Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence

We explore theoretically and empirically the relationship between intraindustry trade and the skill premium. Our model features a Chamberlinian-type mechanism of income distribution based on quasi-homothetic consumer preferences, non-homothetic production, and factor-biased scale economies at the firm level. The analysis focuses on a two-country, one-sector model of intraindustry trade with two factor inputs consisting of high-skilled and low-skilled labor. We find that a move from autarky to free trade (a) raises the output of the representative firm and its level of total factor productivity, and (b) reduces (raises) the relative wage of high-skilled workers under the hypothesis of output-skill substitutability (output-skill complementarity). Plant-level evidence from Mexico supports the empirical relevance of the proposed income-distribution mechanism.     

Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants

This paper examines the role of international trade in the reallocation of U.S. manufacturing within and across industries from 1977 to 1997. Motivated by the factor proportions framework, we introduce a new measure of industry exposure to international trade that focuses on where imports originate rather than on their overall level. We find that plant survival and growth are negatively associated with industry exposure to low-wage country imports. Within industries, we show that manufacturing activity is disproportionately reallocated towards capital-intensive plants. Finally, we provide the first evidence that firms adjust their product mix in response to trade pressures. Plants are more likely to switch industries when exposure to low-wage countries is high.     

Protection and unemployment

Job loss concerns strongly influence the politics of trade, yet the formal political economy of trade literature has largely ignored unemployment. This paper seeks to extend the literature by merging an unemployment model with a trade policy model. The theory implies that labor turnover rates and unionization rates may significantly affect protection for individual industries. I use US data to test the model and find that protection for an industry declines with its turnover rate and increases with its unionization rate. The results also imply that protection does not increase with output and increases with the number of unemployed workers.     

Innovation and trade with heterogeneous firms

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects the innovation incentives of firms, and what this implies for industry productivity. For this purpose we develop a reciprocal dumping model of international trade with heterogeneous firms and endogenous R&D. Among the robust results that hold both in the short run when there is no entry, and in the long run under free entry are that trade liberalization increases aggregate R&D when trade costs are low and decreases R&D when trade costs are high. Expected industry productivity rises as trade costs fall.     

Trade, offshoring, and the invisible handshake

We study the effect of globalization on the volatility of wages and worker welfare in a model in which risk is allocated through long-run employment relationships (the ‘invisible handshake’). Globalization can take two forms: international integration of commodity markets (i.e., free trade) and international integration of factor markets (i.e., offshoring). In a two-country, two-good, two-factor model we show that free trade and offshoring have opposite effects on rich-country workers. Free trade hurts rich-country workers, while reducing the volatility of their wages; by contrast, offshoring benefits them, while raising the volatility of their wages. We thus formalize, but also sharply circumscribe, a common critique of globalization.     

Financial literacy and support for free trade in the UK

Recent events in Europe and the United States suggest that open economies are increasingly under stress as nationalist, protectionist and populist political entrepreneurs are gaining significant ground across the Western world. Many theories have been formulated as to which factors are more likely to explain such policy preferences. The hypothesis tested in this paper is that financial literacy affects economic policy preferences. I analyse data from the British Election Study and test my theory on support for free trade in the United Kingdom. Findings suggest that financial literacy does affect economic policy preferences. On average, financially literate individuals are more likely to think that free trade is good for the British economy. Furthermore, this is true regardless of economic self-interest, as both financially literate winners and losers from globalisation are more likely to support free trade than their illiterate counterparts.     

Trade and imperfect competition in general equilibrium

This paper employs a multi-industry general equilibrium model of oligopolistic competition, free market entry and trade in which capital is used to establish firms and labor is used for production. We show that both absolute and relative endowments matter for the pattern of trade. We demonstrate that market entry to each industry is either too excessive or too moderate while the effect on firm size is ambiguous. If countries are sufficiently symmetric, trade will increase the wage–rental ratio in both countries. Furthermore, trade will increase per-capita consumption in capital-intensive industries and reduce it in labor-intensive industries. Nevertheless, trade will be mutually welfare-improving under relatively mild conditions.     

The effects of loss aversion on trade policy: Theory and evidence

We study the implications of loss aversion for trade policy determination and show how it allows us to explain a number of important and puzzling features of trade policy. Some important questions concerning trade policy are why a disproportionate share of protection goes to declining industries and why trade policy has an anti-trade bias. We show that if individual preferences exhibit sufficient loss aversion, higher protection will be given to sectors in which profitability is declining. We also show that if the coefficient of loss aversion is large enough, there will be an anti-trade bias in trade policy. Using a nonlinear regression procedure, we find support for the model and the estimates of the loss aversion parameters are very close to those obtained by Kahneman and Tversky (Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1992. Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, 297-323.) with experimental data. Protection is found to be more responsive to losses than to gains, and the estimates of the coefficient of loss aversion are about 2. We also find evidence of loss aversion in lobby formation.     

Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries

We derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade integration that is consistent with a broad range of leading gravity models. This measure accounts for cross-industry heterogeneity by incorporating substitution elasticities estimated at the industry level. We then use it to provide a theory-based ranking of trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries. In addition, we explore the determinants of trade integration, finding that substantial Technical Barriers to Trade in certain industries as well as high transportation costs associated with heavy-weight goods are the most notable trade barriers.     

Unpacking sources of comparative advantage: A quantitative approach

This paper develops an approach for quantifying the importance of different sources of comparative advantage, by extending the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model to predict industry trade flows. In this framework, comparative advantage is determined by the interaction of country and industry characteristics, with countries specializing in industries whose production needs they can best meet with their factor endowments and institutional strengths. I estimate the model parameters using: (i) OLS; and (ii) a simulated method of moments procedure that accounts for the prevalence of zeros in the bilateral trade data. I apply the model to explore various quantitative questions, such as how much distance, Ricardian productivity, factor endowments, and institutions each matter for country welfare in the global trade equilibrium.     

Bilateralism, multilateralism, and the quest for global free trade

We develop an equilibrium theory of trade agreements in which both the degree and the nature (bilateral or multilateral) of trade liberalization are endogenously determined. To determine whether and how bilateralism matters, we also analyze a scenario where countries pursue trade liberalization on only a multilateral basis. We find that when countries have asymmetric endowments or when governments value producer interests more than tariff revenue and consumer surplus, there exist circumstances where global free trade is a stable equilibrium only if countries are free to pursue bilateral trade agreements. By contrast, under symmetry, both bilateralism and multilateralism yield global free trade.     

On the origins of comparative advantage

This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit. There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of each task, which creates gains from specialization, and uncertainty in the enforcement of each contract, which create transaction costs. The trade-off between these two forces pins down the size of productive teams across sectors in each country. Under free trade, the country where teams are larger specializes in the more complex goods. In our model, it is the country where the product of institutional quality and human per worker capital is larger. Hence, better institutions and more educated workers are complementary sources of comparative advantage in the more complex industries.     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America?

This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill‐endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.     

不完全竞争、贸易与资源配置扭曲

传统理论认为,随着全球化的深入,市场竞争加强,垄断程度会越来越低,因此当市场处于开放的状态下,贸易被认为能够帮助纠正垄断定价带来的资源配置扭曲。然而数据显示,行业间和地区间的成本加成异质性随着时间增长在不断扩大,贸易使垄断力量差异变大。由于行业进入壁垒不同,贸易对竞争程度不同的行业影响不同,进入壁垒低的行业由于更易于参与贸易,成本加成相比于进入壁垒高的行业进一步降低,这也预示着各行业间的成本加成差别将会变大,资源配置扭曲的程度加深。本文试图建立一个包含不完全竞争的一般均衡模型,说明开放部分行业的贸易政策会导致福利损失,而市场进入壁垒的消除能纠正不对称贸易自由化造成的资源配置扭曲。     

Trade, demand spillovers, and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective

In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by a global middle class and their impact on trade patterns and industrialization. We propose a multi-industry and two-country trade model featuring demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries. We show how the international extent of demand spillovers depends upon asymmetries in domestic income distribution, labor efficiency, and labor force size; that is, on the global distribution of real income.     

Unions, competition and international trade in general equilibrium

We develop a two-country, multi-sector model of oligopoly in which unionised and non-unionised sectors interact in general equilibrium. The model is used to study the impact of trade liberalisation, deunionisation and firm entry on wages in unionised and non-unionised sectors, and on welfare. We find that a shift from autarky to free trade increases non-union wages and welfare, whereas the effect on union wages is ambiguous. We also show that partial deunionisation leads to higher wages in both unionised and non-unionised sectors, but only increases welfare when the proportion of unionised sectors is sufficiently low. Finally, wages in non-unionised sectors necessarily increase with firm entry, while the response of union wages and welfare depends on the trade regime.     

Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin comparative advantage: Theory and evidence

This paper derives and estimates a unified and tractable model of comparative advantage due to differences in both factor abundance and relative productivity differences across industries. It derives conditions under which ignoring one force for comparative advantage biases empirical tests of the other. I emphasize two empirical results: First, factor abundance- and relative productivity-based models each possesses explanatory power when nesting the other as an alternate hypothesis. Second, productivity differences across industries do not bias tests of the HO model in my sample. However, I find weak and mixed evidence that Heckscher-Ohlin forces can potentially bias tests of the Ricardian model.     

Uganda's policy reforms,industry competitiveness and regional integration: a comparison with Kenya

The paper reviews, first, Uganda's economic policies affecting the industrial sector and analyses the international competitiveness of Uganda's manufacturing industries, using a sample of 21 firms in 12 industries. It computes indices of comparative advantage, export and domestic competitiveness and compares the Ugandan indicators with those of Kenyan firms. It also identifies the main sources and obstacles to competitiveness using a decomposition method, which breaks the unit cost indices down into their main components. The study is timely as Uganda is re-establishing a free trade zone with Kenya and Tanzania, and also faces liberalized trade with the rest of the world. The numerical results of the study suggest that Ugandan firms, although not generally cost-competitive with Kenyan and other international firms, due to the country's land-locked geography and its de-industrialization under the preceding political regimes, have benefited from a recently established business-friendly environment and are more competitive in several industries than is generally assumed. This means that they may not be able to export internationally, but they are likely to hold their ground against Kenyan imports under regional free trade.     

Market imperfections, wealth inequality, and the distribution of trade gains

Globalization increasingly involves less-developed countries (LDCs), i.e., economies which usually suffer from severe imperfections in their financial systems. Taking these imperfections seriously, we analyze how credit frictions affect the distributive impact of trade liberalizations. We find that free trade significantly widens income differences among firm owners in LDCs: While wealthy entrepreneurs are better off, relatively poor business people lose. Intuitively, with integrated markets, profit margins shrink — which makes access to credit particularly difficult for the least-affluent agents. Richer entrepreneurs, by contrast, win because they can take advantage of new export opportunities. Our findings resonate well with a number of empirical regularities, in particular with the observation that some liberalizing LDCs have observed a surge in top-income shares.