Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?

Factors determining the diffusion of digital mobile telephony across developed and developing countries are studied with the aid of a Gompertz model. After controlling for other factors, the speed of diffusion per se is not significantly different between the two groups of countries. Standards competition hinders and market competition promotes diffusion in both groups. Various factors are, however, more important in a developing country context: having a large potential user base, accumulating network effects, being open, commanding a high (non-telecom) technological level, and introducing innovation(s) complementing mobile telephony. Late entrants experience faster diffusion promoting cross-country convergence.     

Moving targets: Introducing mobility into universal service obligations

Structural changes in the economies of developing countries are leading to increased mobility of work and family life, and so an accommodating set of universal service obligations (USOs) implies new goals that extend beyond wireline telephone penetration and access. Wireless telephony penetration frequently exceeds wireline penetration in developing countries, and digital wireless platforms can incorporate Internet technology. This paper evaluates the history of telecom development in Mexico that has led to wireless telephony becoming the new consumption norm. The study takes the eMexico project as a case study of diversified USOs beyond wireline telephony. It considers potential obstacles to incorporating mobile phone and Internet (“Wireless Web”) services into Mexico's diversified universal service policy, including economic barriers to political mobilization over issues of telecom policy.     

Pricing calls to mobiles: analysis of the UK Monopolies & Mergers Commission Reports on mobile termination charges

The UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission (MMC) nine-month inquiry into fixed-to-mobile termination charges provides an exhaustive analysis of competitive and cost factors in mobile telephony. Its recommendations are discussed and compared with those of the telecommunications regulator, OFTEL, which referred the mobile operators to the MMC after failure to agree a further reduction in charges in early 1998. The MMC, following the same general statutory duty required of OFTEL, to promote competition under the Telecommunications Act 1984, provided a radically different analysis and disagreed with most of OFTEL's specific proposals suggesting that some were anti-competitive. As telecommunications regulators are increasingly required to implement pro-competitive regulation, the MMC's reports show that the evolving approach of sectoral regulators contains some significant flaws.     

Ubiquitous technologies and 5G development. Who is leading the race?

The introduction of the fifth generation of mobile technology (5G) is expected to bring disruptive changes. These changes will be much more pervasive than any previous introduction of new mobile ‘generations’ and they are expected to influence the whole economy. For this reason, the global rush for 5G technology is not only considered crucial in economic or technological terms, but also for its implications in terms of geopolitics, international policy and national security.This paper presents an analysis of the patents in the most relevant fields of specialization connected to the 5G development. The period under investigation is from 2010 to 2019, and the data are extracted from the European Patent Office (EPO) and the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) database. The analysis shows how the technologies and the specialisations needed to develop 5G are in the hands of a few countries around the globe, and how single European countries, taken in isolation, are not among those leading players. However, Europe, considered as a whole, competes well with the US and Asia in terms of patented innovations, suggesting the economic and strategic relevance of strengthening cooperation within the EU.     

Impact of spectrum management policy on the penetration of 3G technology

Diffusion of 3G cellular technology varies widely across countries and regions. Past studies have shown that lower levels of diffusion of previous technologies and higher levels of income are significant factors in accelerating the take up of 1st and 2nd generation of mobile telephony. In addition, spectrum management policy plays a significant role in shaping 3G diffusion. Regulatory policies regarding spectrum management include mandating band and technology and decisions to hold spectrum auctions. An econometric analysis over a multi-country panel dataset shows that these spectrum management policies do have significant influence on the take-up of 3G. Findings suggest that the presence of multiple technologies for the previous generation is associated with rollout delay. The estimations indicate that countries that mandated a specific frequency band for 3G saw faster roll out, but in the long run those countries experienced a slower growth rate. Also estimations find that 3G diffusion is not significantly affected by the choice of auctions vs. alternative license award processes. Insights gained from this study of the 2G to 3G transition can provide guidance to regulators now contemplating the transition to newer generations.     

Technology neutrality: Exploring the interaction between International Mobile Telecommunication and national spectrum management policies

This paper reviews ITU-R actions with respect to IMT standardisation, and explores how these actions affect national spectrum management decisions such as those related to technology neutrality. Our analysis, which is based on 52 interviews, demonstrates that the IMT standardisation activities do not explicitly influence the decision of the regulator on the adoption of technology neutrality. They do, however, contain a range of positive (encouraging) and negative (discouraging) perspectives that shape the regulator's views on technology neutrality are two contrasting views on whether there is mutual influence between the IMT definitions within the ITU-R, and 3G and 4G market definitions.Nationally IMT standardisation has largely no influence on the discrimination between mobile technology generations (e.g., 3G, 4G etc.). The IMT spectrum identification has positive influences on selecting technologies from the IMT family.     

Distinctive arrangements for international interconnection?

An issue of growing importance in telecommunications policy is the relationship between interconnection for domestic and international telephony. While international telephony's need for international transport is an inherent distinction, that factor will not determine distinctions in interconnection arrangements. Under the existing pricing structure for telephony, cross-border rent shifting is the key issue. Innovations in the pricing structure for telephony, whether through Internet telephony or other avenues, offer the potential for changing the structure of interconnection negotiations and eliminating distinctions between international and domestic telephony interconnection.     

Forecasting telecommunications data with linear models

For telecommunication companies to successfully manage their business, companies rely on mapping future trends and usage patterns. However, the evolution of telecommunications technology and systems in the provision of services renders imperfections in telecommunications data and impinges on a company's’ ability to properly evaluate and plan their business. International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Recommendation E.507 provides a selection of econometric models for forecasting these trends. However, no specific guidance is given. This paper evaluates whether simple extrapolation techniques in Recommendation E.507 can generate accurate forecasts. Standard forecast error statistics—mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), median absolute percentage error and percentage better—show the ARIMA, Holt and Holt-D models provide better forecasts than a random walk and other linear extrapolation methods.     

Impacts of mobile Internet use intensity on the demand for SMS and voice services of mobile network operators: An empirical multi-method study of German mobile Internet customers

Scholarly and business publications alike convey the message that past and future strong growth in mobile Internet (MI) access and service demand has solely positive commercial implications for mobile network operators (MNOs). This position neglects the possibility that increasing MI use intensity may lead to demand decreases for the highly profitable short messaging service (SMS) and mobile voice telephony. The extant literature provides few insights on relations between MI use intensity, on the one hand, and SMS as well as mobile voice call use intensities, on the other hand. This study developed hypotheses concerning the presence or absence of impacts of MI use intensity and circumstances of MI use (e.g., device type, tariff scheme) on the demand for SMS and mobile voice telephony at the individual customer level. The hypotheses were tested by analyzing actual use behaviors of 304 MI adopters in Germany, for whom objective use intensity data were extracted from the billing system of an MNO. These non-reactive measures were combined with responses collected from the adopters through a telephone survey. Multivariate regression results suggest that though MI use intensity significantly negatively affected both number of SMS sent and received, these effects were so small that their practical relevance is highly doubtful. Further, customers who used MI more intensively did not generate lower volumes of outgoing or incoming mobile voice connection minutes. Conclusions are drawn for MNO, telecommunications sector regulators and scholarly researchers seeking to explain the acceptance of mobile communications services.     

Developing and Using Forecasting Models of Consumer Durables The Case of Color Television

Predicting the future sales of new and established products is a critical activity for companies to be able to plan and control their operations. Forecasting consumer durable sales is an especially difficult and challenging task since the marketplace is always changing. Barry Bayus, Saman Hong and Russell Labe present the concept of a market-driven forecasting model and discuss an application involving the forecasting of color television industry sales for RCA's Consumer Electronics Division. An important aspect of this application is that a single approach or model was inadequate to accurately forecast sales over the entire period since the introduction of color TV. Econometric and simulation models which were developed are described, along with their forecasting performance and management acceptance and use.     

Leadership with 5G in Europe: Two contrasting images of the future,with policy and regulatory implications

European policy makers have shown a keen interest in the success of 5G because ubiquitous and high capacity electronic communication infrastructure is recognized as a cornerstone of economic development and productivity growth. The second generation, GSM, is considered the leading example, reaching its peak of deployment in 2015 with 3.83 billion subscribers served by over 700 operators in 219 countries and territories.With 5G rapidly shaping up in the R&D and standardization environments, and a call for leadership with 5G in Europe by policy makers, it is timely to investigate what lessons can be learned from the success of 2G that can be applied to 5G. More broadly, this calls for research into the commonalities and differences between successive generations of mobile technology, their introduction and the market adoption that followed. This also calls for an investigation into the possibility of multiple futures of 5G and how that impacts the opportunity for leadership. As one future may be more desirable than the other, depending on the perspective of the actor involved, a policy debate will be required to determine the most desirable future. As well as a discussion of the policy and regulatory actions required to enable a particular future.Hence, the two-part research question being addressed in this paper is: What explains the success of 2G-GSM and how can it be applied to create success with 5G in the European Union?To respond to the research question this paper first identifies the leadership lessons to be drawn from the success of 2G-GSM in relation to its successors 3G and 4G. Secondly, the contribution describes two stylized images of possible futures of 5G, called “Evolution” and “Revolution”, as input to the policy debate on the options for leadership with 5G. These images reflect two extremes in terms of possible futures of 5G. “Evolution” follows the pattern of previous generations and current trends. “Revolution” represents a clear break with these trends and a path towards leadership with 5G, as it exploits the opportunities of standardized APIs for service creation, being enabled by network virtualization as an architectural foundation of 5G. These open and uniformly applied APIs allow the market entry of a multitude of virtual mobile network operators (VMNOs) serving particular industry verticals or economic sectors with tailored feature sets and qualities of services. They allow a market momentum to be built that constitutes leadership with 5G in Europe.     

Obtaining global market access for GMPCS

Demand for wireless telephony is huge and the potential for GMPCS, in particular, is widely recognized. However, the most serious problems to the introduction of GMPCS are not technical, nor financial, but are rather the political and regulatory barriers—notably fear of bypass and security concerns. Inmarsat does not believe that there should be any a priori limit to the number of GMPCS operators offering satellite capacity to national service providers. The market can best determine which will be successful. However, before countries open their markets, they will need to be convinced that it is in their interest to do so.     

Customer ownership of the local loop. A solution to the problem of interconnection

Interconnection is necessary for competition in telephony, but interconnection agreements are difficult to negotiate. With local service competition, entrants usually cannot duplicate the local loop, so interconnection also involves ‘renting’ the incumbent's local loops. An incumbent may object to being asked to permit use of its infrastructure by its competitors, in order to allow its competitors to compete with it. If customers own their local loops, however, the problems of interconnection virtually disappear: customers will determine whose traffic their loops carry, and incumbents will not have to supply competitors with the means of competing with them.     

Are OTT messaging and mobile telecommunication an interrelated market? An empirical analysis

OTT messengers such as Facebook and WhatsApp have gained wide popularity among mobile users while the traffic of text messaging is in strong decline. As such, there is a debate over whether both services are interrelated and constitute a joint product market, which has important implications for the current wave of mergers in the mobile industry and regulation policy. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to provide an empirical analysis of how the consumption of OTT messengers affects demand for text messaging and mobile voice services. We make use of an innovative dataset which includes very detailed information on smartphone usage in Norway and consider a novel approach to address this question which is embedded in the complexity of two-sided markets. Interestingly, our findings suggest that OTT messengers complement demand for traditional mobile telecommunication services for this context. Consequently, both markets are interrelated but do not constitute a joint market from the perspective of competition policy in Norway. Moreover, we find an explanation for why reductions of text messaging usage have been so drastic in some countries and an analogous development for mobile voice is rather unlikely. Finally, our empirical results provide a new perspective on the modelling of consumer utility in communication networks in the theoretical literature.     

Networking as a Means to Strategy Change: The Case of Open Innovation in Mobile Telephony

The purpose of this article is to investigate how innovation networks can be used to deal with a changing technological environment. This study combines different concepts related to research and development (R&D) collaboration strategies of large firms and applies these concepts to R&D alliance projects undertaken by Nokia Corporation in the period 1985–2002. The research methodology is a combination of in‐depth semistructured interviews and a large‐scale quantitative analysis of alliance agreements. For the empirical analysis a distinction is made between exploration and exploitation in innovation networks in terms of three different measures. As a first measure, the difference between exploration and exploitation strategies by means of the observed capabilities of the partners of the contracting firms is investigated. The second measure is related to partner turnover. The present article argues that in exploration networks partner turnover will be higher than in exploitation networks. As a third measure, the type of alliance contract will be taken; exploration networks will make use of flexible legal organizational structures, whereas exploitation alliances are associated with legal structures that enable long‐term collaboration. The case of Nokia has illustrated the importance of strategic technology networks for strategic repositioning under conditions of change. Nokia followed an exploitation strategy in the development of the first two generations of mobile telephony and an exploration strategy in the development of technologies for the third generation. Such interfirm networks seem to offer flexibility, speed, innovation, and the ability to adjust smoothly to changing market conditions and new strategic opportunities. These two different strategies have led to distinctly different international innovation networks, have helped the company in becoming a world leader in the mobile phone industry, and have enabled it to sustain that position in a radically changed technological environment. This study also illustrates that Nokia effectively uses an open innovation strategy in the development of new products and services and in setting technology standards for current and future use of mobile communication applications. This article presents one of the first longitudinal studies, which describes the use of innovation networks as a means to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions and strategic change. This study contributes to the emerging, but still inconsistent, literature on explorative and exploitative learning by means of strategic technology networks.     

The impact of aggregation level on forecasting performance

Most operations decisions are based on some kind of forecast of future demand. Thus, forecasting is definitely a very traditional area in the operations and inventory management literature. While literature concerning forecast explores the adoption of various qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper tries to design new solutions to improve forecasting accuracy by focusing on the forecasting process that uses such algorithms. In particular, when forecasting demand one should always make clear exactly what he/she is trying to forecast, in terms of the time bucket (i.e., the period of time over which demand is aggregated), the forecasting horizon, the set of items the demand refers to (e.g., forecasting demand for a single item can be much harder than forecasting demand for a group of items), the set of locations the demand refers to (e.g., demand at the single store level is much less predictable than the demand for a whole chain of stores). Traditionally, these features of the final output of forecasting also influence the forecasting process. Indeed, when one wants to forecast demand at single store single item single day level it seems natural to analyse demand and causal factors at the same level of aggregation. On the contrary, in this paper we aim at showing that, first of all often aggregating and/or disaggregating data in the forecasting process can lead to substantial improvements; second, the choice of the appropriate level of aggregation depends on the underlying demand generation process.In addition, most forecasting algorithms tend to focus on a single demand variable. On the contrary, we can analyse analogous time series to improve the effectiveness of the forecasting process. Clustering techniques can be used to identify such homologous time series. Such clusters of homologous time series can provide, on the one hand, the sample size required to gain good statistical confidence and, on the other hand, relatively homogeneous data.In the paper, we use sales data from a food retailer at a very detailed level to test our hypotheses. This claims for relevance for both practitioners and researchers.