Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios

Default, loss severity, and average loss rates for a large sample of privately placed bonds are presented and compared with loss experience for publicly issued bonds. The chance of very large portfolio losses is estimated and some determinants of such losses are analyzed. Results show ex ante riskier classes of private debt perform better on average than public debt. Both diversification and the riskiness of individual portfolio assets influence the bad tail of the portfolio loss distribution. Private placements are similar to corporate loans in that both are monitored private debt. The results are thus relevant to management and securitization of private debt portfolios generally.     

ESG,Material Credit Events,and Credit Risk

A growing body of research has extended the analysis of the materiality of ESG criteria from the perspective of equity investors to creditors. Past research and analysis have demonstrated the link between better management of ESG criteria and better management of risk overall. Despite this growing consensus and consistent evidence that ESG performance is correlated with credit risk, no empirical evidence has yet linked ESG performance to cost or expense variances or revenue shortfalls that could explain these correlations. The authors attempt to address this lack of mechanism‐based empirical evidence by citing and then building on a number of well‐publicized cases with analysis of two major ESG issues—indigenous land claims and biodiversity—as they affect the global project finance and agriculture sectors. Broadening these single‐sector results, the authors use a novel dataset providing systematic coding of material events reported in the media across a variety of empirical settings to produce the first large‐sample empirical evidence of the mechanisms linking ESG performance to credit risk.     

非零售类风险暴露信用风险模型的校准和主标尺开发

模型校准是将模型输出结果对应到真实的违约概率。本研究通过一个以违约概率为度量标准的主标尺,映射得到风险等级的过程。该过程引入了所有资产组合风险量化的统一标准。模型的校准和主标尺的设计开发是一个过程中相互联系的两个步骤,该过程受不同条件的约束,是一个多目标优化的问题。本文主要阐述了主标尺开发和模型校准的方法。     

A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios

We explore a simplified version of the value-at-risk approximation developed by Pykhtin (Risk Magazine, March, 85–90, 2004), which only requires risk parameters on a sector level. We measure the impact of credit concentrations in business sectors on the economic capital of credit portfolios. We base our portfolios’ sector composition on credit information from the German central credit register. Our results show that the approximation formula performs well for fine-grained portfolios that are homogeneous on a sector level in terms of probability of default (PD) and exposure size. We explore the robustness of our results for portfolios which are heterogeneous in terms of these two characteristics. We find that low granularity ceteris paribus causes the approximation formula to underestimate economic capital, whereas heterogeneity in individual PDs causes overestimation. Indicative results imply that in typical credit portfolios of banks, PD heterogeneity will at least compensate for the granularity effect. This result suggests that the approximation estimates economic capital reasonably well and/or errs on the conservative side.     

Risk-Based Capital and Credit Insurance Portfolios

This paper analyzes the risk-management practices of a vulnerable credit insurer by studying the effects of time-varying correlations, asset risks and loan maturities on the risk-based capital that backs credit insurance portfolios. Since asset correlations may change over a business cycle, we have analyzed these effects by means of a one-factor Gaussian stochastic model as part of an extended contingent claims analysis. Our results show the need to account for cyclical changes to correlations in the pricing of credit insurance. When compared with the reserve of risk-based capital recommended by the Basel II Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, our model provides a better capital buffer against extreme credit losses, especially in times of recession and/or in a risky business environment. Using a risk-adjusted performance metric (RAPM), we find insurers perform better when insuring relatively short-term loans. We also make several policy recommendations on creating a reserve of risk-based capital to protect against possible loan losses.     

A Value-At-Risk Calculation of Required Reserves for Credit Risk in Corporate Lending Portfolios

This paper demonstrates that the building blocks of the insurance process, under similar assumptions, produce identical results to the option-pricing approach in the case of pricing individual loans. We examine the performance of a collective of such building blocks, using portfolio historical performance to endogenously parameterize the default cost function unique to a particular portfolio. Having estimated the appropriate default cost function, we can then specify the reserve requirement for a bank operating such a portfolio. In this respect, the additivity of the Poisson parameter is a powerful feature, allowing one to decompose portfolio performance over time and homogeneous portfolio subsections. Portfolios with greater and lesser risk and profitability respectively are hypothesized, and a capital adequacy framework which equates risk across such portfolios is examined. Finally, we simulate the operation of the proposed capital adequacy model. Observed insolvencies are fewer than those observable under present regulation, and specific problems may be identified earlier than at present.     

Optimal Portfolios with Credit Default Swaps

Using a continuous-time, stochastic, and dynamic framework, this study derives a closed-form solution for the optimal investment problem for an agent with hyperbolic absolute risk aversion preferences for maximising the expected utility of his or her final wealth. The agent invests in a frictionless, complete market in which a riskless asset, a (defaultable) bond, and a credit default swap written on the bond are listed. The model is calibrated to market data of six European countries and assesses the behaviour of an investor exposed to different levels of sovereign risk. A numerical analysis shows that it is optimal to issue credit default swaps in a larger quantity than that of bonds, which are optimally purchased. This speculative strategy is more aggressive in countries characterised by higher sovereign risk. This result is confirmed when the investor is endowed with a different level of risk aversion. Finally, we solve a static version of the optimisation problem and show that the speculative/hedging strategy is definitely different with respect to the dynamic one.     

银行信贷风险的源头分析及其防止

信贷风险的源头在哪里?在客户.客户的风险在哪里?在市场.在人们千变万化千差万别的个性化需求、在日新月异的科学技术.要防止信贷风险,必须采取举措从源头防起.     

对产业集群的信贷风险分析与控制

本文通过对产业集群潜在风险及案例分析,剖析银行对产业集群贷款的风险特征与分析方法,指引商业银行把握对产业集群的贷款政策,探究规避风险的措施。文章认为,如果银行对产业集群的风险状况不能很好把握,盲目投放贷款,无异于高风险的聚集。因此,商业银行应从把握贷款规模,限制授信总量;根据产业集群生命周期把握贷款投放期限,有效进行结构调整;严密监控,严防地区性金融风险等方面规避和防范这类风险。     

Time-varying Beta Risk for Australian Industry Portfolios: An Exploratory Analysis

The central focus of this paper is to provide an initial exploratory examination of ex post time-varying beta estimation, modeling and asset pricing tests. In particular, these issues are investigated using a sample of monthly data on Australian industry portfolios over the nineteen-year period 1974 to 1992. While primarily illustrative in nature, the industry betas are modeled, estimated and tested with reasonable success in terms of regimes related to periods of regulation/deregulation/imputation; the level of market returns; and a measure of volatility on the risk-free rate of interest. However, univariate and multivariate tests reported in the paper provided mixed evidence concerning the applicability of a time-varying beta CAPM, that incorporates these variables.     

基于迁移矩阵的信贷风险分析

本文借鉴了马尔可夫链的统计原理,在商业银行评级体系的基础上,利用大量实际数据,统计得到不同年份多年度信用等级迁移矩阵,也得到分行业、分地区的信用迁移矩阵。在对矩阵进行深入分析的基础上,为商业银行利用迁移矩阵进行风险管理提出了有益的建议。     

Affine Models for Credit Risk Analysis

Continuous-time affine models have been recently introducedin the theoretical financial literature on credit risk. Theyprovide a coherent modeling, rather easy to implement, but havenot yet encountered the expected success among practitionersand regulators. This is likely due to a lack of flexibilityof these models, which often implied poor fit, especially comparedto more ad hoc approaches proposed by the industry. The aimof this article is to explain that this lack of flexibilityis mainly due to the continuous-time assumption. We developa discrete-time affine analysis of credit risk, explain howdifferent types of factors can be introduced to capture separatelythe term structure of default correlation, default heterogeneity,correlation between default, and loss-given-default; we alsoexplain why the factor dynamics are less constrained in discretetime and are able to reproduce complicated cycle effects. Thesemodels are finally used to derive a credit-VaR and various decompositionsof the spreads for corporate bonds or first-to-default basket.     

Systematic and Nonsystematic Mortality Risk in Pension Portfolios

We study the effects of nonsystematic and systematic mortality risks on the required initial capital in a pension plan, in the presence of financial risks. We discover that for a pension plan with few members the impact of pooling on the required capital per person is strong, but nonsystematic risk diminishes rapidly as the number of members increases. Systematic mortality risk, on the other hand, is a significant source of risk in a pension portfolio.     

信用衍生品CCP交易风险防范：基于欧美的经验

本轮国际金融危机暴露了信用衍生品市场的一系列问题,引发了一场以信用衍生品中央交易制度为代表的重大改革。然而,中央交易对手（CCP）和集中清算机制在有效降低风险的同时,将更多的风险集中于自身。由此,需要不断加强其自身的系统性风险管理。中央交易对手是指结算过程中介入证券交易买卖双方之间,成为“买方的卖方”和“卖方的买方”的机构。     

Deriving Optimal Portfolios for Hedging Housing Risk

Households that contemplate moving to different cities or trading up/down in the future are exposed to substantial housing risk. In order to mitigate this risk, we derive optimal portfolios using CME housing futures. Housing investment risk is hedged by selling housing futures amounting to the full value of the home. Housing consumption risk is hedged by buying housing futures in each city where the household might move. The size of the hedges depends on the probability of moving, on home values, and on labor income in each region. The hedging demands offset each other when the household intends to live in the same home indefinitely.     

信用风险管理与信用衍生产品

本文首先介绍了信用风险管理的传统方法和度量手段及影响,然后指出其不足之处,并引出信用衍生产品。信用衍生产品主要通过将信用风险从其他风险中剥离出来,转嫁其他机构以达到降低自身的风险的暴露水平,然后再系统地分析各种主要的信用衍生产品的基本原理之上,分析了利用信用衍生产品管理信用风险并说明了意义所在,最后对如何在中国金融市场上应用它提出了几点建议。     

Rollover Risk and Credit Risk

Our model shows that deterioration in debt market liquidity leads to an increase in not only the liquidity premium of corporate bonds but also credit risk. The latter effect originates from firms' debt rollover. When liquidity deterioration causes a firm to suffer losses in rolling over its maturing debt, equity holders bear the losses while maturing debt holders are paid in full. This conflict leads the firm to default at a higher fundamental threshold. Our model demonstrates an intricate interaction between the liquidity premium and default premium and highlights the role of short‐term debt in exacerbating rollover risk.     

消费信贷的风险分析与防范对策

消费信贷在我国是一项新业务,存在着诸多风险,如:流动性风险、法律风险、信用风险、政策性风险、市场风险.因此,商业银行在大力发展消费信贷业务的同时,还应注意加强消费信贷的风险防范,主要对策有:1.实现消费贷款证券化;2.尽快制定和颁布消费信贷法规;3.建立和完善个人信用制度;4.充分发挥政府在消费融资领域中的作用;5.建立和完善消费品二级市场;6.实现消费信贷与保险的有机结合.     

基于违约概率的消费信贷风险分析与度量

提高消费信贷风险管理的技术，有效控制信贷风险已成为我国商业银行在开展消费信贷业务过程中所面临的首要问题。由于消费信贷风险暴露具有一定的时滞性，使得某一时点的不良贷款率不能反映真实的违约水平。本文通过一个偿还能力模型讨论了消费者负债率与消费信贷预期违约率之间的定量关系，并比较了不良贷款率与实际违约率的收益与风险损失，为商业银行消费信贷管理提供了一个新的思路和相应的政策建议。     

Credit Events and the Valuation of Credit Derivatives of Basket Type

Thispaper provides a simple model for valuing a credit derivativewhose payoff depends on the identity (or identities) of the first(or first two) to occur of a given list of credit events, suchas defaults. The joint survival probability of occurrence timesof credit events is formulated in terms of stochastic intensityprocesses under the assumption of conditional independence. Basedon the joint survival probability, we can easily obtain the pricingformulas of such credit derivatives under the risk-neutral valuationframework. When the default intensity processes follow the extendedVasicek model, closed-form solutions of the pricing formulasare given.