Fisher’s hypothesis,survey-based expectations and asymmetric adjustments: Empirical evidence from South Africa

Our study re-examines Fisher’s hypothesis for the South African economy in the post-inflation targeting era and presents two empirical novelties over preceding works for the same country. Firstly, we examine Fisher effect by making use of survey-based inflation expectations data for financial analysts, business sector, trade unions and households, hence making our study more disaggregate in nature. Secondly, we examine both short-run and long-run asymmetric cointegration effects in Fisher’s relation using the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model as an econometric framework. For the full quarterly sample of 2002:01 – 2019:04, our study finds interest rates respond more aggressively to falling expectations than rising ones, with a full Fisher effect found for financial analysts, partial effects for households and business, and no effect for trade unions. However, when the data is split into two sub-samples corresponding to pre- and post-financial crisis periods, we observe changing dynamics in which interest rates respond more aggressively to rising inflation, with partial effects being also found for trade unions. Policy recommendations based on our study are offered.

     

Are ‘Albergo Diffuso’ and community-based tourism the answers to community development in South Africa?

Conventional mass tourism shortcomings have facilitated the origin of alternative forms of tourism such as community-based tourism (CBT). Lately, another form of tourism known as ‘Albergo Diffuso’ (AD) has also been mentioned as a possible strategy to revive depressed specific local contexts, such as townships, villages and small towns. This article’s aim is twofold: first to contextualise the concept of AD in the South African milieu and secondly to investigate the possible relationship and role that CBT and AD could have. In this context, specific characteristics and similarities between CBT and AD are explored. The article’s main contribution concerns the exploration of the AD concept as an alternative form of tourism related to local community development. This is the first time that this concept has been presented in a South African context.     

Nuclear power: The family in decolonial perspective and ‘pro-family’ politics in Africa

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the normative construction of ‘family’ in heteronormative ‘nuclear’ terms is infused with power relations, and therefore must not be taken for granted as an analytical category or concept. Not only a site where racialised and patriarchal western notions of sexed and gendered hierarchies have been naturalised and institutionalised, the ‘nuclear family’ model was positioned as a signifier of modernity, civilisation and progress within eurocentric knowledge construction that served colonial interests. This discussion reviews decolonial thinking on the nuclear family, as well as anti-imperialist literature on the colonial history of the nuclear family ideal. These perspectives are brought into conversation with current developments in which the nuclear family model is being reinvigorated by the conservative US-based ‘pro-family’ movement. The ‘family’, it is concluded, is entangled in multiple relations of geo-political power that should be taken into account in research and the production of knowledge around kinship in African contexts.     

When ‘community’ is not enough: Managing common property natural resources in rural South Africa

Common property natural resource management (NRM) informer ‘bantustan’ rural areas can provide important pointers for current and future land reform and local government policy. Using Tyefu Location in the Eastern Cape as a case study, this article outlines three of the constraints that currently fashionable ‘community‐based’ NRM models are likely to face in coordinating the use of common property resources in these areas. These three constraints are first, the entrenched socio‐economic differentiation that results in local people having varied, but generally weak incentives for contributing to collective action resource management. Second, are the high levels of institutional contestation that exist in these areas and third, the fact that the ‘fuzziness’ of existing NRM regimes allows for maximum flexibility in resource use, with the result that most rural (and urban‐based) people are unlikely to support the introduction of more formalised NRM regimes.     

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1885–2008: Evidence from eight countries

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been absent from recent debates about comparative long-run growth owing to the lack of data on aggregate economic performance before 1950. This paper provides estimates of GDP per capita on an annual basis for eight Anglophone African economies for the period since 1885, raising new questions about previous characterizations of the region's economic performance. The new data show that many of these economies had levels of per capita income which were above subsistence by the early twentieth century, on a par with the largest economies in Asia until the 1980s. However, overall improvements in GDP per capita were limited by episodes of negative growth or “shrinking”, the scale and scope of which can be measured through annual data.     

The problem of defining ‘community’: Challenges for the land reform programme in rural South Africa

This article argues that the use of the term ‘community’ in South Africa's land reform programme has both positive and negative effects on the beneficiaries. Effects are positive when they help focus policy on the needs of poor people, but negative when they force conflicting groups together in a manner which results in the rights of a weaker group being trampled on by the actions of a more powerful group. The article briefly reviews different ways of looking at the concept ‘community’, and then analyses in detail a case from the Wild Coast, where a Spatial Development Initiative (SDI) has raised questions about who should benefit from land reform and economic development. It is concluded that a detailed understanding of local reality, even if it takes time to develop, should be seen as essential to both land restitution and the rights enquiry processes which government policy proposes to employ for resolving conflicting and overlapping claims to tenure rights     

From land rights to environmental entitlements: Community discontent in the ‘successful’ Dwesa-Cwebe land claim in South Africa

This paper discusses the inability of successful land claimants to enjoy livelihood benefits from their newly acquired land rights. Based on long-term field observation, interviews and analysis of secondary material, the paper uses a case study of the Dwesa-Cwebe Nature Reserve in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa to explore why it is that an agreement, as part of the land claim settlement, to allow local villagers regulated access to natural resources is not being implemented. The paper draws from the environmental entitlements framework to argue that full land rights that could allow livelihood benefits to be enjoyed are restricted by ineffective and conflicting institutional arrangements, such as the Land Trust, the Communal Property Association and traditional authorities. The paper calls for the empowerment of institutions to deliberately benefit local livelihoods.     

‘Learning by importing’ in global value chains: upgrading and South–South strategies in the Ugandan pharmaceutical industry

Drawing on global value chain analysis, this article discusses the possibilities for upgrading in a domestically oriented import-dependent industry. The pharmaceutical industry in Uganda consists of a large number of importers, nine of which have upgraded into assembly and four a step further into manufacturing. The industry upgrades by a process of ‘learning by importing’. Although not engaged with global buyers, pharmaceutical producers in Uganda are tied into the global pharmaceutical value chain by international linkages with their suppliers, mainly in India, from whom they access technology and intermediates for production. Hence, this industry is based on South–South networks for production of low-value pharmaceutical products. With the globalisation of the pharmaceutical industry, an increasing number of global lead firms are ceasing to manufacture these products. This study illustrates an alternative form of industrialisation and upgrading that has not been adequately considered in the development of the African pharmaceutical industry.     

Deconstructing ‘the foreign’: The limits of citizenship for explaining price competition in the Spaza sector in South Africa

An important component of the informal economy in South Africa, the Spaza sector is portrayed as dominated by foreign nationals who outcompete South African shopkeepers on price. Indeed, this business competition from foreign nationals is a key reason given to explain xenophobia in South Africa. This article sets out to interrogate this widely held assumption. Drawing on evidence from over 1000 Spaza shops from South Africa’s three main cities, the article makes the case that business competitiveness does not correspond with ‘foreign’ or South African identities in a simple way. Firstly, while citizenship or nationality is a factor, it is not captured by the labels of ‘foreign’ versus South African, as there are significant differences by nationality within the ‘foreign’. Secondly, not all foreign nationalities out-compete South Africans on price. Thirdly, place matters too, not only because we find different nationalities in different cities, but also because there are different patterns of price competition by nationality in each place. Lastly, there are product-specific dynamics that impact on price more profoundly than nationality. For example, regardless of nationality, milk is cheaper in Cape Town and bread is cheaper in Johannesburg.     

Small‐family farm types: Examples from Northern Namibia and implications for agrarian reform in South Africa

Small‐farmer types in southern Africa differ significantly in terms of factor‐input patterns and support structures. On peasant family farms (PFF) cash input costs are very low, non‐household labour is sourced largely from communal work groups through kinship ties, and support services needed to sustain production are minimal. By contrast, on commercial family farms (CFF) cash input costs are high, little non‐family labour is used and strong support services are necessary. The first objective of this article is to point out and emphasise the different situations which exist in these two small‐family farm types, based on data from farm studies in Northern Namibia. The second objective is to extract the implications of these differences in relation to development paths under land reform. This is based on experiences of the outcome of land reform in Latin America. It is concluded that the agrarian situation in post‐land reform South Africa will comprise a mix of large‐scale commercial farms and small‐scale farms of both the PFF and CFF types. It will be necessary to recognise the existence of each of these types and their interrelationships, to monitor their development, to understand their different production situations and to cater for their different needs.     

The ‘Triple-alliance’ perspective for new industry creation: Lessons from the flat panel industry in Taiwan

This paper describes how the development of the microelectronics industry in Taiwan has followed an evolutionary path that eventually led to the formation of the ‘Triple-alliance’. The ‘Triple-alliance’ model postulates that a nation's industrialization is fundamentally underpinned by the arrangement of three distinct institutions: state bureaucracy, domestic business groups and multinational corporations. The paper delineates the role of each participating institution in the context of Taiwan's microelectronics industry, and discusses the interaction between domestic and foreign institutions to demonstrate how the alliance facilitates the transfer and absorption of technology. Using the creation of the flat panel display industry in Taiwan as an example, the paper shows that understanding the interactions among these three institutions is essential for uncovering how technology-intensive industries are created in late-industrializing countries. The paper adopts an evolutionary approach in tracing how the web of linkages and alliances among these three institutions has led to the successful creation of Taiwan's technology-intensive flat panel display industry.     

Exporting firms’ factor and product-quality adjustments in response to employment protection legislation: Evidence from China

Employment-protection legislation (EPL) is known to reduce the unemployment risk of workers and employees and implicitly raises the costs of labor as a factor of production, in particular, the adjustment costs for that factor. Using firm-level accounting data and matched transaction-level trade data, the paper documents that firms responded to the inception of a new labor contract law as accepted by the National People's Congress of China in mid-2007 not only by adjusting their labor demand but also in terms of other adjustments: they raised the capital intensity of production and increased the quality of their output. The paper provides evidence that such changes and adjustments were particularly strong for firms in ex ante labor-intensive sectors and for private firms which were less shielded from adverse competitive effects than state-owned ones.     

Do developing countries gain by participating in global value chains? Evidence from India

Review of World Economics - Is it in the interest of a developing country to promote strong local linkages for domestic industries or to participate in global value chains (GVCs) wherein linkages...     

Education and development: The role of non‐formal education,especially in developing countries

Education plays an important role in development, especially in a developing country. To develop the skills and knowledge of the large percentage of the people outside the reach of formal education, and to offer education programmes which can easily adapt and respond to the specific and immediate needs of a developing community, out‐of‐school programmes should be considered.

This article explains how non‐formal education, that is organized and systematic education offered outside the framework of the formal education system, could complement formal education, and should be organized to support integrated, community‐based development Briefly discussed guidelines for the planning of non‐formal education are the horizontal and vertical integration of all activities, extensive community involvement, a self‐help approach, the use of front line workers and the maximum utilization of existing facilities.     

The management of South Africa’s landfills and waste pickers on them: Impacting lives and livelihoods

Effective management of waste and the promotion and management of recycling activities are necessary for sustainable and liveable cities. A key but unrecognised element in promoting recycling is the efforts of waste pickers who make a living from recycling mainline recyclables. This article aims to describe the approaches used on 10 landfills in South Africa to manage waste pickers’ access to recyclables and their daily activities on the landfills. A multiple case study design and cross-case analysis were used in this study. The sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) was used to analyse and explain the data. The results showed that waste management policies and practices directly influence the waste pickers’ access to recyclable waste and their livelihoods. Finally, some inclusionary and exclusionary practices are highlighted that could guide inclusive, participatory and co-productive practices for waste pickers in South Africa towards increased recognition, access, dignity and income.     

Infrastructure in South Africa: Who is to finance and who is to pay?

Against the backdrop of shifting views on the role of government in the provision of infrastructure, this paper distinguishes between the payment for and financing of the South African Government's infrastructure investment programme. The paper argues for a clear distinction between loan financing by the government for macroeconomic considerations and the benchmark approach to the financing of infrastructural projects. It presents a classification system that enables a systematic mapping of all prospective projects, with reference to considerations of efficiency and equity, and uses this system to question the government's financing strategy and identify alternatives. The Gautrain Rapid Rail project is used as a case study to demonstrate these alternatives.     

Public assets and services delivery in South Africa: Is it really a success?

Poverty alleviation remains a pressing concern for South African policy-makers. Implementing effective anti-poverty policies requires a clear understanding of the nature and extent of poverty. The extant literature on South African poverty dynamics shows a decline in the headcount ratio over the first decade of the twenty-first century. However, the prior research largely adopts a narrow money-metric approach, or uses multi-dimensional indices that include welfare indicators based on private assets (e.g. television sets) or those that are provided publicly (e.g. access to water). This paper uses multiple correspondence analysis to measure non-income poverty trends for the period 2005–12. The novelty in this undertaking lies in an attempt to include a measure of the perceived quality of public assets and services to complement the standard indices. This provides some measure of ‘success’ of public service delivery, accounting for both changes in access and quality.