Layout of Offshore Financial Centers on Southwest Border Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

通过构建离岸金融中心因素评价指标体系及其层次结构模型,运用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,对西南边疆离岸金融中心布局的具体方案进行优选决策。研究结果表明,金融机构创新能力、人才储备、金融机构竞争力与区位优势等几个因素对离岸金融中心形成和发展影响最大,在布局离岸金融中心时应该重点关注。同时,还应该注意发挥政府的主导作用。     

Using Goal Programming and the analytic hierarchy process in house selection

The house selection process involves an assessment by the buyer of a series of qualitative and quantitative factors. Simple ranking or weighting selection methods utilizing these factors can lead to less than optimal decision making. This paper presents a model to aid in the house selection decision process. Specifically, this paper presents a Goal Programming (GP) model that utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate property attributes and make an optimal house selection decision. The formulation methodology for the proposed house selection modeling process is illustrated with examples based on data from a prior study.     

我国个人银行结算账户开户数量合理性实证研究

随着金融供给侧结构性改革和普惠金融进程的不断深入,我国金融服务质量不断提升,银行服务的可获得性和服务质量均得到明显改善。个人银行账户分类改革实施以来,个人多元化支付需求得到充分满足,银行账户风险得到有效控制。但在市场机制作用下,科学合理的银行账户数量对刺激金融服务需求、实现普惠金融、控制金融风险将起到推动作用。本文将针对市场环境下,通过建立科学的分析框架对个人银行账户开立需求与合理开户数量进行关联分析,选取层次分析法AHP和BP神经网络组合,训练得出“个人银行账户开立需求-个人银行账户合理数量”预测模型。最终根据不同个体银行账户开户需求系数得到个人银行开户指导数量并提出数量管理实施路径和相关政策建议。     

基于AHP法高校财务风险评价体系研究

随着高等教育事业的蓬勃发展,高校资金投入产出量的不断加大,财务风险逐渐凸显,主要表现在：贷款规模盲目扩大引发负债风险,校办企业经营不善产生投资风险,内控制度管理薄弱导致运营风险高等。文章通过层次分析法,分析现阶段高校普遍存在的新的风险,建立风险预警体制,找出影响高校财务风险的关键因素,并针对性地提出风险规避措施。     

内蒙古地级市城市承载力综合评价研究

城镇化发展过程中不断提升城市承载力,促进城市人口、经济、资源环境等协调发展,实现城市可持续发展是时代的要求.内蒙古城镇化进程平稳而快速,而其城市承载力水平如何亟待关注与评价.本文从土地、水资源、科教、交通与环境等角度选取指标构建城市承载力评价指标体系,使用判断矩阵最大特征根对应的特征向量归一化值确定综合评价中各级指标的权重,并通过对比分析与评价,发现内蒙古各城市承载力水平低且不平衡以及水资源是影响城市承载力发展的短板瓶颈因素,最后提出了进一步提升内蒙古城市综合承载力的对策建议.     

地方法人金融机构利率定价能力评估体系建设的实证研究——基于层次分析法的指标体系设计及应用

如何科学、客观、全面地对地方性法人金融机构的利率定价能力进行评估,是当前深入推进利率市场化不可回避的重要环节。本文试图在对利率定价能力相关基本概念进行归纳定义的基础上,综合分析了影响地方法人金融机构利率定价能力的一系列因素,运用层次分析法(AHP)建立了一套利率定价能力评估指标体系,从机制建设、贷款定价、风险管理、经营效益、外部条件等七个方面对地方法人金融机构利率定价能力进行评价,包括定性、定量共26个评价指标,对3家地方法人金融机构进行了实证分析,提出了对策建议。     

新形势下风险导向型外汇管理内部审计指标体系研究

需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱是当前我国经济发展面临的“三重压力”。本文识别梳理“三重压力”下外汇管理面临的新风险、新挑战,基于应对风险挑战对外汇管理内部审计体系进行再审视,明确内部审计应对“三重压力”的原则和路径。在此基础上,运用层次分析法构建新形势下基于风险导向的外汇管理内部审计指标体系,梳理审计实践中需要关注的重点并提出建立完善审计操作指引、增强审计结果运用等政策建议。     

中国银行信贷项目环境风险评估模型的构建和应用

拥有自己的环境风险评估模型是银行进行独立环境决策和进一步降低环境风险的基础,也是强化信贷手段在预防和控制环境污染两方面作用的需要。参照银行绿色信贷的赤道原则构建信贷项目的环境风险评估指标体系,并通过问卷调查和层次分析法确定四大国有银行、中型银行、小型银行和外资银行共四类商业银行的指标权重,建立起符合他们各自风险偏好的环境风险评估模型,再以实例分析来说明模型的具体应用过程,结果发现,非外资银行偏重包含政策因素的社会环境指标,在自然环境因素中偏重污染物排放指标;外资银行则具有较平均的权重,且重视生态、社区和工作环境等指标。     

财政科技创新项目绩效审计评价指标设计及应用

财政项目支出绩效审计是政府绩效审计的重要内容,如何构建合理的绩效审计评价指标并运用科学的评价方法是获得客观的审计结论的重要前提。本文分析了绩效审计评价指标体系的构建原则,在此基础上构建了一项财政科技创新项目的绩效审计评价指标,并采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对该项目进行绩效审计评价,将定性评价的指标演算为量化的评价结论。最后,在结论部分,对模糊层次分析法在绩效审计评价中的运用进行了总结。     

保险市场逆向选择与顺向选择共存研究

保险市场存在着逆向选择。经典逆向选择模型认为,风险高的人会购买更多的保险,但大多数实证研究表明保险市场还存在顺向选择。本文认为,逆向选择和顺向选择虽然对立,但共存于保险市场,在此基础上构建保险市场均衡模型,并进行了仿真研究。     

我国房产养老保险制度的探讨

改革开放以来,中国人口年龄结构发生了历史性变化,老龄化程度日益加重.房产养老保险正是顺应时代发展和符合时代要求的一种解决养老问题的金融创新工具,对房产养老保险的制度框架进行分析,是这种创新产品得以成功推广的前提.本文结合我国房产养老保险现状与美国房产价值可转换抵押贷款的发展,设计了我国房产养老保险的制度框架,明确了房产...     

Using Bayesian variable selection methods to choose style factors in global stock return models

This paper investigates the presence of global style factors in global equity investment. To this end, we apply Bayesian variable selection methods from the statistics literature to give guidance in the decision to include/omit factors in a global (linear factor) stock return model. Once we have accounted for country and sector, it is possible to see which style or styles best explains current asset returns. This study does not find compelling evidence for global styles as useful explanatory factors in a fixed parameter regression model, once country and sector have been accounted for.     

关于我国商业银行建设流程银行的思考

从传统部门银行向流程银行过度是我国银行业深化改革一条较优的路径选择。随着我国商业银行经营体制的不断变革,构建流程银行已成为国内商业银行深化改革的重要目标。本文从流程银行理论入手,结合国际流程银行再造的成功经验,以及我国商业银行的经营管理模式,提出构建流程银行的设想。     

Alternative Methods of Increasing the Precision of Weighted Repeat Sales House Prices Indices

Weighted repeat sales house price indices have become one of the primary indicators used to identify housing market conditions and to estimate the amount of equity homeowners have gained through house price appreciation. The primary reason for the acceptance of this methodology is that it derives a location specific (typically, census division, state or metropolitan area) average change in house prices from repeated observations of individual house prices. It is this repeat attribute that allows repeat sales price indices to claim that it is a preferable index which does a better job of holding quality constant. The amount of time between the two observed prices for a single property is determined by when the home transacts. Some homes transact twice in a period of months and others do not transact for decades. It is likely that individual house price appreciation rates vary from the mean appreciation rate, as estimated by the index, in a systematic fashion. In general, the longer the time between transactions the more variance there is in individual house price appreciation. This paper extends this concept to include new dimensions. For instance, houses that appreciate faster than the mean, as estimated by the index for that location, may experience a different variation structure than homes that appreciate slower. This process can be viewed as an asymmetric treatment of the variance of house price appreciation around the estimated index. In addition, the variance of expensive and affordable homes may also be different and time varying. This paper finds evidence that adding the dimensions of price tiers and asymmetry to the variance estimate has merit and does affect the estimated index as well as homeowner equity estimates. Homeowner equity estimates are especially sensitive to these added dimensions because they depend on both the revised index and the estimated variances, which are specific to each dimension considered—time between transaction, asymmetry, and price tier.     

A study of the internal control structure for electronic data interchange systems using the analytic hierarchy process

Electronic data interchange (EDI) systems involve the direct exchange of structured business data between trading partner computer systems. A reliable internal control structure is the primary means of providing assurance of information integrity in EDI systems. This paper reports the results of a study that examined information system (IS) managers' and computerised information system (CIS) auditors' judgements of the relative importance of elements of the internal control structure for EDI systems, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). It then assessed the degree of consensus in their judgements. Generally consensus was found to be high. However, the areas where there was lack of consensus may indicate potential areas of control weakness in EDI systems.     

Redistributive taxation and social insurance under adverse selection in the insurance market

This paper extends the analysis of optimal income taxation under uncertainty studied by Cremer and Pestieau (International Tax and Public Finance, 3, 281–295, 1996). We introduce asymmetric information in the insurance market whereby private insurance companies cannot identify the risk probability of the agents, and we examine its effect on public policy. We consider the separating equilibrium of Rothschild and Stiglitz (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 90, 629–649, 1976) and Riley (Econometrica, 47, 331–359, 1979) where the low risk agent is only partially insured. The presence of the distortion in the insurance market changes the affinity of labor, and in some cases, we show that the scope of redistribution and the resulting social welfare are higher under asymmetric information than under full information. We also show that the increase in social insurance affects the utility and labor incentive of the low risk type by relaxing the self-selection constraint in the insurance market. The policy implications of the redistributive taxation and social insurance are analytically and numerically examined.      

On the Validity of the Wiener Process Assumption in Option Pricing Models: Contradictory Evidence from Taiwan

This study tests the validity of the critical assumption underlying the option pricing model that the log form of the stock price movements follows the Wiener process, i.e., stock price movements follow a geometric Brownian motion. Using data compiled from the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE), this study's major empirical findings are as follows: first, the null hypothesis that the log of the stock prices is normally distributed is rejected; second, the null hypothesis that the stock price in log form has mean [ln P _s + (µ- ²)_t] and variance t is rejected; third, the null hypothesis that successive non-overlapping increments of the log of the stock price are independent from each other is also rejected. These empirical findings undermine the validity of the Wiener process assumption which is fundamental to many option pricing models.     

金融企业社会责任与财务绩效关系的实证研究

从企业社会责任的概念出发,根据利益相关者的理论框架,提出以股东、员工、消费者、政府为利益相关者的金融企业社会责任指标体系,运用极值标准化处理原始数据和层次分析法设置权重.并通过对我国上市的14家银行2003～2007年的面板数据进行相关分析和回归分析,验证了金融企业社会责任与财务绩效之间的关系,结果基本上证实了金融企业履行社会责任可以提高财务绩效等理论假设.     

Adverse selection in the annuity market with sequential and simultaneous insurance demand

This paper investigates the effect of adverse selection on the private annuity market in a model with two periods of retirement and two types of individuals, who differ in their life expectancy. In order to introduce the existence of time-limited pension insurance, we consider a model where for each period of retirement separate contracts can be purchased. Demand for the two periods can be decided sequentially or simultaneously. We show that only a situation where all risk types choose sequential contracts is an equilibrium and that this outcome is favourable for the long-living, but is unfavourable for the short-living individuals. JEL Classification D82 · D91 · G22     

The peer effect in adverse selection: Evidence from the micro health insurance market in Pakistan

The peer effect may amplify adverse selection in social networks, hampering the sustainable operation of microinsurance. This paper uses data from a micro health insurance program in Pakistan to test for the peer effect in renewal decisions and the role it plays in amplifying adverse selection within social networks. The paper finds evidence supporting that insurance renewal decisions are similar among peers in the same network, and the peer effect is stronger among households of the same risk type than households of different risk types, indicating that the heterogeneous peer effect acts as an amplifier for adverse selection. The paper provides policy implications for effective ways to mitigate the peer effect and adverse selection, based on the results of heterogeneity analyses. The policy recommendation is to enforce a minimum group enrollment rate requirement of at least 60% for large groups to mitigate the peer effect.