The Market Perception of Convertible Debt Versus Straight Debt: some Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firms and Non-U.S. Firms Listed in the U.S.

Accounting for convertible debt has long been a source of controversy in the accounting profession in the U.S. Current U.S. accounting rules require classifying convertible debt at date of issuance as "entirely debt" until conversion, despite numerous studies that assert that convertible debt is not "entirely debt", but is a blend of debt and equity. Convertible debt has taken on international interest because of the issuance of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 32, Financial Instruments; Disclosure and Presentation, which prescribes reporting separate debt and equity components for convertible debt. This study examines convertible debt issued by U.S. firms and non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. using a levels approach. Specifically, convertible debt is compared to straight debt and contrary to ex ante expectation, convertible debt was not found to be perceived as being significantly different than straight debt for U.S. firms for any years and is statistically different in only two of the six years tested for non-U.S. firms. The validity of this study's findings is underscored by its research design, which compares convertible debt and straight debt issued by the same firms. The findings suggest that investors regard reported amounts of convertible debt similar to straight debt in their assessment of firm value.     

Formulation of public debt management strategies: An empirical study of possible drivers

A well-designed public debt management strategy can help countries reduce their borrowing cost, contain financial risks and develop their domestic markets. Using survey data on debt management strategies, this paper studies whether the probability that a country has a formal debt management strategy, publishes the strategy document, and uses quantitative benchmarks to formulate its debt management strategy is affected by democratic accountability, institutional quality, past debt crises/defaults, official development assistance, and participation in debt management programs. We find that countries located in Latin America and the Caribbean are less likely to have developed a debt management strategy and, if they have, are less likely to publish it. In contrast, countries located in the Middle East and North Africa are less likely to use quantitative benchmarks in the formulation of their debt management strategies. A country is more likely to have developed a debt management strategy if it has the experience of a past debt crisis, but not of repeated debt crises. Institutional quality and democratic accountability could significantly contribute to the emergence of more transparent and accountable debt management strategies in developing countries. IFIs’ technical assistance on public debt management could be enhanced by IFIs conducting their own, prior diagnostic reviews.     

我国地方政府显性债务问题实证分析

本文对我国某地区显性债务规模与结构进行分析，结果表明，从规模上看，我国地方政府显性债务具有规模庞大，不断扩张，超出了地方财力规模，逾期债务比重较大等特点；从结构上看，我国地方政府显性债务具有来源复杂等特点。同时，通过对债务规模与某些因素的相关分析表明，我国地方政府显性债务规模与地方经济总量存在相关性。     

企业的负债风险及其控制

在市场经济条件下,企业负债经营是不可避免的.负债经营可以提高企业的市场竞争能力,扩大企业生产规模,使企业得到财务杠杆效益,减少货币贬值的损失,降低综合资金成本.同时,负债经营也增加了企业的负债风险.那么,怎样才能在企业发展和控制负债风险之间寻求一条最佳途径呢？本文先通过对负债经营的主要风险以及负债风险的成因进行分析,然后针对负债经营企业如何防范和控制负债风险提出了几点建议.     

Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach

This paper examines research on public debt management, focusing on debt structure by denomination, indexation features, and maturity. The optimal taxation approach is reviewed and its policy implications are related to the trade-off between minimization of the expected cost of debt servicing and minimization of budgetary risk. Strong arguments are provided for debt instruments which yield low returns when output and hence revenues are lower and public spending higher than expected. This debt design minimizes tax distortions and provides flexibility in conducting fiscal policy. The exact characterization of the debt composition which supports efficient taxation depends on the stochastic structure of the economy. Long-term nominal debt is a hedge against supply shocks affecting revenues and inflation and makes the government budget insensitive to interest-rate risk. However, at high levels of debt, the extent of insurance or flexibility that governments can obtain by issuing long-term nominal debt is limited by the need to maintain the credibility of the anti-inflation stance.     

政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道

基于1960～2010年113个国家的面板数据集,运用系统广义矩动态面板方法和稳健性分析,比较发达国家和发展中国家政府债务经济增长效应的差异,并尝试分析政府债务影响经济增长的渠道。研究结果显示,政府债务对经济增长有非线性影响;发达国家政府债务对经济增长、投资以及全要素生产率均无显著影响;发展中国家对政府债务的直接承受力更弱,但在一个宽松的临界点内,政府债务的增加可以提高投资率。     

Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits

This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances welfare by reducing long run debt. In an economy calibrated to a generic OECD country, the maximum attainable welfare gain of debt consolidation, which is induced by imposing the optimally parameterized constraint, amounts to 0.5% in terms of consumption. The short run welfare costs of the constraint, which arise from restricting the use of debt to smooth taxes, are quantitatively negligible.     

Government debt,learning and the term structure

Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically significant manner. The maturity composition of debt is also found to matter: innovations in holdings of long-term debt affect the term structure, while increases in short-term debt affect inflation expectations. These effects of changes in holdings of debt on the yield curve can be derived in a general equilibrium model in which the government issues exponentially-maturing riskless debt, financed by lump-sum taxes, and the optimizing agents are adaptive learners. On calibrating the average maturity of debt in the model to match that of U.S. Treasury debt since the 1980s, I find that positive innovations in government debt lead to increases in asset yields. This is because agents do not learn the principle of Ricardian equivalence exactly, and perceive increases in holdings of government bonds as a rise in their net wealth. Imposing rational expectations on the agents eliminates this channel, and changes in holdings of government debt have no effect on yields. The learning model also implies that as the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and the average maturity of debt becomes longer, the agents become less likely to learn that Ricardian equivalence holds.     

中小企业债务融资风险评估研究

本文针对中小企业债务融资困难、风险大的问题,从支付性和经营性债务融资风险两方面筛选指标建立其债务融资风险评估体系,用层次分析法确定权重,并运用功效系数法对债务融资风险进行评估,为广大中小企业及时识别债务融资过程中的问题、调整融资策略、稳定企业财务、提高风险防范能力提供参考。通过对一个典型中小企业的实证分析,表明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

债务率、偿债压力与地方债务的经济增长效应

研究目标：中国地方政府债务对于经济增长的门限效应。研究方法：基于债务率,即债务存量与地方政府综合财力的比值的视角,利用中国30个省份2010~2014年年底的地方债务余额数据,对地方债务的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。研究发现：中国地方债务存在明显的经济增长门限效应：当债务率高于112%左右之后,原本正向显著的经济增长促进作用基本趋近于无,而其作用渠道可以明确为如下传导机制,债务率高企带来地方政府偿债压力从而影响经济发展导向的财政支出。研究创新：引入债务率指标并基于偿债压力视角分析了地方债务对于经济增长的作用机制。研究价值：对于我国地方政府债务的管控治理和风险防范,具有重要的参考价值。     

Investigating the effectiveness of convertible bonds in reducing agency costs: A Monte-Carlo approach

Simulation and option pricing techniques are used to value the marginal effect of asset risk on stock value. I find the optimal mix of stock, debt and convertible bonds that reduces this marginal effect to zero. At this optimal point the agency costs of debt are minimized. The incentive to add risky projects that arises from ordinary debt is offset by the incentive to ignore risky projects that arises from convertible debt.     

Forgive or buy back: an experimental study of debt relief

In recent years, debt relief has once again been pushed to the forefront of political and economic interest. The general consensus is that with less debt burden poor countries suffering from debt overhang will be able devote more resources towards investment thereby promoting their own growth and thus benefit their creditors in the long run. An open question is which mechanism is best to relieve debt burden. In this paper, we adopt experimental methods to study the effectiveness and efficiency of debt forgiveness and debt buyback. We find that creditors tend to reduce more debt under Forgiveness than Buyback. Debtors under Forgiveness are not significantly more reciprocal than under Buyback. After controlling for the amount of debt relief, creditors are significantly worse off under Forgiveness whereas debtors are indifferent between the two schemes. From the viewpoint of promoting debt relief, debt forgiveness appears to be a more effective tool to achieve this goal. Nevertheless, if one is to maximize the overall efficiency, debt buyback is superior to debt forgiveness in making best of each relief dollar.     

可转换债务发行动机研究综述

长期以来,从事财务实务工作的人员一直认为,企业发行可转换债务的主要动机是可转换债务相比直接债务或普通权益,其筹资成本更为低廉。然而,Brennan和Schwartz指出,这是一种错误的想法。由于可转换债务附有转换权,因此其成本事实上可能并不低廉。这就意味着企业之所以发行可转换债务一定还有其他的理由,可转换债务发行动机的理论研究证实了这一点。     

Asset sale,debt restructuring,and liquidation

This paper considers a dynamic model in which shareholders of a firm in distress have a choice of whether the firm proceeds to debt restructuring or direct liquidation at an arbitrary time. In the model, we show the following results. Fewer asset sales, lower financing, debt renegotiation, and running costs, a lower premium to the debt holders, a lower cash flow volatility, and a higher initial coupon increase the shareholders׳ incentive to choose debt restructuring to avoid full liquidation. In the debt renegotiation process, the shareholders arrange the coupon reduction and use equity financing to retire a part of the debt value to the debt holders. The timing of debt restructuring always coincides with that of liquidation without debt renegotiation. Most notably, the shareholders do not prefer asset sale in debt restructuring even if they face high financing costs. The possibility of debt renegotiation in the future increases the initial leverage ratio in the optimal capital structure.     

Sovereign debt composition and time-varying public finance sustainability

We compute time-varying responses of the sovereign debt ratio to primary budget balances for 13 advanced economies between 1980 and 2012, and assess how fiscal sustainability reacts to different characteristics of government debt. We find that the sustainability time-varying coefficient increases and countries become more fiscally sustainable if they contract a higher share of long-term public debt, if more debt is held by the central bank or if it is easily marketable in capital markets.     

Debt stabilization games in the presence of risk premia

As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a country that features endogenous risk premia, imposed by financial markets that evaluate the probability of debt default by governments. Endogenous risk premia arise by assuming, e.g., simple linear relations between risk premia and the level of debt. As a result the real interest rate on government debt can be written as a constant (measuring the risk-free real interest rate corrected for real output growth) plus an endogenous risk premium that depends on the debt level. We bring such an endogenous risk premium into Tabellini (1986) model and analyze the impact of it. This gives rise to a non-linear differential game. We solve this game for both a cooperative setting and a non-cooperative setting. The non-cooperative game is solved under an open-loop information structure. We present a bifurcation analysis w.r.t. the risk premium parameter.     

Government debt spillovers in a monetary union

This paper presents estimates of the impact of debt issued by one government in a monetary union on the yields of the bonds issued by other governments in the union. These debt spillovers may occur if there is a risk of monetary accommodation, implicit or explicit inter-jurisdictional bailout provisions, or interdependent revenues. The analysis empirically distinguishes between two channels through which debt spillovers may affect bond yields: currency depreciation risk and default risk. Data on the yields of individual Canadian provincial government bonds for the period 1983–2005 are employed. No evidence is found of debt spillovers between provinces, but a one percentage point increase in the central government's debt to GDP ratio raises the yield on provincial government bonds by 4.2 basis points—2.9 basis points by increasing the expected depreciation rate of the Canadian dollar and 1.3 basis points by raising the risk of provincial government default. These results imply that a rise in the Canadian central government debt to GDP ratio from 0.25 to 0.58, equivalent to the rise that occurred between 1983 and 1995, would lead to an increase in provincial government bond yields of approximately 140 basis points.     

Theory,practice and potential of debt for development swaps in the Asian and Pacific region

This paper discusses to what extent debt relief embedded in debt swaps linked to development can be helpful in reaching development goals such as the Millennium Development Goals. A range of historical and current international debt relief practices and proposals is assessed on the basis of their ability to generate additional resources and their effectiveness in channeling these resources towards development by ways of earmarking. It is argued that traditional debt for development swaps, because of their marginal and micro-earmarked nature, are less efficient and effective than larger scale operations such as those that are linked to the PRSP (‘debt for PRSP swaps’) as in the HIPC Initiative and recent extensions. Observing that current practice largely bypasses the Asian and Pacific countries, we finally assess to what extent there is an untapped potential to promote debt swaps for this region.     

Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality

What are the welfare effects of government debt? In particular, what are the welfare consequences of government debt reductions? We answer these questions with the help of an incomplete markets economy with production. Households are subject to uninsurable income shocks. We make several contributions. First, by targeting the skewed wealth and earnings distribution of the US economy in our calibration, we identify inequality as the major driver of the welfare effects of public debt/GDP changes. Second, we show that in order to fully gauge the welfare consequences and the political feasibility of government debt changes, it is crucial to consider the transitional dynamics between stationary equilibria. Our results therefore have important implications for the design of debt reduction policies. Since the skewed wealth distribution generates a large fraction of borrowing-constrained households, a public debt reduction should be non-linear, such that the tax burden is postponed into the future.     

Determinants of capital structure choice: A structural equation modeling approach

In their seminal research on the determinants of capital structure choice using structural equation modeling (SEM), Titman and Wessels [Titman, S., & Wessels, R. (1988). The determinants of capital structure choice. Journal of Finance, 43, 1–19] obtain weak results and hence call for further investigation. We apply a Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, with refined indicators, to a pooled sample for the period 1988–2003 and find more convincing results than those obtained by Titman and Wessels. With the capital structure measured simultaneously by the ratios of long-term debt, short-term debt, and convertible debt to the market value of equity, our results show that growth is the most important determinant of capital structure choice, followed in order by profitability, collateral value, volatility, non-debt tax shields, and uniqueness. Moreover, we find that long-term debt is the most important proxy of capital structure, followed by short-term debt, and then convertible debt.