Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union

We consider the interaction between the monetary policy in a monetary union, and the separate fiscal policies of the member countries. We use a Barro–Gordon-type model extended to many countries and fiscal policies. Each country’s fiscal policies inflict externalities on other countries, and the common monetary policy has its time-consistency problem. But if the two types of policymakers agree about the ideal levels of output and inflation, then this ideal is attained despite disagreements about the weights of the objectives, despite ex post monetary accommodation to fiscal profligacy, without fiscal coordination, without monetary commitment, and for any order of moves.     

Implementing monetary base rules: The currency problem

Monetary policy rules which rely on the monetary base have been advocated by Meltzer and McCallum. Proponents claim that following monetary base rules would minimize fluctuations around the target growth rate for nominal GNP. Critics of such rules contend that currency has not been properly accounted for in their analysis. This paper examines McCallum's monetary base rule by explicitly taking the demand for currency into account. Assuming that currency is supplied elastically, our investigation quantifies changes in the composition of the monetary base under these rules and provides an estimate of how these compositional changes might affect the variability around the target nominal GNP growth rate.     

阿拉伯海湾国家经济一体化及面临的挑战

阿拉伯海湾地区丰富的石油资源和年进口达1000亿美元以上的市场令世界瞩目。海湾6国在20世纪80年代初建立地区经济组织——阿拉伯海湾国家合作委员会以来,为促进各国经济贸易共同发展做出了可喜成绩。进入21世纪,海湾六国又在经济一体化道路上迈出新的步伐,成为世人关注的焦点之一。     

关于财政货币政策调整的争论与分析

本文认为,在全球经济复苏特别是澳大利亚、挪威政府开启加息程序的背景下,考虑财政货币政策的调整问题是很有必要的.国内生产总值增长速度、居民消费价格指数同比增速、投资与进出口增速、国内政策之间的配合程度、国际之间政策的协调程度等可以作为对财政货币政策调整与退出作出判断的重要指标.文章提出,中国积极的财政政策应该在2011年下半年或2012年开始逐渐淡出直至退出,货币政策应该继续维持"适度宽松"的基调,真正向"适度宽松"回归,并注意把握好政策的重点、力度和节奏,从而更好地发挥货币政策支持经济增长、保持物价稳定的作用,同时还应密切关注美国货币政策的动向.     

石油行业税负政策的国际比较与借鉴

本文以石油行业财税政策的理论研究为基础,对国内外大型石油企业的税负进行对比。结果表明,我国石油企业税收负担相对繁重,如何改善国内税收状况已成为理论界与实务界共同关注的热点。在剖析我国石油财税政策存在的问题及原因的基础上,借鉴、参照以美国为代表的国际成熟石油税收体系,提出一些政策性建议,并探索我国石油财税政策的改革之路。     

一个解释中国通货膨胀的可行框架:1981—2006

经过修正的财政主导型制度和价格水平决定的财政理论可以分别对1981—1994年和1995—2006年两个时期的通货膨胀史进行解释,其中前者源于对既有经济学文献的综合分析,后者源于以事实为基础的逻辑推理和最新正式经验研究。一个重要的现实政策含义是,要实现价格稳定和可持续经济增长,中国务必要进行第二次制度变革,其方向是以积极型货币政策与被动型财政政策搭配为基础的货币主导型的李嘉图制度。     

国际货币体系新问题探析——兼论中国的应对之道

现行的国际货币体系主要还是布雷顿森林会议所遗留的产物,该体系是美国在战后所主导建立的,如今已不再适合目前的形势。虚拟经济的快速增长,新兴国家的实力不断增强,还有国际投机者的到处炒作,国际货币体系面临的这三个新问题使其缺陷越来越明显,而改革则是一个漫长又艰难的过程,本文在此基础上提出了中国的应对之道。     

NNS模型及其对宏观经济学的新发展

20世纪80年代以来,新兴新古典综合（NNS）模型被广泛运用于解释具有微观基础的宏观经济问题。本文考察NNS模型的总体研究工作,论证其对于当下宏观经济学的新发展及意义。NNS模型分析性地说明：价格稳定将继续作为好的货币政策的基础,保证货币政策达到家庭福利最大化;在实际操作中,通过锚定预期未来通货膨胀,利率政策通过促进价格稳定的可信性强化了杠杆作用,导致利率政策在最大程度上促进了当前的总需求;只要现金优先的解释暗示了如果价格下降,产出只能增加,那么可以发现,扩张型的财政政策必然会在货币外生的体制下产生通货紧缩的后果。NNS模型对于中国经验具有一定的解释力。     

影响我国内外部均衡的政策实施环境

当前 ,我国在运用财政政策和货币政策实现内外部均衡过程中 ,要受到体制环境、社会环境等各种因素的制约。由于人民币利率和人民币汇率的市场化程度都比较低 ,决定了我国内外部均衡的实现要依靠政府强有力的宏观调控政策 ,但政府采取的货币政策的实施效果又被当今社会诚信缺失所破坏。我国目前对境内机构经常项目外汇收入所实行的强制结汇政策也导致了外部失衡对内部均衡的冲击。城乡居民边际消费倾向的降低使财政政策的效果大打折扣。不过 ,由于我国进出口商品结构的变化 ,进出口商品的需求弹性系数在逐步提高 ,运用人民币汇率政策调节国际收支实现外部均衡的条件也在改善     

财政货币政策搭配理论综述

财政政策和货币政策是宏观调控的两大政策工具,二者的紧密搭配对于实现宏观经济政策目标具有重要意义。从理论上阐释财政政策和货币政策配合的必要性,财政政策与货币政策的一致性是二者协调配合的客观基础,两者的差异性是二者协调配合的现实必要性。封闭经济的IS-LM曲线、米德冲突、丁伯根法则以及蒙代尔有效市场细分等理论是财政货币政策搭配理论的基础。     

基于资产负债表的中国宏观政策选择研究

一国采取什么样的宏观政策和这个国家的资产负债表状况密切相关。2002至2011年中国国家资产负债表总体状况良好,政府的狭义负债率、广义负债率都低于国际警戒线。尽管中国广义负债率水平不断提高,但仍然不超过50％,这决定了未来中国宏观政策的选择是适度扩张的财政政策、中性的货币政策。其中,扩张性财政要从政府投资为主,转向以补贴和减税为主,并减持国有股份以充实社会保险基金;中性货币政策以加强对银行监管和控制风险为主,同时加快人民币国际化、扩大对外投资,控制扩张财政带来的通货膨胀。     

Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union

We lay out a tractable model for the analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union. The monetary authority sets a common interest rate for the union, whereas fiscal policy is implemented at the country level, through the choice of government spending. In the presence of country-specific shocks and nominal rigidities, the policy mix that is optimal from the viewpoint of the union as a whole requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank, whereas fiscal policy has a country-specific stabilization role, one beyond the efficient provision of public goods.     

中国经济增长中货币政策与财政政策有效性的比较检验

本文通过一个广义货币供应量、财政支出和国内生产总值三变量向量误差修正模型(VECM)考察中国1978—2005年间货币政策和财政政策对经济增长影响的差异性特征。在应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:积极货币政策的经济增长效果无论在短期还是长期内均要强于财政政策,长期内,积极货币政策对经济增长一直有递减的正效应,但是积极财政政策由于挤出效应的影响,长期内对经济增长呈负效应。     

我国货币政策与宏观审慎监管的协调效应研究

信贷市场摩擦与BaselⅡ的银行资本监管会加剧金融体系和实体经济的波动性,这促进了"宏观审慎监管"理念的引入。本文运用一个带有抵押品约束的DSGE模型分析货币政策与宏观审慎监管对经济周期、福利改善和金融稳定的影响,基于中国经济的模拟检验得到如下结论:(1)宏观审慎监管中的LTV规则可以降低福利损失,此工具在维持金融稳定方面是有效的;(2)两种政策如何协调应根据具体经济情况而定,研究表明,经济体在面临需求冲击时两种政策可以相互促进,而面临供给冲击时可能会产生冲突;(3)最优政策组合的福利分析表明,LTV规则对房价应做出更强的反应,而修正泰勒模型中加入宏观审慎监管后的政策效率比标准泰勒模型更好,说明两种政策的互动能显著地增强经济体系的稳定性。鉴于此,我国政策当局在宏观经济调控中应当有效发挥货币政策与宏观审慎监管的协调效应,共同实现经济与金融稳定。     

海湾六国经货联盟经济周期同步性分析

海湾六国计划在2010年建立单一货币联盟,而经济周期同步性是货币联盟稳定性的重要基础条件。本文从经济周期同步性角度考察海湾六国是否具备货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型(VECM),并依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对海湾六国的经济周期同步性进行了经验分析。分析结果表明:海湾六国不仅在长期内经济周期有共同的随机发展趋势;而且在短期内,经济周期是完全同步的。因此,海湾六国基本上满足货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。     

中外应对全球金融危机的政策比较

全球金融危机对世界各国经济造成了严重的负面影响,主要国家纷纷出台针对性的政策措施以应对。文章对比分析了美、日、英等发达国家和中国的政策措施,归纳出中国政策措施的特点,并提出了中国进一步应对全球金融危机的政策建议。     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations

The classic Sargent–Wallace–Lucas (SWL) rational expectations-flexible price model is usually interpreted as implying “policy ineffectiveness”: systematic monetary rules cannot affect the distribution of real output. A contrary but not widely-appreciated result of Dotsey and King suggests that there exist “prospective feedback” rules (future money depending systematically on current but as yet unobserved information) which improve output distribution by means of improving agents’ ability to perceive relative prices.We show the Dotsey–King proposition in fact to be a colossal understatement: prospective feedback rules applied vigorously enough (and even “contemporaneous feedback” rules based on current interest rates, provided at least one prospective feedback is active) can in the limit drive price-perception errors to zero. This is not to say such a policy would be desirable. Feedback parameter combinations that reduce current price level misperception tend to produce high forecast error variances with respect to future prices, with attendant loss in capital market efficiency. Whatever the desirable frontier among these different social cost-producing variables, feedback parameters will in general be needed in order to get on the frontier as well as to move along it. Monetary policy clearly produces social gain even in a version of this model which contains no elements of price “friction,” inefficient use of available information, or asymmetry in information as between the government and the public.