Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

Impact of Casino Gambling and Lotteries on Demand for Other ‘Sin’ Goods

Atlantic Economic Journal - Public policy aimed at reducing consumption of tobacco or alcohol products often results in purchases of lower-taxed alternatives. Many studies find tobacco and alcohol...     

An alternative benchmark for the validity of China’s GDP growth statistics

The veracity of China’s official statistics on GDP growth rates is a matter of debate in both the popular media and academic literature. Given the level of institutional development, its size, complexity and fast pace of change as an emerging economy, there are good reasons to expect that producing reliable and consistent estimates for GDP is difficult. An alternative benchmark would therefore be useful. We propose a benchmark index for the nominal GDP growth constructed bottom-up from publically available and audited total Revenue numbers of 150 major Chinese listed companies covering 19 industry sectors. This benchmark index closely tracks the official statistics, but with some interesting deviations. Validation by using Gross Margin numbers for our Chinese sample and US data produced similar results. The methodology also allowed us to produce estimates of growth at the industry level, which highlights some important changes underway in the structure growth patterns of the Chinese economy.     

Estimating the capital charge for external fraud risk： A clinical study

The main objective of this paper is to estimate the economic capital for covering the external fraud risk within a financial institution. This is a kind of operational risk which is due to acts of a type intended to defraud, misappropriate property or circumvent the law, by a third party. From the methodological point of view, we apply the Loss Distribution Approach （LDA）, based on the Internal Operational Loss Database （IOLD） provided by a Spanish Saving Bank. More specifically, we asses the potential impact of the severity distribution on the Capital at Risk （CAR）. In absence of normality, we try to adjust the Lognormal, Weibull and Exponential functions when modelling the severity of losses. As a result, we find a high divergence in terms of capital charge depending on the statistical model selected. In consequence, in order to obtain a realistic model, we highlight the relevance of the goodness of fit between the empirical and the theoretical distribution.     

Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

Review of the EU’s Preliminary Assessment of China’s Market Economy Status

I. Introduction In late June 2004, the EUmade a decision on its Preliminary Assessment of the People’s Republic of China’s Request for Graduation to Market Economy Statusin Trade DefenseInvestigations. This preliminary result came out after China lodged the request in June2003. The EU assessment report holdsthatbefore it can be granted thestatus, China needsto make substantialprogress in fourfields:government intervention, corporate governance,property and bankruptcy laws, and the f…     

China’s new lost generation: the casualty of China’s economic transformation

China’s surge into global middle-income status over the space of three decades has been spectacular. However, a potentially large and burdensome cost has been imposed on a generation of adolescents and young adults who abandoned the countryside, and with it access to basic education, in order to seek the anticipated advantages of jobs in the country’s burgeoning urban-industrial sector. This large swath of off-farm migrants transformed China. It propelled China to the status of the ‘world’s factory’ and created the scale and accumulated learning-by-doing enabling China’s transition to a ‘knowledge economy’ that no longer depends on the labor of China’s new ‘Lost Generation.’ As the Lost Generation and its left-behind children, who suffer from a chronic lack of schooling, thicken the lower tail of China’s income distribution, it may be the rising, prosperous urban middle class that ultimately incurs the social, economic, and political challenges associated with China’s generation of off-farm migrant households once essential for launching China’s economic ascent.     

Accession of the people’s republic of china

The Ministerial Conference Decision of 10 NOV.2001 Having regard to paragraph 2 of Article Ⅻ and paragraph 1 of Article Ⅸ of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization, and the Decision—Making Procedures under Articles Ⅸ and Ⅻ of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization agreed by the General Council (WT/L/93). Taking note of the application 0f the People‘s Republic of China for accession to the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organiza-     

Modeling Russia’s exchange rate in the long-run

This paper investigates long-run behavior of Russian real effective exchange rate. Due to high dependence on natural resources’ exports and, at the same time, absence of stable domestic policy, unexpected and/or excessive changes in the real exchange rate might negatively affect the Russian economy, causing large welfare costs. Since the determinants as well the causal links to different fundamental determinants are not straightforward, we employ the Johansen cointegration framework in order to determine factors that drive real exchanges rate in the long run. Compared to previous research on the Russian exchange rate, we expand the period of observations and construct potential determinants in a not traditional way, but as differences between domestic and foreign variables. This proceeding might also be relevant for researches, dedicated to another countries’ exchange rates.     

Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tweets frequently to communicate his thoughts to the public. We quantitatively evaluate the impact of Trump's China-related tweets on the Chinese stock market. We find that following Trump’s inauguration, his tweets with a positive sentiment significantly increase abnormal returns for the manufacturing industry in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, an increase in the absolute value of his positive sentiment increases both the trading volume and volatility of the market. The positive effect is more pronounced for those subindustries with high exposure to international trade and stronger business relations with the United States than for other subindustries. The results are robust for various sensitivity tests.     

Protocol on the accession of the people’s republic of china

Preamble The World Trade Organization (“WTO“), pursuant to the approval of the Ministerial Conference of the WTO accorded under Article Ⅻ of the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization (“WTO Agreement“), and the People‘s Republic of China (“China“). Recalling that China was an original contracting party to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947. Taking note that China is a signatory to the Final Act Embodying the Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiati...     

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s†

There is growing interest in the ways in which, and the values according to which, economic activity is undertaken. For instance, mutual ownership has been identified as one means of helping to ‘redeem’ capitalism. This article engages with such issues by examining aspects of the behaviour of consumer cooperative societies in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s. It starts by discussing whether cooperatives represent a means of conceptualizing and undertaking economic activity that provides an alternative to the paradigm of investor‐led (neo)liberal capitalism. From this, and an outline history of consumer cooperatives in Scotland, it identifies two variables—dividend on purchases and funds for education—as proxies for the values underpinning cooperatives’ economic behaviour. Analysis of these variables indicates the existence of distinct cultures of cooperation, notably in the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas. The article concludes by offering two ‘lessons from history’ for those interested in alternative economic networks. The first is that cooperation can, and has, conceptualized and sustained an alternative to the dominant (neo)liberal economic paradigm. The second is that the scaling‐up of such voluntaristic economic thought and behaviour is unlikely to present a macro‐level challenge to it.     

BREXIT referendum’s impact on the financial markets in the UK

Review of World Economics - BREXIT might be considered the most paramount event of the past 40 years in modern English history. The present research attempts to examine the impact of...     

The ‘Visible Hand’ of the ECB’s first quantitative easing

Quantitative easing à la ECB has produced significant impact on long-term nominal rates through ex ante channels, such as signalling channels, term duration channels, and risk premia channels, well before it materially started. Ex post difference-in-differences estimation suggests a significant impact on long-term government bond yields, while the impact of the ECB’s first QE on the key inflation rate is very weak. The term duration channel may also lead to a lengthening of the average maturity of government debts, with possible implications for fiscal policy. The ECB’s determination to buy government bonds in a fragmented market with a low net supply is also producing an ex post impact, i.e. during the actual asset purchases. High rates volatility suggests that this impact is less on nominal rates and more on financial plumbing. As the effects of scarce supply in collateral markets are felt, repo rates remain well below zero. Low supply and limited re-usability of high quality collateral, capped by regulatory requirements, is an additional constraint on market liquidity and compresses dealers’ balance sheets. By keeping a depressed yield curve and asset prices high, QE is also accelerating the consolidation of both traditional and capital-market based (dealer) bank business models, raising questions about implications for global collateral flows and deposit-like funding channels.