利率效果区域异质性、收入跨区 影响与房价溢出效应*

本文首先构建了理论分析框架,解释了中国不同城市间房价溢出效应、收入对房价的跨区影响,以及利率调整对不同城市房价的区域异质性影响。本文利用GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证,结果显示北京等一线城市的房价波动对其他城市具有较大的溢出性,而中西部城市的房价溢出性则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价波动不仅受本城市人均收入变动的影响,还在很大程度上受其他城市收入变动的影响,而中西部城市的房价则主要受本城市收入变动的影响。利率变动对一线城市和东部城市的房价影响则较大,而对中西部城市的房价影响有限。本文结论具有明确的政策含义,比如政府应通过稳定一线城市房价以达到稳定全国房价的目的,促进公共产品均等化,实行地区差异化的房地产政策等。通过利率调整来调控房价也是一个可行的政策选项。     

CROSS‐COUNTRY EVIDENCE OF CORRUPTION SPILLOVERS TO FORMAL AND INFORMAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Using cross‐country data this paper examines the spillovers of corruption to formal and informal entrepreneurship in neighboring countries. Whereas research has shown that entrepreneurs move underground to escape corruption, we argue that entrepreneurs may also seek refuge in neighboring countries. Indeed, the empirical results show that in response to a ceteris paribus increase in corruption in neighboring countries formal entrepreneurship increases in the home country with no effect on informal entrepreneurship. This is consistent with entrepreneurs circumventing corrupt public officials by immigrating to countries with presumably less corruption. These results withstand a battery of robustness checks. (JEL D73, L26)     

R&D,TECHNOLOGY SPILLOVERS AND STOCK PRICES†

Abstract. Theories of endogenous growth suggest that technological progress is driven by firms’ own R&D effort and knowledge spillovers. Using panel data for US firms over the period from 1990 to 1999 this paper tests the influence on stock prices of technological spillovers through firms’ purchase of intermediate products from other firms. The empirical results show that stock prices are significantly positively affected by knowledge spillovers through the input of intermediate products.     

R&D SPILLOVERS TO AGRICULTURE: MEASUREMENT AND APPLICATION

This paper documents research and development (R7amp;D) spillovers between nations and between industries, discussing some theoretical and measurement issues. A new technique makes patent data more practical for economic uses, allowing analysis of the industries of manufacture and sectors of use for inventions. New technology introduced for use in the agricultural and food processing sectors in 14 less developed and newly industrialized nations is traced, comparing the regional and industrial sources of these inventions across time. An application shows that both international and interindustrial spillovers add to agricultural total factor productivity, and distinguishes between the direct and indirect effects of spillovers from public and private, domestic and foreign sources. ( JEL C67, 031, 047, Q16)     

MIGRATION AND AGGLOMERATION WITH KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS*

In this paper, a Grossman–Helpman–Romer‐type endogenous growth model is developed that incorporates two regions and mobile workers. While the linkage between final goods firms and intermediate goods firms is strong, the linkage between innovation activities and manufacturing activities is weak in our paper. It is possible for the economy to reach either full agglomeration, partial agglomeration, or segmented agglomeration. We find that mobile workers acquire the highest welfare under full agglomeration. However, under segmented agglomeration, the welfare of skilled workers is not necessarily the lowest.     

NONLINEAR INCOME TAXATION AND MATCHING GRANTS IN A FEDERATION WITH DECENTRALIZED IN‐KIND TRANSFERS*

We extend to a fiscal federalism setting the literature on redistributive in‐kind transfers in the presence of nonlinear income taxation. Local governments have a cost advantage, motivating decentralization of the in‐kind transfer. The cost structure varies across regions, and the central government cannot observe which region is which. We show that decentralized in‐kind transfers can, in this setting, be an even more important instrument for relaxing self‐selection constraints, thus, helping redistribution, than in single‐government models. We characterize the optimal marginal tax rates and matching grants. The grants have a very different structure than the one derived in earlier studies.     

THE WELFARE GAINS OF AGE‐RELATED OPTIMAL INCOME TAXATION

Using an overlapping generations model with skill uncertainty and private savings, we quantify the gains of age‐dependent labor income taxation. The total steady‐state welfare gain of switching from age‐independent to age‐dependent nonlinear taxation varies between 2.4% and 4% of GDP. Part of the gain descends from relaxing incentive–compatibility constraints and part is due to capital‐accumulation effects. The welfare gain is of about the same magnitude as that which can be achieved by moving from linear to nonlinear income taxation. Finally, the welfare loss from tax‐exempting interest income is negligible under an optimal age‐dependent labor income tax.     

DYNAMIC ENTRY WITH DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDE SPILLOVERS

Supply side spillovers have been used to explain firms' entry behavior in the pharmaceutical industry. In contrast, demand side spillovers have received less attention. This paper identifies supply and demand spillovers using a dynamic model of strategic interaction. The results indicate that demand side spillovers are more significant than the supply side spillovers to generic drug firms, and the demand side spillovers increase a firm's market share by 3%–4% on average in subsequent market entry. In addition, with supply side spillovers alone, lowering entry barriers can increase future entry rates, while in the case of demand side spillovers, lowering entry barriers will have the opposite effect. (JEL L110, L130, D220)     

HOUSEHOLD ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO EXPENDITURES IN TURKEY: A SAMPLE‐SELECTION SYSTEM APPROACH

Household characteristics variables are used to quantify alcohol and tobacco participation and spending level decisions for households in Turkey using a sample‐selection system. Statistical tests support separate analyses for urban and rural households and joint estimation of the equation system to ameliorate biases and improve statistical efficiency of estimates. Household characteristics play important roles in determining binary consumption decisions and levels of spending on tobacco but play less definitive roles in alcohol spending, for both urban and rural households. Differences are found in consumption behaviors between the two types of households. (JEL C24, D12, I18)     

US PATENT CITATIONS DATA AND INDUSTRIAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS

The aim of this paper is to empirically evaluate the US interindustry knowledge spillover using the NBER patents data file (1963–1999). Reputing the patent backward citations as a good proxy of the patent's knowledge spillover, we proceed by building a time series to each US manufacturing industry patent citations and their lags. Then, we generate the time series of the external and the internal knowledge flow indices, showing that traditional sectors are more technology-dependent from the others than the new one. Here, in the spirit of Pavitt [Pavitt, Research Policy 13, 343–73, 1984]. We derive a new taxonomy of innovation focusing on the ideas instead of the goods production in order to obtain the innovation linkage and trajectories. Once we determined that each sector's most cited patents are typically belong to the ‘new’ sectors, we evaluate the high- and low-tech sectors innovation effect on the whole economy innovation process. Confirming that the high-tech sectors, and its R&D expenditures, are the most important, we conclude that it is the giant's shoulders, substance of the whole economy.     

INTEREST AND INFLATION ACCOUNTING

This paper analyses the treatments proposed by Chapter XIX (Annex B) of the 1993 SNA and the manual Inflation Accounting published by the OECD (Peter Hill) as alternatives to the traditional recording of nominal interest. Real interest and interest prime (annex B) are relevant for different purposes. Their amounts are not the same to the extent that actual compensation and full required compensation for inflation differ. The recording of negative real interest is not compatible with the exclusion of holding gains/losses from the SNA current accounts. The accounting treatments in Inflation Accounting (capital transfers, additional lending/borrowing, no nominal holding gains/losses) and Annex B (nominal holding gains/losses, no capital transfers, no new lending/borrowing) are contrasted.     

DOWNSTREAM R&D RIVALRY WITH SPILLOVERS AND DISCRIMINATORY INPUT PRICING

This paper examines how discriminatory input pricing by the upstream monopolist affects the R&D choices of downstream duopolists in the presence of R&D spillovers. We show that the monopoly supplier can benefit from a precommitment to uniform pricing because under uniform pricing the downstream firms invest more in R&D, leading to larger output and thus benefiting the supplier. When R&D spillovers are sufficiently large, the downstream firms are also better off under uniform pricing. Moreover, social welfare is always higher under uniform pricing.     

INCENTIVE AND INSURANCE EFFECTS OF INCOME TAXATION

Tax distortions cause a trade‐off between efficiency and equity. However, taxes not only affect incentives; they also provide implicit insurance, and this may critically affect the efficiency–equity relationship. For a standard labour supply problem it is shown that the insurance effect mutes the sensitivity of labour supply to taxes, which tends to reduce tax distortions and lower the marginal costs of public funds. The relation between incentives and insurance and thus efficiency and equity is flattened by the insurance effect and it may even be non‐monotone. However, the optimal utilitarian policy implies that there is always a trade‐off between efficiency and equity on the margin.     

TAXATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEW ZEALAND

Since the Second World War and until recent reforms, New Zealand has suffered from a low rate of economic growth and a high level of taxation. This paper models the relationship between taxation and economic growth and estimates the "optimal"or "growth-maximizing" tax rate. It is found to be about half of the actual tax rate. The marginal cost of taxation in New Zealand is S2.64 for each extra dollar of taxes collected.