The Impact of Dividends, Debt and Investment on Valuation Models

The reliability of a basic earnings and equity model of value is tested using 8,287 cases drawn from UK industrial and commercial firms reporting during 1987–1995. A respecification of this model is used to investigate the value relevance of dividends, capital structure and capital expenditure. Both the dividend and capital expenditure signals appear to be significant and the impact of the former is surprisingly strong. There is no convincing evidence that equity value is affected by the level of debt. Further investigation of dividends confirms that they are less influential in large firms or in firms with high return on equity.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation: From Research to Practice

Financial statement analysis has traditionally been seen as part of thefundamental analysis required for equity valuation. But the analysis has typicallybeen ad hoc. Drawing on recent research on accounting-based valuation, this paperoutlines a financial statement analysis for use in equity valuation. Standardprofitability analysis is incorporated, and extended, and is complemented with ananalysis of growth. An analysis of operating activities is distinguished from theanalysis of financing activities. The perspective is one of forecasting payoffs to equities. So financial statement analysis is presented as a matter of pro formaanalysis of the future, with forecasted ratios viewed as building blocks offorecasts of payoffs. The analysis of current financial statements is then seen asa matter of identifying current ratios as predictors of the future ratios thatdetermine equity payoffs. The financial statement analysis is hierarchical, withratios lower in the ordering identified as finer information about those higher up.To provide historical benchmarks for forecasting, typical values for ratios aredocumented for the period 1963–1999, along with their cross-sectionalvariation and correlation. And, again with a view to forecasting, the time seriesbehavior of many of the ratios is also described and their typical long-run,steady-state levels are documented.     

The Market Value of UK Dividends From Shares With Differing Entitlements

Abstract:   This paper determines the market value of dividends in the UK during periods before and after 1997. Previous studies, which use the ex‐dividend day method, tend to provide noisy and potentially biased measures of dividend value. We estimate the value of dividends from the prices of shares that are identical except for their dividend entitlements, and are traded concurrently (within the same hour). We argue that our estimates of dividend value are the cleanest yet available for the UK. Our evidence suggests that ex‐dividend day estimates are biased downwards, but that this bias may be mitigated by the use of robust regression. Dividend values are heterogeneous and are not explained by the tax‐clientele hypothesis.     

Analysts Earnings Forecasts and the Roles of Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation

This study examines the effect of the degree of association between current earnings and expected future earnings on the relative importance of earnings and book value for explaining equity price. Consensus analysts forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings are used to proxy for expected future earnings and are compared to reported current earnings to measure the degree of the association. We find that the value-relevance of current earnings negatively correlates with the extent to which consensus analysts forecasts deviate from current earnings. We also find that the incremental explanatory power of book value for equity price positively correlates with this measure. These results remain robust after controlling for factors known to be affecting the value-relevance of earnings such as negative earnings and the earnings-to-book ratio. Our results also show that this analysts' forecast-based measure of `earnings persistence' dominates historical earnings variance in explaining cross-sectional variations in the value-relevance of earnings and book value.     

关于企业价值评估中交叉持股股权投资的评估

目前,交叉持股现象在企业之间越来越普遍,在企业价值评估中,交叉持股由于形成循环而难以确定企业交叉持股股权投资的评估价值,本文作者按照企业会计准则对股权投资的分类,分别就如何确定交叉持股股权投资的评估价值阐述了一些观点,希望同行们互相交流彼此的经验体会,以不断促进企业价值评估水平的提高。     

Valuation of the Firm's Liabilities When Equity Holders Are Also Creditors

Abstract:  This paper presents a tractable structural model whereby controlling equity holders are also among the creditors of the firm. As the firm approaches distress, equity holders can drain the assets of the firm and expropriate other creditors by repaying their credit before bankruptcy. The right of the bankruptcy court to revoke such repayment protects arm's length creditors, reduces the cost of borrowing and induces equity holders to anticipate repayment of their credit. Equity holders decide repayment neither too early nor too late, so as to reduce the risk of repayment revocation by the bankruptcy court. Similar conclusions apply to the preferential repayment of bank loans personally guaranteed by equity holders. The analysis also suggests that callable bearer bonds may be more valuable to equity holders than to other creditors.     

The Valuation Accuracy of the Price-Earnings and Price-Book Benchmark Valuation Methods

This paper evaluates the valuation accuracy of the price-earnings (P/E), the price-book (P/B) and a combined price-earnings and price-book (P/E-P/B) benchmark valuation methods. Performance of the benchmark valuation methods relies on the definition of comparable firms. In this paper, comparable firms are selected based on industry membership, size and return on equity as well as combinations of industry membership with size and with return on equity. We find that within the P/E and P/B benchmark valuation methods, the best definition of the comparable firms are based on industry membership combined with return on equity. However, only the industry membership is necessary to define the comparable firms for the combined P/E-P/B method. In sum, the results suggest that, when firm's value is unknown, the combined P/E-P/B valuation approach selecting comparable firms based on industry membership performs the best among all the approaches evaluated in this paper.We also find that the P/E benchmark valuation method performs better than the P/B benchmark valuation method and the combined method outperforms either the P/E or the P/B method. These results imply that earnings are more important than book value as a single-number firm valuator over our sample years (from 1973 to 1992) and that both earnings and book values are value relevant, one does not substitute perfectly for the other.     

The value of dividends: Evidence from cum-dividend trading in the ex-dividend period

What is the market value of a dollar of fully franked dividends? We address this question by exploiting a new phenomenon in the Australian capital market—the trading of shares cum-dividend during the ex-dividend period. This allows a relatively clean measurement of the combined value of dividends and the associated tax effects net of transactions costs. Consistent with the theoretical model that we develop, the evidence from this sample is that one dollar of fully franked dividends, after tax effects and transaction costs, is worth significantly more than one dollar. We also show that, in contrast to our measure, the traditional measure of the ex-dividend price drop-off, based on close to close prices, has a lower average value and exhibits substantially more cross sectional variation.     

The Aggregation and Valuation of Deferred Taxes

Review of Accounting Studies - This paper clarifies some of the conflicting arguments about the value relevance of deferred taxes. We address two questions. First, does accounting aggregation hold,...     

Dividend Forecast Biases in Index Option Valuation

Since the early days of option pricing theory,the assumption that the dividends on the underlying stock or index over the life of the contract are known has not been challenged. We examine the sensitivity of index option prices to the assumption of dividend uncertainty. We consider a number of issues related to the forecasting of dividends and build a dividend forecasting model that passes several rigorous tests for unbiasedness. We then generate option prices using contemporary market levels and interest rates. We find that prices generated with the actual dividends are unbiased with respect to those generated using the forecasted dividends. The magnitudes of the forecast errors, however, are sufficiently large to suggest a concern, but the percentage errors are consistently small, typically amounting to less than two percent of the option price. We conclude that the convenient assumption that the stream of future dividendsis known is probably innocuous. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

增发新股中的利益博弈和新股定价

本文将股票价格看作内在价值和一个美式看涨期权,对增发过程和IPO的区别之处--即时利益输送和股票价值两方面综合考虑,确定新老股东增发博弈中的支付函数,根据发行成功的纳什均衡条件得到增发定价合理值或合理区间,并利用该结果对69家增发公司实例进行分析,得出我国增发定价普遍高估,而现有的竞价机制具有一定的矫正功能的结论.     

The UK Equity Premium: 1901–2004

Abstract:  This paper examines the UK equity premium over more than a century using dividend growth to estimate expectations of capital gains employing the approach of Fama and French (2002) . Over recent decades estimated equity premia implied by dividend growth have been much lower than that produced by average stock returns for the UK market as a whole; a finding corroborated by all economic sub-sectors. The empirical analysis suggests this is primarily due to a declining discount rate, during the latter part of the 20th century, which would rationally stimulate unanticipated equity price rises during this period. Thus, I conclude that historical stock returns over recent decades have been above investors' expectations.     

The Pricing of French Unit Seasoned Equity Offerings

Units are bundles of common stock and warrants. By issuing units, firms precommit to a future and uncertain seasoned offering at the exercise price of the warrants. This study shows that the issuance of units seasoned offerings in France is accompanied by significant abnormal returns of on average 9–12%, depending on the computing methods. Underpricing increases with the risk of the issuer and the relative size of the future seasoned equity issue linked to warrant exercises. Our results are consistent with our signaling hypothesis.     

Accounting Valuation Models: A Short Primer

This note discusses basic issues related to residual income valuation (RIV) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) models but has only scratched the surface of a complex subject. What clearly emerges from this 'primer' is the conclusion that AEG is a more complex valuation model than RIV. This complexity concerns both the mechanics and interpretation of AEG compared to RIV. Furthermore, a study by Penman (2005 ) raises a question about the usefulness of AEG compared to RIV. His comparisons between RIV and AEG are rather remarkable and suggest that RIV gives estimates of value which are more accurate and less variable than estimates based on AEG. Clearly, these results need further study.