技术创新系统的功能分析框架

近年来,以特定技术作为分析出发点的技术创新系统（TIS）思路被提出。该思路强调对创新系统运行及其目标实现具有重大作用的活动（activities）或过程（processes）,并称之为创新系统功能。系统功能之间既可以形成良性循环,加速系统的成长;也可能由于某个功能的缺失或不足而出现恶性循环,阻碍系统的发展,甚至使之崩溃。良性循环和恶性循环在一定的条件下会相互转化。在介绍和分析系统功能组合以及功能之间互动机制的基础上,提供了一个评估技术创新系统功能运行的分析框架,以期从功能的角度识别导致系统失灵的原因,为政策制定者提供干预目标。     

A New Approach to Unidimensional Poverty Analysis: Application to the Tunisian Case

Fuzzy conceptualization of privation has been a step closer to more realistic handling of poverty. However, fuzzy approaches to poverty are still grounded on parametric axioms. Moreover, construction of poverty lines within these approaches still relies on ad‐hoc methods. In this paper, we advance instead a fuzzy procedure based on the non‐parametric bootstrap method, allowing us to depict fuzzy unidimensional privation states with boundaries drawn spontaneously from data. Fuzzy non‐parametric measures of privation within each state as well as a collective fuzzy non‐parametric index of poverty are derived, along with their corresponding confidence intervals. The new approach is applied to the analysis of poverty in Tunisia in 2005.     

A New Approach to Currency Depreciation

Currency depreciation has been studied conventionally in terms of three hypotheses—the elasticities approach, the monetary approach and the absorption approach. In this paper we offer another hypothesis called the price approach, wherein the balance of payment disequilibrium results from an inappropriate price level. Specifically, a country has a trade surplus if the equilibrium price level is below that compatible with balanced trade; by contrast, it has a trade deficit if the price level is above that compatible with balanced trade. We illustrate the price approach with the experience of currency devaluations that have occurred in emerging markets since 1997.     

超额需求不连续时一般均衡分析的新路径

传统的证明一般均衡存在性的方法都必须以连续的超额需求函数为条件。本文提供一种新方法突破这一局限。一般均衡分析中的个人择优问题是一个非线性规划问题,本文用动态规划方法来处理这一非线性规划问题,从而就克服了不连续超额需求函数带来的困难。运用这一新方法,本文证明了超额需求函数不连续时的存在性。     

Identifying Laffer Bounds: A Sufficient‐Statistics Approach with an Application to Germany

We derive a simple sufficient‐statistics test for whether a nonlinear tax‐transfer system is second‐best Pareto efficient. If it is not, then it is beyond the top of the Laffer curve and there exists a tax cut that is self‐financing. The test depends on the income distribution, extensive and intensive labor supply elasticities, and income effect parameters. A tax‐transfer system is likely to be inefficient if marginal tax rates are quickly falling in income. We apply this test to the German tax‐transfer system, and we find that the structure of effective marginal tax rates is likely to be inefficient in the region where transfers are phased out.     

Estimating an Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approach with Applications to India and Sri Lanka

Owing to the unavailability of time‐series data on the domestic market‐clearing price of imports, the estimation of notional price and income elasticities of aggregate import demand remains a daunting task for a large number of developing countries. This paper develops a structural econometric model of a two‐goods representative agent economy that incorporates a binding foreign exchange constraint at the administered prices of imports. A theoretically consistent parameterization of the “virtual relative price” of imports circumvents the data problem, and thus enables the estimation of income and price responses by cointegration approach. The price and income elasticity estimates for India and Sri Lanka, in contrast to the extant literature, have correct signs, high statistical significance, and plausible magnitudes.     

Second-Best Pollution Taxes: an Analytical Framework and Some New Results

This paper compares the second-best optimal tax on polluting consumption goods with the Pigovian tax, which would internalize marginal environmental damage at a second-best optimum. It is shown that the relationship between the optimal tax on polluting consumption and the Pigovian tax is determined by the substitutability between labour and polluting consumption or clean and polluting consumption, depending on whether a wage tax system or a commodity tax system is being considered. The key factor determining the relationship between the two taxes is gross substitutability between the two taxed goods. As long as there is gross substitutability, the optimal dirt tax exceeds the Pigovian tax. The opposite can occur if and only if the two goods are gross complements.     

Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care

Both the lack of market data and the need to adopt a more holistic approach in the valuation of non‐market activities within health care have pointed towards the use of contingent valuation (CV) methods. However, to date, few studies have employed such techniques to value informal care, despite its provision being an important public policy question. We propose an analytical framework that through the use of random parameters models and respondents' certainty scales can incorporate both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in the CV modelling. This is the first CV study of informal care for Scotland (UK) and a £7.68 per hour value is estimated.     

就业替代与劳动力流动:一个新的分析框架

从 2 0 0 0年人口普查取得的资料看 ,2 0世纪 90年代我国中部出现连片就业萎缩地区 ,劳动力持续外流。与中部地区就业紧缩形成鲜明反差的是沿海地区工业部门就业规模的迅速扩展。在经济全球化的背景下 ,随着我国对外开放程度不断加深、外商直接投资部门不断扩展 ,沿海地区的区位优势得到充分体现 ,以劳动密集产业和高新技术产业为主的制造业发展迅速 ,这些地区正在以一种反梯度模式进行着其特殊的“再工业化”过程 ,并形成对内地国有部门和传统工业地区的刚性就业替代 ,地区差距在就业机会方面的表现十分突出。非农就业机会在地区间的转移、替代和重新分配 ,是解释我国转型时期劳动力跨地区流动的一个新的分析框架。     

Modelling energy and labour linkages: A CGE approach with an application to Iran

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.     

通往想象的世界--读《庄子》

本文从对想象的分析入手,提出解读<庄子>的另一种方案.问题的讨论依次为一、通过几部经典的比较,为<庄子>的体裁定位;二、把<庄子>文章"章法散漫"的现象,同想象的逻辑联系起来;三、对<庄子>故事中的人物角色进行类型分析;四、揭示对另外的生活方式的想象同建构世界的大道理的对立;五、附论相关的政治与哲学问题.作者期待,<庄子>所召唤的想象力,会阻止我们在庸常生活中精神的沉沦.     

低碳经济:管理生态系统

从目标、成本、增长模式等多个角度对低碳经济的核心要义进行分析,指出低碳经济本质上是对生态系统的全新管理模式,也是新一轮全球化革命的起点。文章对2℃目标的形成、贴现成本与行动成本、可控增长模型等关键概念进行了创新性解读,阐述了关于低碳经济的几个关键问题。     

促进新能源技术的开发利用

新能源是重要的替代能源。由于大部分新能源’的技术尚不成熟,处于产业化初期或研究开发阶段,技术进步是促进新能源发展的重要动力。根据国际经验,政府在新能源技术研究开发、示范和推广中发挥着重要作用,科学的组织实施管理体系对推动新能源技术发展与利用具有积极作用。为了促进新能源技术发展和应用,我们不仅要加大新能源技术开发的投入,还要改进新能源技术开发利用的规划与组织实施体系,提高研究开发投入的效率。     

社会网络的四种功能框架及其测量

通过对文献的系统归纳,本文将社会网络的主要功能归纳为四种,信息获取、互惠合作、结构支持和资源获取。这样的分类框架避免了之前研究中仅测量企业拥有的社会网络而忽视企业动用的社会网络的问题。本文开发了测量社会网络四种功能的量表,并应用验证性因子分析验证了量表的效度。然后在Miles和Snow战略选择框架下,通过305个样本对本文的假设进行了实证验证。     

Estimating Savings and Growth Functions in Developing Economies: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

There is a two-way influence between the savings rate on the one hand and some of its determinants on the other (i.e. a problem of simultaneity exists). This study specifies a general production function to generate a growth rate function, and estimates savings and growth equations simultaneously. A Hausman specification test examines the correct system specification, and determines whether 2SLS or 3SLS is the appropriate estimation technique. The results show that a simultaneous equations model is a better estimation technique (2SLS or 3SLS) than a single equation system (OLS), and that the full-information method (3SLS) provides better estimates than a limited-information method (2SLS). [C30]     

发展新型工业化的关键:技术创新路径的选择、优化与升级

党的十六大以来所确立的以“科技含量高、经济效益好、资源消耗低、环境污染少、人力资源优”为主要特征的新型工业化发展道路是解决“中国发展观难题”的一条必经之路.而从新型工业化的基本特征出发,技术落后是沿着新型工业化模式发展所面临的关键障碍.对于中国而言,走一条动态的“引进-模仿、学习-再创新-提高R＆D能力-自主创新”之路是切实可行的有效路径,同时,还需要进行有效的制度创新和产业创新,实现对技术创新优化和升级的能动作用.