城镇化视角下财政社会保障支出结构变化研究

社会保障支出一直是我国财政支出重要的组成部分,它对经济的稳定发展以及民生建设都有积极的推动作用。党的十八大最新提出的“中国梦”中,城镇化建设依旧是我国宏观经济发展的重要战略,在这一大的政策背景下,社会保障支出结构也因城镇化改革不断推进发生了变化,本文选取1998—2010年全国社会保障支出在各个项目中的具体数据,通过分析数据比例结构来探讨城镇化对社会保障财政支出结构变化的影响,并由此提出未来政策导向建议。     

农村社会保障支出对农村居民消费的影响的实证研究

从社会保障对居民消费影响机制的微观基础出发,运用协整分析并建立向量误差修正模型对我国农村社会保障支出的消费效应进行了实证研究.结果表明,我国农村社会保障支出没有对农村居民消费支出产生促进作用.因此,应加快农村社会保障制度的改革,促进农村居民消费,拉动内需.     

财政社会保障支出经济增长效应区域差异——来自中国省级面板数据的实证

基于1998-2013年我国省级面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计法(SYSGMM),实证分析了财政社会保障支出经济增长效应区域差异和财政社会保障支出区域差异的影响因素。研究结果表明:财政社会保障支出经济增长效应区域差异显著。财政社会保障支出对我国东部和中部地区具有显著正向影响,而对西部地区则不显著。不同地区财政社会保障支出明显与地方投资行为、政府行为以及财政能力等因素有关,而与经济增长率、经济发展水平和老龄化水平关系不大。这在一定程度上说明需要关注财政社会保障支出增长的适度性,以及建立正常的财政社会保障支出增长机制的必要性。     

我国社会保障支出与金融结构变迁关系的实证研究

本文利用中国1992-2011年间的时间序列和协整分析方法,实证考察了我国社会保障支出对金融结构变迁的影响效果。结果显示社会保障支出显著地影响金融结构的变迁,不断增加的社会保障支出能够显著地提升股票、债券、保险等非货币资产在金融机构总资产中的占比;社会保障支出是引起股票资产占比、债券资产占比、保险资产占比的格兰杰原因,反之,股票资产占比、债券资产占比、保险资产占比不是引起社会保障支出变动的格兰杰原因。     

中国失业保险支出水平的测度模型与实证分析

中国失业保险制度应该保持合理的支出水平,衡量标准主要看其是否为失业者提供了适度的收入保障以及是否对就业起到积极的促进作用。本文建立了测量失业保险支出水平的数理模型,根据国外典型国家的经验数据大体确定了失业保险支出水平的适度界限,并对中国现实的失业保险支出水平及其影响因素进行了分析,最后提出了完善失业保险制度以及合理提高失业保险支出水平的政策建议。     

French planning in the 1980s : A political agenda

Planners and policy makers can no longer rely on the assumptions that have stood them in good stead for the past two decades. The decline in birth rates, the growth of structural unemployment, the middle-class revolt against further taxation, and the emergence of quality of life issues will force a reappraisal of these assumptions. New methods will be needed to cope with the wider boundaries of social planning.     

Going public in the 1980s: Evidence from Sweden

The paper explores the going public decision in a sample of family-owned corporations in Sweden, 1970–1991. the issuers' motivations for going public are documented and contrasted with economic theory. We find that the average firm is old, that a significant portion of the shares are sold by existing shareholders, that most going public activity took place after an exceptionally sharp stock price increase, and that going public activity is not related to the business cycle. the findings suggest that firms were taken public by their owners who wanted to liquidate their investment to finance consumption or portfolio diversification. the findings strike the common view that firms go public to finance growth. Data from other European countries exhibit similar patterns and suggest that our findings for Sweden may extend to other markets as well.     

Why effective spreads on NASDAQ were higher than on the New York stock exchange in the 1990s

Two hypotheses have been advanced to explain why spreads on NASDAQ were substantially higher than those on the NYSE in the 1990s: “collusion” and “preferencing and payment for order flow.” We present data on all actively traded stocks in these markets of relative effective spreads (RES), aggregated monthly over 1987–1999 and advance a third hypothesis: NASDAQ “SOES-day-trading.” We estimate NASDAQ and NYSE informed-trade losses and gains to market makers and other liquidity providers on six trade sizes, and find that losses on trades we ascribe to SOES day traders were substantially greater than those on other trades, offset somewhat by gains from small-trade-size investors. NASDAQ market makers' response to these losses and additional operations costs incurred to reduce the losses resulted in greater RES and increased trading within the best quotes, predominantly on larger trade sizes. The data are consistent with the “SOES-day-trading” hypotheses, but not with the other two. Furthermore, the mandatory SOES “experiment” provides insights into the negative effects of automated trading systems (such as ECNs, which now dominate NASDAQ) when their design does not adequately consider opportunistic traders.     

Income Inequality and Living Standards: Changes in the 1970s and 1980s

‘This country has the highest standard of living that it has ever known … Real incomes have increased throughout all income groups.’ Margaret Thatcher (Weekly Hansard, 27 April 1989, cols 1087–8) ‘While the very rich have lost some of their riches to the less rich, over time, the poor have hardly profited proportionately.’ Neil Kinnock (The Future of Socialism, Fabian Tract no. 506, January 1986)     

社会保障税:优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择

由于我国社会保险面临转轨成本、资金缺口和人口老龄化等三重压力,因此,通过依照职工工资总额征收养老保险金、失业保险金、医疗保险金、工伤保险金及生育保险金的方式所筹集的社会保障基金难以满足支出的需求。建议尽快由依靠企业统筹社会保障基金收费过渡到依靠税务机关征收社会保障税,以法律手段取代行政手段。这既是建立稳定的社会保障基金筹资机制、保证社会保障基金稳定来源的必需,也是适应社会主义市场经济发展需要、优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择。     

Work and nonwork : Europe in the 1980s and beyond

Through an understanding of major trends in employment, unemployment and informal work and in patterns of life, possible alternative futures in work and nonwork may be identified. Communications and information technologies (IT) may themselves transform the recent transformations in work and nonwork, and already disadvantaged groups may further suffer unless fully involved in the policy processes relating to IT and its products.     

基于希腊主权债务危机的危机预警研究——兼对社会保障支出比重的定量分析

为了研究债务危机的成因及其预警机制,本文在对希腊主权债务危机演变进行描述性分析的基础上,建立了债务危机预警的Logistic模型.通过SPSS18.0统计软件分析,我们发现了影响债务危机发生的主要指标,包括:一般政府净贷款占GDP比率、国际收支占GDP比率以及社会保障支出占GDP比率、总储蓄规模占GDP比率以及通货膨胀率.其中,所选取的欧洲国家的社会保障支出占GDP的比重约为25％,对于债务危机的爆发的影响系数高达0.620.结合我国的经济形势与社会保障发展现状,本文了提出相关的政策建议.     

The Status of Social Security and Its Role in Retirement Planning: A Professional Advisor's Perspective

Currently, one of the more salient retirement debates surrounds the future insolvency of the Social Security retirement system. In spite of the important role that financial planning professionals play in the retirement and private-savings decisions that individuals make, no research has focused on assessing the opinions of this group. This study uses a survey approach to assess the opinions of financial planning professionals regarding the problems faced by the Social Security retirement system, the solutions that have been proposed thus far, and the use of Social Security benefits in the financial planning process.     

全国社会保障基金发展的问题与展望

从2001年建立初至今,尽管全国社会保障基金规模稳步增长、投资收益水平逐步提高、管理体制和治理结构不断完善,但也还存在着规模较低、投资限定过严、资金来源缺乏稳定性等一些问题,并且未来发展方向也不尽明确。上述问题的解决对于全国社会保障基金的进一步发展具有重要的作用和意义。     

为什么贫困有一张女性的面孔——国际视野下的“贫困女性化”及其政策

女性贫困是世界各国普遍存在的一个社会问题。本文追溯"贫困女性化"的研究缘起,从国际上视野对贫困女性化的社会结构性因素进行了归纳和分析,总结了发达国家缓解和应对贫困女性化的主要政策措施。     

我国社会保险费改税应分别设计

在探索如何进一步完善社会主义市场经济转型时期的社会保障体系以保证社会稳定持续的发展的过程中，有关社保基金筹集方式——即缴费式与缴税式的争论异常激烈。针对我国现行的“社会统筹与个人账户相结合”的社会保障制度模式，笔者认为杜保基金筹集方式也应相应地实行社会统筹的资金以社会保险税方式筹集，个人账户部分资金以缴费方式筹集的“税费结合”模式。     

Social Security reform: the effect of investing in equities

Several proposals have been developed to reform the Social Security System to ensure that it is fully funded. The investment of a portion of Social Security funds in equities has often been proposed as a means to avoid increasing payroll taxes. This paper develops a general equilibrium model to demonstrate that investing Social Security funds in equities will decrease the return on equities and increase interest rates on bonds, which also leads to an increase in general income taxes. Thus, investing Social Security funds in equities simply shifts a potential increase in payroll taxes to an increase in income taxes.     

Changes in Expected Security Returns,Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates

Regressions of security returns on treasury bill rates provide insight about the behavior of risk in rational asset pricing models. The information in one-month bill rates implies time variation in the conditional covariances of portfolios of stocks and fixed-income securities with benchmark pricing variables, over extended samples and within five-year subperiods. There is evidence of changes in conditional “betas” associated with interest rates. Consumption and stock market data are examined as proxies for marginal utility, in a general framework for asset pricing with time-varying conditional covariances.