EXPLAINING DIFFERENCES IN EFFICIENCY: A META‐STUDY ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT LITERATURE

This paper reviews the literature on local government efficiency by meta‐reviewing 360 observations retrieved from 54 papers published from 1993 to 2016. The meta‐regression is based on a random‐effects model estimated with the two‐step random‐effects maximum likelihood (REML) technique proposed by Gallet and Doucouliagos. Results indicate that the study design matters when estimating a frontier in local government. We find that studies focusing on technical efficiency provide higher efficiency scores than works evaluating cost efficiency. The same applies when using panel data instead of cross‐section data. Interestingly, studies that use the Free Disposal Hull (FDH) approach yield, on average, higher efficiency scores than papers employing the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, thereby suggesting that in this literature the convexity hypothesis of the production set is a matter. Finally, the efficiency of local government increases with the level of development of the analysed countries and is positively related to the national integrity of the legal system. The opposite holds when considering the corruption.     

Evaluating employee integrity: Moral and methodological problems

This paper reviews the research on proprietary paper and pencial tests of integrity or honesty, which have effectively supplanted polygraph examinations in evaluating the moral attributes of employees and applicants. Moral integrity is a complex issue that encompasses more than conventional notions of honesty and is difficult to operationalize as a psychological trait or construct. Integrity test questions are largely derived from polygraph interrogations and the tests validated through polygraph results. The field studies reviewed and an exploratory test cast doubt on the ability of these paper and pencil instruments to meet standards of construct validity. Other studies show promise of predictive validity in some situations. Unfortunately, the research designs used to substantiate the predictive powers of integrity tests failed to hold other workplace influences constant. In light of these findings, employers are urged to exercise caution in the use of these tests until further independent research is reported because of potential infringements on privacy and equal opportunity.     

Capital Markets

The efficiency of security market is necessary for the harmonious growth of capital market, and more particularly in an emerging economy. This paper looks at the case of the Thai stock market, and uses statistical tests based on stratified samples of stocks on weekly data over a four year period. The tests check the normality of the price lag and the correlations over a 6 period lag. As a conclusion, the tests indicate* that only few stocks conform to the weakform efficiency market hypothesis. The authors make specific recommendations to improve the efficiency of the market as a whole.     

基于C#的Excel数据批量导入SqlServer的方法研究与实现

批量数据导入在实际工作中提高了数据处理的效率,保证了数据的完整性。本文以某地育龄妇女基本信息为例,详细介绍了Excel数据批量导入SqlServer的设计思路与实现方法。     

浅谈国有煤矿廉政稳定与安全生产的关系

谈到国有煤矿廉政、稳定与安全生产的关系,归根结底是相辅相成,互为条件,具有一定的因果关系的。它们三者都有一个共同点:从源头抓起,把一切问题或隐患消除在萌芽状态,确保矿区的长治久安。一个企业,如果廉政与稳定工作搞不好,安全生产就无从谈起,同样,安全生产搞不好,其内部也有必然的廉政问题存在,同时矿区的稳定也就成了一句空话。     

Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks

As the internet’s footprint continues to expand, cybersecurity is becoming a major concern for both governments and the private sector. One such cybersecurity issue relates to data integrity attacks. This paper focuses on the power industry, where the forecasting processes rely heavily on the quality of the data. Data integrity attacks are expected to harm the performances of forecasting systems, which will have a major impact on both the financial bottom line of power companies and the resilience of power grids. This paper reveals the effect of data integrity attacks on the accuracy of four representative load forecasting models (multiple linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy interaction regression). We begin by simulating some data integrity attacks through the random injection of some multipliers that follow a normal or uniform distribution into the load series. Then, the four aforementioned load forecasting models are used to generate one-year-ahead ex post point forecasts in order to provide a comparison of their forecast errors. The results show that the support vector regression model is most robust, followed closely by the multiple linear regression model, while the fuzzy interaction regression model is the least robust of the four. Nevertheless, all four models fail to provide satisfying forecasts when the scale of the data integrity attacks becomes large. This presents a serious challenge to both load forecasters and the broader forecasting community: the generation of accurate forecasts under data integrity attacks. We construct our case study using the publicly-available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. At the end, we also offer an overview of potential research topics for future studies.     

Generalized M-fluctuation tests for parameter instability

A general class of fluctuation tests for parameter instability in an M-estimation framework is suggested. Tests from this framework can be constructed by first choosing an appropriate estimation technique, deriving a partial sum process of the estimation scores that captures instabilities over time, and aggregating this process to a test statistic by using a suitable scalar functional. Inference for these tests is based on functional central limit theorems, which are derived under the null hypothesis of parameter stability and local alternatives. For (generalized) linear regression models, concrete tests are derived, which cover several known tests for (approximately) normal data but also allow for testing for parameter instability in regressions with binary or count data. The usefulness of the test procedures—complemented by powerful visualizations derived from these—is illustrated using Dow Jones industrial average stock returns, youth homicides in Boston, USA, and illegitimate births in Grossarl, Austria.     

社会资本、政府干预与区域资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据

选取2000—2012年中国大陆30个省份35个工业行业的数据为研究样本,分析社会资本和政府干预影响区域间资本配置效率的作用机制并进行实证检验后发现：较高的社会资本水平和较低的政府干预程度,有助于提高资本配置效率;社会资本与政府干预在影响资本配置效率方面存在替代关系,在政府干预比较严重的地区,社会资本对资本配置效率的影响更加显著。     

Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies*

This paper contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks by proposing a test for parameter stability in vector autoregressive (VAR) models at a particular frequency ω, where ω ∈ [0, π]. When a dynamic model is affected by a structural break, the new tests allow for detecting which frequencies of the data are responsible for parameter instability. If the model is locally stable at the frequencies of interest, the whole sample size can then be exploited despite the presence of a break. The methodology is applied to analyse the productivity slowdown in the US, and the outcome is that local stability concerns only the higher frequencies of data on consumption, investment and output.     

The effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on Chinese macroeconomic volatilities

This paper builds an open-economy DSGE model to study the effects of financial openness and financial efficiency on the macroeconomic volatilities and estimate the model with the Bayesian method and Chinese quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2017Q4. We further test the validity of model predictions with panel analyses of Chinese provincial data from 1987 to 2016 and various robustness tests. The results show that: first, further financial openness will lead to an increase in output volatility but U-shaped changes in consumption and investment volatilities. Second, financial efficiency improvement helps to reduce the macroeconomic volatilities but has a diminishing marginal benefit. Third, our estimates of China's degree of financial openness and financial efficiency are both at the medium level close to the thresholds. It implies that further financial openness will dramatically increase the macroeconomic volatilities but whether financial efficiency improvement can mitigate instability is uncertain.     

Frequency Domain Tests for Residual Serial Correlation in Cointegration Regressions

This paper introduces tests for residual serial correlation in cointegrating regressions. The tests are devised in the frequency domain by using the spectral measure estimates. The asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived and test consistency is established. The asymptotic distributions are obtained by using the assumptions and methods that are different from those used in Grenander and Rosenblatt (1957) and Durlauf (1991). Small-scale simulation results are reported to illustrate the finite sample performance of the tests under various distributional assumptions on the data generating process. The distributions considered are normal and t-distributions. The tests are shown to have stable size at sample sizes as large as 50 or 100. Additionally, it is shown that the tests are reasonably powerful against the ARMA residuals. An empirical application of the tests to investigate the ‘weak-form’ efficiency in the foreign exchange market is also reported.     

数字经济对全要素生产率的影响研究——来自国家级大数据综合试验区的证据

基于国家级大数据综合试验区的准自然实验，运用2014—2019年280个地级市的面板数据，采用多期双重差分法实证检验数字经济对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明：数字经济显著提升了全要素生产率，这一结论在经过多种稳健性检验后仍然成立；中介效应检验表明，数字经济通过提高资源配置效率和促进技术创新来提升全要素生产率；异质性分析表明，数字经济对低资源禀赋城市、低数字经济发展水平城市以及智慧城市的全要素生产率具有促进作用，抑制高资源禀赋、高数字经济城市的全要素生产率，而对非智慧城市的作用则不明显。因此，应基于大数据综合试验区深度挖掘数字经济的直接作用与间接作用，同时采取差异化发展战略，培育壮大全要素生产率增长新动能。     

Estimation in the generalized Poisson model via robust testing

An estimation method is presented which compromises robust efficiency with computational feasibility in the case of the generalized Poisson model. The formal setup is built on flexible nonparametric extensions of the underlying model. The estimation efficiency is expressed via minimax properties of tests resulting from expansions of estimators. The nonparametric neighborhoods related to the proposed score function are exemplified and a real data case is analysed. The resulting method balances several qualitative features of statistical inference: strong differentiability (asymptotic derivations are more accurate), efficiency and natural model extension (quality of formal basic assumptions).     

贝叶斯推断与资产组合有效性检验

本文认为,资产组合P的均值-方差有效性能够通过有效性指标ρ的后验分布获得。根据贝叶斯法则,我们选取上证综合指数为样本获得了ρ的后验分布。研究结论表明,如果资产组合集中包含有无风险资产,当先验信仰以标准无信息先验(标准扩散先验)的形式出现时,上证综合指数缺乏有效性,表明资产组合集中加入无风险资产将降低资产组合的均值-方差有效性,这与理论推导结果是一致的。     

计算机与多台单片机的串行通信方案实现

为了提高靶场测试系统的运行效率,提出了一种计算机与多台单片机通过串行口进行数据传输的方法。引入RS485总线,使用一台计算机通过不同的地址命令控制分布在不同位置的测试系统中的单片机,令单片机将采集到的数据发送给计算机,形成分布式测试系统。本文研究的多机串行通信方案具有一定的先进性,其性能经过试验现场验证工作稳定、可靠。     

Déjà lu: On the limits of data reuse across multiple publications

Scholars in our field, Operations and Supply Chain Management (OSCM), are under high pressure to show research productivity. At most schools, this productivity is measured by the number of journal articles published. One possible response to such pressure is to improve research efficiency: publishing more journal articles from each data collection effort. In other words, using one dataset for multiple publications. As long as each publication makes a sufficient contribution, and authors ensure transparency in methods and consistency across publications, generating more than one publication from one data collection effort is possible. The aim of this Notes and Debates article, however, is to draw attention to inappropriate reuse of empirical data in OSCM research, to explain its implications and to suggest ways in which to promote research quality and integrity. Based on two cases of extensive data reuse in OSCM, eighteen problematic practices associated with the reuse of data across multiple journal articles are identified. Recommendations on this issue of data reuse are provided for authors, reviewers, editors and readers.     

我国保险业市场结构、效率与绩效

对我国保险业财险市场和寿险市场2007--2011年市场结构、绩效和经营效率之间的关系进行分析,并对市场结构与经营绩效关系的五种假说进行验证,结果显示：我国无论是财险市场还是寿险市场均不符合结构一行为一绩效假说（SCP）和相对市场力量假说（RMP）,也不符合效率结构假说（ES）,我国保险市场在一定程度上符合平静生活假说（QL）。     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

Money donations,volunteering and organizational efficiency

The purpose of this article is to explain the cross-sectional variation in money donations to charities at the organizational level. Using a unique data base which includes volunteer labor data, this article tests the hypotheses that money donations are positively related to volunteering and the technical efficiency of the firm. Technical efficiency is measured by a number of non-parametric indices. The empirical results indicateinter alia that the more technically efficient the charity, the more money donations it is able to raise. Moreoer, at least for one model, money donations and volunteering are found to be complementary at the organizational level. In addition, the results in this article are not consistent with the well-known hypothesis that government financing crowds out private donations.     

中国地方城市环境治理财政支出效率评估研究

持续的环境污染制约着城市未来的持续健康发展.城市环境的公共品特征需要地方财政的大量环境治理资金投入,因此提高环境治理的财政支出效率是解决目前财政投入资金不足的一个重要途径.本文对我国地方城市环境治理财政支出效率进行了评估,并实证检验了影响财政支出效率的环境变量,在此基础上提出进一步提高环境治理财政支出效率的政策建议.