基于LFC模型的巨灾债券定价研究

本文的核心重点是对巨灾债券进行定价研究。通过对现阶段巨灾证券市场进行趋势性分析后发现,由于巨灾债券与其他金融产品的风险关联度较小的特性,投资者对其具有一定的需求量且需求不断上升,而国内现存风险证券化产品存在供给缺口。通过对黔东南州具体情况的分析,论证了在该地推行巨灾债券的必要性与可行性,并进一步运用LFC模型对巨灾债券进行定价,最后对模型存在的问题进行了部分修正和改进。     

中国地震损失分布与巨灾债券定价研究

中国是世界上遭受地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一,需要借鉴国际巨灾债券运作经验,进一步发挥保险业分散巨灾风险和补偿经济损失的作用。利用非寿险精算技术,将损失风险与利率风险理论模型相结合,对中国地震巨灾债券定价进行实证研究。结果表明:中国地震巨灾损失服从损失次数为泊松分布、损失额度为对数正态分布的聚合损失分布,通过与BDT无风险利率期限结构模型的结合,可以初步构建地震巨灾债券的定价模型并付诸实践。     

论巨灾风险的证券化

本文分析了巨灾债券的特点、发行机制和定价原理，并对我国保险公司在引入巨灾债券时所面临的问题进行了探讨。     

我国巨灾保险风险证券化的产品创新设计

巨灾保险风险证券化是以风险为标的,利用证券化技术,通过在资本市场上发行证券的方式转移巨灾保险风险。本文主要分析巨灾风险证券化的产品——传统巨灾债券的特征,并以其为基础提出一种保险系统内部证券化的途径来分散巨灾风险的新型金融工具。本文研究了其发行主体和设计思路并运用债券定价公式和资本资产定价模型来确定其价格和发行规模。最后本文论述了其对我国保险市场的意义。     

地震损失风险转移措施初探

地震保险已成为地震灾害损失补偿和风险分散的重要途径。但传统的巨灾地震保险作为社会化的风险损失承担机制在具有优势的同时也具有其一定的弊端和限制。而作为传统保险补充的再保险,是地震损失风险转移的主要措施,已成为世界上分散巨灾风险的一项金融保险创新。在利用1996~2003年地震直接经济损失在1500万美元以上的数据精算后,我们初步分析出近几十年的全球地震损失分布和次数,并在此基础上利用CAPM的债券定价原理和二叉树模型,计算出地震灾害债券的收益率和价格。     

可转换债券定价模型的研究

首先描述了可转换债券定价模型,然后对这些模型进行了较为详细地分析,最后提出了可转换债券定价模型所存在的问题。     

我国可转换债券定价的实证分析

通过引用Black-Scholes定价模型评估期权的价值,并对Black-Scholes定价模型进行修正,体现了红利发放对可转换债券定价的影响,该模型可以在理论定价的基础上提高可转换债券定价的精确性。而且通过对可转换债券的理论价格和实际价格之间的相关关系研究,得出可转换债券的理论价格和实际价格之间的线性关系,对投资者具有指导意义。     

我国发展巨灾债券可行性及对策分析

巨灾债券是最常见的巨灾风险证券化的形式,本文对巨灾债券的发生机理进行了研究,同时探讨了我国开展巨灾债券的可行性,提出了适应我国巨灾债券的发展的对策。     

巨灾债券在巨灾风险管理中的应用

越来越多的保险公司、再保险公司及大型企业倾向于发行巨灾债券来转移、分散巨灾风险,巨灾债券的出现是巨灾风险证券化的结果,在各种保险连结票据及其衍生品中,巨灾债券的发行量和交易量最大。巨灾债券有多种分类方式,巨灾债券发行的市场结构通常由发行人、投资者和SPV组成,巨灾债券的发行过程可以分为六个阶段。运用巨灾债券转移、分散巨灾风险显然对我国保险公司、再保险公司及大型企业的风险管理具有明显的借鉴意义。     

一个可转换债券的定价模型及其实证分析

可转换债券是我国证券市场上的一个新型投资工具，具有债券和期权的双重特征，对发行者和投资者都具有特殊的吸引力。发行者可以以较低的成本筹集资金，有利于稳定股票价格和减少对每股收益的稀释。投资者投资于可转换债券可以规避股市下跌的风险，同时又能在股市上扬的时候取得较高收益。作为一个债券和股票的混合衍生工具，如何合理的定价成为可转换债券研究的一个重要问题。本文从风险中立定价发出，利用二叉树建立一个期权定价模型，分析了影响价格的因素．并对市场上的具体产品进行了定价的实证运用。     

基于集对论的可转换债券定价模型

可转债是一种既含债券性质又含期权性质的金融衍生产品,利用常规的定价模型常常低估市场价格,使定价方法的可信度大大降低。基于集对分析方法,选取单因素B-S期权定价模型与单因素交换期权模型,对定价模型进行测度和修正,通过实证检验,可以了解到,修正后的定价模型更具适用性。     

A BENCHMARK APPROACH TO FINANCE

This paper derives a unified framework for portfolio optimization, derivative pricing, financial modeling, and risk measurement. It is based on the natural assumption that investors prefer more rather than less, in the sense that given two portfolios with the same diffusion coefficient value, the one with the higher drift is preferred. Each such investor is shown to hold an efficient portfolio in the sense of Markowitz with units in the market portfolio and the savings account. The market portfolio of investable wealth is shown to equal a combination of the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) and the savings account. In this setup the capital asset pricing model follows without the use of expected utility functions, Markovianity, or equilibrium assumptions. The expected increase of the discounted value of the GOP is shown to coincide with the expected increase of its discounted underlying value. The discounted GOP has the dynamics of a time transformed squared Bessel process of dimension four. The time transformation is given by the discounted underlying value of the GOP. The squared volatility of the GOP equals the discounted GOP drift, when expressed in units of the discounted GOP. Risk-neutral derivative pricing and actuarial pricing are generalized by the fair pricing concept, which uses the GOP as numeraire and the real-world probability measure as pricing measure. An equivalent risk-neutral martingale measure does not exist under the derived minimal market model.     

PRICING COUPON-BOND OPTIONS AND SWAPTIONS IN AFFINE TERM STRUCTURE MODELS

This paper provides a numerically accurate and computationally fast approximation to the prices of European options on coupon-bearing instruments that is applicable to the entire family of affine term structure models. Exploiting the typical shapes of the conditional distributions of the risk factors in affine diffusions, we show that one can reliably compute the relevant probabilities needed for pricing options on coupon-bearing instruments by the same Fourier inversion methods used in the pricing of options on zero-coupon bonds. We apply our theoretical results to the pricing of options on coupon bonds and swaptions, and the calculation of "expected exposures" on swap books. As an empirical illustration, we compute the expected exposures implied by several affine term structure models fit to historical swap yields.     

随机利率下住房反向抵押贷款的定价与应用

文章基于考虑老年人对养老金的需求不断增大,以及养老保障应具备抵御通货膨胀的能力等事实,运用精算法对传统的住房反向抵押贷款的定价模型进行了推广和改进,建立了联合随机利率下包含房价变动和房产折旧等影响因素的终身给付的住房反向抵押贷款定价模型,给出了多种支付方式下的定价公式及其近似公式,并通过一组实例验证了模型的正确性和合理性,为贷款机构制定住房反向抵押贷款价格提供了一定的依据。     

Reverse convertible bonds analyzed

We study the pricing of reverse convertible (RC) bonds. These are bonds that carry high coupon payments. In exchange, the issuer has an option at the maturity date to either redeem the bonds in cash or to deliver a pre‐specified number of shares. We find that Dutch plain vanilla and knock‐in RC bonds are, on average, overpriced by almost 6%. This overpricing is confirmed in a model‐free analysis with respect to option‐ and bond‐pricing models. We find that rational factors explain 23% of the documented overpricing. In addition, we find that the combination of financial marketing, framing, and the representativeness bias further increases our ability to explain the documented overpricing to more than 35%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:895–919, 2009     

INCORPORATING RISK AND AMBIGUITY AVERSION INTO A HYBRID MODEL OF DEFAULT

It is well known that purely structural models of default cannot explain short‐term credit spreads, while purely intensity‐based models lead to completely unpredictable default events. Here we introduce a hybrid model of default, in which a firm enters a “distressed” state once its nontradable credit worthiness index hits a critical level. The distressed firm then defaults upon the next arrival of a Poisson process. To value defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDSs), we introduce the concept of robust indifference pricing. This paradigm incorporates both risk aversion and model uncertainty. In robust indifference pricing, the optimization problem is modified to include optimizing over a set of candidate measures, in addition to optimizing over trading strategies, subject to a measure dependent penalty. Using our model and valuation framework, we derive analytical solutions for bond yields and CDS spreads, and find that while ambiguity aversion plays a similar role to risk aversion, it also has distinct effects. In particular, ambiguity aversion allows for significant short‐term spreads.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.     

Revisiting the valuation of deposit insurance

This study proposes a framework for pricing deposit insurance that evaluates the effect of depositor preference laws and the issuance of contingent capital bonds. Four main findings emerge from this study. First, traditional option pricing models of deposit insurance overestimate insurance premiums. Second, only large issuances of contingent capital bonds decrease deposit insurance premiums under depositor preference. Third, the issuance of contingent capital bonds can partially offset banks' excessive risk-taking caused by regulatory forbearance. Finally, although large banks have implied too-big-to-fail risks, the deposit insurer's costs from large banks are not nearly as high as reported in previous studies.     

新精算规定下的万能险公平价值问题分析

基于万能险的金融风险,给出了个人账户的价值模型,运用实物期权的基本思想与方法,在连续死亡效力情形下建立了万能险保单的公平价值模型,得到了公平定价的封闭形式解,实证分析表明,新精算规定的收费是公平的,模型结果与实际相符合。     

Pricing risky corporate bonds: An empirical study

This paper empirically studies a model for pricing risky corporate bonds proposed by Baaquie—based on the seminal Merton. The proposed model provides an exact solution for the price of a risky corporate bond with a finite maturity and explains the market price of corporate fixed coupon bonds as being the result of the market risk that is carried by the bond. Baaquie's model is empirically tested using 42 fixed coupon bonds issued by 23 US corporations, between 2011 and 2017. It is found that the proposed model estimates most bond prices quite accurately. Market time (similar to the concept of psychological time), which is distinct from calendar time, is quantified in the paper and is an exogenous behavioral parameter that plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy of the pricing model for long-maturity risky bonds.