Exchange Rate Regimes and Unemployment

Using data on 78 countries over 1980 to 2008 and a host of controls, this paper finds that switching from a floating regime to a pegged or an intermediate regime is likely to substantially reduce unemployment. Using a three-way regime classification, the estimated effect of switching to a pegged (to an intermediate) regime is around two percentage points (around one percentage point) after 2 years. These results are robust to variations in both specification and three-way classification. When using a four-way classification, we find evidence that switching from a float to a hard peg is most likely to reduce unemployment.     

论可持续人民币汇率制度

汇率制度的选择关系到一国宏观经济目标的实现和金融安全。从理论上说,均衡汇率的确定、汇率制度的选择是基于一定理论模式的,而从世界各国的实践人们却并不能总结出一条概括性的经验。作为发展中国家熏中国应从本国实际出发,借鉴世界其他国家的发展经历,重视经济的真实基本面因素的良性发展,营造一个适当的环境,使可持续人民币汇率安排既具有稳定性又具有灵活性;国际上,在考虑其他各国利益的同时最大化本国利益。     

Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asian-Pacific Region

This survey is designed to complemenl Treadgold's on Macroeconomic Manugement (APEL March 1990) by reviewing the literature on exchange rate regimes with reference to the Asian-Pacific region. After a brief typology of exchange rate regimes, the article discusses the choice between currency system, the relationship between choice of regime and policy objectives, constraints on choice of regimes, the distinction between 'traded' and 'non-traded' goods, the 'booming' export sector case and finally the relevance of regulatory distortions and the related question of transition from one regime to amiher.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization

Open Economies Review - This paper studies the effect of seven types of exchange rate regimes on business cycle synchronization, by using a new dataset on bilateral de-facto exchange rate regimes...     

The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

This article investigates the behavior of real exchange rates under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Using data from both the Bretton Woods and the modern floating periods, we decompose real exchange rate movements into components attributable to supply shocks, real demand shocks, monetary shocks, capital flows shocks, and real oil price shocks. Empirical results show that real demand shocks are an important source of real exchange rate movements under both fixed and flexible rates, while monetary shocks are negligible. Supply and oil price shocks seem to be more important under Bretton Woods, while capital flows shocks seem to explain a relatively higher proportion of real exchange rate movements under the modern floating period.     

汇率制度分类理论述评

国际货币基金组织完全依据一国当局宣布的政策、制度对汇率制度进行归类,这是一种名义分类法。名义分类法没有真实反映一国汇率制度的现实运行,因而催生了实际分类法。实际分类法通过对汇率制度运行中可观察变量及相关信息的评估,特别是汇率实际行为的评估来归类汇率制度。各种实际分类方案是沿着三条基本途径归类汇率制度,因这些分类方案有着不同的理论假设,分类程序、分析技术也各不相同,因而,最终的分类结果也会有较大出入。本文介绍并分析了各种分类方案的特点,同时对实际分类法可能存在的问题进行了总结和评论。     

Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

Persistence of Output Fluctuations Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

In a recent paper, Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence that suggests that the time required by output to return to trend following a financial shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper, we use vector autoregression models to measure the persistence properties of output for a number of countries in the Asia–Pacific region. Our results suggest that output persistence is not uniquely related to a country's choice of exchange rate regime. The two countries in our sample with the least persistent output following a financial shock are Australia, where the exchange rate is fully flexible, and Hong Kong, where it is rigidly fixed via a currency board.     

The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong and Taiwan

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic performance of a small- open economy depends on the choice of exchange rate regimes. Hong Kong and Taiwan - two economies with many similar macroeconomic characteristics, but different in their choices of exchange rate regimes - provide a good setting to study the relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and macro-economic performance. We examine the basic facts of growth and inflation and the coefficients' stability of their vector autoregression (VAR), as well as cyclical characters of other aggregate variables in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our empiric finding indicates that macroeconomic performance is not systematically related to exchange rate regimes.     

汇率制度选择及其标准的演变

汇率制度选择研究历来就是在标准的分析框架下,根据不同的制度选择标准进行的,恰当的分析框架和合理的选择标准缺一不可。在分析框架上,主流汇率制度选择理论经历了M -F-D范式向新开放经济宏观经济学范式的演变;在制度选择标准上,则经历了由宏观稳定性标准向微观的福利性标准发展演变的历程。本文对此做了扼要的回顾并对以后的研究提出了一些建议。指出了已有研究对中国人民币汇率制度选择和进一步完善的指导意义。     

汇率制度转型的国际经验及对中国的启示

本文通过对20世纪90年代以来的新型市场经济国家的汇率制度转型的研究,认为:自愿转型的在转型前通常宏观经济情况良好,具有平稳的GDP增长、良好的国际收支、充足的外汇储备以及较强的金融监管能力等;危机推动转型的在转型前往往宏观经济情况恶化,GDP增长放缓、国际收支巨额赤字、外汇储备大幅减少以及较差的金融监管能力。自愿转型对经济没有负面影响,而危机推动的转型会对经济产生较大的负面冲击。最后总结了对我国汇率制度改革值得借鉴的经验。     

Testing the Unstable Middle and Two Corners Hypotheses About Exchange Rate Regimes

The recent rash of international currency crises has generated considerable interest in the role that exchange rate regimes have played in contributing to these crises. Many economists have argued that efforts to operate adjustably pegged exchange rate regimes have been a major contributor to “the unstable middle” hypothesis and some have argued that this unstable middle is so broad that only the two corners of hard fixes or floating rates will be stable in a world of high capital mobility—the two corners or bipolar hypothesis. Two recent empirical studies by researchers at the International Monetary Fund reach opposing conclusions on these issues. We examine the issue further and show that conclusions can be quite sensitive to how exchange rate regimes are grouped into categories and the measures of currency crises that are used. In general we find that the dead center of the adjustable peg is by far the most crisis prone broad type of exchange rate regimes, but that countries need not go all the way to freely floating rates or hard fixes to substantially reduce the risks of currency crises.

人民币汇率体制的历史演变及其启示

当前关于人民币汇率体制及汇率水平调整的讨论许多针对汇率与近期中国国际收支平衡的相互关系。这些讨论无疑有助于全面认识问题,帮助形成有意义的政策思路。另一方面,为使这种讨论的范围进一步扩大,联系到国内经济发展和国际经济环境变化,我们还可以从历史角度考察人民币汇率体制调整的历史经验及可能给当前思路带来的启示。本文以下着重结合20世纪70年代前后的情况说明当时人民币汇率调整的国内外背景及主要内容、意义和经验。一、人民币汇率调整的主要历史时期人民币作为中华人民共和国统一的法定货币,出现于20世纪40年代末并在50年代初…     

新兴经济强国的汇率制度选择:国际经验与中国的应对

新兴经济强国在其崛起过程中必然面临汇率制度选择的两难困境。一方面,新兴经济强国的崛起需要一个相时稳定的汇率制度为其经济发展服务;另一方面,新兴经济强国的日渐崛起和国际经济地位的提升必然会对本币产生强大的升值压力。如何处理币值稳定与化解升值压力之间的矛盾将是考验一个新兴经济强国能否顺利崛起的关键。本文认为中国作为全球最具活力的经济体,从长期来看实行浮动汇率制度是大势所趋,但在近期,由于中国国内金融体系不健全,人民币还不具备自由浮动的条件。未来人民币汇率制度改革的方向应是在继续控制资本流动的情况下,通过一些中间性的汇率制度安排,不断增强人民币汇率的灵活性,并逐渐向浮动汇率制度过渡。     

日本汇率政策失败所带来的教训--以"尼克松冲击"和"广场协议"为例

2003年10月7日,日本内阁特别顾问、Hitotsubashi大学经济学院黑田东彦教授(HaruhikoKuroda)在中国社会科学院进行了题为“日本汇率政策失误所带来的教训”的演讲,并对中国汇率制度改革和汇率政策调整提出了建议。一、日本的教训可以给中国以借鉴目前,包括西方七国集团在内...     

Exchange Rate Economics

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative “behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.

从“蒙代尔三角”看人民币汇率制度的选择

本文从“蒙代尔三角”和克鲁格曼汇率目标区理论出发,分析了在保持货币政策独立性的情况下资本自由流动与汇率稳定在一定程度上同时并存的可能性,进而提出在一个类似于钟摆效应的区间内,一国当局可以在一定的幅度内灵活地根据实际经济情况来选择和调整它的汇率政策和对资本流动情况的控制;在此基础上,通过对波兰和部分东南亚国家经验和教训的分析,本文提出人民币汇率制度必须在稳定中增加弹性的观点。     

汇率制度改革与人民币汇率联动的特征研究

文章以2000年1月4日至2015年12月31日为样本期间,运用基于多元互相关方法的汇率联动网络模型,分析人民币与全球52个主要货币的汇率联动关系。结果表明:第一,全球汇率波动存在以美元、人民币、丹麦克朗为主,新元、林吉特、瑞士法郎等货币为辅的汇率联动板块;第二,汇率联动以人民币、美元等货币为核心的板块联动溢出效应最为显著,且板块内货币之间有明显地理临近的联动特性;第三,以人民币为核心货币的汇率联动关系具有持续的稳定性,这有利于形成人民币汇率市场化改革的稳定预期。