劳动力转移、技术诱导及其实现条件:477个样本

以水稻生产中两种劳动节约技术(品种技术和机械技术)组合为例,利用川渝两地477家农户的调查数据,运用probit模型分析劳动力转移对农户采纳劳动节约技术的诱导效应,同时论证了该效应的实现条件。结果表明:如果不考虑农业要素市场完善程度等实现条件的差异,劳动力转移对农户采纳劳动节约技术没形成诱导,反而产生了负效应。而按照实现条件的满足与否进行分组回归发现:在实现条件满足的前提下,劳动力转移对农户采纳节约劳动技术的诱导效应才得以实现。     

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Technology Adoption on Farmers' Well‐being Using Propensity‐Score Matching Analysis in Rural China

The present paper assesses the impact of improved upland rice technology on farmers' well‐being. The study uses propensity‐score matching to address the problem of ‘self‐selection,’ because technology adoption is not randomly assigned. It applies this procedure to household survey data collected in Yunnan, China in 2000, 2002 and 2004. The findings indicate that improved upland rice technology has a robust and positive effect on farmers' well‐being, as measured by income levels and the incidence of poverty. The effect of technology on well‐being shows a diminishing impact on producers' incomes. This implies that newer innovations are continuously needed to replace older technologies that have reached their saturation points.     

Are Factor Substitutions in HMO Industry Operations Cost Saving?

Past research on the potentials for cost-saving scale and scope economies in multiproduct HMO operations in the United States are incomplete in their economics of the underlying technology structure. This article exploits the translog cost model estimates of all past studies of HMO production to infer the extent to which pairwise factor substitutions (e.g., administrative services vs. medical care resources, e.g., hospital days, physician services) suggest potential for cost savings in groups and independent practice associations. Given the industry's nonhomothetic production over a 20-year period, the conceptually valid Morishima elasticity measure at constant output reveals limited cost-saving potentials from factor interchange and input demands. These opportunities differ for groups and IPAs across Medicare and non-Medicare products. My findings add a timely and significant dimension to understanding potential cost savings in HMO operations. Policy suggestions and cost implications are rationalized in light of the declining Medicare HMO enrollment and recent changes in factor input prices.     

Mandatory IFRS Adoption and the Role of Accounting Earnings in CEO Turnover

We study whether mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is associated with changes in the sensitivity of CEO turnover to accounting earnings and how the impact of IFRS adoption varies with country‐level institutions and firm‐level incentives. We find that CEO turnover responds more to a firm's accounting performance after adoption. This increase in turnover‐to‐earnings sensitivity is concentrated in countries with stronger enforcement of financial reporting and is more prominent for mandatory adopters that have strong firm‐level compliance incentives. In addition, we link the change in turnover‐to‐earnings sensitivity directly to accounting changes due to IFRS adoption and find a stronger adoption effect when firms report large overall accounting changes and large de‐recognition of loss provisions upon adoption. Some of the above findings are sensitive to the exclusion of UK firms, which account for more than half of our sample.     

Growth Patterns and Inequality in the Presence of Costly Technology Adoption

The stylized facts that motivate this article include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. We interpret the adoption cost as the resources expended in acquiring skills associated with new technologies. Endogenous growth occurs in our model largely as a result of human capital deepening. The analytical results of the model characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These outcomes are labeled ‘poverty trap,’ ‘dual economy,’ and ‘balanced growth.’ The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns in addition to the divergence of incomes over time and across countries.     

Political institutions,resources, and war: Theory and evidence from ancient Rome

How does a governing coalition’s size affect the extent and type of violence in society? The model developed here predicts that larger coalitions are less likely to fight for private goods (e.g., plunder) than for public goods (e.g., defense), yet this substitution need not reduce the overall scale of fighting. That prediction is tested by investigating how Rome’s transition from Republic to Empire affected military patterns. The raw data and three empirical tests suggest that the Republic engaged in more battles overall and that Republican battles had more of a public goods component. This study furthers our empirical knowledge about the ancient world while bringing data to bear on contemporary debates about the causes of peace and war.     

The Effect of Service Capability on Operating Costs: An Empirical Study of Ontario Hospitals*

Abstract. We examine variations in the relation between a hospital's level of service capability and the operating costs of its departments and activities (e.g., surgery, laboratory, laundry). We propose a model of the hospital as a set of concentric, interrelated services organized around a core mission to provide patient care. We hypothesize that increases in service capability (i.e., complexity of operations) will increase overall operating costs. At the departmental level, we expect variations in service capability to have a greater cost impact in departments that are closer to the patient. We examine these issues using 1986 data from 154 acute-care hospitals. We disaggregate total operating costs into 18 pools that together account for 84 percent of all operating costs. We find that models with aggregate drivers explain about 90 percent of the variance in overall hospital costs. Complexity is found to be a significant determinant of overall operating costs. At the departmental level, models with department-specific drivers dominate models that employ aggregate drivers. We find that approximately 45 percent of hospital operating costs are significantly associated with the complexity of care provided. There is only limited support for the claim that the effect of the complexity of care provided on operating costs increases as the extent of a department's direct contact with the patient increases. Hence, although our results suggest that the complexity of care should be accounted for in any cost allocation and reimbursement scheme, they also suggest that finding the “right” level of adjustment is a difficult task because complexity differentially affects costs in the various departments. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent les variations observées dans la relation entre le niveau de la capacité de service d'un hôpital, d'une part, et les coûts d'exploitation de ses services et de ses activités (chirurgie, laboratoire, blanchisserie, par exemple), d'autre part. Dans le modèle qu'ils proposent, l'hôpital est une organisation de services concentriques reliés entre eux et qui s'articulent autour d'une mission principale, celle de la prestation de soins aux patients. Ils posent l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'augmentation de la capacité de service (c'est-à-dire de la complexité de l'exploitation) entraîne une hausse des coûts d'exploitation globaux. À l'échelon des services, les variations dans la capacité de service devraient, selon les auteurs, avoir une incidence plus marquée sur les coûts des services qui sont plus près des patients. Ces questions sont analysées à l'aide de données de 1986 relatives à 154 hôpitaux de soins actifs. Les auteurs procèdent à la désagrégation des coûts totaux d'exploitation en 18 groupes de coûts qui, ensemble, représentent 84 pour cent du total des coûts d'exploitation. Ils constatent que les modèles dont les inducteurs de volume sont agrégés expliquent environ 90 pour cent de l'écart dans les coûts globaux des hôpitaux. La complexité, concluent-ils, est un déterminant majeur des coûts globaux d'exploitation. À l'échelon des services, les modèles dont les inducteurs de volume sont propres aux services ont préséance sur les modèles qui font appel à des inducteurs agrégés. Les auteurs constatent qu'environ 45 pour cent des coûts d'exploitation des hôpitaux présentent un lien marqué avec la complexité des soins dispensés. L'affirmation selon laquelle l'incidence de la complexité des soins dispensés sur les coûts d'exploitation augmente avec l'intensité du contact du service avec les patients n'est que faiblement étayée. En conséquence, bien que les résultats obtenus par les auteurs donnent à penser que la complexité des soins doit être prise en compte dans tout plan de répartition et de remboursement des coûts, ces résultats indiquent également que la détermination du niveau approprié d'ajustement est une tâche difficile, étant donné que l'influence de la complexité sur les coûts varie selon les services.     

The Diffusion of a Medical Innovation: Is Success in the Stars?

This paper relates the diffusion of the coronary stent to the presence of prominent or “star” physicians within a local peer group. The paper uses panel data on coronary care in Florida covering the period immediately following the 1995 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of the stent, a significant improvement in coronary angioplasty. Adoption timing and utilization varied considerably across doctors between 1995 and 2001. We consider the role of asymmetric social influence among physicians based on professional status. Defining “star” status as having completed residency at a top-ranked hospital, we find that the diffusion of stents by non-stars depends positively on the number of stars practicing contemporaneously at the same hospitals, while we find no social influence in the opposite direction. The findings indicate that lack of local exposure to star physicians may slow adoption, and clustering of stars in a small number of hospitals may entail welfare costs.     

Which firms benefit from robot adoption? Evidence from China

This paper investigates which firms benefit from robot adoption in a developing open economy such as China. First, we construct a unique comprehensive dataset to identify robot adoption in Chinese industrial firms. Second, we adopt difference-in-differences to provide empirical analysis after conducting the common trends tests. Third, we find that adopting robots significantly increases a series of firm performance indicators in robot adoption firms. Compared with adopting firms in the labor-intensive sector, firms in the capital-intensive sector significantly benefit from robot adoption in a series of firm performance indicators, e.g., employment, capital stock, output, total factor productivity, capital returns, and exports. Finally, we check the robustness, investigate the dynamic effects, and find persistent positive effects. Our findings shed some light on the impacts of robot adoption in developing and transition countries.     

Nonprice rivalry among health insurers and coverage of new technologies

This paper develops a multiple-period theoretical model of health maintenance organization (HMO) coverage of medical procedures as a function of HMO competition and a market's predisposition toward managed care. Previous empirical results regarding one laser procedure were not predicted by a single-period model. The new model predicts that more favorable predisposition toward managed care is positively associated with coverage of procedures for which coverage is discretionary. The empirical analysis in this paper focuses on 13 additional laser procedures. The new empirical findings are different from the previous findings and are more consistent with the hypotheses generated by the new theoretical model.The data were obtained under a grant from the Office of Technology Assessment (HMO Laser Procedure Coverage) and the University of Michigan Rackham Pre-doctoral Fellowship (InterStudy). The authors would like to thank an anonymous reviewer and participants at a session sponsored by the International Atlantic Economic Society at the 1998 Allied Social Science Association meetings, Chicago, IL, for their helpful comments. Any remaining errors belong to the authors.     

湘中民俗旅游开发的关键措施及主要产品设计思路

开发湘中民俗旅游有四大关键问题亟需得到有效解决,这要求采取对湘中民俗旅游发展具有关键作用的七个方面的措施。并且,在明确湘中民俗旅游开发主题的前提下,理清民俗旅游产品的设计思路,构建一个湘中民俗旅游主要产品的体系。     

Electronics-based automation technologies and the onset of systemofacture: Implications for Third World industrialization

This paper considers the implications of emergent best-practice techniques for Third World industrial strategies. These new techniques are described in historical context, and are considered to consist of two major developments. These are the adoption of systemic, electronics-based automation technologies, and the adoption of Japanese-style just-in-time production techniques. The implications for Third World industrialization are considered in four major areas, namely: policies concerning technological diffusion; networking and infrastructure; skill acquisition; and the role of design in comparative advantage.     

Challenges Facing Agricultural Extension Agents: A Case Study from South‐western Ethiopia

Abstract: This article examines the working conditions of extension workers and constraints to the adoption of modern agricultural technologies/practices in south‐western Ethiopia. Data collected from 85 extension workers form the empirical basis for the study. The empirical results indicate that extension work in the study area has not been participatory in its nature, little consideration was given to farmers’ experiences and knowledge, and extension workers lack practical skills. In addition to deciding on who should take part in the extension programme, extension agents are found to supply more services to those farmers who are financially sound and show interest in the programme. The study reveals that apart from the fact that the number of extension workers in the study area is very small, their qualification and communication skills leave a lot to be desired. The study makes it also clear that a host of factors obstructs the promotion/adoption of modern agricultural technologies/practices in the study area.     

“新农合”与农民耐用品消费:消费层次和区域比较

基于2010年中国综合社会调查( CGSS)数据,在考虑消费观念中介作用条件下,研究新农合对农民生存型、发展型、享受型耐用品消费的影响。结果表明,新农合对农民生存型、发展型耐用品消费影响显著,对享受型耐用品消费影响不显著。主要体现为即期消费观念对农民耐用品消费的影响比超前消费观念大,新农合在中部地区对农民耐用品消费的影响和全国基本一致,在东、西部地区的影响情况差异较大。应因地制宜发挥新农合对农民消费的促进作用,扩大农民耐用品消费。     

我国农业机械化演进轨迹与或然走向

基于诱致性技术变迁的视角,运用1990～2009年时间序列数据分析农村居民的工资性收入对农户采用农业机械决策的影响。结果表明,工资性收入对农户采用农业机械的决策具有显著效应,工资性收入增加,农业机械采用水平也会增加。20世纪90年代以来我国农业机械使用水平的大幅上升主要是因为农业劳动力相对稀缺导致的,因此要改变优先发展农业生物化学技术的观点,而应注重农业机械技术与生物化学技术并重发展。     

Balanced development: Maoist conception and Chinese practice

This paper explores the economic reality behind the balanced development aspect of the Chinese development strategy more thoroughly than has been done previously. Firstly, it introduces material from the Wan-sui volumes to shed more light on its economic ideology, but mainly it uses the recently available macroeconomic information about the Chinese economy to examine how empirically the policy was put into effect, what its implications were for the intersectoral allocation of investment, choice of technologies, etc., and what its effects were in terms of incomes and employment. A final section compares the strategy with the ‘balanced growth’ policies of Western economic literature and the ‘harmonic growth’ advocated by Kornai.     

Environmental motivations behind individuals’ energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving behaviour: evidence from Germany,the Netherlands and Belgium

The impact of environmental motivations on the individual’s decisions regarding investments in energy efficiency and the adoption of energy-saving habits are analysed on the basis of a representative online survey carried out in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Various energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving activities are considered. Accounting for endogeneity in the basic estimation model, in particular regarding energy conservation activities, the subject’s experience with extreme weather events are used as an instrument for environmental motivations. This study provides empirical evidence that individual energy efficiency investments are generally driven by environmental motivations. Additionally, for the Dutch and the German sub-samples environmental motivations positively affect daily energy-saving activities. The findings suggest that policy programmes aimed at raising environmental awareness and forming pro-environmental motivations can lead to an increase in energy efficiency investments and daily energy-saving activities.     

Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services

Canada’s trade in commercial services appears inconsistent with what manufacturing-oriented Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts. Canada’s services trade is overwhelmingly intra-industry, involving countries whose factor proportions and demand patterns are similar—findings consistent with the ‘new’ trade theory, and the Linder hypothesis: that there is a uni-directional causal relationship flowing from the similarity (convergence) in demand patterns amongst trading partners, to Canada’s exports to those partners. Support for this conjecture is found for the US, the UK, and Japan. We infer that liberalization of trade in commercial services is likely welfare enhancing, with gains greater within trade arrangements and entities such as the NAFTA, the EU, and the OECD.     

Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Financial Statement Comparability

This study examines whether mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) leads to capital market benefits through enhanced financial statement comparability. U.K. domestic standards are considered very similar to IFRS, suggesting any capital market benefits observed for U.K.‐domiciled firms are more likely attributable to improvements in comparability (i.e., better precision of across‐firm information) than to changes in information quality specific to the firm (i.e., core information quality). If IFRS adoption improves financial statement comparability, we predict this should reduce insiders' ability to benefit from private information. Consistent with these expectations, we find that abnormal returns to insider purchases ― used to proxy for private information ― are reduced following IFRS adoption. Similar results obtain across numerous subsamples and proxies used to isolate IFRS effects attributable to comparability. Together, the findings are consistent with mandatory IFRS adoption improving comparability and thus leading to capital market benefits by reducing insiders' ability to exploit private information.     

Labour-Saving Technologies in the Javanese Rice Economy: Recent Developments and a Look into the 1990s

Rising labour costs and declining terms of trade for rice farmers on Java during the 1980s have encouraged the adoption of labour-saving technologies. This paper uses extensive field survey evidence to illustrate current patterns of labour-displacing technological change in the Javanese rice economy. It presents the recent introduction of pre-emergence herbicides as a potential revolution in labour-saving technologies, comparable to that of small rice mills and sickles. The evidence shows that the growing use of tractors and machine threshers is further reducing labour inputs. These changes will have a profound effect on the role of women in rice agriculture. The paper compares the transition in the Javanese rice economy with that experienced elsewhere in Asia, and shows that the adoption of labour-saving technologies has occurred more slowly on Java than in other countries in the region.