes de l′échange des produits agricoles chinois. Étant donné ces informations, une analyse empirique des déterminants des doubles marges indique que les grands partenaires commerciaux mènent à moins de croissance dans les exportations à la fois de produits nouveaux et existants. La Chine choisit comme cibles les pays de destination avec une productivité élevée de la main‐d'?uvre et de faibles coûts fixes de commerce pour convertir la croissance stimulée par les marges intensives en croissance stimulée par les marges extensives. Qui plus est, l'impact de la productivité relative de la main‐d'?uvre et des accords de libre‐échange sur les marges intensives diffère des produits primaires aux produits transformés en raison des caractéristiques du produit.     

Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR

The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.     

The role of institutional quality on the performance in the export of coconut products

The literature that addresses the role of institutions in bilateral trade is extensive. However, research that links institutional quality to specific products and their different levels of value addition is lacking. In this study, we look into institutional quality, based on three indicators from the World Bank's world governance indicators, and its indicator-specific effects on bilateral coconut trade. In particular, we study coconut products with varying degrees of value addition. We use structural gravity models to measure how institutions affect the trade performance of the top 26 coconut producing countries to the top 15 importing economies over the years 1996–2016. Our results suggest that increased government effectiveness enhances trade of high-value products, whereas better voice and accountability scores decrease trade of coconut products with both levels of value addition. No clear trade effect is observed when two countries are more similar in each of the three indicators. We conclude that each indicator has different trade effects on each of the coconut product categories. We end by giving recommendations that will help to improve the coconut export performance in their respective countries and for future research.     

Potential Impacts of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) on the Fresh Vegetable and Beef Trade

ABSTRACT

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) negotiations influence the global economic position of both the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.). Agricultural issues are an important part of the negotiation. There have been several analyses of the aggregate impacts of a T-TIP agreement. This report analyzes the commodity impacts on trade for fresh vegetables and beef. Vegetables represent the situation where the U.S. is a growing net importer and the EU has substantial potential for expanding exports to the U.S. in this highly competitive marketplace. Beef represents the situation where sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions on hormone use in production have prohibited consumer choices from being revealed in the marketplace for both the EU and the U.S. The authors provide insight into where the comparative advantages lie in freer trade situations.     

Welfare Implications of EU Enlargement under the CAP

The qualitative impacts of European Union (EU) enlargement on intervention prices, variable import levies, and export restitution payments for cereal under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are analyzed using a partial equilibrium framework for EU cereal crops. The welfare implications are developed for both a net exporter and net importer. Consumer surplus, producer surplus, government revenue, and total welfare are compared and contrasted for the EU and the new entrant, both before and after enlargement. Dans le présent article, les répercussions qualitatives de l'élargissement de l'UE sur les prix d'intervention, les prélèvements variables à l'importation et les paiements de restitution à l'exportation des céréales dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) sont analysés à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre partiel pour les cultures céréalières de l'UE. Les répercussions sur le bien–être sont élaborées dans le cas d'un exportateur net et d'un importateur net. Le surplus des consommateurs, le surplus des producteurs, les recettes publiques et le bien–être total sont comparés pour l'UE et le nouveau venu, et ce, avant et après l'élargissement de l'UE.