The deviations from interest rate parity along the term structure of forward exchange rates

Zusammenfassung Die Abweichungen der Terminkurse verschiedener Fristen von der Zinsparit?t. — Der Zweck dieses Aufsatzes besteht darin, die Bedeutung der Zinsarbitrage zu betonen und aufzuzeigen, wie eng die Zinsstruktur verschiedener L?nder über die Zinsparit?t miteinander verbunden ist. Es wurde versucht, für verschiedene Fristen das Verhalten der Zinsparit?t zwischen den nationalen Geldmarkts?tzen der Vereinigten Staaten und dem Vereinigten K?nigreich beziehungsweise der Bundesrepublik Deutschland zu analysieren, da es weitgehend anerkannt ist, daΒ die Zinsparit?t auf den Euro-W?hrungsm?rkten Gültigkeit hat. Die Ergebnisse der empirischen Untersuchung zeigen, daΒ die nationalen Geldmarkts?tze verschiedener Fristen nicht homogen durch die Zinsparit?t verbunden sein dürften. Im Gegenteil, die Tatsache, daΒ die Spekulanten im Fall des Pfund Sterling den kurzfristigen Titeln und im Fall der D-Mark den langfristigen Titeln den Vorzug gaben, deutet darauf hin, daΒ die auf den Pfund-Dollar-Kurs gerichteten Erwartungen in der Untersuchungsperiode st?rker schwankten.

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Résumé Les déviations de la parité de taux d’intérét le long de la structure de terme des taux de change à terme. — Le but de cet article est de souligner l’importance de l’arbitrage d’intérêt qui tend à lier les structures nationales de terme des taux d’intérêt. Il est essayé de tester la conduite de la parité de taux d’intérêt (PTI) le long de la structure de terme sur les marchés monétaires nationaux des Etats Unis, du Royaume Uni et de l’Allemagne car il y a un accord général que la PTI existe sur le marché des euro-monnaies. Les résultats de l’investigation empirique indiquent que les structures nationales de terme des taux sur le marché monétaire ne pouvaient pas être homogènement liées par la PTI. En contraste, un habitat probablement préféré par les spéculateurs dans les maturités basses en cas du sterling et un habitat à long terme par les spéculateurs du D-Mark suggèrent une variabilité plus grande des expectatives de taux de change sterling-dollar dans la période considérée.

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Resumen Las desviaciones de las tasas de interés de paridad a lo largo de una estructura de términos para las tasas de cambio a futuro. — El propósito de este artículo es recalcar la importancia de la actividad de arbitraje de interés, particularmente como el medio por el cual las estructuras nacionales de términos de tasas de interés se relacionan entre ellas. Se ha hecho un intento para probar el comportamiento de la tasa de interés de paridad (TIP) a lo largo de la estructura de términos de las tasas de interés del mercado monetario nacional de EEUU y el Reino Unido; y de EEUU y Alemania Federal, ya que es ampliamente reconocido que la TIP tiene validez para el mercado de monedas europeas. Los resultados de la investigación empírica indican que las estructuras de términos nacionales de las tasas de mercados monetarios pueden no estar ligadas homogéneamente a la TIP. En contraste, un entorno probablemente preferido por los especuladores en vencimientos de corto plazo en el caso de la libra esterlina, y el entorno de largo plazo de especuladores del marco alemán, sugieren una mayor volatilidad de las expectativas del tipo de cambio libra esterlina/dólar en el periodo considerado.

     

Options,premium contracts,and the EOE

Summary The article examines the development of options trading in Amsterdam from the seventeenth century to the present time. It shows how the market for traditional options, or premium contracts, was restricted by a number of limitations and how a new form of option — the exchange traded option, and a new options market — the European Options Exchange (E.O.E.), were introduced to overcome these limitations. It examines the first two years of operation of the E.O.E., analyzes some of the problems faced by the E.O.E., and looks at the future development of this new market.     

Exchange rate volatility and its impact on the transaction costs of covered interest rate parity

This paper provides empirical evidence on the linkage between foreign exchange market volatility and daily 90-day covered interest rate parity (CIP) conditions of the three major exchange rates against the US dollar (US$). Markov regime shifting models were utilized to generate time series of volatility regime probabilities and these were used to explain the first and second moments of the daily deviations from and the transaction cost bands around the covered parity conditions. We find a significant positive relationship between the deviations and the regime probabilities, indicating an increasing probability of higher volatility state being associated with rising deviations (both first and second moments) from the parity condition. Similar positive relationship is found for the transaction bands. Rising (falling) probabilities of high (low) volatility regimes increased the first and second moments of the bands. Furthermore, we find a higher volatility state combined with a US$ depreciation is associated with significantly higher volatility in the daily deviations than an appreciation. Also, US$ depreciation is associated with widening transaction bands. This suggests that the level of market uncertainty was higher when the US$ was depreciating.     

Uncovered interest rate parity and analysis of monetary convergence of potential EMU accession countries

This paper analyzes deviations from uncovered interest rate parity which are interpreted as indicator of the substitutability of currencies. Backward recursive statistical tests and error correction models are applied to study the co-movement of interest rates, and rolling regressions are used to study size and volatility of country specific risk premiums. In accordance to their degree of monetary integration with the Euro area, new EU members and accession countries are divided into three groups. Estonia and Lithuania seem to exhibit the highest degree of monetary integration with the Euro area.I thank Carsten Trenkler, Jürgen Wolters and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The paper has also benefited from discussions with participants of the joint econometrics seminar of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin and Freie Universität Berlin and of the Econometric Society European Meeting 2004 in Madrid. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 373, TP C3) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test

Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity in the EU: Evidence from a Panel-Data Unit Root Test. - This paper examines whether the abolition of the remaining capital controls in the EU during 1990 has facilitated the achievement of onshore covered interest parity with respect to Germany. We test for unit roots in covered interest differentials. However, we employ the new methodology of pooling our data and performing a unit root test based on a panel data set. Our results suggest that the period characterized by the absence of capital controls has not facilitated the achievement of covered interest parity. Indeed, evidence in favour of covered interest parity is strongest for the period preceding 1990.     

Strong sterling pound and weak European currencies in the crises: Evidence from covered interest parity of secured rates

In the post Lehman period, the interest rate of the US dollar became low on the forward contract because of“flight to quality” to the international currency. However, in the Euro crisis, that of the Sterling pound became equally low, while the other European currencies such as the Danish kroner increased its their interest rate. By using secured rates, the following analysis examines why the Sterling pound and the Danish kroner showed asymmetric features in deviations from the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. The regression results suggest that there was a structural break in the determinants of the deviations across the European currencies in the two crises. Currency-specific money market risk was critical in explaining the deviations in the global financial crisis (GFC), while EU bank credit risk and global market risk were useful in explaining the deviations in the Euro crisis. In particular, EU bank credit risk and global market risk had asymmetric effect on the deviations. The asymmetry explains contrasted features between the Sterling pound and the Danish kroner.     

Long-term evolution of the firm value and behavior of business groups: Korean chaebols between weak premium,strong discount,and strong premium

This paper analyzes the long-term evolution of the costs and benefits associated with chaebols or diversified business groups in Korea. Chaebol-affiliated firms in Korea have experienced dramatic changes in their costs and benefits along three time periods (1984–1988, 1990–1995, and 2001–2005). They did not suffer a value loss relative to non-affiliated firms in the 1980s, but did so in the 1990s. In the post-crisis period, however, they began to show value gains.To identify the causes of these changes, we examine if chaebol firms prioritize profit stability over profit maximization, overinvest in low-return businesses, cross-subsidize the low-performing affiliates of their group, and possess greater debt capacity, consequently enjoying lower tax burdens. We discover that in the 1980s, chaebol firms generally enjoyed various perks, such as tax breaks, but shied away from excessive investment activities. In the 1990s, their performance worsened because of substantial over-investment, despite several advantages. However, after massive restructuring and sorting out following the 1997 Asian financial crisis, chaebols emerged as very profitable firms correcting over-investment despite the absence of tax perks and debt-carrying advantages.     

Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach

Do interest rate differentials smoothly mirror the changes in the exchange rate between a small open economy and a large emerging market economy? The literature provides conflicting views on the validity of the uncovered interest parity condition (UIP), including its size and factors influencing the risk premium. We examine the validity of the UIP condition between Nepal and India using time-series data covering the period 1989 – 2019. A state space modelling approach based on the Kalman filter analysis is applied to simulate the risk premium. We find that the UIP condition does not hold for the Nepalese Rupee. A time-varying persistent negative risk premium that dominantly explains interest rate differentials is, instead, found. These findings imply that Nepalese residents prefer to hold foreign assets and continually expect future devaluations of the domestic currency. These present obstacles to developing domestic financial markets and the implementation of a market oriented monetary policy.     

Trade,FDI, migration,and the place premium: Mexico and the United States

Large wage differences between countries (“place premiums”) are well documented. Theory suggests that factor price convergence should follow increased migration, capital flows, and commercial integration. All three have increased between the United States and Mexico over the last 25 years. This paper evaluates the degree of wage convergence between these countries during the period 1988 and 2011. We match survey and census data from Mexico and the United States to estimate the change in wage differentials for observationally identical workers over time. We find very little evidence of convergence. What evidence we do find is most likely due to factors unrelated to US–Mexico integration. While migration, trade, and FDI may reduce the US–Mexico wage differential, these effects are small when compared to the overall wage gap.     

加息、利率市场化与金融脆弱性研究

一、央行加息与我国的利率市场化 2004年10月29日，中国人民银行宣布上调金融机构存贷款基准利率并放宽人民币贷款利率浮动区间和允许人民币存款利率下浮。金融机构年期存贷款基准利率各上调0.27个百分点，其他各档次存、贷款利率也相应调整，中长期上调幅度大于短期。     

The futures premium and rice market efficiency in prewar Japan

This article studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non‐Bayesian time‐varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in the two major rice markets occurred. We also examine how government interventions affected the rice markets in Japan, which colonized Taiwan and Korea before the Second World War, and argue that the function of rice futures markets crucially depended on the differences in the structure of rice spot markets. Initially the increased volume of imported rice of a different variety from domestic rice disrupted the rice futures markets. Then, government intervention in the rice futures markets failed to improve the disruption. Changes in colonial rice cropping successfully mitigated the disruption, and colonial rice was promoted in order to unify the different varieties of inland and colonial rice.     

J-liquidity measure: The term structure of the liquidity premium in Japan

We interpret the yield spread between Japanese government-guaranteed bonds and government bonds as market liquidity, which we refer to as the J-liquidity measure. Our model-free approach not only provides the term structure of the liquidity premium, but also captures the impact of illiquidity events and the illiquidity condition of the Japanese fixed-income market. We empirically show that the long-term factor of the liquidity premium curve is driven by the volatility of the short-term rate. The liquidity measure is provided publicly for future applications.     

实施跨越式发展战略

跨越式发展是指在一定历史条件，落后者对先行者走过的某一发展阶段的超常规赶超行为。跨越式发展是我们当前新的政治经济形势下的必然选择。跨越式发展有其基本内涵和重要意义。实施跨越式发展的战略策略：观念创新，抢抓机遇，发挥优势，人才战略，振奋精神。     

The excess burden of the tax and social premium system for Dutch married women

Summary The excess burden of a tax is the diminution of utility above that which would have occurred had the tax been collected as a lump sum. Computing the excess burden for the 1983 and 1985 Dutch tax and social premium system enables a partial welfare evaluation of the recent changes in the system, the so-called Tweeverdienersmaatregelen. Based on the equivalent and compensating variation, the excess burden as a percentage of the taxes and social premiums for the 1983 and 1985 system are valued at 27010 and 84010, and 37010 and 58010 respectively. This result indicates that, welfare-theoretically, the old system seems preferable to the new one.The author wishes to thank Hans Doodeman, Paul Renaud and Jacques Siegers for their critical remarks on an earlier version of this article.     

Forward rate,spot rate and risk premium: An empirical analysis

Zusammenfassung Terminkurs, Kassakurs und Risikopr?mie. -In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Verfahren entwickelt, um die Risikopr?mie zu messen, von der angenommen wird, da? sie in direkter Beziehung zum Swapsatz steht, also der Differenz zwischen Kassa-und Terminkurs. Die Erfahrung zeigt, da? die Risikopr?mie im Laufe der Zeit schwankt, weil sich der Swapsatz und/oder die Sch?tzkoeffizienten ver?ndern. Wenn das Modell die Risikopr?mie einbezieht, sagt es die Wechselkurse besser voraus, als wenn es allein die Terminkurse enth?lt. Die Testergebnisse zeigen, da? die allgemeine Markteffizienz-Hypothese (das Risikopr?mien-Modell) der einfachen Markteffizienz-Hypothese überlegen ist, wenn es darum geht, die künftigen Kassakurse vorauszusch?tzen. Au?erdem stellt sich heraus, da? die “andom walk”pothese nicht besser ist als das Risikopr?mienmodell.

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Résumé Cours à terme, cours au comptant et prime de risque. -Cet article développe une méthode de mesurer la prime de risque sous la supposition qu’il y a une relation directe entre cette prime et la prime à terme, c’est-à-dire la différence entre cours à terme et cours au comptant. L’évidence montre que la prime de risque varie sur temps parce que la prime à terme et/ou des coefficients estimés changent. L’inclusion de la prime de risque en cas d’un pronostic des taux de change surpasse le modèle si seul le cours à terme est utilisé. Les résultats du test démontrent que l’hypothèse générale d’efficience de marché (modèle de la prime de risque) est supérieure à l’hypothèse simple d’efficience de marché si l’on fait un pronostic des taux au comptant. De plus, l’hypothèse de ?random walk? ne produit pas des meilleurs résultats que le modèle de prime de risque.

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Resumen Tasa a término, tasa spot y sobretasa por riesgo. -En este trabajo se desarrolla un esquema para medir la sobretasa por riesgo, la cual se supone estar relacionada directamente con la tasa a término. La evidencia empirica demuestra que la sobretasa por riesgo varía en el tiempo debido a una sobretasa a término variable, a coeficientes estimados no constantes o a ambos factores. La inclusión de la sobretasa por riesgo en la predicción de tasas de cambio supera los resultados obtenidos con un modelo de tasas de cambio a término solamente. Los resultados del test indican que la hipótesis general de mercados eficientes (modelo con sobratasa por riesgo) es superior a la hipótesis simple de mercados eficientes en la predicción de tasas spot futuras. Además, la hipótesis del ?random walk? no résulta mejor que la de la sobretasa por riesgo.