WTO规则下的农业补贴改革:逻辑、效果与方向

进入21世纪,我国工业开始反哺农业,但由于加入WTO,农业补贴受到其相关规则的约束。按规则,中国可实施受约束的"黄箱"、不受约束的"绿箱"和"蓝箱"政策。本文从WTO规则视角分析了2014—2017年间农业"三项补贴"改革和玉米、大豆临时收储政策改革的内在逻辑,评估了改革对拓展农业补贴政策支持空间的实际效果,并探讨了稻谷和小麦最低收购价政策的问题及其改革方向。研究认为,第一,在WTO规则约束下,改革旨在解决"箱体"错用——以"黄箱"之名行"绿箱"之实的问题和"黄箱"约束突破的问题。第二,通过"黄箱"调"绿箱",农业"三项补贴"改革解决了"箱体"错用的问题,扩展了近900亿元的"黄箱"支持空间;通过"黄箱"调"蓝箱",临时收储政策改革扭转了玉米和大豆"黄箱"支持超标的局面。第三,当前稻谷和小麦最低收购价政策的困境在于归属"黄箱"的价格支持已被WTO规则"锁定",下一步改革应由价格支持,转变为生产者补贴、粮食适度规模经营补贴等其他"黄箱"政策和粮食作物或收入保险等不受约束的"绿箱"政策。     

农产品营销服务补贴政策研究报告

<正>农产品营销服务补贴及其重要性(一)农产品营销服务补贴的界定根据WTO《农业协议》,农业补贴政策主要分为绿箱政策、黄箱政策、蓝箱政策等三种类型。农产品营销服务(或称农产品营销和促销服务)补贴属于"政府一般服务",包括与特定产品有关的市场信息、咨询和促销,是典型的绿箱政策。农产品营销一般被界定为"农产品从农户手中到消费者手中的一切商业及服务活动"。农产品营销服务补贴,是指针对农产品营销服务(包括农产品商品化处理、产销信息     

国外农产品最低支持价格政策演进及其对中国的启示

本文在梳理国内外农产品最低支持价格政策研究文献的基础上,探讨了各国价格支持政策的实施背景、政策内容、政策效果和演变趋势。研究表明,为解决农产品供不应求、农民收入过低等问题,部分国家以生产成本和市场价格为参考标准,制定并实施了最低支持价格政策,对于鼓励农业生产、增加农民收入发挥了一定作用,但也导致了粮食生产过剩和市场价格扭曲等问题,为避免市场扭曲并保证农民收益,各国逐渐将最低支持价格政策转变为直接收入补贴,辅之以限产休耕、农业保险和绿色发展等配套措施。我国在当前农产品价格形成机制的改革过程中,应当吸取世界各国经验,对粮食最低收购价、临时收储和目标价格补贴政策进行改革时,应实施"脱钩化"和"半脱钩化"设计,以利用"蓝箱"空间和非特定产品支持的"黄箱"空间;同时通过限产休耕和定向直接补贴等方式调整农业生产结构,并通过农业保险和政府一般服务等政策措施,保障农民收益和国家粮食安全。     

应用可计算一般均衡模型分析中国农业国内支持政策

本文主要的研究目的即在运用可计算一般均衡模型研究中国农业国内支持政策的变动对国民经济的影响,重点对当前我国农业国内支持水平和结构的优化进行分析。通过对模型的计算,得出中国农业国内支持政策的"黄箱"政策在提高农民收入的同时,也在农产品国际贸易、农产品国内价格方面存在不同程度的扭曲。     

美国的农业政策与WTO合规：2018—2020

2018年美国新农业法案以加深的"黄箱"政策应对2013年以来全球农产品市场下行给美国农业带来的严重冲击,加强了对农民的保护。之后,美国政府为应对贸易摩擦影响出台的两轮市场促进计划(MFP)以及为应对新冠疫情冲击出台的两轮新冠疫情食物援助计划(CFAP)和薪酬保护项目(PPP),直接导致美国农业综合支持量在历史上第一次超出其对WTO做出的承诺。美国在WTO规则制定上扮演核心角色,在乌拉圭回合谈判后美国农业政策的市场化改革发展一度引领世界农业政策转型。目前,美国违背加入WTO承诺的做法对以规则为基础的WTO和多边贸易规则带来了挑战,分析其农业政策变化趋势、动机和支持方式等对判断未来美国农业政策走向和未来的农产品国际贸易秩序具有重要意义。     

美国农产品目标价格补贴政策演化路径分析

农产品目标价格补贴政策是由价格支持转向直接补贴的基本政策选择。目标价格补贴政策在美国实施70多年的经验和教训表明:第一,任何单一的政策措施很难兼顾多个目标,目标价格补贴要和其他政策工具组合使用,才能取得更好的效果。第二,任何具体政策的有效性都是有条件的,只有随着国内外市场条件、财政状况和WTO农业规则的变化,不断创新目标价格补贴的具体形式和政策组合,才能更好地适应形势变化和规避WTO"黄箱"约束。第三,半脱钩化的补贴方式可以更好地保证补贴效率、促进种植结构调整和规避WTO"黄箱"规则,是中国农产品目标价格补贴方式创新的可选策略。第四,农产品补贴政策的有效实施,需要一系列配套措施保障和基础数据支撑,因此,建立完善的农业统计、预测、信息发布制度和开放共享的农业基础信息平台,是配套农产品支持政策改革必须推进的战略性基础工作。     

陕西省主要粮食作物生产成本收益研究——以小麦、玉米为例

陕西省是我国的农业大省,粮食作物的生产成本和收益与农民收入直接相关,对农村经济的可持续发展具有重要影响。文章分析了陕西省主要粮食作物的种植现状,以小麦、玉米为例探究了主要粮食作物的生产成本收益,并对生产中存在的问题及潜力进行了详细分析,结果表明,尽管实施了多项惠农政策,粮食作物生产仍表现为成本高,收益低,农民播种积极性不高;粮食生产面临形势严峻,但陕西省粮食生产有很大的潜力可以挖掘。该文还提出了提高农民耕种积极性、提高粮食作物单产水平、实现农业产业化等对策建议,以期为提高粮食作物产量和品质,提高生产成本收益提供一定依据。     

世界农产品补贴和反补贴发展趋势与中国的贸易政策选择

对于我国这样一个发展中的农业大国,面临严峻的国际农业补贴环境,发达国家黄箱支持的水平有反弹,获得支持的农产品品种集中程度越来越高,而且许多农产品单位产量获得的补贴值超过了我国相应农产品的市场销售价格。而我国农产品面临的反补贴形势越来越严峻。作为一个快速、健康发展中的农业大国,应该采取积极的反补贴贸易政策。     

科学引导结构调整 力促农业增收增效

近年来,广东省化州市委、市政府始终坚持以“三个代表重要思想为指导,牢固树立科学发展观,按照统筹城乡经济社会发展的要求,坚持以“多予、少取、放活的方针为指导,以“农业结构调优,农产品调好,竞争力调强,农民收入调高为思路,科学引导农业结构调整,深化农村改革,促进了农业增效、农民增收、农村稳定,有力推动了化州经济社会的整体发展。一、化州市农业结构调整的主要做法与成效(一)以政策为依据,巩固发展粮食产业。化州市在积极推动农业结构调整的同时,科学引导农民稳定发展水稻、玉米、大豆、番薯等粮食作物。特别是国家取消农业税、实行…     

农业支持政策亟待调整和完善

加入世界贸易组织以来,我国贸易自由化和城镇化快速推进。一方面农产品进口快速增加,进口农产品价格对国内农产品价格的影响日益显著,低价农产品大量进口抑制了国内农产品价格的上涨;另一方面劳动力、土地等生产要素价格快速上涨,生产成本不断上升,国内农产品价格竞争力进一步削弱,大宗农产品国内价格开始全面高于国际价格。随着农产品国内外价差不断扩大,我国农业宏观调控难度越来越大。我国农业生产面临价格"天花板"、成本"地板"和调控"空间"的三重挤压。     

Marketing reforms,market development and agricultural production in China

Chinese agricultural reforms have consisted of two transitional stages; initially decollectivization in the late 1970s followed by market liberalization in the mid 1980s. While much research has been conducted on the initial stage of increasing the incentives for farmers in collective cultivation, little quantitative evidence exists on how marketing reforms and the development of rural markets has affected agricultural production decisions. Using more accurate and disaggregated measures of the reform and market development components of liberalization than previous research, this study examined the effects of these liberalization policies on the agricultural production decisions in Shaanxi province. Procurement quota levels were found to be positively associated with the area planted to grain crops. Thus, quotas represent an effective way of increasing grain production and thereby also a means of achieving food self sufficiency which remains an important policy objective for the Chinese government. The involvement of state grain stations in free market grain trade and the expansion of rural markets has increased the area planted to the two potential cash crops, soybeans and wheat, and reduced the sown area of the Subsistence crop, corn reflecting the reduced need to plant corn as a self insurance mechanism for smoothing consumption. An increase in procurement quotas increases fertilizer use on grain crops, due to the policy of linking quotas to access to below-market priced fertilizer, but decreases the use of labor, which shifts to other more profitable enterprises. Market development has increased these off-farm employment opportunities and the earnings associated with them, thereby promoting the shift of labor out of crop production and increased the use of fertilizer which has also become more available.     

Trends in Agricultural Incomes: An Analysis at the Select Crop and State Levels in India

India's agricultural sector is at a crossroads, facing challenges of stagnation in crop yields, non‐remunerative prices, falling crop incomes and tardy responses from public service systems. There are reports of peasant suicides due to non‐profitability of farming. However, scant empirical evidence is available on changes in real income and wages in the Indian agricultural sector. The present study uses data from the National Accounts Statistics and Cost of Cultivation Surveys to analyse the changes in real income and discusses the underlying reasons. The study reveals that the purchasing power of farmers has remained low and has worsened over recent years. The value of crop output has increased, but a disproportionate rise in input costs has resulted in a fall in crop incomes in several states, with the agriculturally developed Punjab being an exception. Interestingly, real wage rates for agricultural labour have shown an increasing trend, indicating improvement in the welfare of labour.     

Economics of erosion-control and seed-fertilizer technologies for hillside farming in Honduras

With population growth still at very high rates and large-scale commercial farmers and cattle ranchers owning much of the more fertile valley land, small-scale farmers are concentrated on increasingly marginal, steeply sloping hillsides in Central America. The continuing soil erosion and land degradation in these low-input staple crop production hillside farming systems lead many to be pessimistic about increasing the agricultural incomes of these farmers. However, this study shows that the appropriate combination of improved technologies and agricultural policy or alternative production diversification strategies can improve the incomes of small-scale hillside farmers in southern Honduras by over 50%. The technology components considered are stone walls and ditches combined with living tree barriers to prevent erosion of the hillsides, and a package of improved sorghum seed, seed treatment, and modest doses of nitrogenous fertilizer. A whole-farm mathematical programming framework is used to determine the potential farm-level income effects of the soil-conservation and seed-fertilizer technologies. The main conclusion is that erosion-control devices and yield-increasing crop varieties and fertilizer are an effective technology introduction strategy for the erosion-prone hillside landholdings found in many areas of Central America. If policy actions or diversification strategies for disposal of surplus grain are found which are effective in reducing the risk of low income from cereal price reductions in high-production years, adoption of the improved technologies is shown to be profitable for small-scale farmers. Another benefit not explicitly considered would be to slow the very rapid growth of urban poverty in these countries. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that neither risk aversion nor the increased availability of crop land or initial cash have any substantial effects on the predicted adoption level of the improved technologies, or on their income impacts for these farmers.     

遥感技术在“两区”作物种植结构监测中的应用研究——以黑龙江省富锦市为例

目的 粮食生产功能区和重要农产品生产保护区（以下简称“两区”）划定是确保国家粮食安全和保障重要农产品有效供给的重要举措。文章调查“两区”内作物实际种植情况,探索遥感技术在“两区”作物种植结构监测和“两区”数据更新中的应用方法。方法 以黑龙江省富锦市为研究区,以Landsat8多光谱影像为数据源,采用遥感监测技术,对研究区范围内2020年水稻、玉米和大豆3种作物种植情况进行监测,识别3种作物并提取地块边界,形成作物空间分布矢量图,与“两区”划定成果图叠加对比,分析“两区”划定情况与实际种植情况的一致性。结果 （1）富锦市水稻生产功能区内水稻实际种植面积占比88.2%,玉米生产功能区内玉米实际种植面积比例为17.8%,大豆实际种植面积占大豆生产功能区的68.8%。（2）富锦市实际种植情况与“两区”划定成果要求种植面积存在明显差异,差异大小因作物不同而不同,主要受当地自然条件、国家政策和农民种植意愿的影响。结论 鉴于遥感技术可以在“两区”作物种植监测中发挥特殊作用,建议农业农村部门采用遥感技术对“两区”范围内作物种品种和种植面积等情况进行动态监测,及时掌握实际种植情况并更新“两区”数据库,实现精细化管理,进而为决策部门优化农业种植结构,保障国家粮食安全。     

近期中国主要农业国内支持政策评估

中国近期的农业政策出现了新的变化,本文意在对这些新政策可能带来的影响做出评估,并把这些结果和近年的实际情况进行比较。全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)的模拟结果显示,取消农业税和"四补贴"政策对粮食增产和农民增收有较为明显的效果,但粮食增产受到价格波动的影响更大;由于受到WTO规则的限制,"微量允许"措施对粮食增产的作用最大不会超过9%;国内粮食价格的上涨会在几年时间内持续扩大"微量允许"的使用空间,这使得政策的使用具有更大的弹性。     

新形势下高标准农田建设管理政策存在的问题及建议

目的 高标准农田建设是“藏粮于地,藏粮于技”的重要措施,在粮食安全问题重要性凸显的背景下,加强高标准农田建设意义非凡。通过分析机构改革后农田建设管理政策在实施过程中存在的问题及相应措施,将为政策完善提供方向和依据。方法 文章选取4个粮食主产省的8个粮食大县进行调研,组织省、市、县各级农田建设管理部门人员、新型经营主体等,采用半结构性方式进行访谈,研究分析农田建设政策落实及项目实施中存在的问题。结果 农田建设在提高粮食产能、促进农业机械化、增加农民收入、新增耕地指标和改善农田生态环境方面发挥了成效,但机构改革后的农田政策执行中还存在机制不全、体制不顺的问题,在组织协调、资金管理、项目内容管理和制度标准方面都有体现。问题根源主要来自政府部门及相关主体存在的“路径依赖”“重管理、轻服务”“一刀切”等倾向。结论 需从体制机制上完善农田建设管理政策,让高标准农田项目建设更高效,为保障粮食安全发挥更大作用。     

THE LOW EARNINGS OF AGRICULTURAL WORKERS: A SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACH*

This paper shows that agricultural economists have tended to account for the low incomes of agricultural workers by utilising the economic model which explains low returns to agriculture as a whole. This aproach is called low returns to agriculture as a whole. This approach is called into question by referring to regional data on workers' earnings and farmers' incomes. A sociological approach is outlined which takes account of the degree of choice open to agricultural workers to accept the earnings and conditions of agriculture.     

U.S. Farm Safety Nets and the 2000 Agricultural Risk Protection Act

Although crop insurance programs have been an important part of U.S. agricultural policy since the 1930s, the "safety net" matra has taken on new relevance and importance in recent policy deliberations and rhetoric. This paper contains a non technical review of issues underlying the safety net concept in U.S. agricultural policy. We outline recent changes in U.S. crop insurance programs and review provisions of the 2000 Agricultural Risk Protection Act (ARPA), which had a significant impact on U.S. risk management programs by expanding crop and revenue insurance subsidies and stimulating new product development. A simple empirical analysis of how these changes may have affected program participation is considered. We then outline points relevant to 2002 Farm Bill deliberations. As is pointed out, the safety net concept seems pervasive to all policy discussions. Countercylical payments, even when provided on an ad hoc basis, may distort production and trade conditions.     

农户参与小型农田水利设施管护行为的影响因素分析——基于对河南省方城县农户的调查

利用河南省方城县192个样本农户的调查数据,运用博弈模型逻辑和二元Logistic回归分析,分别从理论和实证上探究农户参与小型农田水利设施管护行为的影响因素。研究表明:农户拥有耕地数量、家庭劳动力短缺状况、种粮补贴占种粮投入比例、种粮收入占家庭总收入比重、政府对小型农田水利设施管护投入情况、小型农田水利设施管护对农业生产的重要程度等因素对农户参与小型农田水利设施管护行为正向影响显著,而村庄农户数量对农户参与小型农田水利设施管护行为负向影响显著。最后基于实证分析结果提出了相关政策建议。     

利用“绿箱”措施,加快中国林业发展研究综述

《农业协议》是规范成员国农林业补贴政策的国际规则,依据《农业协议》,特别是依据其中的“绿箱”措施来完善我国的林业补贴政策是我国的必然选择。本文回顾了我国农林业方面的研究文献,综述了其中与“绿箱”措施相关的观点,指出了我国财政支农政策的现状、趋势、效率、结构、原则、政策设计,总结了财政政策在我国林业投资、林业税费、生态效益补偿、林业生态工程等领域的运用情况,并在此基础上做了综合评论,提出今后的研究方向。