Predicting Bankruptcy Resolution

This study examines classification and prediction of the bankruptcy resolution event. Filing of bankruptcy is resolved through one of three alternative resolutions: acquisition, emergence or liquidation. Predicting the final bankruptcy resolution has not been examined in the prior accounting and finance literature. This post-bankruptcy classification and prediction of the final resolution is harder than discriminating between healthy and bankrupt firms because all filing firms are already in financial distress. Motivation for predicting the final resolution is developed and enhanced. A sample of 237 firms filing for bankruptcy is used. Classification and prediction accuracies are determined using a logit model. A ten-variable, three-group resolution logit model, which includes five accounting and five non-accounting variables is developed. The model correctly classifies 62 percent of the firms, significantly better than a random classification. We conclude that non-accounting data add relevant information to financial accounting data for predicting post bankruptcy resolution. Further, public policy implications for investors, researchers, bankruptcy judges, claimants and other stakeholders are discussed.     

Longitudinal accounting comparability and bond credit spreads: Evidence from China

This paper proposes a procedure to measure firms’ longitudinal accounting comparability and investigates whether it affects bond risk premiums. The results provide robust evidence that bonds of firms with more longitudinally comparable accounting information have lower credit spreads. This effect is stronger when the firms’ financial performance is poor and for bonds with speculative credit ratings. Results also reveal that firms with less longitudinally comparable accounting information are more informationally asymmetric and do have a higher expected default probability. Finally, the effects of the longitudinal and the cross-sectional comparability in reducing bond credit spreads are incremental to each other.     

Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties

This paper extends the macroeconomic frailty model to include sectoral frailty factors that capture default correlations among firms in a similar business. We estimate sectoral and macroeconomic frailty factors and their effects on default intensity using the data for Japanese firms from 1992 to 2010. We find strong evidence for the presence of sectoral frailty factors even after accounting for the effects of observable covariates and macroeconomic frailty on default intensity. The model with sectoral frailties performs better than that without. Results show that accounting for the sources of unobserved sectoral default risk covariations improves the accuracy of default probability estimation.     

金融资产配置与违约风险:蓄水池效应,还是逐利效应？

本文以2007—2016年中国A股上市公司为研究对象,检验了企业金融资产配置对违约风险的影响。实证研究发现:金融资产持有量越多,企业的违约风险越低,金融资产配置的“蓄水池效应”显著;在货币政策宽松时期,金融资产配置导致的代理冲突显现,宽松的货币政策会抑制金融资产投资对违约风险的降低作用。政府规制也会有一定的公司治理作用,将产业政策纳入讨论发现:对于产业政策支持的行业来说,企业金融资产配置能够降低违约风险,但是宽松的货币政策会刺激管理层的短视投资行为,抑制政府规制的公司治理作用。进一步地,本文提出会计稳健性的提升是企业金融资产配置降低违约风险的重要路径。本文的研究结论丰富了企业金融资产配置动机和违约风险影响因素的讨论,能够为政府部门防范经济运行中的内在风险提供有益借鉴。     

The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms

We analyse a sample of 6 million firm-year observations of large corporations and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) spanning 6 European countries from 2005 to 2015, to determine the impact of leverage and different sources of funding on default risk. We find that financial leverage has a greater impact on the probability of default of SMEs than of large corporations. The difference in default probability between the top and bottom leverage quartiles is 1.24% for large firms and 2.87% for SMEs. This difference may be explained by the greater exposure of SMEs to short-term debt and their consequently higher refinancing risk. Indeed, we find that SMEs that recover from the state of insolvency may have similar leverage to defaulted SMEs; however their liability structure is significantly altered towards long-term debt and away from short-term debt. Our findings have important implications not only for bank regulators and policy-makers but also for credit risk modelling.     

Ownership Structure and Accounting Method Choice: A Study of European Real Estate Companies

Companies can under IAS 40 Investment Properties choose between the fair value and the cost models. The fair value model arguably results in more relevant information but is also more costly to use. Based on studies suggesting that financial reports are a more important medium for communication with investors if ownership is dispersed, we hypothesize that the use of the fair value model is positively associated with ownership dispersion. We study European Real Estate firms and find support for this prediction. We also find a positive association between trade of shares and ownership dispersion, supporting the view that financial statements are less important if ownership concentration is high. Finally, we examine whether the choice depends on the identity of large owners. Companies with a financial company as the largest owner are somewhat more likely to choose the fair value model. Overall, the results indicate that accounting rules facilitating optional accounting policies have benefits.     

A comparative study of the probability of default for global financial firms

This article presents a modification of Merton’s (1976) ruin option pricing model to estimate the implied probability of default from stock and option market prices. To test the model, we analyze all global financial firms with traded options in the US and focus on the subprime mortgage crisis period. We compare the performance of the implied probability of default from our model to the expected default frequencies based on the Moody’s KMV model and agency credit ratings by constructing cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We find that the probability of default estimates from our model are equal or superior to other credit risk measures studied based on CAP and ROC. In particular, during the subprime crisis our model surpassed credit ratings and matched or exceeded KMV in anticipating the magnitude of the crisis. We have also found some initial evidence that adding off-balance-sheet derivatives exposure improves the performance of the KMV model.     

Combining accounting data and a structural model for predicting credit ratings: Empirical evidence from European listed firms

Ratings issued by credit rating agencies (CRAs) play an important role in the global financial environment. Among other issues, past studies have explored the potential for predicting these ratings using a variety of explanatory factors and modeling approaches. This paper describes a multi-criteria classification approach that combines accounting data with a structural default prediction model in order to obtain improved predictions and test the incremental information that a structural model provides in this context. Empirical results are presented for a panel data set of European listed firms during the period 2002–2012. The analysis indicates that a distance-to-default measure obtained from a structural model adds significant information compared to popular financial ratios. Nevertheless, its power is considerably weakened when market capitalization is also considered. The robustness of the results is examined over time and under different rating category specifications.     

Student perceptions on using guided reading questions to motivate student reading in the flipped classroom

Although upper-level accounting majors tend to be more motivated than introductory-level students, or non-accounting majors, it is still challenging to motivate such students to complete and understand assigned readings. The purpose of this study is to assess student perceptions on the implementation of guided reading questions to motivate and enhance student reading to help flip the intermediate accounting classroom. Without essential preparation, students may be unable to adequately participate during class discussions or perform well across other course dimensions, especially in a flipped classroom setting. We assigned guided reading questions related to two required intermediate financial accounting textbook presentations (one course specifically for accounting majors and the other for non-accounting majors). Student perception results indicate that the guided reading questions positively impact student motivation, reading comprehension, effort level, and understanding of the material before attending class. The results are strongest for non-accounting majors.     

自由现金流量创造力与违约风险——来自A股公司的经验证据

本文基于我国A股上市公司数据,研究了企业自由现金流量创造力与违约风险之间的关系。研究发现：(1)企业自由现金流量创造力越强,其违约风险越低。经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立。(2)自由现金流量创造力越强的企业往往有更低的债务规模、更高的资产收益率和更低的股票波动,因而其违约风险更低。(3)自由现金流量创造力与违约风险的负相关关系,主要存在于货币政策紧缩时期以及外部信息环境较差的企业。本文发现意味着,监管部门和投资者应重视上市公司自由现金流量创造力不足所带来的潜在债务违约风险,通过不断提高公司自由现金流量创造力,助力我国宏观经济与微观企业高质量发展。     

Financial reporting quality and outsourcing of accounting tasks: Evidence from small private firms

This study explores whether the financial reporting quality of small firms differs between firms that outsource accounting tasks and firms that perform these tasks internally. Using accruals quality as a measure for the financial reporting quality and a sample of small Finnish limited liability firms, we find that the quality among the firms is positively related to the decision of purchasing accounting services from an external service provider. This result is also economically significant. The evidence shows that outsourcing of accounting tasks such as the preparation of the statutory financial statements and longer outsourcing relationships increases reporting quality. However, outsourcing of additional tasks, such as payroll processing, does not result in higher quality. These findings are consistent with previous studies showing that small firms in general lack the resources and expertise to prepare high quality financial reports. We provide evidence of an important yet under-researched area of financial reporting quality among small firms.     

Information transfers among co-owned firms

We study how lenders in blockheld firms exploit the information on the other holdings of equity blockholders to learn their attitude toward creditors. In the presence of the conflict of interest between lenders and equityholders, information on how blockholders behave in the other firms they control provides the lenders with key information about potential blockholder behavior. We test this hypothesis using data on US public firms over the 2001–2008 period. We show that the financial conditions of these co-owned firms affect how lenders value other firms in which the owner has a major stake. Bad news on credit quality in co-owned firms raise the firm's credit risk. Our identification is based on the instrumental variables estimation where we instrument the changes in credit risk of co-owned firms by the natural disaster events in the counties of co-owned firm headquarters.     

Accounting-based downside risk,cost of capital,and the macroeconomy

We hypothesize that earnings downside risk, capturing the expectation for future downward operating performance, contains distinct information about firm risk and varies with cost of capital in the cross section of firms. Consistent with the validity of the earnings downside risk measure, we find that, relative to low earnings downside risk firms, high earnings downside risk firms experience more negative operating performance over the subsequent period, are more sensitive to downward macroeconomic states, and are more strongly linked to earnings attributes and other risk-related measures from prior research. In line with our prediction, we also find that earnings downside risk explains variation in firms’ cost of capital, and that this link between earnings downside risk and cost of capital is incremental to several earnings attributes, accounting and risk factor betas, return downside risk, default risk, earnings volatility, and firm fundamentals. Overall, this study contributes to accounting research by demonstrating the key valuation and risk assessment roles of earnings downside risk derived from firms’ financial statements, also shedding new light on the link between accounting and the macroeconomy.     

The effect of owner versus management control on the choice of accounting methods

This paper examines the relationship between the ownership control status of firms and the accounting methods they adopt. The arguments of Watts and Zimmerman's positive theory are integrated with those of managerial economists to generate the prediction that management controlled firms are more likely than owner controlled firms to adopt accounting methods which increase reported earnings. This prediction is inconsistent with Fama's hypothesis that the market for managerial talent will prevent management controlled firms from acting differently than owner controlled firms. This paper compares the depreciation methods used by a sample of management and owner controlled firms for financial reporting purposes. The comparison considers and controls for the factors of firm size, leverage, and the depreciation method used for tax reporting purposes. The comparison reveals that there is a significant difference in the depreciation methods adopted by management controlled and owner controlled firms for financial reporting purposes.     

Audit committee quality,auditor independence,and internal control weaknesses

In this paper we investigate the relation between audit committee quality, auditor independence, and the disclosure of internal control weaknesses after the enactment of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. We begin with a sample of firms with internal control weaknesses and, based on industry, size, and performance, match these firms to a sample of control firms without internal control weaknesses. Our conditional logit analyses indicate that a relation exists between audit committee quality, auditor independence, and internal control weaknesses. Firms are more likely to be identified with an internal control weakness, if their audit committees have less financial expertise or, more specifically, have less accounting financial expertise and non-accounting financial expertise. They are also more likely to be identified with an internal control weakness, if their auditors are more independent. In addition, firms with recent auditor changes are more likely to have internal control weaknesses.     

The Effect of Analysts' Adjustments in the Context of Loan Assessment

This paper demonstrates that improvements in the classification of loan default can arise through making simple accounting adjustments to the financial statements of small firms prior to calculation of ratios. However, the improvement in loan default classification exists only on a univariate basis. The adjustments do not increase default classification when a multivariate linear discriminant model is employed. The data base comprises commonly used financial ratios extracted from the financial statements of 40 small New Zealand businesses with manufacturing or distribution activities.     

The Maturity Rat Race

Why do some firms, especially financial institutions, finance themselves so short‐term? We show that extreme reliance on short‐term financing may be the outcome of a maturity rat race: a borrower may have an incentive to shorten the maturity of an individual creditor's debt contract because this dilutes other creditors. In response, other creditors opt for shorter maturity contracts as well. This dynamic toward short maturities is present whenever interim information is mostly about the probability of default rather than the recovery in default. For borrowers that cannot commit to a maturity structure, equilibrium financing is inefficiently short‐term.     

Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns

We explicitly consider financial leverage in a simple equity valuation model and study the cross‐sectional implications of potential shareholder recovery upon resolution of financial distress. Our model is capable of simultaneously explaining lower returns for financially distressed stocks, stronger book‐to‐market effects for firms with high default likelihood, and the concentration of momentum profits among low credit quality firms. The model further predicts (i) a hump‐shaped relationship between value premium and default probability, and (ii) stronger momentum profits for nearly distressed firms with significant prospects for shareholder recovery. Our empirical analysis strongly confirms these novel predictions.     

The effect of foreign currency hedging on the probability of financial distress

This paper investigates the effect of foreign currency hedging with derivatives on the probability of financial distress. I use Merton’s (1974) structural default model to compute firms’ distance to default as a proxy for their probability of financial distress. Using an instrumental variables approach to control for endogenous hedging and leverage, I find that the extent of foreign currency hedging is associated with a lower probability of financial distress. Whereas previous research finds that the probability of financial distress is a determinant of a firm’s hedging policy, this paper provides direct evidence supporting the hypothesis that the extent of hedging reduces a firm’s probability of financial distress.     

Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy

Despite a surge in the research efforts put into modeling credit and default risk during the past decade, few studies have incorporated the impact that macroeconomic conditions have on business defaults. In this paper, we estimate a duration model to explain the survival time to default for borrowers in the business loan portfolio of a major Swedish bank over the period 1994–2000. The model takes both firm-specific characteristics, such as accounting ratios and payment behaviour, loan-related information, and the prevailing macroeconomic conditions into account. The output gap, the yield curve and consumers’ expectations of future economic development have significant explanatory power for the default risk of firms. We also compare our model with a frequently used model of firm default risk that conditions only on firm-specific information. The comparison shows that while the latter model can make a reasonably accurate ranking of firms’ according to default risk, our model, by taking macro conditions into account, is also able to account for the absolute level of risk.