BANK COMPETITION AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: LIQUIDITY RISK PERSPECTIVE

We study whether competition affects banks' liquidity risk‐taking, which was at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis. We find that banks with greater market power take more liquidity risk, implying that decreased competition leads to financial fragility. During a financial crisis, however, the effect of market power on liquidity risk varies across bank size. Small banks with greater market power reduce liquidity risk while large banks with greater market power do not change their liquidity risk‐taking behavior. This suggests that enhanced charter values due to reduced competition lowers small banks' risk‐shifting incentives when their default risk significantly increases during a crisis. (JEL G21, G28)     

MARKET DISCIPLINING OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES' SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS

In this article, we contribute to the current literature on market disciplining of the sovereign governments of the developing countries by distinguishing both sides of the market discipline hypothesis by adopting three‐stage least square estimation to incorporate the contemporaneous feedback effects between primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premiums. We provide empirical evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship between a country's default‐risk premium and primary structural budget balances with the direction flowing from primary structural budget balances to country's risk premium in 40 developing countries over the period 1975–2008. We also employ the Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel generalized methods of moments estimation to control for this joint determination of primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premium, and find supportive evidence of undisciplined sovereign governments and of nonlinearly behaving well‐functioning financial markets in the sample countries. (JEL C5, G1, G3)     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCOME IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial system development and economic development. Using cointegration and vector autoregressive estimations on annual data from Africa, we examine the nature of the relationship between financial development and income. We find mixed results on both the short‐ and the long‐run relationships between the two variables. We find finance causing income, income causing finance, and bidirectional causality. The results indicate that neither the short‐run effects nor the long‐run relationship seem to linearly depend on the level of financial development or the stage of development. (JEL E44, O16, G20)     

THE RISK OF FIRE SALES IN THE TRI‐PARTY REPO MARKET

This paper studies the risk of “fire sales” in the tri‐party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short‐term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find that limited tools are available to mitigate the risk of predefault fire sales and that no established tools currently exist to mitigate the risk of postdefault sales. (JEL G01, G18)     

The Korean financial crisis and the soft budget constraint

A panel of Korean firms is used to test for the soft budget constraint (SBC) in bank lending before and after the 1997–1998 financial crisis. SBC is present if a firm can borrow from its bank despite being in financial distress, which we define by a low Altman's z-score. We find that prior to 1997 financially distressed firms were able to borrow while after the crisis their ability to borrow declined substantially. We also demonstrate that SBC was a significant factor in the firms’ propensity to default during the crisis.     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints

Corporate default risk can affect financial stability and the macroeconomy. However, the determinants of corporate default risk in China are not well defined in the literature. We address this issue by using a rich credit event dataset of 981 Chinese listed firms over the period 1998–2013 and study the factors that affect default risk. We demonstrate that leverage, liquidity, firm size are the key firm-specific factors in determining default risk in China, along with macroeconomic factors like interest rate and stock return. Moreover, ‘Too big to fail’ only applies to non-SOEs, as default risk of SOEs is not affected by the firm size. We further find that high liquidity fails to reduce firms default risk, because small-sized firms which are financially constrained have limited cash to prevent financial distress, whereas large firms with greater cash holdings are able to mitigate their default risk as they are unconstrained.     

Risks of Latin America sovereign debts before and after the financial crisis

We investigate the financial determinants of the return and volatility of sovereign CDS spread from six major Latin American countries before and after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Other than CBOE VIX index, we also find that global factors including US Baa–Aaa default yield, TED spread and US Treasury rate all contribute to the changes in these sovereign CDS spread. Although global risk aversion (VIX) is a significant determinant of sovereign debt spread, in the years after the crisis, the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk (TED). Furthermore, the risk of Greek sovereign debt crisis also transmitted Latin American CDS spreads immediately, but only in the post-Lehman sub-period. These findings provide implications for international bonds and credit derivatives trading strategies.     

BUSINESS METHOD PATENTS AND U.S. FINANCIAL SERVICES

A decade after the State Street decision, more than 1,000 business method patents are granted each year. Yet, only 1 in 10 is obtained by a financial institution. Most business method patents are also software patents. Have these patents increased innovation in financial services? To address this question, we construct new indicators of research and development intensity based on the occupational composition of financial industries. The financial sector appears more research intensive than official statistics would suggest but less than the private economy taken as a whole. There is considerable variation across industries but little apparent trend. There does not appear to be an obvious effect from business method patents on the sector's research intensity. Looking ahead, three factors suggest that the patent system may affect financial services as it has electronics: (1) the sector's heavy reliance on information technology, (2) the importance of standard setting, and (3) the strong network effects exhibited in many areas of finance. Even today litigation is not uncommon; we sketch a number of significant examples affecting financial exchanges and consumer payments. The legal environment is changing quickly. We review a number of important federal court decisions that will affect how business method patents are obtained and enforced. We also review a number of proposals under consideration in the U.S. Congress. (JEL O31, O34, G20)     

THE EFFECT OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ON FRESHMAN FINANCIAL AID

When the economy slips into recession, more needy students enroll in college, increasing the need for financial aid while resources for aid become more scarce. We use “Freshman Survey” data from the Higher Education Research Institute to observe changes in financial aid composition from 1980 to 2000. We use state‐level tax revenues, unemployment rates, and personal income growth as macroeconomic indicators. During recessions, we find that the burden of financing a student's college education shifts from states and institutions to families and federal programs. We also show that these macroeconomic fluctuations are increasingly volatile for underrepresented minorities. (JEL I22, H52, E32)     

AN EVALUATION OF FINANCIAL INCENTIVE POLICIES FOR ORGAN DONATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper examines the association between financial incentives and organ donations. Although the National Organ Transplant Act of 1984 prohibits financial compensation for organs for transplant, we focus on the impact of laws that influence the relative cost of deceased and live organ donations on the supply of organs for transplant. First, we hypothesize that states that have relatively stringent funeral regulations, which have been associated with higher whole‐body donations, will have fewer organ donations. Second, we examine the impact of two common state laws that offer financial compensation to live donors: one that allows a tax deduction for costs incurred and the other which entitles government employees up to 30 days of paid leave. We find no evidence to support that these laws affect organ donations. (JEL I11, I18)     

DO PSYCHOLOGICAL SHOCKS AFFECT FINANCIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR? A STUDY OF U.S. VETERANS

Traditional economic theories assume that individuals are endowed with certain risk preferences that are unaltered by experiences. However, recent evidence indicates that macroeconomic shocks do have an effect on an individual's willingness to take financial risks. In the context of investment decisions, we examine empirically whether an individual's risk preferences are affected by other types of traumatic life experiences. Using a unique proprietary data set, we investigate whether personal traumatic experiences—such as the combat experiences of veterans—have long‐term effects on financial risk‐taking behavior. We find that having experienced combat decreases the probability of investing in risky assets. Key policy implications are noted. (JEL G11, D14)     

SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Opposing theoretical arguments exist regarding the effect of environmental regulation on financial performance. Some studies argue that environmental regulation constrains firms' abilities to exploit revenue‐enhancing or cost‐reducing opportunities. Other studies, representing the Porter hypothesis, argue that environmental regulation motivates firms to innovate, which ultimately improves financial performance. Although much of the debate focuses on long‐run effects, there are also important short‐run effects. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the short‐run and long‐run effects of Clean Water Act regulation on financial performance. To generate this evidence, we examine the effect of permitted wastewater discharge limits, on the return on sales, using panel data on publicly owned firms in the chemical manufacturing industries. We find that Clean Water Act regulation improves financial performance in both the short run and the long run with a stronger effect in the long run. These results suggest that some net benefits may be realized during a short‐run transition to comply with a tighter permitted discharge limit, with additional benefits accruing to the firm in the long run because the firm has more time to innovate. (JEL K23, L25, L51, L65, Q52)     

ASIAN FINANCIAL LINKAGE: MACRO‐FINANCE DISSONANCE

How are Asian financial markets interlinked and how are they linked to markets in developed countries? What is the main driver of fluctuations in Asian financial markets as well as real economic activity? To answer these questions, we estimate the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz and gauge the degree of interaction in both financial markets and real economic activity among Asian economies. We first show that the degree of the international spillover in stock markets is uniform, irrespective of the groups of countries concerned, such as the G3 and ASEAN4. This suggests the importance of global common shocks in stock markets. We then discuss the macro‐finance dissonance. In stock and bond markets, the United States has been the main driver of fluctuations. However, China has emerged as an important source of fluctuations in real economic activity.     

The Role of a Firm’s Net Cash Payouts in Leland’s (1994) Model

We study the effects of introducing payouts on corporate debt and optimal capital structure in a structural credit risk model à la Leland (1994) . We find that increasing the payout parameter not only affects the endogenous bankruptcy level, which is decreased, but modifies the magnitude of a change on the endogenous failure level as a consequence of an increase in risk‐free rate, corporate tax rate, riskiness of the firm and coupon payments. This simple analytical framework is able to capture realistic insights about optimal leverage, spreads and default probabilities more in line with historical norms (if compared to Leland’s results) and closer to predictions obtained through more sophisticated models.     

Do financial distress and liquidity crises affect value and size premiums?

This study investigates the impact of liquidity crises on the relationship between stock (value and size) premiums and default risk in the US market. It first examines whether financial distress can explain value and size premiums, and then, subsequently, aims to determine whether liquidity crises increase the risk of value and size premium investment strategies. The study employs a time-varying approach and a sample of US stock returns for the period between January 1982 and March 2011, a period which includes the current liquidity crisis, so as to examine the relationship between default risk, liquidity crises and value and size premiums. The findings indicate that the default premium has explanatory power for value and size premiums, which affect firms with different characteristics. We also find that liquidity crises may actually increase the risks related to size and value premium strategies.     

UNPREPARED FOR FINANCIAL SHOCKS: EMERGENCY SAVINGS AND CREDIT CARD DEBT

We measure readiness to face emergency expenses using data from a representative survey of U.S. consumers. Our main findings are as follows: (1) there is substantial heterogeneity in financial readiness, with lowest‐income, least‐educated, unemployed, and Black consumers most likely to have $0 saved for emergency expenses; (2) the amount of emergency savings is correlated with payment choice: Less financially prepared individuals use cash more and credit cards less, compared to those with higher emergency savings; (3) while people with low emergency savings rely more on cash than credit cards, they revolve more debt, and so a financial shock is costlier for them; (4) changes in income from one year to the next do not appear to affect the likelihood of revolving on credit cards or increase the amount borrowed, although the data were collected before the COVID‐19 pandemic. For those with little or no savings and already financially vulnerable, even a temporary financial shock—an unexpected negative income shock (such as a layoff or a short‐term government shutdown) or an unexpected expenditure (such as a medical expense or a car repair)—could have severe financial consequences, exacerbated by the high cost of borrowing on credit cards. (JEL D12, D14, D15, E21)     

The brighter side of being socially responsible: CSR ratings and financial distress among Chinese state and non-state owned firms

We examine the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) quality ratings on the financial distress levels of Chinese enterprises by using the previously unexplored new China-specific Altman ‘Z_China Score’ in the context of CSR and data from 749 firms over the 2009–2014 period. First, we find that CSR quality ratings significantly reduce Chinese firms’ distress levels. Second, we find that the ability of CSR to reduce distress levels in non-state-owned Chinese firms is higher than state-owned ones. Finally, we find similar results when we divide the data into high-low CSR ratings and levels of distress. Our results are robust to potential endogeneities.     

Asymmetric Information and the Russian Individual Savings Market

The article considers the influence of informational imperfections on the performance of the Russian financial market. The focus is on the individual savings market, which exhibits inefficiencies, including those associated with the market power of a dominant agent—Sberbank. Reinforcement of Sberbank's dominance on the market in the period 1994‐98 (before the August default combined with financial crisis) is explained as a consequence of asymmetric information about the probability of bankruptcy of a new bank. Under asymmetric information a new private bank has to provide specific quality signals in order to attract depositors. Two major lines of inquiry are the criteria for choosing forms of savings, including that of a bank in which to deposit money, by Russian citizens, and banks' advertising strategies to confirm the factual risk of default. Within the conceptual framework of a game with separating equilibrium, we analyse the behaviour of the agents on both supply and demand sides in the market. We find that there is evidence of using advertising as a tool of quality signalling at a certain phase of the Russian individual savings market's development.     

Sovereign credit ratings,growth volatility and the global financial crisis

Using monthly data from January 1996 to May 2010 for a panel of 76 developed and emerging economies and adopting an instrumental variable (IV) estimation technique by correcting for both heterogeneity and endogeneity with the generalized two-stage least squares (G2SLS, EC2SLS) procedure method suggested by Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar (1987) and Baltagi and Li (1995), this article provides empirical evidence that volatility of per capita GDP growth is reduced when there are positive changes in credit ratings; in other words when sovereign credit risk improves. To deal with potential simultaneity between sovereign credit ratings and output volatility, a system (3SLS) approach is undertaken, and our findings remain robust. By weakening the volatility dampening effects of ratings changes, it is found that the global financial crisis (GFC) has enhanced macroeconomic volatility. One of the channels via which sovereign rating changes affect growth volatility is the financial markets’ repricing of sovereign default risk that is reflected in sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and its volatility.