The Formation of Producers' Price Expectations in Australia*

This paper investigates the formation of price expectations by Australian manufacturing firms. It is shown that the reported expectations are generally consistent with the hypothesis that they are derived as conditional forecasts from the model used by firms in determining their actual price change behaviour. Tests are then undertaken to see whether the expectations are unbiased and efficient forecasts, the cross-section results indicating generally that they are neither, and hence not rational. Alternative time-series tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis, however, suggest that neither hypothesis can be rejected, implying rationality.     

The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia*

This paper analyzes the quantitative price expectations of consumers as obtained from consumer surveys. Price expectations are considered as functions of (i) past rates of inflation (ii) other economic variables, and (iii) consumer sentiment variables. The dominant influence on expectations is the most recent change in the consumer price index. Wage-indexation decisions and changes in the money supply also exert a significant influence on mean expectations. The variability of price expectations across consumers is proportional to the mean level of expectations.     

Price Expectations and the Australian Price Level: 1901–30*

This paper examines the sources of change in Australian prices in the first three decades of this century. It probes the information content of simple ‘money is dominant’ models of inflation and of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and shows that price expectations played a dramatically different role then than in the 1970s.     

The Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Australia*

The aim of this paper is to test the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates in the Australian market for short-term financial assets. The paper finds that the joint hypothesis of the expectations theory and zero (or a constant risk premium) cannot be rejected in the period since the introduction of the tender system for sale of government securities in 1979. The floating of the Australian dollar in 1983 did not alter the findings.     

Rational Expectations and the Defris-Williams Inflationary Expectations Series*

This paper evaluates the Defris-Williams inflationary expectations series as a measure of rational expectations for the period 1973(1) to 1980(2). The results show that the series violates the rationality criterion, being an inefficient and biased predictor of inflation. By constructing an ‘information-augmented’ D-W series, the quantitative importance of omitted information available to consumers at the time of making their forecasts is isolated. The key omitted economic variables are found to be lagged monetary growth and unemployment or an indexation dummy which explains 70 percent of the forecast error of the D-W series. These results suggest that a theoretically constructed expectations series may prove to be a superior measure of market expectations of inflation in Australia.     

理性预期和适应性预期股价模型的比较研究

本文首先介绍了理性预期股价模型和适应性预期股价模型 ,并对两种模型的定价方法和实证分析结果进行了比较 ,得出了较理性预期模型而言 ,适应性预期模型对于成熟股票市场有更强的解释能力 ,结论对我国股市有一定借鉴意义。     

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises*

We estimate monetary policy surprises for European consumers over time, based on monetary policy changes that were unanticipated according to consumers’ stated beliefs. We find that such monetary policy surprises have the opposite impact on inflation expectations from the impact found when assuming that consumers are well informed. Relaxing the latter assumption by focusing on consumers’ stated beliefs, unanticipated increases in the interest rate raise inflation expectations before the 2008 financial crisis. This is consistent with imperfect information theoretical settings where interest rate hikes are interpreted as positive news about the state of the economy by consumers who know that policymakers have relatively more information.     

Monetary Policy,Expectations and Commitment*

Commitment in monetary policy leads to equilibria that are superior to those from optimal discretionary policies. A number of interest‐rate reaction functions and instrument rules have been proposed to implement or approximate commitment policy. We assess these rules in terms of whether they lead to a rational expectations equilibrium that is both locally determinate and stable under adaptive learning by private agents. A reaction function that appropriately depends explicitly on private sector expectations performs particularly well on both counts.     

Experience Goods, Expectations and Pricing*

This paper studies a peculiar problem involved in the pricing of an 'experience good' whose value is not known to consumers until it is actually consumed It shows that the producer faces an expectational problem that does not arise in the framework of a 'search good'. Noticing a link between markets in earlier and later periods due to the expectational problem, the present paper analyzes equilibrium price patterns when a producer can precommit to a certain future price path and when he cannot It also discusses social welfare implications.     

Expectations Heterogeneity and Excessive Price Sensitivity in the Land Market

This paper analyses price behaviour in the land market in which the Walrasian auctioneer is absent. Sellers are informed about the land value and post their asking prices; buyers are uninformed, have different opinions, and decide whether or not to accept the sellers' offers. In this market, sellers are "price-makers" with probabilisitic market power : they can influence the sale probability through their asking price. Price may be excessively sensitive to unexpected changes in market conditions. Moreover, buyer heterogeneity may accentuate the excessive price sensitivity. It has been shown that, the more heterogeneous their opinions, the more sensitive are prices.
JEL Classification Numbers: D40, D43, D82, D84, E44, G12.     

Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market

This paper develops a simultaneous rational expectations model of the US oats market Consistent estimates of the structural parameters are obtained by the instrumental variables method and 15 of 16 parameter estimates are significant at the 5 per cent level Estimated elasticities suggest that hedged stocks are more responsive to price changes than unhedged stocks, and that consumption demand for oats is more responsive to income changes than to changes in price. Post-sample forecasts of the spot price derived from this model are employed to test the semi-strong form efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), although the futures price outperforms the model as a predictor of the spot price. Hence the EMH cannot be rejected     

Price Dynamics in Repeat-Purchase Markets*

A retail market in which customers repeat purchase is modelled. When customer movement between firms is sluggish, price overshooting characterizes firms' optimal response to demand or cost shocks. Thus retail prices would be predicted to be more variable than wholesale prices, a prediction at variance with empirical evidence. Uncertainty in demand and customer imperfect information are introduced into the model to attempt to reconcile this inconsistency between theory and evidence. The introduction of demand uncertainty actually increases the magnitude of price overshooting. By contrast, the introduction of imperfect customer information reduces the variability in retail prices.     

Wages and Unemployment in Australia*

This paper reviews various models that may be used to analyze the inflation-unemployment problem in Australia. The focus is on the unemployment problem, rather than on inflation, and on the role of wages, nominal and real, in affecting this problem. Models discussed include the Popular Keynesian, Phillips Curve, Fixed Coefficient and Neoclassical Models. The possibility of increasing returns is considered. Australian evidence bearing on the appropriateness of these models is discussed. The effect of demand expansion on the exchange rate and hence real wages is stressed. Some emphasis is placed on the concept of ‘union-voluntary’ unemployment. At the end possible solutions to the unemployment problem are summarized.     

Analyzing Income Distribution in Australia*

This paper contains an analysis of the sources of income inequality in Australia, based on data from the ABS income survey for 1978-79. The analysis proceeds by progressive decomposition of the population into component groups differentiated by characteristics such as sex, age, employment status and occupation. At each stage of the decomposition, total inequality is partitioned into contributions from within and between the component groups, as measured by the Shorrocks Iq index. The importance of the characteristic in question as a source of inequality can then be assessed. While the results of the analysis are described in some detail, the emphasis of the paper is primarily methodological.