中国出境旅游"双高"格局与政策取向辨析——兼与戴学锋、巫宁同志商榷

中国出境旅游的高增长和高消费现象引发了对出境旅游不经济性的讨论.本文通过与"中国出境旅游高速增长的负面影响探析"一文作者的商榷,认为出境旅游的迅速发展是我国现阶段宏观经济发展的必然结果,属于"补涨"性质;出境旅游消费存在"虚高"现象;出境旅游的发展为我国旅游业跨国经营创造了有利条件,而跨国经营是克服出境旅游不经济性的最佳途径.     

从外汇储备构成和性质看我国出境旅游发展政策

本文通过对我国外汇储备构成和性质、我国出境旅游规模、中日出境旅游发展背景等方面的分析,得出结论：在当前阶段我国不宜将发展出境旅游作为一种平衡国际收支的方式。     

中国公民出境旅游文明与软实力提升研究

一个国家的“软实力”对于提升国际影响力和形象具有举足轻重的作用,提升国家软实力已经成为中华民族伟大复兴征途中必须面对的现实课题。近年中国公民出境旅游已经成为炙手可热的现象,而我国公民在出境旅游中的不文明行为已成为中国提升国家软实力的瓶颈。本文在中国公民出境旅游文明与提升国家软实力机理分析的基础上,通过构建理论模型,探讨了文明的出境旅游行为与中国软实力提升的相关性,提出了基于中国公民出境旅游文明提升国家软实力的对策。     

编辑手记

炎炎夏日,骄阳似火。经过几个月的连续忙碌,第8期终于和读者见面了。本期中国旅游发展笔谈就出境旅游话题继续进行讨论。白凯认为中国公民出境旅游消费存在异化现象,表现为出境旅游消费失衡和出境旅游消费的炫耀,应该从三个方面加以规制;戴学锋认为,出境旅游应在文化、经济、管理等方面成为扩大中国国际影响力的重要手段;秦宇论证了三个隐含的假设并不成立,认为     

社会学视角下中国公民出境旅游的文化价值——对旅游社会文化影响的案例研究

本文从社会学角度,通过对出境旅游者的访谈和专家焦点小组法,分析出境旅游对旅游者、旅游输出国和旅游目的地在社会文化方面的积极影响,即其文化价值,得出文化因素是出境旅游的主要动机之一,出境旅游过程加强了文化的自我认同和文明之间的对话,出境旅游成为中国中产阶层的生活方式等结论.由此提出,需要将出境旅游的社会学分析,应用于旅游政策制定、行业管理和企业经营的实践中.     

中国出境旅游高速增长的负面影响探析

旅游业是相当于我国GDP近6%的重要产业.国际旅游是旅游者的跨国界流动,是旅游者的消费能力从客源国转移到东道国的释放,被称为无形贸易和"风景资源的就地出口".20世纪90年代以前我国的国际旅游以入境旅游为主要形式,它曾是我国创汇的重要渠道."九五"以来,我国出境旅游持续快速发展.事实上,出境旅游的超高速增长正使我国旅游业面临由创汇产业向耗汇产业的过渡.本文拟从经济社会的宏观角度,将当前我国旅游业的发展看成是我国特定经济社会条件下的产物,从这个角度分析出境旅游的超常发展是否在"适度"的范围,探讨出境旅游发展对宏观经济、国际收支平衡和和谐社会的影响;并基于这种形势判断和负面影响分析,提出相应的政策调控构想.     

试论我国出境旅游管理体制改革问题

近年来我国出境旅游的游客逐渐增多,但在目前的出境旅游管理上还存在着许多问题。本文将从我国现阶段出境旅游管理中所存在的问题着手,进一步分析出境旅游管理问题的根源,并且提出具体的出境旅游管理体制改革措施,针对我国现阶段的境外旅游管理改革作出深层次的探讨,为维护我国旅游市场的健康发展做出贡献。     

中国游客出境游目的地选择与社交媒体营销

中国作为出境旅游客源地，具有极强的实力及增长潜力。世界旅游组织预测，2020年中国出境旅游人数将达到1亿人次，成为第一大出境旅游客源国。因而，国外目的地管理组织纷纷对中国旅游市场给予高度重视，针对中国市场特点进行营销。     

从创汇优先到平衡收支:我国出境旅游发展战略的再认识——兼与戴学锋先生商榷

本文认为,在外汇储备高居世界第一,贸易顺差日益扩大的新形势下,必须重新审视我国旅游业的发展战略,提出了将发展旅游业提升到国家发展战略和国家整体利益的高度来认识,阐述了规范发展出境旅游的重大理论和深远现实意义.对有些学者以发展出境旅游会带来"外汇漏损"为由,重新提出"适度发展出境旅游"的观点进行了商榷.     

中国出境旅游发展的阶段特征与政策选择

近年来,我国出境旅游增长快速,旅游服务贸易逆差持续扩大,引发政府与学界关于出境旅游发展是否超前的争议。对我国出境旅游发展状况及其影响的认识,已经不仅仅是一个单纯的学术问题,它将影响新时期旅游产业政策导向。文章对中国出境旅游的客源产出、空间流向、市场规模以及消费结构进行了全面而理性的分析。研究发现:中国出境旅游发展处于与国情相适应的初步阶段,宜采取有序引导和相机抉择的市场政策。     

中国公民赴韩国旅游市场分析--以我国六大旅游热点城市为例

中韩两国历史源远流长，文化相似，地理相邻，两国人民世代交往不断。由于特定时期的政治原因，两国一度中断了联系。但自1992年中韩建交以来，两国之间的经济、文化交流日益频繁。中国已经成为韩国第二大旅游客源国，中国公民赴韩国旅游业已成为我国出境游市场的重要组成部分。本论文旨在通过对中国公民赴韩国出境游市场的现状进行分析，提出当前韩国游市场存在的问题，并从政府旅游部门、旅游企业及韩方相关机构角度提出相关对策建议，以利于促进中国公民赴韩出境游市场的持续、健康、快速发展。     

Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world

Global tourist flows have increased in recent decades, but so have the outbreak and spread of epidemics, with enormous social and economic costs for the tourism sector. These developments affect the tourists' decisions to travel through their perception of travel risk and safety. Tourists need to assess whether destinations can identify and manage epidemiological risks to improve travel safety. This paper responds to this challenge by constructing an index of epidemiological susceptibility risk using objective information on the quality of health, environmental safety and communications infrastructures, demographics, economic activity, and institutional governance. The index appears to be a significant predictor of inbound tourist flows and occasionally of outbound flows. The effect on inbound flows is stronger in larger countries and weaker for outbound flows. It remains robust after applying sensitivity and endogeneity tests and economic and non-economic controls. The index could potentially provide a useful policy tool for predicting and managing the implications of epidemics on the tourism industry.     

英国出境旅游产品分析

本文通过英国旅行社出境旅游产品的类别分析和价格差异对比,总结了出境旅游产品的5种基本特性,在产品差异原因分析时发现,旅游目的地的旅游资源差异固然是旅游产品差异的主基石,但目的地接待服务水平高低反而是当地旅游业发展的主导因素,在休闲旅游阶段,其作用胜过旅游资源本身,甚至超过了资源。     

Validating the international tourist role scale

This study was designed to validate the international tourist role scale and the three dimensions it revealed. The purpose of this attitudinal scale was to measure the tourist role typology. United States adult outbound tourists flying with 11 major airlines returned useful questionnaires. This study validated the role scale as a reliable one that properly identified three conceptual dimensions of international tourist typology and successfully provided measures of tourists’ novelty-seeking preferences on the three dimensions. The study demonstrated, however, that the scale would measure the novelty-seeking preferences of international tourists more effectively if it were supplemented by other measures.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

Tourist Motivation with Sun and Sand Destinations: Satisfaction and the Wom-Effect

To study the tourist consumption process, the present work suggests a new conceptual framework of tourist motivation. This framework for tourist motivation proposes causal relationships for important constructs in the consumption process: between motivations to travel, tourists' satisfaction, and intentions to communicate with others by word-of-mouth (WOM). A review of current tourism and marketing literature suggests two body-related dimensions (i.e., sun and warmth, fitness and health) and two mind-related dimensions (i.e., culture and nature, escapism). The study tests an instrument to measure the dimensions of tourist motivation. A research model investigates the relevant relationships among the constructs and uses a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Analysis of 1,222 outbound charter tourists from Norway tests the model. The results confirm that body and mind are useful as a framework to assess tourist motivations. People have many motives for visiting sun and sand destinations. Satisfaction was, as expected, found to impact WOM. However, only mind-related motives affect satisfaction with the destination, and tourists prefer to talk about culture and nature motivations, in particular, to others. These findings are of great importance due to the great influence of WOM in tourism marketing. The findings point to the importance of recognizing the differences in tourist motivation for traveling and what tourists are inclined to tell others when arriving back home.     

中国老年人出国旅游需求与制终——基于北京中老年人市场调查

老龄化背景下,出国旅游不仅关乎国家的国际利益,更关乎民生关怀、社会稳定。研究中国各类老龄群体出国旅游客源需求特征、制约因素。有助于这一市场前瞻性开拓的同时,更是为老年人谋福祉,有助于“健康老龄化”。文章运用主成分因子分析等方法对1044个中老年人有效样本的研究发现,比以往老年人更加积极的消费理念决定了当代及下一代老年人的出国旅游需求特征;除了自身、外在、惯常生活和消费理念制约因素以外,与中年人相比,老年人出国旅游更容易受到安全因素,特别是心理安全因素的制约;主观年龄与老年人出国旅游活动之间产生交互影响。满足中老年人的出国旅游意愿是其精神慰藉的重要途径。国家层面应尽快完善出境旅游统计调查制度。     

Toward an integrated model of tourist expectation formation and gender difference

This study aims to build and test a theoretical model of tourist expectation formation and seeks to explore the gender differences regarding how tourists form their expectations toward a travel destination. Survey data were obtained from 774 outbound Chinese tourists to Macao, and structural equation modelling was used to test the model and proposed hypotheses. The results reveal that travel motivation, advertising, and word-of-mouth (WOM) recommendations influence travelers' cognitive image and cognitive image interacts with affective image to form individuals' expectations toward travel destinations. Notably, the impacts of travel motivation and advertising on cognitive image, and of cognitive image on tourist expectations were significantly stronger for males than females, while the effects of WOM on cognitive image and of affective image on tourist expectations were stronger for females than males. Both theoretical and practical implications of these important findings are discussed.     

SURE Estimation of Tourism Demand System Model:

The purpose of this study is to build a tourism demand system model which incorporates inbound, outbound and domestic tourism of the U.S. The study utilizes the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) technique to investigate the international tourist flow between the U.S. and Canada, Japan, Mexico, United Kingdom, and inland European countries. Relevant marketing and policy implications for income and price elasticities are discussed.