国库现金管理对货币供应量的影响分析

国库现金管理是连接财政政策与货币政策直接有效的结合点,通过国库现金管理运作,不但能够扩大中央银行货币政策调控范围,还可以进一步改进财政部门与中央银行在货币市场运行方面的协调与沟通,提高货币政策调控的完整性和有效性。本文分析了我国国库现金管理的现状,并以货币供给理论为依托,从理论及实证两方面分析了国库现金管理对货币政策的影响,     

利率市场化与货币政策的相关性

从管制利率到利率市场化的转变是我国经济、金融发展的客观要求。在利率市场化条件下，利率变动频繁，金融创新层出不穷，金融机构竞争加剧，客户融资渠道多样化。这些变化都将使中央银行对货币供给的控制、货币政策的制订和执行面临巨大的挑战。     

"现金交易说"新观点

"现金交易说"的具体分析 在分析这些货币需求理论之前,我们首先需要明确,货币需求始终与货币供给密切相关,所以在以下的分析中,对货币需求的分析都考虑到货币供给.货币供给不同于货币发行,货币供给的范围又因国家,制度的不同有差异,从国际来看各国的货币供给包括了多重口径,不准确的货币供给观念与经济形势判断中货币定义不准确,会直接影响宏观经济形势的判断,从而导致不恰当的货币政策的选择,因此货币供给的口径的确定便显得十分重要.     

双轨制利率体系下我国货币政策反应函数的估计与检验

利用广义矩估计法(GMM)考察现行双轨制的利率体系下泰勒规则在我国货币政策中的适用性.结合我国的经济数据及实际情况,构建具有利率平滑特征及前瞻性的货币政策反应函数,对管制利率及市场利率两种体系下的泰勒规则进行检验,结论显示存款利率并未根据通胀及产出的变动加以调整,而市场利率及管制较为放松的贷款利率对产出、通胀以及货币供给均能作出反应,对产出及货币供给的反应显著,但是对通货膨胀反应不足,即依据预期通胀、预期产出及货币供给增长率的变化估计的前瞻性泰勒规则尚不具备稳定性,当前不宜将泰勒规则作为我国货币政策操作的依据.     

全球经常账户失衡调整困局:基于货币政策的探讨北大核心CSSCISSCI

货币政策是调整外部失衡的重要工具。本文通过对历史上两次重大的全球经常账户失衡的回顾,发现在失衡持续时期,经济体内外部目标的不一致以及国际货币政策不协调是影响相关各国调节决心和调节效果的重要原因。理论模型表明,在当前的货币金融背景下,发展中国家经济货币稳定缺乏有效保护,货币政策不得不参照发达国家并实行"相机抉择"的管理。这影响了外部调整的效果及失衡国调整的积极性。加强国际货币协调合作、改革国际货币体系是缓解经常账户失衡的重要措施。     

走向趋同与合作的金融调控新秩序:国际经验与教训

本文从案例分析入手,选择了一些典型的发达国家、发展中国家和转型经济国家,对这些国家20世纪80年代以来的相关金融调控进行了实证分析。研究表明：全球金融调控呈现趋同与合作的新秩序。论文运用对比与归纳的方法,从货币政策优先目标、利率市场化、汇率改革、货币政策决策机制和货币财政政策协调等五个方面全面总结了金融调控的国际经验和教训。     

理财

降息对股市影响的具体体现大家都知道降息对股市来说是利好，可利好具体体现在哪些方面？（四川省王毅）专家：货币政策是政府调控宏观经济的基本手段之一。由于社会总供给和总需求的平衡与货币供给总量与货币需求总量的平衡相辅相成。因而宏观经济调控之重点必然立足于货币供给量。货币政策主要针对货币供给量的调节和控制展开，进而实现诸如稳定货币、增加就业、平衡国际收支、发展经济等宏观经济目标。货币政策对股票市场与股价的影响非常大。宽松的货币政策会扩大社会上货币供给总量，对经济发展和证券市场交易有着积极影响。但是货币供应太多又会引起通货膨胀，使企业发展受到影响，使实际投资收益率下降。紧缩的货币政策则相反，它会减少社会上货币供给总量，不利于经济发展，不利于证券市场的活跃和发展。另外，货币政策对人们的心理影响也非常大，这种影响对股市的涨跌又将产生极大的推动作用。     

开放条件下外汇储备变动对货币政策的影响

基于我国外汇储备持续增长的现状及国际比较,分析了开放条件下外汇储备与货币政策的内在逻辑联系以及冲击路径.研究发现:外汇储备变动主要通过货币供应量、货币供给结构、货币内生性及"三元悖论"等渠道影响我国货币政策的实施效果.进一步阐明了在开放经济条件下,我国应改革现行的外汇管理制度,加大公开市场业务操作力度,促使国际收支结构平衡,以提高货币政策实施的自主性和灵活性.     

中国货币供给是内生的吗——基于VAR模型的实证检验

货币供给的可控性是货币政策调控经济的基础,它直接影响了货币政策效应的发挥。本文从货币供给内生性的角度来探讨我国货币政策难以有效调控经济运行的原因,并根据我国宏观经济历史数据进行了实证检验,最后得出了我国货币供给在长期内存在着内生性的结论,并提出了政策建议。     

2020年货币政策的着力点分析

<正>2019年以来,人民银行坚持服务实体经济,深化供给侧结构性改革,实施稳健的货币政策,继续保持货币供给平稳增长,加快推进信贷结构调整,为我国经济高质量发展营造了适宜的货币金融环境。进入2020年,受经济下行压力叠加新冠肺炎疫情的影响,货币政策逆周期调节的力度将再度加码。但是,在国内经济需求端结构性走弱、国际收支从双顺差转变为趋于平衡、宏观杠杆率高企等诸多宏观因素的制约下,货币政策难以复制"大水漫灌"的强刺激策略。而是需要在新形势下,坚     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.