存货质押贷款中银行对借款人的甄别—分离均衡

抵押贷款仅考虑借款人信用风险,存货质押贷款还应考虑质物价格风险。当银行时借款人事前违约概率具有不对称信息时,在DannyBen—shahar抵押贷款模型基础上,综合考虑借款人信用风险和质物价格风险,证明存在高风险借款人选择（高利率、高贷款价值比）合同,低风险借款人选择（低利率、低贷款价值比合同）的唯一分离均衡。     

外部竞争对信号传递有效性的影响:以某高校毕业生就业为例

本文证明随着外部竞争的加剧,低生产能力类型的求职者将以更高的概率模仿高能力类型求职者来传递信号,因而招聘者面对的是大量发出相同信号的求职者。这意味着存在外部竞争时,信号传递本身并没有有效改变求职者和招聘者之间的信息不对称问题。上述理论为我们观察到的现象提供了合理的解释。基于北京某综合性大学经济类学院毕业生就业状况问卷调查的研究结果,为本文的结论提供了证据。本研究表明,信号传递用来解决逆向选择问题的有效性事实上受到市场结构的影响。     

双重信贷担保无法解决中小企业融资难——以新疆生产建设兵团为例北大核心CSSCISSCI

双重信贷担保的制度安排可以降低信贷风险,促成信贷担保协议的达成,但是,信贷担保各方的信息不对称和机会主义行为,必然会致使双重信贷担保无法从根本上解决中小企业融资难。博弈模型分析表明,在信息不对称的条件下,中小企业融资难是银行、担保公司和贷款人之间的博弈结果,信贷发放则是该博弈的均衡解,利率、保费率和贷款人的投资收益率等是影响博弈均衡的重要变量;双重信贷担保虽然可以在一定程度上缓解中小企业融资难,但是,当贷款人的投资收益率低于临界点时,担保公司的抵触行为仍旧会在客观上加剧融资难。     

技术创新投资决策的不对称双头垄断期权博弈分析

文章运用不对称双头垄断期权博弈模型,研究了需求不对称的两个企业在不确定条件下的研发投资决策。研究表明,需求比较优势的大小时企业均衡策略有显著影响．存在三类均衡：抢先均衡、序列均衡和同时投资均衡。均衡的类型取决于企业作为追随者、领先者和同时投资者的相对收益,而需求不对称程度是影响企业收益的重要因素。研究发现,当需求的不时称程度较低时存在明显的先动优势．从而导致抢先均衡;当需求的不对称程度足够大时,低需求冲击的企业没有动力成为领先者,从而产生序列投资均衡,当初始市场冲击大于低需求冲击企业的追随者策略投资临界时,将产生同时投资策略均衡。     

信息不对称视角下的食品安全风险信息交流机制研究——基于参与主体之间的博弈分析

解决食品安全信息不对称的根本途径在于构建完善的食品安全信息交流体系。本文基于参与主体的行为分析,分别构建政府部门与食品企业、食品企业与消费者之间的动态博弈模型,通过对比分析信息不对称与信息对称两种情况下均衡解的变化,说明构建食品安全信息交流的必要性及改善博弈均衡解的具体途径。最后,文章结合我国现有信息交流的壁垒,提出针对性的改进建议。     

员工求职的博弈分析

文章从博弈的角度分析大学生与有经验者的应聘过程,解释大学生就业中的阻力;然后又分析了招聘方与求职方的博弈过程,可以发现,招聘方与求职者博弈的过程存在着因为信息不对称造成的逆向选择.     

电网建设项目内部主体利益博弈与激励机制分析

通过博弈混合策略纳什均衡求解,对电网公司与承包商或监理单位之间的利益博弈关系进行了分析,解释了不确定环境下的多元利益相关者的合作博弈模型的可操作性;针对电网建设项目存在的信息不对称,同时借鉴委托代理理论的激励约束机制基本分析框架,建立了信息不对称条件下的最优激励与监控约束模型,并探讨分析了激励机制与监控约束机制在电网建设项目委托代理关系中的作用。     

我国中小企业间接融资困境的博弈分析

本文从信息不对称以及博弈的角度出发,构造了一个中小企业与金融业在发生信贷关系时的博弈模型,对我国信贷市场上商业银行与企业在申请贷款和偿还贷款时的策略选择和行动方案进行分析.在博弈模型中,首先给出模型的假设条件,然后结合我国实际情况分析博弈均衡的结果,并重点分析各个变量的改变对博弈均衡结果的影响,最后得出一些启发性的结论.     

竞争与垄断两类市场结构下供应商选择的机制设计

供应链中供应商与制造商是典型的交易关系,两者之间存在着委托—代理关系,这就要求设计合理的机制来对供应商进行选择。考虑在制造商之间是相互竞争的条件下,对供应商进行信息甄别和机制设计,并通过信息甄别机制得到唯一的分离均衡;在制造商垄断的条件下,设计在完全信息条件下与不对称信息条件下的最优契约。结果表明,在制造商之间相互竞争的条件下,最优的机制设计就是信息甄别。在制造商垄断的条件下,当信息不对称时,制造商可以设计相应的机制让供应商通过透露真实的能力水平信息找到最优机制;当信息完全时,所有供应商都只能获得保留效用,即零效用。     

对农村信用社高管人员激励与监管的博弈分析

农村信用社资产所有者与其高级管理人员之间关于规避道德风险（隐藏行动）的博弈,实质是高级管理人员激励机制的设计。激励机制要求农村信用社向高级管理人员让渡一部分利润。金融监管机构与农村信用社高级管理人员之间在监管行为上存在静态的非重复博弈,最优的监管概率和违规概率是一种混合策略纳什均衡。只有同时通过激励机制和监管机制,才能有效规避农村信用社高级管理人员的道德风险和违规行为。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上,尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能,资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标,以求真实反映银行经营的成果,有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系,从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.