Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility

In this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four Latin American and two Asian countries, and we compare their characteristics. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.     

Stock market liberalization and operating performance at the firm level

I use firm-specific measures of openness to foreign investors to study the impact of stock market liberalization on firm-level operating performance. In a sample of over 1,100 firms from 28 countries, firms with stocks that are open to foreign investors experience higher growth, greater investment, greater profitability, greater efficiency, and lower leverage. Strategies to address potential endogeneity suggest that the observed relation reflects, at least in part, a causal effect of openness on operating performance.     

Stock market liberalization and return volatility: Evidence from the emerging market of Sri Lanka

This study examines the impact of liberalization of the Sri Lankan stock market on return volatility. We specify GARCH and TGARCH models of volatility, and estimate them using 16 years of weekly returns for the period from 1985 to 2000. The results show that liberalization of the market to foreign investors significantly increased the return volatility in the Colombo Stock Exchange. Both conditional and unconditional volatility measures are the highest in the liberalization period. Negative return shocks lead to lower volatility suggesting that there is no leverage effect, and this appears to reflect the very low levels of leverage used by Sri Lankan companies.     

Financial liberalization,market structure and credit penetration

This paper shows that the effects of financial liberalization on the credit market of a small and capital constrained economy depend on the market structure of domestic banks prior to liberalization. Specifically, under perfect competition in the domestic credit market prior to liberalization, liberalization leads to lower domestic interest rates, in turn leading to increased credit penetration. However, when the initial market structure is one of imperfect competition, liberalization can lead to the exclusion of less wealthy entrepreneurs from the credit market. This provides a rationale for the mixed empirical evidence concerning the effects of liberalization on access to credit in developing markets. Moreover, the analysis provides new insights into the consequences of foreign lenders’ entry into developing economies.     

Stock market returns and annuitization

I investigate the strong negative relation between recent stock returns and the annuitization of retirement savings using a novel data set with over 100,000 actual payout decisions. After controlling for several standard explanations (e.g., wealth effects), I present evidence supporting naïve beliefs and extrapolation from past returns. The effect of recent returns on annuitization dramatically increases with age, confirming that the elderly rely most heavily on recent information. My results provide insights into how beliefs are formed in old age and have implications for the design of public policies seeking to promote annuitization.     

Stock market liquidity and firm value

This paper investigates the relation between stock liquidity and firm performance. The study shows that firms with liquid stocks have better performance as measured by the firm market-to-book ratio. This result is robust to the inclusion of industry or firm fixed effects, a control for idiosyncratic risk, a control for endogenous liquidity using two-stage least squares, and the use of alternative measures of liquidity. To identify the causal effect of liquidity on firm performance, we study an exogenous shock to liquidity—the decimalization of stock trading—and show that the increase in liquidity around decimalization improves firm performance. The causes of liquidity's beneficial effect are investigated: Liquidity increases the information content of market prices and of performance-sensitive managerial compensation. Finally, momentum trading, analyst coverage, investor overreaction, and the effect of liquidity on discount rates or expected returns do not appear to drive the results.     

Stock market synchronization and monetary integration

This paper focuses on the relationship between stock market comovements and monetary integration. A panel specification is used to explain bilateral stock market return correlations between fifteen developed economies over the period 1975-2006. Time fixed effects are included to capture global shocks and we also examine the role of bilateral trade linkages and international financial integration. Monetary integration leads to stronger stock market synchronization, both through the elimination of exchange rate volatility and through the common monetary policy and the convergence of inflation expectations. Trade and financial integration also contribute to higher stock market return comovements.     

金融债券市场的创新和发展

近年来,我国银行间债券市场一直保持健康的发展势头,已形成具有交易规模较大、交易品种多样化和参与主体多元化等特征的市场体系。金融债券市场作为这一市场体系的重要组成部分,在人民银行等主管部门的积极推动下,通过不断创新金融债券产品类型、逐步完善市场管理制度、不断深化市场功能,见证并有力支持了银行间债券市场的健康发展。     

The World Bank's innovation market

Large, tradition-bound organizations can make space for radical, low-cost (and therefore low-risk) innovations. Just ask executives at the World Bank. The story of this best practice begins in 1998, when a young new-products group at the international funding agency proposed holding an Innovation Marketplace to capture novel ideas within the Bank for alleviating poverty. The forum, which eventually was opened to external participants, let people informally present their antipoverty ideas to potential funding sources. Funders could move among hundreds of booths and evaluate proposals for, say, a program that would provide postdisaster reconstruction insurance in developing countries or a vaccination development initiative. The marketplace truncated the Bank's standard project-review processes, which often stretched to a year or more, and gave funders permission to make commitments in the tens of thousands of dollars, rather than in the tens of millions more typical of Bank-financed projects. The marketplace concept met with some skepticism at the beginning. Some senior executives at the Bank felt no group had the right to spend the agency's money without following its well-established resource allocations process. But the marketplace team believed an open process for allocating grants would produce more breakthrough ideas in the long run than a centralized one. In this article, the authors describe how the new-products team brainstormed to create a market for ideas, how it got senior management's support, and how it has expanded on the original concept for these innovation marketplaces. The program's success, they contend, offers hope both for the world's poor and for business leaders looking to find new ideas under the hard crust of corporate dogma, conformance, and bureaucracy.     

评价股市:视野和方向

对中国股市如何评价?可以说是仁者见仁,智者见智.乐观者有之,悲观者有之.前不久在2006年中国企业高峰会论坛的"资本市场分论坛",来自海内外的专家就中国资本市场的发展发表了各自的看法,其中中国证监会副主席屠光绍和著名学者许小年的发言最为人关注     

中国金融衍生产品市场的创新与实验

文章介绍了国际上主要的金融市场创新产品的概念和种类,并从资产证券化产品的结构与流动性,及不同产品的业务需求等方面概括了这些创新产品在国内的发展特征。从金融基础和生态环境的成熟度看,建议以上海作为产品创新的试点和突破口,进一步拓展资产证券化市场,适时引入房地产信托基金,从而更好地以金融产品创新促进长三角地区金融市场协调发展,推动上海国际金融中心建设。     

金融自由化要从内部开始

前不久,第一届中国金融市场分析年会上,经济学家、上海证券交易所研究中心主任胡汝银教授做了题为《中国证券市场发展的政策取向》的演讲.在这次报告中,胡教授提出要对困扰国内资本市场多年的若干基本问题重新审视,提出对市场更为大胆的政策优化设计.会后,本刊记者对胡教授进行了独家专访     

Stock market seasonality: International Evidence

This study examines empirically stock market seasonality in major industrialized countries. Evidence is provided that there are strong seasonalities in the stock market return distributions in most of the capital markets around the world. The seasonality, when it exists, appears to be caused by the disproportionately large January returns in most countries and April returns in the U.K. With the exception of australia, these months also coincide with the turn of the tax year.     

Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk

This paper proposes an autoregressive regime-switching model of stock price dynamics in which the process creates pricing bubbles in one regime while error-correction prevails in the other. In the bubble regime the stock price depends negatively on inflation. In the error-correction regime it depends on the price-dividend ratio. We find that the probability of regime-switch depends on exogenous inflation and lagged price. The model is consistent with Shleifer and Vishny's theoretical noise trader and arbitrageur model and Modigliani's inflation illusion phenomenon. The results emphasize the importance of inflation and the price-dividend ratio when assessing investment risk.     

Stock market listing status and real earnings management

This study analyzes real earnings management among privately held versus publicly listed firms. Our first finding is that public firms engage in more earnings management through operating activities. When a clear incentive to manage earnings in a specific direction is present we continue to find that public firms manage their earnings more than private firms. We reason that capital market pressure and ownership characteristics drive our results. Additional analyses reveal that public firms employ more real earnings management as a proportion of the total earnings management strategy. Furthermore, we find that mitigating factors of real earnings management have stronger impact in public firms. This study contributes to literature on non-accrual earnings management and to the broader understanding about the private vis-à-vis public firm reporting and operating behavior. Finally, we contribute by identifying an important societal cost of stock market listing, which is the increase in potentially value-destroying real earnings management.     

Stock market trading activity and returns around milestones

We study the relation between daily stock market trading activity and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJIA) movement around millenary milestones—numbers that end in three zeros. We find aggregate turnover to be 5% lower when the DJIA level is less than 1% away from the nearest milestone. The effect emerges as the DJIA approaches a milestone from below, and is stronger for first-time milestones compared to subsequent passages. The aggregate price impact is large, such that daily stock returns show a negative abnormal performance of − 10 basis points. Our findings suggest that millenary milestones of the DJIA play a role in some investors' decision making.     

Stock market dynamics with rational liquidity traders

In the Kyle (1985) finite horizon model of stock market dynamics with a trader who holds long-lived information, informed trading intensities rise with time, and the slopes of the equilibrium price schedules fall. This paper shows that this result depends crucially on the irrational liquidity trader assumption. We replace the irrational noise traders with a sequence of rational, risk averse, liquidity traders who receive endowment shocks to their holdings of the risky asset. We demonstrate that unless liquidity traders are sufficiently risk averse, the slope of equilibrium price schedule rises over time, while informed trading intensities fall. In particular, Kyle's result holds only when liquidity traders are so risk averse that they ‘over-rebalance’ their portfolio's holdings of the risky asset, so that their final holdings of the risky asset have the opposite sign of their initial position.     

基于差分和LZW算法的股票实时行情传输系统

一、引言在工程的实际应用中,经常会遇到这样一类的数据传输问题:信息按时间序列逐步发生变化,相邻样本间的相关系数很大,其相关系数随着取样率提高而更强,例如股票实时行情库信息包、电话费的实时余额信息库、语音信号、视频信号等。解决这一类问题需要在多媒体信号处理中采用     

中美新股发行市场差异比较——成熟股市与新兴股市IPO之差别比较

摘自董登新搜狐博客2010年1～8月,在美国主板NYSE和创业板NASDAQ,共有108家公司申请新股发行,但最终只有87只新股成功发行并挂牌上市,另有21只新股至今尚未发行,其中,3只新股＂撤销发行＂,18只新股＂暂缓发行＂。在此,本文仅就发行成功并挂牌上市的87只新股展开分析。