商业银行偿付能力风险、流动性风险与银行体系风险

宏观审慎监管需要微观基础.研究商业银行偿付能力风险与流动性风险和银行体系风险的关系,有助于监管当局制定合适的监管工具,有效管理银行业的系统性风险.中国未曾爆发过真正意义的银行业危机,因而研究影响银行业系统性风险的因素成为难题.在借鉴风险二维定义属性基础上,本文对商业银行偿付能力风险和流动性风险如何影响银行业稳定进行了实证分析.分析结果表明,当商业银行偿付能力上升时,银行风险承担会上升,进而增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行流动性风险的上升也会增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行偿付能力提高时,流动性风险会降低;商业银行流动性风险上升时,偿付能力风险也上升.     

IMF调低2008年预期经济增长率

<正>国际货币基金组织(IMF)2008年1月29日表示,由于受到最近金融市场动荡和美国经济疲软的影响,今年世界经济预期增长率将由去年的4.9%调低至4.1%。对于金融市场,IMF指出,恶化的经济条件将可能加剧那些在次贷危机中损失巨大的主要金融机构的压力。1.发达国家:由于在制造业、房地产业、就业和消费方面的疲软,美国的经济增长在去年第四季度已经明显放慢。IMF估计,今年美国经济增长率将从去年的2.2个百分点下调至1.5个百分点。     

亚洲金融危机原因分析及给我国带来的启示

1997年泰国爆发货币危机发展成金融和经济危机,很快波及其他国家和地区.大多数东亚经济的货币和资产价值跌落了30%～40%,有的下跌得更为厉害.东亚地区的银行和企业陷入空前的财务危机.泰国、印尼和韩国不得不请求国际货币基金组织(IMF)援助.     

亚洲金融危机后各国的应对措施与政策教训

一、做了些什么:卷入危机各国的应对措施1997年危机爆发后,各国从货币政策、财政政策和结构与制度改革方面采取了一系列措施.财政政策.受影响各国在整个九十所代都有赢余或至少是收支平衡的.随着危机的加深,财政政策的预算平衡目标开始有意识地放松,以支持经济复苏.与此同时,财政需要为金融体系的整顿而提供资金,其中为银行的再资本化提供资金所需要的数量约占GDP的20%(印度尼西亚和马来西亚)到30%(韩国和泰国).     

财政调整、机会主义与财政成本研究

转型国家在面对经济转型过程中的各种困难和危机时一般都通过财政调整来摆脱困境,走向经济稳定增长。然而,财政调整的过程往往伴随着财政成本的积累。从政府作为一个"经济人"的角度来考察财政调整,会发现政府在财政调整过程中的机会主义行为,即尽可能将财政调整向后延迟、用长期财政调整成本来代替短期财政调整成本是其理性选择。我国财政调整的渐进性恰恰就是通过积累长期财政成本来减少短期财政成本以降低财政调整的难度和改革的阻力的。     

美国次贷危机影响与中国宏观经济政策

一、次贷危机对中国出口贸易的影响 2007年,全球的总产出几乎增长5%,这是16年中最快的,其中,1/3以上的增长来自美国,或是直接实现的,或是通过美国从其他国家的进口的方式问接实现的.美国作为全球最大的市场,其经济一旦显著降温,势必对全球经济带来影响.根据世界银行和IMF的统计:20世纪70年代以来,美国经济的历次衰退或减速都伴随着其他主要经济体和贸易伙伴的相应变动.     

交易费用与系统性银行危机中的合约选择

金融危机作为一种宏观现象,有其发生的微观内在机理。交易费用是影响金融合约选择的重要因素,作为交易过程中发生的成本,其大小影响着金融合约能否顺利达成。金融危机期间交易费用的上升大大阻碍了银行业务合约的订立,从而引起银行体系系统性的信用收缩,导致金融危机的恶化和实体经济的衰退。为降低系统性的信用紧缩,必须在危机时期采取降低交易费用的措施。     

欧元区爆发全面经济危机的风险和可能的政策选择

欧洲经济正面临债务高企、银行流动性不足和经济低迷的全面危机。债务危机表现为国家主权债务规模上升、债务成本居高不下、短期内偿债压力巨大;银行危机表现为银行业持有大量重债国债务、资产减记、资本金缺口大和融资困难。经济持续低迷与债务危机相互强化,形成恶性循环。短期内欧洲国家将继续执行紧缩性财政政策,欧洲央行实行宽松的货币政策。中长期看可能对重债国进行债务重组,或发行欧元债券,建立欧洲统一的风险和责任共担机制。     

爱尔兰主权债务危机成因探析及对中国的启示

爱尔兰在2010年里经历了银行危机的迅速恶化,国家债券融资成本急速飙升,最终不得不申请国际货币基金组织(IMF)、欧盟和欧洲央行(ECB)的救助,使爱尔兰成为世界瞩目的焦点。那么曾享有凯尔特小虎经济之美誉的爱尔兰为什么会形成现在     

经济转型时期我国商业银行的流动性风险防范

金融危机传染往往给一个国家或地区的经济带来巨大的损失。本文以我国商业银行为研究对象,通过建立流动性偏好模型,分析比较了在流动性冲击干扰下,不完全竞争银行间存款市场结构和完全竞争银行间存款市场结构中银行危机传染的机制。对我国商业银行转轨过程中金融风险的控制提出建议。     

金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响及应对之策初探

由华尔街次贷危机引发的全球金融危机正在由虚拟经济向实体经济蔓延．由发达国家向发展中国家蔓延，中国也将不可避免的受到影响和波及，银行业理财产品市场也遭受了极大的考验。文章在对金融危机对我国银行理财产品影响分析的基础上，提出了应对之策。     

Financial Liberalisation and the South Korean Financial Crisis: An Analysis of Expert Opinion

This paper provides a novel analysis of the South Korean financial crisis drawing on the findings of a unique survey of IMF/World Bank and South Korean experts. The survey reveals that over‐optimism and inadequate recognition of financial risks inadvertently led to excessive risk‐taking by Korean financial intermediaries. It also indicates that the sources of over‐optimistic assessments of East Asian economies were mainly to be found outside East Asia and included the Bretton Woods Institutions themselves, Western media and analysts. In Korea, weaknesses in risk management were the result of (i) lack of expertise in relation to handling the risks associated with capital flows, and (ii) disincentives to manage risks emanating from a relatively successful history of government‐provided safety nets for both industry and banking. Financial liberalisation widened risk‐taking opportunities, by allowing Korean financial institutions to both borrow from and lend to institutions outside Korea. It also created additional disincentives for managing risk by intensifying competition and eroding bank franchise values. Weaknesses in prudential regulation allowed bank portfolios to become riskier, especially in terms of increased liquidity risk as a result of maturity mismatches between dollar‐denominated assets and liabilities. The liquidity crisis, which followed the re‐assessment of the South Korean economy by international lenders in late 1997, triggered a full‐blown financial crisis because of the absence of an effective international lender of last resort.     

浅析俄罗斯当前的金融危机

金融危机的影响正在俄罗斯蔓延,涉及到俄罗斯经济的方方面面,主要表现在:银行体系资金不足、卢布持续贬值、股市大跌、外汇储备减少。这使油气行业、工业生产、建筑业饱受冲击,造成失业人数大幅度增加,拖欠工资现象严重。俄罗斯政府凭借本国优势,积极采取政府向金融市场大量注资,支持实体经济,修改政府财政预算,减少政府支出等措施应对危机。     

中国金融体系的脆弱性与道德风险

道德风险行为就是当签约一方不完全承担风险后果时所采取的自身效用最大化的自私行为.中国金融体系存在严重的脆弱性,根本原因也在于道德风险.政府不仅对银行提供了担保,也认为证券市场"太大而不能失败".证券市场危机往往是金融危机的先行指标,随之而来的银行危机和货币危机将决定金融危机的深度和广度.中国金融体系的道德风险已经深入到最基层的代理人,其代价将是非常惨重的.     

银行危机传导机制的理论分析

了解传导机制可以为阻断危机蔓延提供科学依据,本文从危机传导的基本内涵入手,分析了银行危机传导的诱因——银行脆弱性,提出金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的根本原因。本文在银行危机传导传统定义的基础上重新界定了该概念,分析了银行危机传导的途径,认为金融脆弱性是银行危机传导的重要媒介,防止银行危机传导的根本措施是提高银行的稳健性。     

论全球金融危机对韩国的影响

金球金融危机对韩国的影响,主要是对韩国经济和金融市场的影响,具体表现在韩国股市、汇市下跌速度明显加快.韩国经济战缓等方面.虽然韩国政府采取了诸如干预汇市,支持股市,援助银行业,刺激经济计划、央行减息等一些列救援措施,但从总体上看,如果2009年上半年全球金融危机没有得到显著缓解,韩国经济将继续面对国内需求严重萎缩以及出口急速下降的双重打击.韩元的疲软走势将持续,可能导致其国内经济大幅下滑.     

Whistleblowing,Governance and Regulation Before the Financial Crisis: The Case of HBOS

Following the financial crisis of 2008, the Treasury Committee of the UK House of Commons undertook an inquiry into the lessons that might be learned from the banking crisis. Paul Moore, head of group regulatory risk at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) during 2002–2005, provided evidence of his experience of questioning HBOS policies which resulted in his dismissal from HBOS. The problems that surfaced at HBOS during the financial crisis were so serious that it was forced to merge with Lloyds TSB, another UK bank, to form the Lloyds Banking Group in which the government took a significant stake. Moore’s evidence to the Treasury Committee revealed that long before the financial crisis, he had raised major concerns with the management of HBOS and with the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the UK financial services regulator. Moore’s evidence led to the submission of further disclosures, replies and rejoinders as evidence to the Treasury Committee. Moore’s case is therefore of considerable interest to researchers of whistleblowing because it is a rare instance of high-level whistleblowing, the details of which subsequently entered the public domain. The information revealed in evidence to the Treasury Committee sheds light on the process of whistleblowing in the context of the governance and regulation of a major UK bank that subsequently had to be rescued by government intervention during the financial crisis. The paper makes a contribution to the wider literature on whistleblowing, and to a greater understanding of aspects of the financial crisis.     

次贷危机背景下我国商业银行对个人住房信贷风险的防范

美国次贷危机已演变成为了全球性的金融危机。我国商业银行的个人住房信贷扩张累积了较大风险与个贷危机,次贷危机的冲击将使个人住房贷款者信用风险的集中爆发,也会使房地产市场发展的不确定性风险加大等问题完全暴露。我国商业银行必须采取措施,提前防范其对银行体系内个人住房信贷所产生的不良影响,严格控制个人住房贷款者的信用级别,完善并严厉执行银行体系的内部控制,增强银行自身的流动性,加强金融创新监管,以全面保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

Financial integration and banking crisis. A critical analysis of restrictions on capital flows

We investigate the effect of financial integration on a banking crisis. In contrast to existing works, we allow for capital restrictions while studying the impact of financial integration on a banking crisis. Using firm-level lending and borrowing information in the global market of syndicated loans; we generate aggregate measures of financial integration and examine how countries with capital flow restrictions thrive in the wake of a banking crisis. We concentrate on basic network measures of integration for a panel of 62 countries that allow for capital restriction at any time within the sample period. Financial integration increases the incidence of a banking crisis, and capital restrictions worsen a banking crisis. However, capital restrictions reduce the negative impact of financial integration on the incidence of a banking crisis. Thus, financial integration becomes beneficial when countries allow for some forms of capital control.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Australian Bank Risk

This paper examines the global financial crisis (GFC) and its impact on Australian banking risk. An augmented market model is developed to identify changes in listed Australian bank systematic risk in relation to three key events: the GFC's start in August 2007, the market downturn in Australian and global share markets in January 2008, and the announcement of Australia's Deposit and Wholesale Funding Guarantee (DWFG) scheme on 12 October 2008. The study also examines changes in bank systemic risk during these event periods. The Australian market offers a unique opportunity to observe the impact of the introduction of the DWFG in that it lacked any explicit deposit insurance prior to the crisis. Initially, the crisis period had little impact on bank systematic risk while bank systemic risk increased considerably. The share market downturn caused a marked increase in both systematic and systemic risks for Australia's major internationally connected banks followed by a reduction in both systematic and systemic risks with the introduction of the guarantee scheme for all Australian banks.