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1.
Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” to identify determinants of this geographic variation. Using the 2014 mid-term general election, it was found that the voter participation rate across states and the District of Columbia was positively related to whether there is a close governor’s race or a close U.S. Senate race, the female labor force participation rate, the percent of the population aged 65 and over, the number of referenda on the ballot, and the degree of voting-by-mail usage. In addition, it was found that voter turnout was negatively related to the percentages of the population that are either Hispanic or Afro-American. 相似文献
2.
Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. This empirical study seeks, within the context of a broadened
version of the ‘rational voter model,’ to identify determinants of this interstate variation. Using the 2004 general election
as the study period, it is found that the voter participation rate in a state is positively related to the percent of the
state's adult population with at least a high school education, the state's unemployment rate, the percent of the state's
population age 65 and older, and the female labor force participation rate in the state. In addition, it is found that voter
turnout in a state is negatively related to the state's median family income and the percentage of its population that is
Hispanic. 相似文献
3.
Richard J. Cebula 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2001,29(3):304-310
This paper empirically investigates the impact of the electoral college on voter participation rates across states. Two hypotheses are tested. The first argues that in states where either the Democratic or Republican party strongly dominates the other, voter participation rates are reduced the greater the degree of domination. The second states that in states where neither party overwhelmingly dominates the other, the smaller the majority of the dominant party over the minority party, the greater the voter participation rate. 相似文献
4.
Ajamu C. Loving Michael S. Finke John R. Salter 《The Review of Black Political Economy》2012,39(4):403-425
Prior literature has examined minority stock market participation and found that it increased rapidly throughout the 1990’s and into the early 2000’s. However, in 2004 after stock prices had suffered decline, Black and Hispanic market participation fell off sharply. This paper uses the NLSY 79 a panel data set to examine whether the diminished likelihood of Black and Hispanic 2004 market participation is due to race or variation in cognitive ability and investor experience. We find that IQ and investor experience subsume all racial effects in the likelihood of 2004 market participation. 相似文献
5.
This study seeks to identify contemporary factors that systematically explain the difference in the ratio of the female-to-male
voter participation rates, FVPR/MVPR, and the difference between the female and male voter participation rate levels, FVPR−MVPR,
in the U.S. Using state-level data form the 2004 Presidential election, it is found that both FVPR/MVPR and FVPR−MVPR are
an increasing function of the gender-specific unemployment rates, median earnings, educational attainment levels, population
age 65 and over, and the presence of a female governor in the state and a decreasing function of the gender-specific divorce
rates.
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6.
This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to reflect the potential impact
of the results of polls of likely voters’ Presidential candidate preferences on the expected benefits of voting and hence
on the voter participation rate. This study introduces the poll results hypothesis: in any given state, given the existence
of the Electoral College, the greater the lead of a principal Presidential candidate over his/her closest rival as revealed
in polls of likely voters, the lower, for at least some portion of prospective voters, the expected gross benefits of voting
in that state and hence the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. In a cross-section study of the 50
states during the 2004 general election, it is found, after allowing for a variety of other factors, that the greater the
lead (as revealed in polls of likely voters) of either of the principal Presidential candidates over the other in any given
state, the lower the voter turnout rate in that state.
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7.
Within the context of a broadened version of the “rational voter model,” this study empirically investigates a hypothesis
that asserts that within the context of the Electoral College System, the greater the degree to which either the Republican
Party or the Democratic Party dominates the other in any given state, the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in
that state. Using the 2004 Presidential election as the study period, the analysis includes a number of economic and demographic
variables. Using a different methodology than previous studies of voter turnout and the Electoral College System, as well
as more current data, this study finds strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis. It also is suggested that, logically,
the Electoral College System distorts the pattern of voter turnout across states.
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8.
Tim R. Sass 《Southern economic journal》2000,66(3):609-630
In recent years Voting Rights Act cases brought by Hispanic litigants challenging local election systems have proliferated. This article analyzes the effects of election systems and demographic factors on the electoral success of Hispanics in municipal elections. Ability to speak English well and educational attainment of non-Hispanics are important factors that boost Hispanic representation. On average district elections enhance Hispanic representation, though the impact of district elections varies directly with the level of residential segregation. Although some Blacks may support Hispanic candidates, I do not find any significant effects of increases in Black population on the electoral success of Hispanics. 相似文献
9.
Solomon Abayomi Olakojo 《Revue africaine de developpement》2020,32(1):67-79
The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals. 相似文献
10.
Richard J. Cebula 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2004,32(3):216-221
Using aggregate time series analysis, this empirical study extends the Copeland and Laband [2002] analysis of expressive voting. After allowing for economic considerations in the form of tax rates and inflation, it is found that even the aggregate voter participation rate may reflect emotional voting behavior. The Vietnam War, Watergate, public dissatisfaction with government, and the opportunity to participate in Presidential elections, each of which can be viewed at some level as an issue evoking emotional responses rather than mere cost-benefit computations, all prove to significantly affect voter participation rates. 相似文献
11.
Christopher M. Duquette Franklin G . MixonJr Richard J. Cebula 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2017,45(1):45-57
The impact of the Electoral College on U.S. presidential elections is often criticized by academics and political commentators. One facet of its impact, the winner-take-all allocation of states’ Electoral College votes, serves in practice to overweight some votes in some states relative to other votes in other states. These disparities in the relative impact of votes in a presidential election can be large. Here, a metric is introduced to quantify the magnitude of these disparities in each presidential election. Using that metric, we show that states whose votes were overweighted in a presidential election subsequently received higher levels of federal grant spending under the newly-elected (re-elected) administration. 相似文献
12.
Bernard Grofman Michael Migalski Nicholas Noviello 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1986,14(4):65-78
We look at the most general feature of multimember districts (MMDs) as compared to single-member districting (SMD) plans:
the higher likelihood of submergence of minority voting strength. We focus on data on black legislative representation between
1977 and 1982 in the 11 states with more than 15% black populations, and compare states which use MMDs with those that use
SMDs. We also examine changes in black representation in states which shifted from MMDs to SMDs. In addition, for MMD state
legislative elections in eight North Carolina counties between 1978 and 1982, we examine in detail the nature of minority
submergence including the lack of geographic representativity of the persons elected from MMDs. The counties we examine contain
four of North Carolina’s largest cities and a substantial portion of North Carolina’s black population. Unlike almost all
of the previously published literature on racial representation in MMDs, our study deals with state legislative races and
not local elections. 相似文献
13.
Frank A. Fratoe 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1993,22(2):41-71
This study is a first attempt to undertake formal research and policy analysis of a heretofore neglected topic, rural minority
business development. Data show that only about one-sixth of all minority-owned firms are located in rural (nonmetro) areas
with some groups recording even lower percentages. For example, only 11 percent of Hispanic firms were found in rural areas
in 1987. However, proportions of nonmetro Hispanic firms reach 20 to 50 percent in some southwestern states and proportions
of nonmetro black enterprises reach 30 to 70 percent in some southeastern states. Review of the research literature discloses
that rural minority businesses experience critical problems associated with four kinds of capital needed to support any successful
enterprise: physical, financial, social and human. Examples are given of programs devoted to rural enterprise development
which address problems related to the four forms of capital. Insights gleaned from the examples and additional observations
by policy analysts are used to suggest policy directions for expanding rural minority business. 相似文献
14.
Dave McRae 《Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies》2013,49(3):289-304
The rise of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) from small-town mayor to presidential frontrunner asks again whether new, alternative leaders could enter Indonesian politics in the 2014 elections. This article surveys Jokowi's impact on Indonesian politics over the past 12 months, and examines whether his election as Jakarta governor, and his evident popularity, has opened the way for alternative candidates at local level, or if it has changed parties’ calculations for the presidential election. The article concludes by considering whether a new leader could tackle some of the entrenched defects of democracy in Indonesia, given that he or she may have only minority support in the parliament. The article focuses in particular on corrupt law enforcement, the military and the rule of law, and violent religious intolerance. 相似文献
15.
On July 5, 2015, Greek voters were asked whether to approve or reject the terms of an austerity program offered by the European Union (EU) to resolve an ongoing financial crisis. With a turnout rate of 62.5% overall, 61.3% of Greeks voted “no.” While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout’s terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonias to 73.8% in Chanion. This paper presents empirical evidence on the determinants of the “no” vote across Greece’s 56 electoral districts. Our analysis is grounded in public choice theories of why large numbers of people turn out to vote in mass elections. In addition to controlling for standard “instrumental” vote motives, we ask whether political party labels, which serve as summary measures of partisan positioning, and party platforms, which express partisan preferences on ballot questions, are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Holding constant the unemployment rate and average voter age (at the regional level) and the fraction of young people casting ballots for the first time on July 5, 2015 (at the district level), we find that the percentage of ‘no’ votes was reduced significantly by voter support for Greece’s leading pro-austerity party (New Democracy) in the previous nationwide election held in January 2015. In contrast, voter support in January for the anti-austerity party (Syriza), led by sitting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, had no measurable impact on July’s referendum results. This finding offers support for both instrumental and expressive theories of voting and bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided by an institution of direct democracy. 相似文献
16.
James Jennings 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1982,12(1):47-63
Conclusion We found that there are indeed some slight differences in the electoral behavior of black voters when we separate them into
high and low socio-economic areal categories based on the level of median income. These slight differences include turnout
rates for primary and general elections and voter registration rates. The higher the socioeconomic status of the black electorate
in Boston, the higher the turnout and registration rates for that area tended to be; however, this relationship was not found
to be consistent among all the areas selected for study. Despite these differences in electoral behavior or “practices,” our
areal model does not suggest any significant political schisms based on the sicioeconomic indicators used. Black voters tended
to vote the same way on a number of city and state ballot questions, support the same candidates at both the city and state
level, and vote the liberal preference on both issues and candidates regardless of socioeconomic background. In addition,
there is some evidence that the higher a black voter is on the socioeconomic scale, the greater his or her tendency will be
to vote the liberal position on various issues and candidates. Our model also suggests that black voters will tend to support
black candidates regardless of some socioeconomic factors. If this model can be used as an indication of class differences
in the black community, then our data show that socioeconomic criteria are not as salient as race in determining the political
behavior and preferences of black voters. 相似文献
17.
In this article, the objective is to focus on the likelihood that politicians will rely on intergovernmental transfers to pursue political ambition. In what circumstances are incumbents more likely to rely on transfers to win votes, than to reward core supporters? How are constraints (introduced to ensure that politicians rely on predetermined formulae which reduce the incentive to design transfers to win re‐election) likely to influence “distributive politics?” Predictions in this article are tested with reference to intergovernmental transfers to 31 Mexican states between 2004 and 2012. 相似文献
18.
This article investigates the role of voter turnout in school bond election outcomes. It is widely believed that turnout is negatively related to bond approval rates. Conclusions from previous empirical research, however, may be misleading because many sociodemographic factors and election parameters that influence bond support are also likely to influence voter turnout decisions. To account for the endogeneity of turnout, we employ an instrumental variable approach. We find that the persistent part of voter turnout plays a negligible role in explaining bond approval shares conditioned on election timing, past voting behavior, and district characteristics. Using first‐difference models, change in turnout has a negative and significant influence on change in approval share and probability of bond success. Our results support previous research and suggest that targeted voter mobilization strategies have the potential to influence school bond outcomes. 相似文献
19.
Richard J. Cebula Christopher M. Duquette Franklin G. Mixon Jr. 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2013,41(3):203-213
This study empirically attempts to identify key factors determining the settlement patterns of undocumented immigrants within the United States. The estimations imply that undocumented immigrants appear to settle in states that border the Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, or the Gulf of Mexico, and states where median family income is higher, average January temperatures are higher, the percent of the state population that is Hispanic is higher, and where economic freedom is higher. On the other hand, undocumented immigrants are less likely to settle in states with a higher cost of living. 相似文献
20.
Gavin M. Chen 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1986,15(2):93-111
The migration of people from the developing nations to the industrialized world has created significant minority population
concentrations in those industrialized countries. Invariably, the minority population (generally black, Hispanic, and/or Asian)
occupies the lower end of the socioeconomic distribution spectrum because of lower levels of educational achievement and higher
unemployment rates. The host countries confronted with these issues of minority inequities are exploring a variety of alternatives
to alleviate the socioeconomic problems; one of which is minority business development. This article looks at the industrialized
countries of Canada, France, Great Britain, Holland, West Germany, and the United States, and how they are addressing the
issue of minority business development. The size and diversity of the minority population, the economic, social, and political
conditions under which they migrate, and the host country recognition of their status affects the economic climate and the
development success of this business sector, formed outside of their native habitats. Although conditions differ from country
to country, minority businesses in general suffer from similar problems of capital access, market restrictions, and general
management inadequacies. The developmental path of these business sectors are, however, affected by the host country policy
and the official programs designed specifically to address their needs. 相似文献