Engel versus Baumol: Accounting for structural change using two centuries of U.S. data

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States.     

Effects of Patent Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality in a R&D Growth Model

To analyze the effects of patent policy on growth and inequality, this article develops a quality‐ladder model with wealth heterogeneity and elastic labor supply. The model predicts that strengthening patent protection increases (a) economic growth by stimulating spending on research and development and (b) income inequality by raising the return on assets. Elastic labor supply creates an additional effect on income inequality. As for consumption inequality, the effect is ambiguous and depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Calibrating the model to the U.S. data shows that strengthening patent protection increases income inequality by more than consumption inequality, and this pattern is consistent with the data.     

基本养老金替代率合意水平研究——以上海市城镇居民为例

社会保障制度是人类社会文明进步的标志,社会养老保险是其中一项重要制度,其建立对社会的平稳发展有重要影响.在人口老龄化日益深化的时期,及时有效地对社会养老保险制度进行改革势在必行.在改革过程中,对基本养老金替代率的合意水平进行研究具有深远意义.以上海市城镇居民为例,建立基本养老金收支平衡模型,将计算出的合意供给替代率与现实需求替代率进行对比.结果对比发现,需求与供给难以匹配,对不匹配的基本原因进行分析,并在此基础上提出相应对策.     

我国事业单位养老保险改革现状及对策研究

养老保险是社会保障体系中最基本的组成部分,是构成社会主义市场经济体制基本框架的重要环节。目前,养老保险的热点和难点是事业单位养老保险制度改革的问题。事业单位养老保险改革的滞后,不仅影响了整个社会保障制度的发展与完善,制约统一的劳动力市场的形成,而且加重了国家财政负担,阻碍了社会主义和谐社会的建设。本文基于以上背景,首先介绍了我国事业单位养老保险的改革发展历程,回顾了建国以来我国的事业单位养老保险所经历的三个阶段;其次着重分析当前事业单位养老保险制度改革进程中所存在的主要问题,最终提出完善我国事业单位养老保险制度的对策。     

Why are more redistributive social security systems smaller? A median voter approach

One of the stylized facts of unfunded social security programsis that programs are larger in size, measured relative to theGDP, the tighter the link between pension claims and past earnings.We provide a political economy explanation of this stylizedfact in a median voter model, where people vote on the socialsecurity tax rate. We compare pension systems with flat-rateand earnings-related benefit formulas. Only flat-rate benefitsredistribute within a generation from high to low income groups.If labor supply is endogenous, they also imply larger efficiencycosts than earnings-related schemes. Using data on eight Europeancountries, we find that the median voter is typically middle-agedwith high income. For these voters, earnings-related systemsare more attractive both because of less intragenerational redistributionand lower distortions in labor supply. The median voter modelis also able to account for a considerable degree of cross-countryvariation in contribution rates.     

日本社会养老保障制度变革对我国的启示

劳动力市场就业模式与年龄结构的变化是日本上世纪80年代以来养老金制度改革的基本动因,改革思路是顺应劳动力市场变革状况与趋势。有鉴于此,中国应基于劳动力市场多重分割,劳动者收入多重差距的现实,顺应劳动力市场一体化趋势,构建公平分配代际劳动产品的多层次多元社会养老保障制度。     

The role of public pensions in income inequality among elderly households in China 1988–2013

Using data from the Chinese Household Income Project surveys for 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2013, we investigate the role of public pensions in income inequality among households with elderly members across two decades of pension policy reforms. We examine the distribution and role of public pensions at a national level and analyse the evolution of the contribution of public pensions to national income inequality across a much more extended time period than earlier studies, which have generally focused on regional changes over short periods. Our findings suggest that public pensions have become the most important source of income for households with elderly members on average in China, but the distribution of pension income is highly unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.74 in 2013. Public pension income has been the largest source of income inequality for elderly households since 2002 and contributed to more than half of total income inequality in the most recent year of the survey. This finding is robust against variations in the income inequality measures used. Additionally, our analysis suggests unequal distribution of pension benefits is the primary driver of pensioners' income inequality. Among several hypothetical policy changes, ensuring a minimum pension benefit for all existing pensioners seems to be the most fiscally effective option in reducing income inequality, with a 0.8% reduction in the Gini coefficient for a 1% increase in public pension expenditure.     

Japan's public pension system: What's wrong with it and how to fix it

In this paper, I briefly discuss the current structure of Japan's public pension system, the history of that system, and some of the problems with the current system and then make a number of recommendations for reforming the system. I argue that Japan's current public pension system has an adverse impact on the inter- and intragenerational allocation of resources and that it discourages private saving as well as the labor supply of the aged and of women but that these distortions can be corrected by reforming the system in appropriate ways. In particular, I recommend switching immediately to a system that is actuarially fair to all cohorts and to all groups within each cohort, that does not contain perverse incentives for labor supply and saving decisions, and that ensures retirees an uninterrupted flow of income.     

Does New Rural Pension Scheme decrease elderly labor supply? Evidence from CHARLS

This paper examines the effect of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on the labor supply behavior of the elderly in rural China. Using pooled data from two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) and an analytical framework of combination of regression discontinuity design and difference in difference method (RD-DiD), we find no evidence that pension receipt from the NRPS program does significantly induce the elderly to withdraw from the labor market. The heterogeneous effects by health status indicate that pension recipient slightly decreases the probability of labor force participation for those individuals with chronic diseases; however, the effect is not statistically significant. The empirical findings suggest that the introduction of the NRPS program does not improve the welfare effect of the originally targeted elder individuals with illness.     

资源配置、全要素生产率与农业经济增长愿景

对2004~2010年我国不同地区农业的资源配置扭曲情况的分析表明:由于"二元经济"的影响,我国农业的资本和劳动存在着明显的跨部门配置扭曲。如能有效消除此类扭曲,我国农业TFP能提高6%~36%。各地区的资源再配置效应对农业TFP增长率有着显著影响,并且各地区的资源再配置效应存在明显差异。对全国各个地区而言,土地资源再配置效应都是影响农业资源再配置效应的主要因素,资本和劳动再配置效应则相对较弱。由此可见,促进城乡资本和劳动力市场一体化以及进一步完善农村土地流转市场是现阶段降低农业资源配置扭曲、促进农业TFP增长的主要途径。     

The China shock and job reallocation in Japan

This study investigates the characteristics of manufacturing job reallocation in Japan induced by import shocks from China during 1996–2016. Three types of import shocks are considered: direct, upstream, and downstream. Some salient features of job reallocation include decrease in total jobs from direct import, increase in small establishments’ jobs from downstream import, and job changes mainly induced establishments’ entry and exit. The sizeable difference of implied job changes in industry-level analysis and those in region-level analysis attributes to the local reallocation and aggregate demand effects determined by regional characteristics. The total job effect of three import shocks is negative in all cases examined. The method of decomposing job changes into detailed job flows and further into industry and regional factors, proposed in this study, enabled obtaining a clearer view of job reallocation and how import shocks travel through labor market.     

The upswing of regional income inequality in Spain (1860-1930)

This paper studies the evolution of Spanish regional inequality from 1860 to 1930. The results point to the coexistence of two basic forces behind changes in regional economic inequality: industrial specialization and labor productivity differentials. The initial expansion of industrialization, in a context of growing economic integration of regions, promoted the spatial concentration of manufacturing in certain regions, which also benefited from the greatest advances in terms of labor productivity. Since 1900, the diffusion of manufacturing production to a greater number of locations has generated the emulation of production structures and a process of catching-up in labor productivity and wages.     

Exogenous changes and policy reforms,labor migration,and welfare in a Keynesian economy

This paper examines the potential interaction between international labor migration, exogenous changes or policy reforms, and pre-existing distortions, such as generalized excess supply due to price-wage rigidities. Within this Keynesian income-expenditure context, it is suggested that (i) when international labor migration exists, the traditional Keynesian conclusions regarding the welfare effects of exogenous distortions, i.e., increase in exports need to be modified, and (ii) in the presence of price-wage rigidities, regardless of whether or not labor is internationally mobile, a policy reforming the country's tariff-subsidy structure may not be welfare improving.     

去工业化对收入不平等的影响:机制分析与实证检验

基于126个国家1991-2017年的面板数据,考察了去工业化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现,去工业化会显著加剧收入不平等程度,这在发展中经济体尤为显著。从传导机制看,去工业化既可以通过劳动力就业转移直接影响收入不平等,也可通过非熟练劳动力就业和服务业部门就业分化间接影响收入不平等。一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力受到更大冲击,致使该部分劳动力失业,加剧收入不平等;另一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力的就业从工业的高薪部门转移至服务业的低薪部门,最终影响收入不平等。进一步研究发现,在可能存在"过早去工业化"的国家去工业化对收入不平等的作用更加明显。因此发展中经济体要着重预防由于去工业化可能带来的收入不平等程度恶化。     

新疆劳动力转移的经济效应评价

随着新疆经济的快速增长,经济结构也发生了重大调整,但结构失衡依然很严重,主要表现在产值结构与就业结构的偏离。本文就劳动力转移对新疆经济增长的效应进行了测算,实证分析表明,劳动力从低效率部门转移到高效率部门的再配置对总量劳动生产率及其增长都有较显著的作用,并显示出与全国不同的特点。同时还讨论了这种效应的阶段性变化、产业差异及其政策含义。     

供给侧改革视角下养老服务人才供给的路径研究

新时代养老服务建设重点任务之一在于养老服务行业的人才供给,但是目前养老服务人才供给与人才需求之间仍然存在供需不均衡的问题,包括养老服务行业人才供给少、性别比例失衡、专业技术水平低、流失率高等现实困境。为解决养老服务人才供给困境,从供给侧角度出发需要政府加大职业宣传与人才政策落实,鼓励高校适应养老需求精准办学,同时要加强劳动教育,塑造养老服务职业尊严,从而调动社会参与养老服务积极性。     

On the Aggregate Labor Supply: A Progress Report

Abstract

At the aggregate level, the labor supply elasticity can significantly depart from the micro elasticity. In an economy where households make decisions on the labor market participation, the slope of the aggregate labor supply curve is determined by the distribution of reservation wages rather than by the willingness to substitute leisure intertemporally. We present a model economy where earnings and wealth distributions are comparable to those in the micro data. We find that the aggregate labor supply elasticity of such an economy is around 1, which is greater than the typical micro estimates but smaller than those often assumed in the aggregate models. Our model also sheds some light on the recent debate on the failure of the representative agent model.     

Job destruction and creation: Labor reallocation entailed by the clean air action in China

Understanding the mechanism of labor reallocation during the implementation of environmental regulations is important for countries to stabilize employment. Using city-level data and listed firm-level data from 2005 to 2019, we investigated the labor reallocation entailed by the Clean Air Action (CAA) from 2013 to 2017 in China, and found that the CAA substantially reduced labor demand in regulated cities and listed firms. Notably, the CAA has entailed different levels of job destruction and job creation across time, industries, and firm types, boosting labor reallocation. Firstly, the effect of the CAA on labor demand was time-varying, as labor demand first decreased and then recovered from 2013 to 2019. Secondly, the CAA generated a greater job destruction in polluting industries and their downstream industries, and job creation in clean industries. Lastly, thanks to the CAA firms have increased the hiring of highly skilled workers, although equipment upgrades have reduced labor demand, especially in polluting firms.     

The Supply Side of the Race Between Demand and Supply: Policies to Foster Skill in the Modern Economy

In his celebrated book on income inequality, Jan Tinbergen (1975) wrote about the race between demand and supply in determining the evolution of wages and inequality. The demand side of the recent labor market is well understood. Skill-biased technical change favors skilled workers in many different economic environments. The supply side is less well understood. In the Netherlands, until recently, the supply side was winning and the returns to education were declining or stagnant. The exact reasons for this phenomenon are not well understood. Recently, however, there is evidence that suggests that the returns to schooling are increasing and that demand is outstripping supply, as it has done in most developed countries around the world. This has produced rising wage inequality. Unless more active supply side measures are undertaken, this trend is likely to continue. This problem, joined with the persistent problem of immigrant assimilation and the growing role of immigrants in the Dutch economy, renews interest in the supply side of the labor market. This lecture examines the determinants of the supply of skills in the short run and the long run. It examines the roles of short- term credit constraints and long-term family factors in fostering or retarding skill accumulation. It summarizes the evidence on a number of policy proposals to foster skills including early childhood programs, programs to alleviate short-term financial pressure, job training and second chance programs, and tax policies. This lecture stresses the cumulative dynamic nature of skill production and the importance of recognizing that skill begets skill in designing suitable policies to reduce inequality and foster economic growth. While the evidence is based on American data, the lessons are relevant for economies around the world. Specific lessons for the Netherlands are emphasized.     

发展中国家老人劳动参与规律分析：基于巴西、印度的比较

文章基于巴西、印度的比较分析指出,经济发展水平不高、贫困问题依然突出的发展中国家人口老龄化必然会带来老年人口劳动参与率的提高,对社会经济发展带来新的挑战与影响.其中,贫困是老人劳动参与的直接原因,养老金对老人正规就业有着显著的挤出效应.因此,对发展中国家而言,为确保老年人口群体晚年生活质量,老人劳动就业相关政策的重点应放在两个方面:一是确保老年劳动经济收入有保障,二是加快养老金等社会保障体系建设.