Warfare and Economic Inequality: Evidence from Preindustrial Germany (c. 1400-1800)

What was the impact of military conflict on economic inequality? I argue that ordinary military conflicts increased local economic inequality. Warfare raised the financial needs of communities in preindustrial times, leading to more resource extraction from the population. This resource extraction happened via inequality-promoting channels, such as regressive taxation. Only in truly major wars might inequality-reducing destruction outweigh inequality-promoting extraction and reduce inequality. To test this argument I construct a novel panel dataset combining information about economic inequality in 75 localities, and more than 700 conflicts over four centuries. I find that the many ordinary conflicts — paradigmatic of life in the preindustrial world — were continuous reinforcers of economic inequality. I confirm that the Thirty Years’ War was indeed a great equaliser, but this was an exception and not the rule. Rising inequality is an underappreciated negative externality in times of conflict.     

Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model

This paper establishes a nonlinear theoretical model and uses panel smoothing transitional regression to study the optimal levels of government investment and public debt in a growth model using a panel dataset of 65 developed and developing economies over the period 1991–2014. The empirical results show that the effect of government investment on economic growth is decreasing as the level of expenditure rises. When the government investment/GDP ratio reaches a certain point (threshold), the effect of government investment could change from positive to negative. The effect of public debt on economic growth demonstrates a similar pattern. Our results suggest that there must exist an optimal level of government investment or public debt as far as economic growth is concerned, although the optimal level may vary in different economies. The government investment/GDP and public debt/GDP ratios of China were respectively 15.66% and 41.14% in 2014. These levels did not reach their respective thresholds and hence their effects on economic growth were still in the positive territory. Despite the expansion of government investment and public debt in China after the world financial crisis, their scales had not affected the country's economic growth during the data period.     

基于“快车道”模型的福建省产业结构调整分析

文章依据列昂惕夫“快车道”模型和2002年福建省的投入产出数据测算出福建省经济发展的平衡增长率及产业结构的最优平衡发展轨道。在此基础上,文章以2011年实现最优结构为目标,建立福建省产业结构发展的动态线性规划模型,并制定相应的产业结构优化调整方案。     

上海证券市场效率的制度性分析

制度的功能在于为经济服务,每一种制度都有其特定的功能和经济价值。制度作为经济发展的内在要素,制度性因素对经济增长起着决定性作用。证券市场作为一种制度安排,其基本功能是实现资本的优化配置。资本配置效率是衡量证券市场有效性的重要指标。     

休闲时间与经济效率——来自OECD国家的证据

本文认为在考察经济增长的过程中，除了需要关注人均变量，更需要关注“时人均”变量，因为后者代表单位时间内的人均变量，可用来衡量经济效率，而经济效率是经济增长潜力的源泉。为此，本文将工作时间、受教育时间和休闲时间引入内生增长模型，并突出考虑了休闲对经济个体效率的积极作用以及休闲对技术水平的外部效应，由此刻画了休闲与经济效率之间的非线性关系。随后，在模型结论的框架下，引用21个0ECD成员国近二十多年来的面板数据研究了上述非线性关系，并具体求解到经济体的最优休闲时间。由此说明，可以通过对休闲时间的合理调整与管理来达成最理想的经济效率。     

建设节约型社会的金融视角

转变经济增长方式,提高经济增长的质量,重在提高资源配置效率。金融资源配置是经济资源配置的关键,金融效率的高低在很大程度上决定着整个经济效率的高低。金融业:一方面,面临着如何抓住机遇、提高自身金融资源运用效率的问题;另一方面,金融的一项重要职能就是通过对资金资源的配置,引导其他生产要素的合理配置和优化。从这个意义上来讲,金融又是建立资源节约型经济的一个主要切入点。本文通过重新审视节约型社会的涵义,深入剖析了金融在促进经济社会发展、支持节约型社会建设中的作用,并对如何实现金融资源最优配置以支持建立节约型社会问题进行了探讨。     

江西金融体系协调发展模型设计与实证

区域经济发展不平衡对应的重要内在原因,是我国现有金融体系不能与快速经济增长水平配合。因此,从区域金融体系考虑是破解经济发展不平衡是一项重要举措。在现实中,区域经济增长水平和金融发展水平的配合程度常常偏离理论最优形态,导致各地方经济出现金融过度或金融不足的状况。文章借鉴金融生态思维及其相关理论和研究成果,分别从影响欠发达地区经济发展的金融外生性与内源性的相关因素分析金融资源支持地方经济的适度性。在大量研究基础上设计中部地区的协调发展模型并予以实证,从而得出相关结论以推动江西金融体系发展与区域经济增长态势相匹配。     

利益冲突与制度扭曲——论政府在经济发展和转型中的作用

本文在McGuire和Olson(1996)的基础上进一步讨论了政府在经济活动中的地位和作用.我们发现,即使是具有共容利益的政府,其与社会之间依然存在着利益冲突.因此,政府的存在总会造成一定的制度扭曲,使经济处于非最优效率状态.本文还研究了政府与社会之间的利益冲突在转型经济中的表现.研究表明,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会随着经济体制的改进而得到强化,从而使新制度受到更大的扭曲.另外,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会对经济体制的优化产生不同的影响,但最终都会妨碍制度变迁达至最优状态.本文的研究实际上指出了政治体制改革对经济发展和转型的重要意义.我们也指出,在转型经济中,政治体制改革的时机选择不当可能会导致结果事与愿违     

Optimal economic growth and non-stable population

Summary This paper analyses optimal economic growth when the (exogenous) rate of population growth changes. The optimal growth path is characterized by a strikingly straightforward generalization of the traditional steady-state Golden Rule of Accumulation. The comparative statics results allow for a generalization of Samuelson's (1975) analysis of the lower-bound for the optimal rate of population growth. It is shown that under plausible assumptions the optimal savings rate follows an inverted U-shaped or U-shaped pattern during periods of demographic transition, according to whether the growth rate of births is falling or rising.     

Growth,resource extraction and production in a small open economy

Summary and Conclusions This paper analyzed the optimal growth of a resource exporting economy in the framework of a Ramsey-type model. Two versions of the same model are used. In the first version (where the aggregate production function uses the conventional inputs, namely labor and capital) it was shown that along the optimal paths the resource would be exhausted in finite time and that the economy approaches asymptotically the modified golden rule capital intensity, well known from one-sector growth theory. Subsequently the impact of the changes in resource prices on the rate of extraction are investigated by considering an exponentially rising price.In the second version of the model, the resource extracted is divided between domestic production (the aggregate output of the economy is produced by means of labor, capital and the resource input) and export. Under this assumption, it is demonstrated that when the relative price of the resource is constant and given exogenously, the opening of trade (i.e., resource exports) depends on the relative magnitudes of the marginal product of the resource and its price. Furthermore the paper showed that even if trade opens, resource extraction for export will come to an end in finite time. After the economy stops exporting the resource, its optimal growth will be determined simultaneously by the elasticity of substitution between capital and the resource input and the dynamic behavior of the marginal product of the resource input, as explained in detail by Dasgupta and Heal [1974]. Finally, when the resource price has an exponential trend, resource extraction will continue both for domestic production and export purposes.     

Financial Structure,Technology, and Economic Growth: A Structural Matching Perspective

Different types of capital are better suited to financing technologies with different risk profiles, and structural matching between finance and technology may critically influence economic growth. Using cross-province panel data from China, we estimated the impact of the matching relationship between regions' financial structure and technology level on economic growth. We show that: (i) the matching relationship had a statistically significant positive impact on economic growth; (ii) structural mismatching reduced economic growth in comparison with the optimal matching point; (iii) structural matching better facilitated economic growth in more developed regions; and (iv) capital accumulation and technological progress were two of the main channels through which matching influenced economic growth. We address potential endogeneity concerns and perform robustness checks, and our results remain valid. Our findings provide convincing evidence for the optimal financial structure theory and explain China's rapid growth despite its comparatively underdeveloped securities market.     

清真(Halal)产业对宁夏产业结构调整的贡献研究

产业结构不均衡是我国经济发展中存在的主要问题。与全国相比,宁夏这一问题更为突出,目前宁夏现行的产业结构对经济可持续发展的制约作用巳凸显。因此,本文从宁夏资源禀赋、贸易取向等方面分析入手,认为发展清真产业是解决宁夏经济持续发展的最优选择之一。     

海上N油田蒸汽驱注采参数智能优化设计

我国海上油田原油资源储量丰富，其中N油田有着大量的稠油资源，现有的多元热流体开采方式已无法进一步提高油田采收率，开采效果差，因此急需开展蒸汽驱注采参数优化研究，但是传统的优化方法主要针对不同参数逐一进行优化方法，无法从全局综合考虑各个参数的协同优化作用，因此最终方案往往是单一参数的最优方案而不是全局最优方案。首先利用Petrol建立了区块地质模型，进而采用数值模拟软件CMG对该油田试验区进行了生产历史拟合，在此基础上使用基于均匀设计的改进型粒子群优化算法（PSO算法）对蒸汽驱开采方案进行整体智能优化，并将预测的开发效果与传统优化方案进行对比。对比结果显示，使用智能优化方案对油田进行开采，累增油量34.05万方，提高采收程度12.8%，相对人工配产方案增油5.39万方，提高采收率2.03%，有着更佳的开采效果。     

Polluting Non-renewable Resources and Sustainable Growth in a Schumpeterian Model

This paper explores the link between environment and economic growth in an Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth with vertical innovations, in which we introduce non-renewable resources, which cause flow pollution problems. It examines the conditions under which sustainable growth is optimal. We also perform some comparative static exercises to analyze the effects of parameter variations arising from the economic environment on the steady-state growth rate.     

中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略选择

20世纪90年代以来,世界经济的发展出现了新的趋势:区域经济一体化的发展较为迅猛。资源突破国界限制在世界范围内来实现优化配置,各国、各地区经济的相互依存程度不断提高。近些年来,东亚经济合作有了一定的发展,但是和欧盟及北美自由贸易区比起来,东亚经济一体化的发展明显落后。本文以区域经济一体化理论为基础,对中国在东亚经济一体化进程中的战略进行了研究,指出了中国在东亚经济一体化进程中战略存在的问题,并对中国的一体化战略提出了几点建议。     

Behavior of a firm which maximizes the rate of profit: Specific features

The author challenges the well-known assumption of the modern microeconomic theory, stating that the maximization of economic profit is a natural aim of a firm. The article asserts that the behavior of a firm controlled by private owners of capital should be linked to the firm’s desire to maximize the rate of profit. The return to the interpretation of a capitalist firm’s motivation, which is characteristic of the period of the classical political economy, makes it necessary to reconsider some established views, namely, the demand for physical capital by a firm; the optimal combination of production factors used; the scale of output, which maximizes the firm’s objective function; and the character of the firm’s cost functions (both economic and accounting). The conclusions drawn by the author also have some practical significance. A deep understanding of the genuine economic aims and motives, which determine the behavior of different types of firms, is especially important for a government searching for the optimal use of its assets.     

“两型社会”经济运行制度研究——基于财政分权的视角

我国"两型社会"建设已由理论概念转变成现实行动,国家财政分权制度是促进经济快速增长和经济运行效率提高的一个重要因素。在财政分权与经济增长关系理论文献与经验研究进行回顾的基础上,分别从理论和实证角度证明:财政分权对经济增长的积极作用呈现边际递减;存在一个最优财政分权点(或者至少存在一个可判断的最优财政分权区间),与经济发展相协调,促进经济快速增长。在控制影响经济增长的其它变量后,得到68.58%是我国的最优财政分权点,这一结论也得到了现实的印证。希望这一结论在我国"两型社会"建设,经济发展方式转变和追求财政分权与集权的制度博弈中,给政府决策财政分权尺度提供有价值的建议。     

中国经济增长与环境污染之间关系的理论解释与贝叶斯回归分析

环境污染在两个方面改变了经济增长模型,一方面它是产出的联合产品,另一方面它给消费者带来负效用。我们分析了以下几个问题：环境保护与经济增长是否相容;长期来看无污染积累的可持续增长是否可能;环境对经济增长的影响;如果引入环境因素,我们关注的关键变量如：收入、消费、资本以及环境污染的最优路径如何变化,据此可以推出哪些可驳斥的推断;观测数据与环境库茨涅茨曲线的理论推断特征是否相符。文章根据标准的经济学理论基础假设构建了一个理论模型,在设定了偏好、技术、禀赋、信息后,求出动态一般均衡解路径。使用环境污染的观测数据,附加关键参数的先验分布,运用贝叶斯推断求出参数的后验分布对理论模型的推断进行验证。文章的主要贡献是对环境库茨涅茨曲线采用了不同于传统回归分析的贝叶斯回归技术,并得出了有意义的分析结果。     

县域金融中介发展与县域经济增长的共振分析——基于河北省县域经济与金融现状的分析

金融发展与经济增长既相互促进又相互制约,经济水平落后,扼制金融资本的形成;金融积累的低水平又限制了经济的增长。金融发展水平的落后、低效是经济增长的最大障碍,打破这个链条的突破口应选择在金融的发展上。河北省各县域经济发展极度不平衡,这与各地金融发展的差异有关,因此如何通过金融规模、结构和效率的提高,实现资本在县域的最优化配置和经济的增长是本课题阶段性研究的重点内容。     

GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE AND THE OPTIMAL TIME PATH OF A CARBON TAX

The existing models of fossil fuel consumption with carbon accumulationimply that the optimal time path of carbon tax is either hump-shapedor monotonically decreasing. These models specify the decayof atmospheric carbon as a constant rate of total concentration.We extend this specification to more accurately reflect theglobal carbon cycle models of climatologists and show that thisextension changes the basic economic properties of the optimalcarbon tax. Our analysis reveals that the optimal carbon taxmay as well be constant through time, increase monotonically,or have a U-shape. In addition, optimal resource extractionmay have an open-close- open cycle.