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《Latin American Business Review》2013,14(1):75-90
Abstract The reintroduction of Mexican peso futures contracts in April 1995 resulted from a refocus of governmental policy to the use of market-based mechanisms to stabilize the exchange rate. Interest in the Mexican peso future contracts has been high as investors look to manage their exposure from transactions and investments denominated in pesos. This study utilizes a VAR framework to analyze the relationship between the volatility in the Mexican peso spot market and futures contracts trading activity. Shocks to the exchange rate volatility lead to increased hedg-ing-type activity. Furthermore, an increase in futures contracts trading activity (reflecting additional speculation-type activity) results in a short-run increase in volatility. A Granger Causality test also indicates a statistically significant link between spot price volatility and futures trading activity in the Mexican peso exchange market. RESUMEN La reintroducción de los contratos futuros del peso mexicano en abril de 1995, resultó del nuevo enfoque de la política gubernamental de usar los mecanismos de mercado para estabilizar la tasa cambiaria. Ha habido mucho interés en los contratos futuros del peso mexicano, ya que los inversores buscan administrar su exposición a las transacciones e inversiones denominadas en pesos. Este estudio utiliza el marco del VAR para analizar la relación existente entre la volatilidad del peso mexicano en el mercado spot y la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros. Los choques sufridos por la volatilidad de la tasa cambiaria resultan en un aumento de las actividades del tipo hedging. Además, un aumento en la actividad de negociación de los contratos futuros (que refleja otras actividades de naturaleza especulativa) provoca, a corto plazo, un aumento en la volatilidad. Una prueba Granger Causality también indica un vínculo estadísticamente significativo entre la volatilidad del precio spot y la actividad de negociación del mercado futuro en el mercado cambiario del peso mexicano. RESUMO A reintrodução dos contratos futuros em peso mexicano, em abril de 1995, foi o resultado de uma revisão da política governamental, em relação ao uso dos mecanismos baseados no mercado para estabilizar a taxa de câmbio. Os juros dos contratos futuros, em peso mexicano, foram altos, devido ao cuidado dos investidores em administrar o risco das transaç[otilde]es e dos investimentos efetuados em pesos. Este estudo utiliza a estrutura VAR, para analisar o relacionamento entre a volatilidade do mercado local, em peso mexicano, e a atividade comercial de contratos futuros. Choques aplicados à volatilidade da taxa de câmbio contribuíram para o aumento das atividades típicas de hedging. Além disso, um crescimento da atividade comercial de contratos futuros (refletindo uma atividade basicamente especulativa) ocasiona um rápido aumento na volatilidade. O teste Granger Causality indica, também, um vínculo estatístico significativo entre a volatilidade do preço local e a atividade comercial de futuros no mercado cambial do peso mexicano. 相似文献
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We use the Markov-switching model based on Hamilton (1990) among others. The non-explicit intervention of the Central Reserve Bank changes the expectations of economic agents. This change in expectations clearly shows that the public is aware of non-explicit interventions in a dollarized economy and said interventions have been altering the expectations of economic agents in terms of the foreign exchange market. We conclude that market participants assume that the Central Reserve Bank is more efficient in reducing volatility in periods in which the domestic currency appreciates rather than depreciates. The results show that the Markov-switching model behaves more than satisfactorily in the sample period but less so in periods of extreme volatility such as the recent sub-prime crisis. Central Bank's forex interventions are policy instruments that can be followed and interpreted by the public. 相似文献
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Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime‐switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in regime‐switching models. In this article, we reduce an optimal stopping problem with an arbitrary value function in a two‐regime environment to a pair of optimal stopping problems without regime switching. We then propose a method for finding optimal stopping rules using the techniques available for nonswitching problems. In contrast to other methods, our systematic solution procedure is more direct as we first obtain the explicit form of the value functions. In the end, we discuss an option pricing problem, which may not be dealt with by the conventional methods, demonstrating the simplicity of our approach. 相似文献
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Emerging markets' financial institutions often face a mismatch in the currency denominations of their liabilities (foreign currency-denominated debt raised from foreign lenders) and their assets (domestic currency loans to domestic borrowers). We study the effect of this mismatch on monetary policy in a sticky-price, dynamic general-equilibrium small open economy model in which the country default-risk premium depends on domestic banks' balance sheets due to asymmetric information. A fixed exchange rate rule that stabilizes bank balance sheets offers greater stability than does an interest rate rule that targets inflation to offset the real effects of sticky-prices. 相似文献
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国际贸易计价货币的选择——兼论人民币国际化 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
曹勇 《国际商务-(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2007,(6)
本文以出口商预期利润最大化为视角,介绍和归纳了出口商计价货币选择的有关模型。得出结论:一国货币作为国际贸易发票货币取决于货币汇率的波动性;该国占据的出口市场份额以及该国出口产品的差异性程度,并利用经验数据检验了以上结论,展望了人民币国际化的前景。 相似文献
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Explaining the exchange rate pass-through in different prices 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper examines the performance of a variety of new open economy macroeconomic models in explaining the exchange rate pass-through in a wide range of prices. Quantitative versions of different models are used to derive the dynamic response of various prices to an exchange rate shock. Predicted responses are compared with the evidence based on VAR models to examine how well different models fit the data. The results show that the best-fitting model incorporates a number of features highlighted by different strands of the literature: sticky prices, sticky wages, distribution costs and a combination of local (LCP) and producer currency pricing (PCP). 相似文献
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This paper argues that, first, despite some similarities, financial crises in the 1990s have featured substantial differences between them: the ERM crisis of 1992–1993 was mainly due to stringent monetary policies; the Mexican crisis of 1994–1995 was associated to private overconsumption; and the East Asian crisis of 1997–1999 were basically the result of private overinvestment. Therefore, as crises do not seem to present strong regularities over time, the task of trying to predict them on the basis of past developments is surely doomed to fail. As crises might be simply unpredictable, specialists should refrain from creating and developing predictors and focus instead on simpler early-warning indicators. Second, the paper reviews the main body of literature on leading indicators of crises and it suggests that the bulk of these conventional indicators do not seem to be appropriate to the East Asian episodes. In order to create a new set of early-warning indicators, economists should focus on non-conventional deficiencies, such as those related to financial fragility associated with financial deregulation and with capital inflows, to a declining efficiency of investment, and to a high short-term external debt (especially as a proportion of foreign exchange reserves). 相似文献
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本文在前人研究成果的基础上,利用1992年至2007年的数据对货币需求进行实证分析,结果表明,收入变量对货币需求有正的影响,且影响较为明显,而利率与货币需求的相关性很小,说明我国利率变量对货币需求的影响较小;消费价格指数与货币需求量负相关,股票市值及货币化程度与货币需求都是正相关关系。 相似文献
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Minsoo Lee Moonjoong Tcha 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2013,22(2):209-228
This paper empirically examines the exchange rate pass-through elasticity, using sheep meat exports from the two major exporters, Australia and New Zealand. The results show the coexistence of incomplete and complete pass-through in the international sheep meat industry. The Australian sheep meat exporters have a relatively smaller market share than New Zealand and are not able to exercise monopoly power. New Zealand producers, on the other hand, can increase their mark-ups in those destination countries where they have a large market share. 相似文献