高等教育投资项目经济评价研究

通过对高等教育投资项目的经济费用与收益识别，构建了对高等教育投资项目进行财务评价与国民经济评价的指标体系，这对建立和完善高等教育投资项目评价理论，正确进行高等教育投资决策奠定了基础。     

Project Appraisal for the Keynesian Investment Planner

This paper outlines a theory of project appraisal wherein the neoclassical premises of conventional cost-benefit analysis are replaced by their Keynesian counterparts. The paper shows how the social rate of return on public and private investment, the private and social discount rates, and other concepts used in cost-benefit analysis may be modified to take account of the income externalities generated by the multiplier, mark-up pricing, and the causal priority of investment over saving. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

基于实物期权的风险投资项目评价分析

风险投资项目与其他项目相比不确定性更大,在传统投资决策方法下,风险投资项目的不确定性使项目的投资价值更低,而实物期权方法作为一种新的投资决策方法为风险项目投资中不确定性问题提供了一种解决的思路。尝试把实物期权理论引入到风险投资项目评估中,并把传统方法与实物期权方法结合起来,旨在完善风险投资项目的评价方法。最后得出结论,实物期权方法为投资者继续投资提供了科学的依据,其在风险项目投资决策中的应用具有重要意义。     

Entrepreneurship,innovation and competitiveness: A public institution love triangle

Diverse and different research studies have approached the impact of the quality of public institutions on entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. However, this relationship has not hitherto been subject to simultaneous study but rather only separately. In turn, our research thus holds the objective of simultaneously evaluating the impact of the quality of public institutions on entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness based on data aggregated at the OECD member state level. We therefore seek to demonstrate how the higher the perceptions of public institution quality held by individuals, the higher the indices of entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. To this end, we deploy data collected from various sources, specifically the United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WB), the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), World Economic Forum (WEF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and Freedom House (FH), for the years between 2006 and 2018 (13 years). For the analysis of this data, we apply an econometric methodology based on multiple regression models for unbalanced panel data. We may thus report that the higher the perception of quality of public institutions, the greater the level of the variables applied for entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness. We believe our empirical results contain important implications whether for researchers, politicians and decision-makers involved in drafting public policies.     

Growth option,debt maturity and cash reserves with bank-tax-interaction

In this paper, we assume a small and micro enterprise(SME, henceforth) invests in a project, of which the investment cost is funded by the private lending and the bank-tax-interaction (BTI, henceforth). We build a tractable model of optimal investment, liquidity and default decisions based on cash flows with liquidity shocks and profitability uncertainty. In contrast to the case with pure private lending, we discover that BTI delays investment and increases the firm value. Furthermore, BTI causes the SME to retain more cash reserves. We also find that the SME prefers to select the BTI as the main financing policy under the higher liquidity risk and small profitability uncertainty. Besides, the impact of debt maturity on financial policies with BTI depends on liquidity shock.     

The evaluation of complex urban policies Simulating the Willingness to Pay for the Benefits of Subsidy Programs

This paper considers the evaluation of urban renewal and other urban investment policies and the application of the aggregate willingness to pay criterion to investment decisions. Two rigorous approaches to the measurement of program benefits are examined. The two methods, ‘hedonic pricing’ and ‘quantal choice’, are compared by relying on a series of simulations.     

投资项目评价标准的比较与选择

净现值、内部收益率、获利指数等贴现指标在互斥项目选择的实际应用中,常导致不同的投资决策,其原因、解决方法是本文探讨的目的。文章首先对净现值和内部收益率进行比较分析,着重介绍了内部收益率的先天缺陷及替代方法MIRR;然后分析净现值和获利指数的主要差异,最后得出结论:净现值是确定条件下投资项目评价标准中最合理的方法,其他标准则需结合着净现值来运用,否则可能导致决策失误。     

Research on the impact of mega-projects on carrying capacity of cities taking the first-line project of the West-East gas pipeline as an example

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization, the functions and benefits of mega-projects are required higher. With the deepening of “the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”, the quantitative evaluation of multinational investment projects will help strengthen cross-border communication among government, society and enterprises, which provide a basis for mutual trust. This study empirically analyzes and evaluates the impact of mega-projects on carrying capacity of cities, by using the DID method based on the panel data of 15 cities in China from 2000 to 2013. The results show that the construction and operation of the first-line project of the West-East gas pipeline has a significant positive impact on the improvement of carrying capacity of cities along the line. However, the degree of impact on three dimensions is slightly different. The impact on the social carrying capacity is the greatest, then the ecological and economic carrying capacity. Therefore, the decisions of domestic mega-projects should be unified with urban planning to promote the sustainable development of China’s economy and social. The investment of mega-projects abroad should also be coordinated with the carrying capacity of host cities, in order to enhance the competitiveness and creativity of Chinese multinational mega-projects investment.     

矿产资源勘探开发项目现代投资决策方法的比较研究

本文对目前流行的投资决策方法(实期权定价,决策树分析与蒙特卡罗模拟法)从项目投资决策的角度进行了比较分析,指出了其各自的优缺点及适用范围,并对最具前景的期权定价法进行了重点阐述。分析结果显示,尽管各种方法存在某些差异,但事实上可以认为是同一投资决策方法框架下应用的不同形式,在应用实期权模拟项目复杂性时需要适当简化问题。未来的研究应当考虑矿产资源勘探开发项目中技术参数不确定性对项目价值与投资决策的影响。     

世界银行贷款项目对我国的影响

世界银行贷款作为我国改革开放以来利用外资的一种重要形式,对我国的经济建设发挥了一定的作用。本文通过对世界银行贷款项目介绍与回顾,总结其对我国社会经济的影响。     

铁路建设项目后评价运行机制的探讨

本文借鉴世界银行组织项目后评价理论与实践的成功经验,探讨了铁路建设项目后评价运行机制,为铁道部开展项目后评价工作提供了一定的理论依据。     

风险投资多项目多阶段投资组合决策研究

针对多项目多阶段风险投资,以提高风险投资收益率、成功率和降低投资风险为目标,构建了多项目多阶段投资总体概念模型。在此基础上,利用马可维茨投资决策模型进行项目筛选,然后建立决策树和三级模糊评价模型对单个项目多阶段投资进行决策,得到了在风险资本投资总额一定的情况下的多项目投资组合、项目的投资比例以及单个项目多阶段的投资方式和资金比例。     

Efficiency externalities of trade and alternative forms of foreign investment in OECD countries

The literature on the spillover effects of trade and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) has concentrated on technological externalities. Little effort has been directed towards identifying their efficiency externalities. This paper measures the efficiency externalities of trade and various forms of foreign investment for a sample of 20 OECD countries between 1982 and 2000 using a stochastic frontier approach. Trade and all foreign investment inflows are found to enhance efficiency, whereas outflows of FDI are found to exacerbate inefficiency. The efficiency externalities from foreign investment are contingent on the absorptive capacity of the host economies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EVALUATING MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: A CONCISE REVIEW OF SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed, and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyze some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are generated from econometric models. In practice, however, most macroeconomic forecasts, such as those from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the ECB, are typically based on econometric model forecasts jointly with human intuition. This seemingly inevitable combination renders most of these forecasts biased and, as such, their evaluation becomes nonstandard. In this review, we consider the evaluation of two forecasts in which: (i) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct econometric models; (ii) one forecast is generated from an econometric model and the other is obtained as a combination of a model and intuition; and (iii) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct (but unknown) combinations of different models and intuition. It is shown that alternative tools are needed to compare and evaluate the forecasts in each of these three situations. These alternative techniques are illustrated by comparing the forecasts from the (econometric) Staff of the Federal Reserve Board and the FOMC on inflation, unemployment, and real GDP growth. It is shown that the FOMC does not forecast significantly better than the Staff, and that the intuition of the FOMC does not add significantly in forecasting the actual values of the economic fundamentals. This would seem to belie the purported expertise of the FOMC.     

模糊综合评价方法在MD膜驱油项目后评价中的应用

结合MD膜驱油项目自身的特点,从经济、社会、环境、技术这四个方面建立指标体系,并运用模糊综合评价法理论进行了MD膜驱油项目后评价研究,旨在通过总结经验教训不断提高项目管理者的决策水平,为下一个周期项目实施制定投资决策和投资计划服务。     

合理优化设计节约项目投资

介绍了目前项目投资设计阶段的设计思路和设计对项目投资的影响,全方位分析了项目投资中未能实现设计优化的原因,提出了进一步优化设计、节约投资的几点切实可行的建议.     

Editorial introduction: Is the World Bank lending effective in developing countries?

This special issue of Economic Systems includes five papers about the World Bank lending in developing countries. The motivation for the special issue stems from the relatively extensive literature on the sister institution, namely, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but not on the World Bank itself. The papers’ focus is the influence of the World Bank lending on economic growth, education and health, poverty reduction, and regulation in the recipient countries. The papers’ findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of the World Bank lending in developing countries, which reflects both successes and shortcomings.     

我国城市基础设施投资运营体制改革的理论

文章从我国城市基础设施的特点和实践需要出发,分析论述了我国城市基础设施投资运营体制改革的基本理论:现代经济学中公共物品理论、城市基础设施的项目区分理论、西方或世界银行的基础设施可销售性区分理论.     

基于模糊神经网络的公共项目绩效评价模型研究——以发展结果为导向的理论框架构建

国内外对以发展结果为导向的公共项目绩效评价研究尚处于起步阶段。依据发展结果导向的公共项目绩效管理的设计与监测框架，运用模糊神经网络的算法，以原因、方法、方案、投入、活动等作为神经网络的输入，以项目的目标、成效、影响、结果、产出为输出，构建公共项目绩效评价模型，可以为公共项目绩效评价提供理论指导。