Product quality,firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization

This paper develops a framework for studying the general equilibrium effects of endogenous quality upgrading, a new margin of trade, on the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The theoretical model introduces product quality differentiation amongst heterogeneous firms and focuses on supply-side determinants of international trade. Among other results, in general equilibrium, trade liberalization decreases the share of high-quality varieties in exports and the average productivity of exporters. These changes affect average export price in opposite ways. Nevertheless, trade liberalization in the quality-extended model increases consumers’ welfare by more than in the benchmark model.     

Firm heterogeneity and international trade in services

This study, using panel data on Japanese firms, analyses the relationship between services trade and firm heterogeneity. It finds that the number of firms engaged in services trade is far less than that engaged in goods trade. Further, the productivity of services traders is higher than that of domestic firms and goods trading firms, whereas the productivity of firms that export services beyond the boundary of their firm groups is higher than that of those that export services only to their affiliate firms. These results suggest that only productive firms can engage in services trade by incurring the relatively large fixed costs.     

Good jobs, bad jobs, and trade liberalization

How do labor markets adjust to trade liberalization? Leading models of intraindustry trade (Krugman (1981), Melitz (2003)) assume homogeneous workers and full employment, and thus predict that all workers win from trade liberalization, a conclusion at odds with the public debate. Our paper develops a new model that merges Melitz (2003) with Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), so also links product market churning to labor market churning. Workers care about their jobs because the model features aggregate unemployment and jobs that pay different wages to identical workers. Simulations show that, for reasonable parameter values, as many as one-fourth of existing “good jobs” (those with above average wage) may be destroyed in a liberalization. This is true even as the model shows minimal impact on aggregate unemployment and quite substantial aggregate gains from trade.     

Efficiency wages,unemployment and international factor movements

This paper examines the implications of unemployment resulting from efficiency wages for international factor movements in a standard Heckscher-Ohlin model where the relative size of the endowments of skilled and unskilled workers and the efficiency wage induced unemployment level in the unskilled labour market are simultaneously determined given the population, supply of capital and its distribution in the economy. Capital in the economy is used only to train individuals for the skilled labour market, where workers are fully employed. It is shown that the optimum labour inflow in the market with domestic distortion and the optimum capital inflow are always positive because they reduce the severity of distortion by raising employment and income for the residents. The income and employment of foreigners also increase. Under this situation the optimum labour or capital outflow on the other hand is always zero. These conclusions directly contradict the result obtained for international factor movements in the presence of exogenously determined unemployment.     

The declining costs of international trade and unemployment

A two-country, two-sector new geography model where workers are imperfectly monitored is used to examine the relationship between falling trade costs and unemployment. It is shown that as trade costs fall over time the world naturally falls into an industrialized core and an agricultural periphery. Globalization has a positive effect on employment in the core in both the short and long term. The periphery suffers employment losses in the short term but can gain in the long term.     

On the conservation of distance in international trade

Using disaggregated bilateral trade data, we find that the elasticity of trade to distance increased (in absolute value) by about 10% since 1985. To explore the reasons for this shift, we decompose the change in the distance elasticity of trade into the part due to a shift in the composition of trade among industries and the part due to a change in the distance sensitivity within industries. We find that adjustment in the composition of trade had little effect, but for 40% of industries distance became more important, with nearly all of the remaining industries showing no significant change. We explore alternative hypotheses as to why the elasticity of trade to distance increased in some industries. We find that homogeneous goods, bulky goods, and high tariff goods became significantly more distance sensitive. In contrast, the evidence implies that changes in tariffs and freight costs have reduced the importance of distance on trade. We conclude that the increase in the importance of distance over time is related to the substitutability of goods and the level of trade costs, but not to changes in tariffs or freight costs.     

Impact of international trade on unemployment under oligopoly

By studying a two-sector general equilibrium model in which firms engage in oligopolistic competition and unemployment is a result of the existence of efficiency wages, we derive the following results analytically. A country's comparative advantage in producing manufactured goods increases with the level of efficiencies in the labor market. The opening of international trade leads to the equalization of wage rates even though countries differ in their factor endowments and labor market efficiencies. If countries have the same level of labor market efficiencies but differ in their endowments of labor and land, the opening to international trade leads to an increase in the wage rate in both countries.     

The effect of the Internet on international trade

We find that the Internet stimulates trade. Evidence from time-series and cross-section regressions shows a significant effect of the Internet on trade in recent years. Our results suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in the growth of web hosts in a country leads to about a 0.2 percentage point increase in export growth. For the average country in our sample, the Internet contributed to about a 1 percentage point increase in annual export growth from 1997 to 1999. We also find evidence of proximity-biased trade growth, i.e. that trade growth is lower for more distant countries, but we do not find evidence that the Internet has directly affected this bias. The evidence is consistent with a model in which the Internet reduces market-specific fixed costs of trade. In particular, we show that an Internet-related reduction in fixed costs is likely to enhance export growth. The model also shows that the Internet does not directly affect the relationship between distance and trade; however, to the extent that competition is enhanced as a result of its development, the Internet will increase the overall effect of distance on trade.     

Assessing the impact of communication costs on international trade

Communication costs are frequently cited as an important determinant of trade costs. We test this relationship by incorporating alternative measures of communication costs in a model of bilateral trade. We find that international variations in communication costs indeed have a significant influence on trade patterns. Furthermore, estimates using disaggregated data reveal that communication costs are more important for trade in differentiated products than for trade in homogenous products.     

The export technology content, learning by doing and specialization in foreign trade

We examine empirically whether countries with relatively little production and export experience specialize in the production and export of more standardized and lower-technology products, and those with more production experience produce and export more recently developed and higher-technology products. Using panel data covering 127 countries and the period between 1970 and 1997, we find that export experience does help to account for the variation in export content. Exporting experience influences a country's export mix more than its production experience, suggesting that there may be a trade-induced component of learning by doing in foreign trade specialization.     

Induced clean technology adoption and international trade with heterogeneous firms

This paper introduces an environmental externality and factor-biased technology adoption into a trade model with heterogeneous firms. This study explores how firms’ decisions of technology adoption and of exports are affected by openness to trade and the stringency of environmental regulations. It shows that: (1) these decisions induced by tightened environmental policies depend upon whether the upgraded technology is labor-biased or emission-biased; (2) the environmental impact of trade cost reductions on the aggregate emissions and price of emissions permits varies with the factor-biased feature; and (3) regardless of the factor-biased feature, the trade cost reduction induces firms to export and to upgrade the factor-biased technology, while it forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Moreover, the model is further calibrated to simulate policy scenarios of bilateral and unilateral variations in trade variable costs and environmental policies. The bilateral reduction of emissions cap may contribute to welfare gains in both home and foreign countries. The unilateral action of tightening environmental policy in the home country may hurt the home country, but makes the foreign country better off.     

入世后中日制成品贸易发展的实证分析

中国"入世"后,中日贸易的发展与中国其他主要贸易伙伴相比有一定的差距,其占中国对外贸易总额的比重不断下降。为了深入了解中日贸易的发展变化,本文以制成品为研究对象,在国际贸易标准分类的基础上,借助贸易强度指数、互补性指数、产业内贸易指数等进行了定量分析。结果表明,双方紧密的贸易联系和较强的互补性并没有发生改变。只要能妥善处理诸多政治分歧,双方贸易增长还将有很大的潜力。     

Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory

We provide a synthetic analysis of the different ways in which countries participate in the world economy. Classic trade questions are reconsidered by generalizing a factor-proportions model to multiple countries, multiple goods or multi-stage production, and country-specific trade costs. Each country's production specialization, trade and welfare is determined by the interaction between its relative endowment and its trade costs. We consider the effects of allowing one good to ‘fragment’ into component and assembly production. The volume of trade and welfare levels are higher with fragmentation for most countries, although for many countries these variables fall with fragmentation.     

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions vs. greenfield foreign direct investment: The role of firm heterogeneity

We develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to address two sets of questions: (1) what are the characteristics of firms that choose the various modes of foreign market access (exporting, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A), and (2) how does the international organization of production vary across industries and country-pairs? We show that the answers to these questions depend on the nature of firm heterogeneity. Depending on whether firms differ in their mobile or immobile capabilities, cross-border mergers involve the most or the least efficient active firms. The comparative statics on industry and country characteristics display a similar dichotomy.     

Skill bias, trade, and wage dispersion

Wage ratios between different percentiles of the wage distribution have moved in parallel and then diverged in the U.S. in the last 50 years. In this paper, I study the theoretical response of wage ratios to skill-biased technical change and trade integration. I build a simple model of heterogeneous technology and heterogeneous workers that features complementarities between the quality of ideas and abilities. I show that changes to the skill bias of technology and to trade costs can both reproduce the observed pattern since (i) they have similar asymmetric effects on productive vs. unproductive firms, and (ii) positive assortative matching in the labor market transmits this asymmetry across high and low skill workers. Focusing on the different channels through which skill-biased technical change and trade integration operate suggests ways to disentangle the magnitude of each.     

A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises

This paper addresses two important issues at the nexus of the literatures on international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign affiliate sales (FAS), and multinational enterprises (MNEs). First, the introduction of a third internationally-mobile factor (physical capital) to the standard 2 × 2 × 2 “knowledge-capital” model of MNEs with skilled and unskilled labor allows us to resolve fairly readily the puzzle in the modern MNE literature that foreign affiliate sales among two identical economies completely displace their international trade. Intra-industry trade and intra-industry FDI (and FAS) can coexist for national and multinational firms (with identical productivities) in identical countries. Second, the introduction also of a third country to the model suggests a formal N-country theoretical rationale for estimating gravity equations of bilateral FDI flows and FAS, in a manner consistent with estimating gravity equations for bilateral trade flows.     

A Ricardian model of international trade with oligopolistic competition

This paper studies a Ricardian model of international trade with a continuum of products in a general equilibrium model in which firms engage in oligopolistic competition. It provides a bridge between trade models based on perfect competition and models based on imperfect competition. Compared with a model based on perfect competition, the incorporation of fixed cost leads to the result that an increase of domestic labor may increase the relative wage of the domestic country.     

Preference heterogeneity, wage inequality, and trade

We consider individuals who value product variety, and who can be skilled or unskilled as workers. Skilled people prefer to consume skill-intensive goods. We show that under plausible conditions an increase in the relative size of the skilled population increases the relative wage of skilled workers, thereby increasing wage inequality. In our two-country model of trade, an increase in the relative supply of skilled labor in either country increases the relative wage of skilled workers, and hence increases inequality in both countries.     

Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Taiwanese multinationals

This paper examines the extent to which production location decisions of Taiwanese multinationals reflect underlying patterns of firm productivity. In our theoretical model, heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal production locations for serving three geographically separate markets: domestic, foreign high-income and foreign low-income. The model shows that the equilibrium decision of a firm depends on the fixed investment costs of establishing foreign subsidiaries, production costs, transportation costs, market size and its own productivity level.

Using firm-level data in 2000, Taiwanese electronics firms are divided into four different categories: non-FDI, investors in China only, investors in the U.S. only, investors in both China and the U.S. We use a multinomial logit model to link firms' location choices with their productivity, controlling for country, industry and other firm characteristics. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. We show that more productive firms engage in outward FDI, with the most productive ones investing in both China and the U.S. We also provide evidence indicating that Taiwanese multinationals investing only in the U.S. are more productive than those investing exclusively in China due to smaller fixed investment costs in China relative to the U.S.     

Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Taiwanese multinationals

This paper examines the extent to which production location decisions of Taiwanese multinationals reflect underlying patterns of firm productivity. In our theoretical model, heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal production locations for serving three geographically separate markets: domestic, foreign high-income and foreign low-income. The model shows that the equilibrium decision of a firm depends on the fixed investment costs of establishing foreign subsidiaries, production costs, transportation costs, market size and its own productivity level.Using firm-level data in 2000, Taiwanese electronics firms are divided into four different categories: non-FDI, investors in China only, investors in the U.S. only, investors in both China and the U.S. We use a multinomial logit model to link firms' location choices with their productivity, controlling for country, industry and other firm characteristics. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. We show that more productive firms engage in outward FDI, with the most productive ones investing in both China and the U.S. We also provide evidence indicating that Taiwanese multinationals investing only in the U.S. are more productive than those investing exclusively in China due to smaller fixed investment costs in China relative to the U.S.