货币信贷结构对宏观经济的机理性影响——兼对“中国货币迷失之谜”的再解释

本文使用机理变化型变结构协整模型实证分析了1996年1月至2013年5月期间货币信贷结构对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明:货币信贷结构均在特定时点开始对产出和通货膨胀率产生机理性影响;货币结构与信贷期限结构对实际产出分别具有较弱的正向和负向机理性影响,对通货膨胀率均具有一定程度的正向机理性影响,并且货币信贷结构对通货膨胀率的影响程度明显大于货币信贷总量。在此基础上,通过比较分析货币信贷结构与“货币迷失”之间的关系,发现货币结构与信贷期限结构对“中国货币迷失之谜”均具有很强的解释力。政策建议如下:中国人民银行应同时注重货币信贷总量与结构的调控,监测货币信贷结构的变动应成为提高货币政策有效性与制定货币政策的重要参考。     

中国货币供给增长率与通货膨胀率相互关系的实证分析

货币供应量变化不仅对通货膨胀率有着长期影响,还存在一个短期的误差修正机制,它们之间的关系受到总需求和总供给的影响.本文以货币数量论为理论基础,选取1998年到2013年第一季度的相关数据,研究货币供应量增长率和通货膨胀率两者之间的相互关系,采用单位根检验,协整分析与Granger因果关系检验来实证研究我国通货膨胀率与货币供给增长率两者之间的因果关系.结果显示,通货膨胀率与货币供给增长率两者互为Granger因果关系.最后在以上基础上提出了治理通货膨胀的相关政策建议.     

货币供给量中介目标有效性的实证研究——基于中国1990～2005年间的数据

文章利用1990～2005年间的数据,根据货币供应量增长率与经济增长率和通货膨胀率之间有较强的相关性,利用因果关系的格兰杰检验,发现货币供应量增长率是通货膨胀率与经济增长率的格兰杰原因,进一步的脉冲反应分析,表明货币供应量增长率对通货膨胀率的影响时滞为2～3年,对经济增长率也具有1￣2年的影响力。在我国目前的金融制度安排下,由于利率市场化的条件尚不具备,选择货币供应量作为中介目标是明智之举。     

我国货币替代成因的实证研究

货币替代问题已越来越受到学者们的关注。本文试图对影响我国货币替代的可能因素:规模性因素、本外币收益率差、汇率因素、国内通货膨胀率、人民币有效汇率波动和制度因素进行综合分析研究。考虑到2001年以前国内居民对外币的需求受到诸多限制,本文选取2001年第二季度到2009年第三季度的数据进行建模分析。结果表明:除了制度因素不是我国货币替代的显著影响因素外,其他的因素对我国的货币替代都有显著影响。     

中国货币需求的实证研究

货币需求对货币政策的具体实施至关重要.用协整检验方法对中国1979～2003年间的长期货币需求进行检验,检验结果说明M1实际余额与实际GDP和1年期存款利率存在同积关系,M2与实际GDP和1年期存款利率以及通货膨胀率存在同积关系,这表明实际货币余额与实际GDP,利率或通货膨胀率之间存在长期稳定关系.用误差纠正模型对M1和M2的短期货币需求函数进行估计,表明在短期狭义货币的变化对收入的短期波动、上期通货膨胀率、上期货币需求的短期波动和ECM敏感,而广义货币需求的波动在短期仅受收入的短期波动和通货膨胀率的影响.     

外汇市场、股票市场及预期通货膨胀对货币需求的影响

本文利用2005年7月到2012年12月的月度数据,使用菲利普斯—奥肯曲线计算预期通货膨胀率,将汇率、股票市场以及预期通货膨胀率纳入货币需求函数模型,通过协整检验、VEC模型以及VAR模型,研究了汇率、股市以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响,结果发现汇率、股市收益率以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响具有统计显著性,但是影响程度很小。     

外汇市场、股票市场及预期退货膨胀对货币需求的影响

本文利用2005年7月到2012年12月的月度数据,使用菲利普斯-奥肯曲线计算预期通货膨胀率,将汇率、股票市场以及预期通货膨胀率纳入货币需求函数模型,通过协整检验、VEC模型以及VAR模型,研究了汇率、股市以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响,结果发现汇率、股市收益率以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响具有统计显著性,但是影响程度很小。     

对我国货币替代成因的实证分析

目前中国的货币替代现状并不严重,且处于隐性状态。但随着中国对外开放进程的加快,货币替代对中国金融稳定的影响问题不能不引起警觉。通过对货币替代影响因素的分析,提供反货币替代的政策性建议。     

论美元特权支撑美国经济高速增长

汇率是一种货币用另一种货币表示的价格，是一国货币与他国货币的兑换比率，汇率变动影响本国产品在进口国的贵贱，影响本国进出口和国际收支的平衡，影响本国经济和金融的安全，理论汇率决定于两国货币价格量之比，实际汇率决定于外汇市场的供求，国际收支是影响汇率的主要因素，国际收支发生顺差，表明本币供不应求，一般会引起本币汇率上升，本国利率高于另一国利率，引起短期资金流向本国，一般导致本国货币汇率上升，本国通货膨胀率上升，本币汇率一般下降，汇率变动还受到各国中央银行的干预、市场预期心理、投机资本和政治与突发性因素的影响。     

基于Lasso方法的人民币汇率影响因素分析

人民币汇率受众多因素影响,本文选取主要影响人民币汇率的7个因素,分别是GDP增长率、进出口增长率、货币供应量增长率、外汇储备增长率、中美相对消费价格指数、通货膨胀率和中美利差。利用变量选择方法——Lasso对人民币汇率影响因素进行有效选择,调用R中的Lars包进行运算,结果表明,Lasso能较好的进行变量选择,消除共线性。     

Inflation and openness in India: an asymmetric approach

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between inflation and openness from 1970 to 2014 in the Indian context. In the first of its kind, this paper investigates the relationship within a nonlinear framework by employing NARDL cointegration test due to Shin, Yu, and Greenwood Nimmo (2014). The empirical results show that there is asymmetry in the relationship between openness and inflation both in short-run as well as in long-run. However, overall a positive relation (though weak) holds between inflation and openness and hence refutes well known Romer (1993) hypothesis that inflation falls with openness. The results further showed a positive relation between inflation and other variables in the study. The overall response of inflation towards the positive and negative changes in explanatory variables differed significantly.     

Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Regimes

The paper evaluates the net welfare gains of inflation targeting over a fixed exchange rate as a function of a country's trade openness, using a multisectoral structural model calibrated to Chile. For most calibrations with separable preferences, net welfare gains are increasing in trade openness. The reason is that in more open economies terms of trade shocks, which favor inflation targeting, become quantitatively more important, while price markup shocks in the imperfectly competitive nontradables sector, which favor exchange rate targeting, become less important. The most important exception is heavily indebted countries, where net welfare gains are decreasing in trade openness.     

Openness, the sacrifice ratio, and inflation: Is there a puzzle?

The standard time-inconsistency-based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness, but Daniels et al. (2005, Openness, central bank independence, and the sacrifice ratio. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37 (2), 371–379.) have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship. This paper embeds the time-inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector, imperfectly competitive, open economy. In this setting, greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias. Thus, failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio does not necessarily imply that the time-inconsistency approach is irrelevant to understanding the openness–inflation relationship.     

The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.     

Country world betas: The link between the stock market beta and macroeconomic beta

We assess the connection between stock market linkages and macroeconomic linkages by using a world index model. Specifically, we test the association between the stock market beta (the sensitivity of country stock market index to world index) and macroeconomic betas (the sensitivity of national output and inflation to world output and inflation). Output betas account for about 20–26% of the cross-section of stock market betas. Controlling for previously-documented factors affecting stock market comovements: world output volatility is somewhat significant, while inflation betas, trade openness and world stock market volatility are insignificant in accounting for variation in stock market betas.     

The International Dimension of Inflation: Evidence from Disaggregated Consumer Price Data

We estimate the contribution of international common factors to the dynamics of price inflation rates of a cross-section of 948 CPI products in four OECD countries: United States, Germany, France, and United Kingdom. We find two main results. First, on average, and at least in the sample 1991–2004, one international common factor explains between 15% and 30% of the variance of consumer prices (depending on the transformation applied to the data). Given the high level of disaggregation of our panel, this estimate is best viewed as a lower bound for the contribution of international factors to inflation dynamics. Second, we find a strongly positive and statistically significant relationship between exposure of consumer inflation to international shocks and trade openness at the sectoral level. The latter result holds regardless of whether the original data are expressed in local as opposed to common currency.     

Trade openness and inflation: The role of real and nominal price rigidities

The paper revisits the long-standing question of the impact of trade openness on the inflation–output trade-off by accounting for the effects of product market competition on price flexibility. The study develops a New-Keynesian open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with non-constant price elasticity of demand and Calvo price setting in which the frequency of price adjustment is endogenously determined. It demonstrates that trade openness has two opposing effects on the sensitivity of inflation to output fluctuations. On the one hand, it raises strategic complementarity in firms' pricing decisions and the degree of real price rigidities, which makes inflation less responsive to changes in real marginal cost. On the other hand, it strengthens firms' incentives to adjust their prices, thereby reducing the degree of nominal price rigidities and increasing the sensitivity of inflation to changes in marginal cost. The study explains the positive relationship between competition and the frequency of price adjustment observed in the data. It also provides new insights into the effects of global economic integration on the Phillips Curve.     

Macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in an emerging market: fresh evidence from cointegration with unknown structural breaks

This article explores the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in an emerging market (Pakistan) over the period of 1974–2010. We have applied Zivot–Andrews unit root test for integrating properties of the variables and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing for cointegration. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by applying the vector error-correction model Granger causality approach. Our results revealed that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. Economic growth, inflation, financial development and investment increase stock market development, but trade openness decreases it. The causality analysis confirms that stock market development is a Granger cause of economic growth, inflation, financial development, investment and trade openness. This article indicates the importance of trade openness while formulating a comprehensive financial policy.     

Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting

Adopting a single instead of multiple targets can be an effective way to overcome the classic time‐inconsistency problem. The choice of a single mandate depends on the trade openness and the credibility. Reduced‐form empirical results show as central banks become less credible, they are more likely to adopt a pegged exchange rate, and the tendency to peg depends on trade openness. In a model with “loose commitment,” as credibility falls, either an inflation target or a pegged exchange rate is more likely to be adopted. A relatively closed (highly open) economy would adopt an inflation target (exchange rate peg).     

Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?

This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001–2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks. Countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes, however, appears modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock. The evidence suggests that trade openness, financial development, dollarization, and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks.