Identifying flight fatigue factors: An econometric modeling approach

The paper looks at responses of crewmembers of six Taiwan air carriers who were asked to report their levels of fatigue before takeoff and after landing. Ordinal probit models are employed to estimate three fatigue models for different flight operations and serve as vehicles to investigate flight fatigue factors and identify their relative significance. The top three factors for long haul flights are found to be sleep quality at home, sleep quality on aircraft and “nod-off “experiences; for regional flights, age, extra non-flying tasks on the ground, and experiences of fatigue during flight operations are important; and for domestic flights poor cockpit environment, age, and experiences of fatigue during flight operations are relevant.     

How airlines learn from airline accidents: An empirical study of how attributed errors and performance feedback affect learning from failure

This research examined organizational learning factors by asking whether airlines learn more from internally or externally attributed causes of airline accidents. Our dependent variable, organizational learning, was defined as a decrease in subsequent airline accident rates. To test the moderating effect of performance feedback, we predicted that performance relative to aspiration level would negatively moderate the relationship between the attribution of airline accidents and the subsequent accident rate. Overall, the findings of this research revealed that the greater the proportion of internally attributed causes is, the more likely it is that an airline will learn from its accidents and will experience a lower subsequent accident rate. In addition, our findings regarding the moderating effect of performance feedback showed that airlines performing below their aspiration levels are more likely to learn from internally attributed causes of accidents and will therefore experience a lower subsequent accident rate. We conducted this investigation by collecting data from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database for all of the accidents (accidents and incidents) experienced by U.S. commercial airlines during the 1990–2014 period. Our research findings provide implications for future studies that discuss the factors affecting organizational learning.     

Drivers of airline loyalty: Evidence from the business travelers in China

This paper examines the key factors that determine business traveler loyalty toward full-service airlines in China. Based on literature review and panel interview, ten airline attributes under three categories were derived: (a) operational factors: safety, punctuality, and aircraft; (b) competitive factors: frequency of flights, schedule, frequent flyer program, ticket price, and reputation; and (c) attractive factors: in flight food & drinks and in flight staff service. We surveyed 2000 Chinese business travelers on domestic flights, obtaining 462 usable questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analysis reveals that reputation, in-flight service, frequent flyer program, and aircraft have the greatest influence in driving airline loyalty.     

Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target

We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h.     

Aviation infrastructure performance and airline cost: a statistical cost estimation approach

The relationship between the performance of the US National Airspace System (NAS) and airline costs is examined by estimating airline cost functions that include NAS performance metrics as arguments, using quarterly data for 10 US domestic airlines. Performance metrics that vary by airline and quarter are developed by applying principal component analysis to seven underlying variables, including average delay, delay variance, and the proportion of flights that is cancelled. This analysis reveals that variation in the seven variables can be adequately captured by three or fewer factors, which we term NAS performance factors. If three factors are used, they can be interpretted as “delay”, “variability”, and “disruption”, the latter two of which are merged into a single “irregularity” factor in the two-factor model. Cost function estimation results confirm the anticipated link between NAS performance and airline cost. In the cost models with two and three performance factors, the irregularity and disruption factors are found to have the strongest cost impacts. These results challenge the prevailing assumption that delay reduction is the most important benefit from NAS enhancements. Using the estimated cost models, we predict airline cost savings from substantially improved NAS performance in the range $1–4 billion annually.     

Understanding air travellers' trade-offs between connecting flights and surface access characteristics

This paper reports on a study which seeks to improve our understanding of how people choose between different kinds of flight at competing airports, and how their choices are affected by access conditions. In particular, using stated choice data collected in Scotland, it investigates whether improving surface access to regional airports that are in relatively close proximity to one another (Glasgow and Edinburgh) leads people to avoid taking indirect flights from their nearest airport in favour of direct flights from an alternative airport. In line with expectations, our estimation results from Cross-Nested Logit models show strong aversion to connecting flights, resulting in a willingness to either pay higher fares for direct flights or accept non-trivial increases in access time. For the latter, even without the potential new direct rail link between the two airports, current access times are such that a scenario where direct flights were only available at the non-home airport, a substantial share of passengers would choose to travel from the alternative airport.     

How do carriers price connecting flights? Evidence from intercontinental flights from Europe

In civil aviation, hub-and-spoke (HS) networks are used by all large carriers. The importance of this system implies that many travelers use connecting flights. Nevertheless, only scarce knowledge is available on price formation of these trips. In this paper, we focus on the fares of connecting intercontinental flights, with one stop and at least one competing direct flight. We develop a simple model of a HS network, with imperfect substitutability between direct and indirect flights and Cournot competition on every route in the network. We test the model empirically, using reported fares for flights from seven European origins, including the five major airports in Europe, to five non-European destinations. We find that the fare of a connecting flight can be expressed as the weighted average of the fare of its direct competitor, the travel times of both flights its costs and the monetary value of the utility attached to the trip. The weight of the direct fare decreases as product diversity increases.     

Calculating load factors for the transatlantic airline market using supply and demand data – A note on the identification of gaps in the available airline statistics

This paper takes a critical view of the verification of load factors for the direct transatlantic airline market by combining supply and demand-data. The supply-related data originate from the Official Airline Guide, a well-known data source that contains information on scheduled flights. The demand-related data originate from the Marketing Information Data Transfer database, a data set containing information on actual airline bookings. Combining both data sets enables us to calculate the seat occupancy of direct flights between North-West Europe and the US for 2001. Based on the results, we assess the utility of the joint use of these data sources for aviation economic research, and identify various gaps in the available airline statistics.     

An investigation of air accidents in Nigeria using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework

Increasing air traffic growth has been achieved along with substantial improvement in safety globally. While air traffic is equally growing in Nigeria, safety levels do not appear to be growing side by side. This was gleaned from the spate of accidents and fatalities recorded in the last couple of decades. The study therefore set out to assess safety performance in Nigeria's air transport industry by comparing accidents and fatality rates with global average levels during the period 1985–2008. A content analysis of the accident reports was done using the Human Factors Analysis Classification System (HFACS) as a conceptual framework; this was augmented with results of industry experts assessment of the Nigerian aviation industry. Their assessments were also discussed in the context of the conceptual framework. Accidents and passenger fatality rates in Nigeria were higher than global average figures for most of the years included in the analysis period. Findings on aircraft ages show that these are also higher than world average levels. The aviation industry experts' assessment presented various challenges which include inadequate airport facilities, absence of timely meteorological information and dearth of skilled personnel in Nigeria's aviation industry. The content analysis of the accident reports using the HFACS shows that skill based errors; physical environment and inadequate supervision are the most frequently occurring categories influencing accident occurrences. The Chi-square and Fishers's test used to analyze significant relationships in the HFACS categories obtained in the accident reports showed five pairs of significant associations between adjacent categories. Based on these associations, Supervisory Violations:-Crew Resource Management:- Decision Errors path is deemed the most potent for accident occurrences. Findings from the research point to the need to address personnel skill, physical environment issues (mostly weather related) and supervisory competence.     

A robust mathematical model and heuristic algorithms for integrated aircraft routing and scheduling,with consideration of fleet assignment problem

One of the most important airline's products is to determine the aircraft routing and scheduling and fleet assignment. The key input data of this problem is the traffic forecasting and allocation that forecasts traffic on each flight leg. The complexity of this problem is to define the connecting flights when passengers should change the aircraft to reach the final destination. Moreover, as there exists various types of uncertainties during the flights, finding a solution which is able to absorb these uncertainties is invaluable. In this paper, a new robust mixed integer mathematical model for the integrated aircraft routing and scheduling, with consideration of fleet assignment problem is proposed. Then to find good solutions for large-scale problems in a rational amount of time, a heuristic algorithm based on the Simulated Annealing (SA) is introduced. In addition, some examples are randomly generated and the proposed heuristic algorithm is validated by comparing the results with the optimum solutions. The effects of robust vs non-robust solutions are examined, and finally, a hybrid algorithm is generated which results in more effective solution in comparison with SA, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).     

A community evaluation of Essential Air Services

Because the Essential Air Service (EAS) is a controversial federal program, a debate regarding its rehabilitation options and even its complete termination has been on the political agenda for more than a decade. For the beneficiaries of the program, most notably communities receiving subsidized air services and regional airlines supplying these services, EAS flights increase the accessibility of small and remote communities. For those people defending low government expenditures and free markets, EAS flights are a typical example of public intervention and wasteful government spending. In addition, increasing federal appropriations, rising per passenger subsidies, and the growing number of communities asking for subsidized air services have generated public attention, resulting in calls for improvements to enhance the efficiency of the program. Using Web-based survey data gathered from a pool of 95 city officials representing 56 EAS communities, this study aimed at contributing to the debate by attempting to provide evidence regarding how EAS communities perceived the importance of EAS flights to their communities, how they evaluated the then-current state of EAS flights, how they locally supported EAS flights, and how they assessed the possible rehabilitation options. The results of the survey revealed that EAS communities (1) assigned a high importance to EAS flights but not as high an importance to creating more jobs, improving the quality of education, and improving the quality of health services; (2) believed that the frequency of the flights was at the right level and that the airfares were expensive; (3) undertook marketing efforts to increase awareness of the flights, to attract air carriers to their communities, and to implement market studies for determining the potential of the flights; and (4) did not believe that rehabilitation options, such as employing alternative transportation modes, using smaller aircrafts, and consolidating EAS flights, would work, but they supported awarding longer-term EAS contracts.     

Entry effect of low-cost carriers on airport-pairs demand model using market concentration approach

The trend of open sky policies and growth of low-cost airlines, the topic of airport-pairs demand is gradually being addressed in the golden aviation circle of Northeast Asia. The variety of flight services among the four major metropolises with dual-airport systems leads to a competition-cooperation relationship existing between various airports and airlines. Therefore, this study investigates the causal relationship between the route-level passenger demand and influential factors using aggregate data collected through website observations. The empirical study focuses on direct flights of airport-pair routes among Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo. Results of the passenger regression model indicate that frequency, code-share, and morning flights have positive impacts on increasing passenger numbers for airlines. Further, the market concentration degree of Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and entry effect of low-cost carriers are important for the route-level passenger demand. In addition, routes with departures and arrivals in hub airports have a considerable attraction relative to other airport-pair routes. Finally, the proposed passenger model performs well in predicting market share, especially for routes with high demand.     

A large neighborhood search heuristic to establish an optimal ad-hoc hubbing strategy in the wake of a large-scale airport outage

Abrupt airport outages can cause diversions and fuel-critical situations for flights, leading to costly passenger misconnections. We develop a large neighborhood search heuristic to optimize the rerouting of flights bound for a disrupted airport to a hub airport that is not disrupted, with the goal of accommodating passengers on existing flights departing the non-disrupted hub. The objective of the heuristic is to identify and reroute flights to the ad-hoc hub(s) – non-disrupted hub airport(s) – that minimize the sum of passenger travel time and wait time. We minimize the passenger cost as the sum of passenger travel time to the diversion airport and wait time for a connecting flight at the ad-hoc hub airport, subject to on-board fuel and diversion airport capacity constraints. We use the heuristic to determine how a coordinated traffic management strategy could have diverted flights immediately following a real-world airport outage.     

Determinants of Brazilian international flights: The role of hub-and-spoke and infrastructure variables

The objective of this study is to evaluate the determining factors influencing airline companies to operate international origin-destination (O-D) routes from different Brazilian airports. The results are based on a panel data model and support the assumption that statistically significant explanatory variables stem from gravity factors (GDP and an airport competition measure weighted by distance), hub-and-spoke variables and capacity inputs. We find that a composite variable made up by the airport capacity variables – given by the size of the terminal building and the length of runways – and its domestic connections have a positive effect on airport competitiveness. In conclusion, we find that not only well-known demand-side factors, but also supply-side variables – strategic decisions taken by airport management – matter in attracting international flights.     

Airport choice and flight connectivity among domestic and international passengers – Empirical analysis using passenger movement survey data in Japan

This paper presents an empirical analysis of airport choice and passenger movement on international flights from local cities in Japan to Narita and Haneda Airports in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This is the first study to evaluate airport choice behavior in Japan empirically by using the micro data collected by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in 2010 (i.e., when time slots for international long-haul flights were first assigned at Haneda). The analysis confirms that flight connectivity is a crucial element in airport choice.Further, Japanese airlines and their associated alliances are able to attract passengers arriving from local cities by using Haneda airport. Above all, we find that the introduction of long-haul international flights from Haneda has met the needs of a number of passengers arriving from local cities in Japan owing to the convenience of the domestic flight network, especially for business purpose passengers.     

Hub premiums in European civil aviation

We investigate the practice of carriers that charge higher fares for flights leaving from their hub. We analyze this phenomenon by relating fares to distance, using the main leg of intercontinental flights for scaling purposes. Our results indicate that the practice of a mark up on flights originating from or going to hubs is not typical for the US situation. At least some European carriers charge significant premiums for direct flights from their hubs. We find that at least part of these premiums can be attributed to market power. Policy measures should be aimed at reduction of market power and consumer protection. Furthermore, the existence of hub premiums should be taken into account in regional hub policies.     

Assessment of passenger benefits brought about by international airport projects

This study sets forth a method to calculate the passenger benefits of an international airport project and assesses the passenger benefits brought about by two international airport projects.An international airport project mainly increases the number of flights and the possibility of determining convenient timetables. It does not significantly decrease the flight time of international travel. Thus, the user benefits brought about by an international airport project cannot be expressed by the conventional concept of ‘traveling time’, which is the term generally used.In this study, the ‘Expected Value of Traveling Time’ and ‘Expected Value of Generalized Cost’ are presented as indexes to evaluate improvements in convenience brought about by international airport projects. The passenger benefits of two airport projects in Japan are measured by consumer surplus calculated from the demand function using these indexes.These indexes are accurately calculated taking into consideration factors such as scheduling connections between domestic and international transport, and so enable a grasp not only of reductions in flight time, but also of passenger benefits resulting from international airport projects, such as increases in the number of flights and reductions in the time required to make transfers during domestic travel.     

Economic contribution of essential air service flights on small and remote communities

The Essential Air Service Program (EAS) has attracted considerable criticism and has been a target for either modification or complete termination almost since its inception through the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978. Although its opponents emphasize the program's inefficiency, its supporters claim that the program is crucial to accessing small and remote communities, which helps them develop economically and socially. This paper demonstrates the economic contributions of EAS flights to small and remote communities. Using a two-stage least squares estimation, the major findings indicate that a 1% increase in air passenger traffic in EAS airports with a minimum annual air passenger traffic of 1000 likely leads to a 0.12% increase in per capita income of the community served by that airport. Our results also suggest that EAS communities that are able to sustain their subsidized flights experienced higher per capita income growth in the 1999–2011 period than did ex-EAS communities that lost their flights as a result of non-eligibility.     

Drivers of long haul flight supply at secondary airports in Europe

Intercontinental air traffic is unevenly distributed between secondary European airports. While a few airports offer a remarkable number of long haul services, most non-hubs struggle to attract such flights. We discuss and test factors influencing secondary airport choice of long haul carriers. Results indicate that the economic power of the airport region has a significantly positive influence on long haul flight supply, while a sufficient runway length is only a condition sine qua non. Consequently, long runways at many secondary airports are underutilized and thus not economically viable.