Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?

This paper examines the relative risk of good-news firms, i.e., those with high standardized unexpected earnings (SUE), and bad-news (low SUE) firms using a stochastic discount factor approach. We find that a stochastic discount factor constructed from a set of basis assets helps explain post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). The risk exposures on the pricing kernel increase monotonically from the lowest to highest SUE sorted portfolios. Specifically, good-news firms always have higher risk exposures than bad-news firms in both 10 SUE sorted portfolios and 25 size and SUE sorted portfolios. However, the estimated expected risk premium is too small to explain the observed magnitude of returns on the PEAD strategy. Our risk adjustment can explain only about one-fourth of the total magnitude of the average realized return to the PEAD strategy. As a result, the average risk-adjusted returns of earnings momentum strategies are mostly positive and significant. Overall, our results support the view that at least some portion of the returns to the earnings momentum strategies examined represent compensation for bearing increased risk.     

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF BETA STABILITY: PORTFOLIOS VS. INDIVIDUAL SECURITIES

The concept that portfolio betas are more stable than betas for individual securities has become the 'conventional wisdom' in finance; statements to this effect may be found in many popular finance textbooks. The objective of this paper is to challenge the conventional wisdom. A random sample of individual stock returns and portfolio returns is used to compare the empirical distribution of beta shifts for individual firms and portfolios. The number of statistically significant changes in beta are no greater for individual securities than for portfolios.     

Does Order Flow Commonality Extend Across Trade Sizes and Securities?

We examine commonality in order imbalances across different types of securities and find that the extent of commonality is greater than previously documented. Order imbalances in portfolios of small stocks, large stocks, and closed-end funds have explanatory power for other portfolio returns even in the presence of own order flow. Our analysis of order flow composition reveals commonality in small and medium trades, but not in large trades, across portfolios. The activity from small-size trades is systemic, but not generally associated with returns on other securities. Order imbalances from larger size trades provide more information relevant to stock prices.     

Can value-based stock selection criteria yield superior risk-adjusted returns: an application of neural networks

This study examines whether superior investment returns can be earned by using neural network modeling procedures to perform forecasts based on a set of financial ratios reflecting traditional value based investment strategies. The study covers a 20-year period. We find that the value ratio provides useful information that permits the selection of portfolios that provide investment returns superior to the DJIA and the S&P 500, and a group of randomly selected securities. The risk-adjusted returns for the portfolios selected by the neural network are greater than those achieved using other forecasting methods.     

Are the gains from international portfolio diversification exaggerated? The influence of downside risk in bear markets

The fundamental rationale for international portfolio diversification is that it expands the opportunities for gains from portfolio diversification beyond those that are available through domestic securities. However, if international stock market correlations are higher than normal in bear markets, then international diversification will fail to yield the promised gains just when they are needed most. We evaluate the extent to which observed correlations to monthly returns in bear, calm and bull markets are captured by three popular bivariate distributions: (1) the normal, (2) the restricted GARCH(1,1) of J. P. Morgan’s RiskMetrics, and (3) the Student-t with four degrees of freedom. Observed correlations during calm and bull markets are unexceptional compared to these models. In contrast, observed correlations during bear markets are significantly higher than predicted. Higher-than-normal correlations during extreme market downturns result in monthly returns to equal-weighted portfolios of domestic and international stocks that are, on average, more than two percent lower than those predicted by the normal distribution. If the extent of non-normality during bear markets persists over time, then a US investor allocating assets into foreign markets might want to allocate more assets into foreign markets with near-normal correlation profiles and avoid markets with higher-than-normal bear market co-movements.     

Funding conditions and insurance stock returns: Do insurance stocks really benefit from rising interest rate regimes?

We examine funding conditions and U.S. insurance company stock returns. Although constrained funding conditions, signaled by restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy, correspond with increases in the future payouts of fixed‐income securities held by insurance firms and potentially provide value through the liability side of insurer balance sheets, they also decrease the values of securities currently held in insurer portfolios. Prior research finds that restrictive policy has a negative effect on equity returns in general. Our results suggest the negative impacts of constrained funding environments outweigh the potential positives, as insurance company stock returns are significantly lower during periods of constrained funding. This effect varies within a given funding state and also across insurer type. The effect is strongest during the first 3 months of a constrained funding environment and for life and health insurers—insurer types with longer portfolio durations. For property and liability (P&L) insurers, lower stock return performance only exists in the first 3 months of a constrained funding environment. In the subsequent months, P&L insurers actually have higher stock returns during constrained periods, consistent with their typically shorter duration asset portfolios, which are more quickly rolled over into new higher‐yielding securities.     

Implications of Transaction Costs for the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift

This paper examines the effect of transaction costs on the post–earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Using standard market microstructure features we show that transaction costs constrain the informed trades that are necessary to incorporate earnings information into price. This implies weaker return responses at the time of the earnings announcement and higher subsequent returns drift for firms with higher transaction costs. Consistent with this prediction, we find that earnings response coefficients are lower for firms with higher transaction costs. Using portfolio analyses, we find that the profits of implementing the PEAD trading strategy are significantly reduced by transaction costs. In addition, we show, using a combination of portfolio and regression analyses, that firms with higher transaction costs are the ones that provide the higher abnormal returns for the PEAD strategy. Our results indicate that transaction costs can provide an explanation not only for the persistence but also for the existence of PEAD.     

Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns

This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of “value ambiguity,” or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that (1) on average, high-IU firms earn lower future returns (the “mean” effect), and (2) price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high-IU firms (the “interaction” effect). These findings are consistent with analytical models in which high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Asymmetric mean-reversion and contrarian profits: ANST-GARCH approach

This paper investigates the time-series evidence of asymmetric reverting patterns in stock returns that is attributable to “contrarian profitability.” Using asymmetric nonlinear smooth-transition (ANST) GARCH(M) models, we find that, for monthly excess returns of US market indexes over the period of 1926:01–1997:12, negative returns on average reverted more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, to positive returns than positive returns revert to negative returns. The results are quite consistent when the models are implemented not only for the different sample periods, such as 1926:01–1987:09 and 1947:01–1997:12, but also for portfolios with different characteristics, such as different firm-size portfolios and Fama–French risk-adjusted factor portfolios. We interpret the asymmetrical reversion as evidence of stock market overreaction.     

Tainted portfolios: How impairment accounting rules restrict security sales

Contrary to claims that fair value accounting exacerbated banks’ securities sales during the recent financial crisis, we present evidence that suggests – if anything – that the current impairment accounting rules served as a deterrent to selling. Specifically, because banks must provide evidence of their ‘intent and ability’ to hold securities with unrealized losses, there are strong incentives to reduce, rather than increase, security sales when market values decline to avoid ‘tainting’ their remaining securities portfolio. Validating this concern, we find that banks incur greater other‐than‐temporary impairment (OTTI) charges when they sell more securities. We then find that banks sell fewer securities when their security portfolios have larger unrealized losses (and thus larger potential impairment charges), and these results are concentrated in banks with homogenous securities portfolios, expert auditors, more experienced managers, and greater regulatory capital slack. Overall, our results suggest that – contrary to critics’ claims – the accounting rules appear to have reduced banks’ propensity to sell their securities during the financial crisis.     

Changes in Expected Security Returns,Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates

Regressions of security returns on treasury bill rates provide insight about the behavior of risk in rational asset pricing models. The information in one-month bill rates implies time variation in the conditional covariances of portfolios of stocks and fixed-income securities with benchmark pricing variables, over extended samples and within five-year subperiods. There is evidence of changes in conditional “betas” associated with interest rates. Consumption and stock market data are examined as proxies for marginal utility, in a general framework for asset pricing with time-varying conditional covariances.     

THE CROSS-AUTOCORRELATION OF SIZE-BASED PORTFOLIO RETURNS IS NOT AN ARTIFACT OF PORTFOLIO AUTOCORRELATION

Prior studies find evidence of asymmetric size-based portfolio return cross-autocorrelations where lagged large firm returns lead current small firm returns. However, some studies question whether this economic relation is independent of the effect of portfolio return autocorrelation. We formally test for this independence using size-based portfolios of New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange securities and, separately, portfolios of Nasdaq securities. Results from causality regressions indicate that, across all markets, lagged large firm returns predict current small firm returns, even after controlling for autocorrelation in small firm returns. These cross-autocorrelation patterns are stronger for Nasdaq securities.     

Does voluntary balance sheet disclosure mitigate post-earnings-announcement drift?

Theory suggests that balance sheet information such as total assets, total equity, or total liabilities complements earnings information in helping investors assess a firm’s profitability and estimate earnings growth. The voluntary disclosure of balance sheet information at earnings announcement could help investors gather and process this information at a lower cost. We therefore predict that voluntary balance sheet disclosure at the time of an earnings announcement helps investors promptly understand the implication of current earnings news for future earnings and subsequently reduces post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). Consistent with these predictions, our results show that when firms provide voluntary balance sheet disclosures, the earnings response coefficient in the event window is significantly higher and the corresponding PEAD is significantly lower. We further find that the impact of voluntary balance sheet disclosure on PEAD is more pronounced when the magnitude of balance sheet value surprise is larger, when balance sheet value is more informative about future earnings, when earnings uncertainty is higher, or when information cost is higher, consistent with our conjectures that helping investors to better understand future earnings performance and lowering information costs are key mechanisms underlying the effect of voluntary balance sheet disclosure on PEAD.     

On the Number of Factors in the Arbitrage Pricing Model

Recent theory has demonstrated that the Arbitrage Pricing Model with K factors critically depends on whether K eigenvalues dominate the covariance matrix of returns as the number of securities grows large. The purpose of this paper is to test whether sample covariance matrices can be characterized as having K large eigenvalues. Using all available data on the 1983 CRSP tapes, we compute sample covariance matrices of returns in sequentially larger portfolios of securities. Analyzing their eigenvalues, we find evidence that one eigenvalue dominates the covariance matrix indicating that a one-factor model may describe security pricing. We also find that, for values of K larger than one, there is no obvious way to choose the number of factors. Nevertheless, we find that while only the first eigenvalue dominates the matrix, the first five eigenvalues are growing more distinct.     

Earnings Volatility,Post–Earnings Announcement Drift,and Trading Frictions

We find that lower ex ante earnings volatility leads to higher Post–Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). PEAD is a function of both the magnitude of an earnings surprise and its persistence. While prior research has largely investigated market reactions to the magnitude of the earnings surprise, in this study we show that the persistence of the earnings surprise is equally important. A unique feature of the anomalous PEAD returns documented here concerns the association between abnormal returns and trading frictions. Besides demonstrating that firms with lower earnings volatility have higher abnormal returns, we also find that lower earnings volatility firms have lower trading frictions. Taken together, these findings imply that higher abnormal returns are associated with lower trading frictions. We exploit this implication to empirically demonstrate that PEAD returns due to earnings volatility are not concentrated in the firms with the largest trading frictions, which is in contrast to the findings in prior anomaly studies.     

A relaxation algorithm for building undominated portfolios

Stochastic dominance methods which have been developed in recent years are generally more valid than mean-variance (EV) and higher moment methods for selecting a portfolio from a given finite set of possible portfolios. One of the limitations of these methods is the lack of procedures for building portfolios from a given set of securities and the probability distribution of their returns. Markowitz has developed an algorithm based on the restriction method in linear programming to build undominated portfolios. In this paper a more efficient method based on the relaxation method of linear programming is developed and tested for efficiency. Computational results justify its use as a practical tool for portfolio building.     

Empirical Evidence of the Existence of Investable Premiums in Emerging Market Investable Stocks

This paper shows that portfolios of more investable securities bear a premium when compared to portfolios of less investable stocks, reflecting compensation for local risk factors. The investable premium is overwhelmingly priced across 3,782 companies traded in 29 emerging markets from 1988 to 2006. The investable premium impacts stock returns at least as much as other fundamental premiums such as size, value, momentum, and loads on political, economic, and financial risk factors. The impact of the investable premium on emerging stocks returns has increased in strength, implying that foreign ownership has greater influence on local markets in recent years.     

Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk

This paper investigates the components of liquidity risk that are important for understanding asset-pricing anomalies. Firm-level liquidity is decomposed into variable and fixed price effects and estimated using intraday data for the period 1983–2001. Unexpected systematic (market-wide) variations of the variable component rather than the fixed component of liquidity are shown to be priced within the context of momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) portfolio returns. As the variable component is typically associated with private information [e.g., Kyle, 1985. Econometrica 53, 1315–1335], the results suggest that a substantial part of momentum and PEAD returns can be viewed as compensation for the unexpected variations in the aggregate ratio of informed traders to noise traders.     

ESG,time horizons,risks and stock returns

Investment time horizon is an important part of significance of ESG factors. This research examines the role of ESG factors in returns and risks in short- and medium-term investment periods. It compares (a) the returns and risks of ESG portfolios between before scoring and after scoring, and (b) the returns and risks between ESG portfolios and their peers.The main results suggest that after scoring most short-term ESG portfolios have similar returns, but lower risks than before scoring. The returns of ESG portfolios are similar to those of nonESG portfolios for both short- and medium-term. There are more ESG portfolios, whose risks are different from nonESG portfolios, in the short-term investment than in the medium-term.ESG factors therefore play a greater role in risks than in returns, and in the short-term than in the medium-term. Additionally, the role of ESG factors in risks varies from industry to industry.     

Government Bond Returns,Measurement of Interest Rate Risk,and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Empirical tests are reported for Ross' arbitrage pricing theory using monthly data for U.S. Treasury securities during the 1960–1979 period. We find that mean returns on bond portfolios are linearly related to at least two factor loadings. Multivariate test results, however, are not consistent with the APT. Our sample data in the U.S. Treasury securities market are also not consistent with either version of the CAPM. One-month-ahead forecasts of excess returns using factor-generating models are compared with corresponding naive predictions or predictions using the “market model” with various market portfolios.