Brewing projects in developing countries: Technology, costs and employment

Recently established industries in developing countries are often criticized for high costs and low employment-generation, and a coincidence is sometimes supposed, given low wage rates, between minimization of costs and substantial direct employment creation. Analysis of alternative technologies reveals this supposition to be largely unfounded, as far as lager brewing is concerned, over a wide range of developing country circumstances; but a set of low-cost, labour-intensive techniques is suggested as approximately meeting requirements both for low costs and for equitable distribution of employment and income opportunities.     

基于经济增长的新疆减贫效果趋势分析

经济增长和减贫一直是发展中国家和地区制定发展战略所考虑的重点。改革开放初期,新疆通过经济增长极大地降低了农村贫困,经济增长的减贫效果显著;20世纪80年代中后期至2010年,由于经济增长的质量下降和收入不平等程度增加,减贫趋势变缓;2011年以后,随着援疆工作和民生工程的不断推进,高速的经济增长和对贫困人口有利的收入分配对减贫起到了良好的效果,经济增长出现了益贫性特征。纵观改革开放至今,新疆减贫成就的主要原因是经济持续的高速增长、人力资本的明显改善和政府采取的反贫困行动;而其减贫趋势放缓的原因是农村经济增长质量的下降和农村收入分配的不断恶化。为此,本文认为新时期扶贫工作中,新疆应实施益贫式增长战略。从生产领域着手,在增加就业的同时通过增加穷人的资产基础以提高穷人的自我发展能力,而政府在打造民生工程时应注重市场机制,以保持减贫的可持续性。     

Key issues in regional growth and integration in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

The decade to 2015 saw rapid growth in trade between Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Much of this growth reflected South African exports to its neighbours of diversified manufactured goods to meet growing urban consumption and to supply inputs to mining and infrastructure. While most SADC countries, aside from South Africa, grew quite rapidly over this period, their exports remained oriented to a narrow range of minerals and agricultural commodities destined to go outside the region. Drawing from a series of sectoral studies, we assess key regional issues including the investment and production decisions of firms whose operations stretch across borders, and consider the implications for a bottom-up integration agenda that could build productive capabilities across countries. Our evaluation highlights the importance of the spread of supermarkets, the need to address transport and logistics, and value chains whose competitive advantages are inherently regional, as in the cases of poultry and mining.     

Population dynamics and economic growth in China

This paper focuses on two major elements of China's population dynamics—the rising proportion of workers in the population and the shift of rural workers from agriculture into industry and services—in a provincial-level analysis of per capita income and productivity growth during the last three decades. We measure the ‘mechanical’ contributions of these dynamics to per capita income as revealed by growth decompositions, before assessing the determinants of per capita income and productivity growth in a series of regressions that include the growth of the working-age to total population (WAP) ratio and a measure of sectoral employment change. Our results indicate that sectoral change has made a significant positive contribution to both per capita income growth and aggregate productivity growth, stemming from its positive impact on agricultural productivity growth—as predicted by the Lewisian dual economy model. However, the negative impact of sectoral change on productivity growth in the industrial and service sectors, combined with the negative impact of growth of the WAP ratio on both per capita income and aggregate productivity growth, suggests that the benefits of China's population dynamics during the last three decades have been overstated.     

Technology Transfer,Income Distribution and the Process of Economic Development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow.     

The Development of the Economy of Taiwan

The development of the Taiwanese economy over the past five decades was manifested in rapid growth, export expansion, stable prices, full employment, and relatively equitable income distribution. In this development, the government has played an important role. This paper sets out to report the important features of the Taiwanese economy during the post-war period to 1998, and to examine the policies which crucially contributed to its successful development.     

Structural adjustment, macroeconomic adjustment and poverty: A methodology for analysis

The object of this paper is to set out a methodology for analyzing the impact on the poor in less developed countries (LDCs) of adjustment to disturbances arising in the international sectors sectors of these economies. The methodology is not based on a detailed general equilibrium model of the whole economy, but instead focuses on the effects of the adjustment process on the sectoral composition of national output and expenditure. The paper provides a framework for the calculation of quantitative estimates of the impact of adjustment on poverty using household income and expenditure surveys currently available in LDCs. It is proposes the use of decomposable poverty indices as a tractable vehicle for calculating the impact of adjustment on overall poverty. This framework does require, however, reasonably disaggregated data on income distribution.     

Brazilian socioeconomic development: Issues for the eighties

Since 1964 Brazil has experienced rapid economic growth, exclusionary politics and a persistently unequal distribution of income. After 1973 rapid growth was maintained only at the cost of accelerating inflation and massive foreign borrowing, while a process of political liberalization was begun. A change in economic development strategy could increase the number of jobs created per unit of capital invested, concentrate benefits on those who have least profited from the growth process to date, decrease imports, and increase the productivity of the poor. Such a strategy, the outlines of which can be found in Brazil's Third National Development Plan, makes good social as well as economic sense.     

China＇s Pattern of Growth： Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

I. Introduction China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 9.4 percent per annum since1978. As a result of this impressive growth, millions of people were lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms implemented over the last 25 years have certainly been instrumental in the remarkable growth performance, leading to higher productivity growth than in the pre- reform period. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed that China’s growth during this period has been resource intensive, drawing…     

Liquidity Risk and Banks' Asset Composition: Implications for Monetary Policy

Monetary growth models in which the government is a net debtor demonstrate that inflation adversely affects capital formation through the crowding out effect. Interestingly, the results are at odds with empirical evidence. In particular, recent studies point to an asymmetric relationship between inflation and the real economy across countries. Specifically, inflation and output are negatively correlated in poor countries. In contrast, inflation is associated with higher levels of economic activity in advanced economies. I present a monetary growth model with public debt, where the exposure to risk is inversely related to the level of income. In this setting, I demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of capital of the economy. In poor countries, banks' portfolios consist primarily of government liabilities. Therefore, a higher rate of money creation inhibits capital formation in these economies. In contrast, banks devote more resources toward productive uses in advanced countries. Consequently, monetary policy generates a Tobin effect.     

Income Distribution in East Asian Developing Countries: an update

This paper portrays recent trends in income distribution in eight countries of the developing East and Southeast Asian region. The available data indicate that the distribution of income in the more developed Asian NIEs, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, has tended to become more unequal in recent years. The ASEAN-4 countries offer an interesting contrast. With the exception of Thailand, the distributions of income in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have shown a trend towards greater equality. The experiences of the East Asian developing countries have demonstrated that sustained GDP growth with full employment could be a most favourable factor explaining the reduction of inequality.     

Estimating sectoral product quality under quality heterogeneity

This paper estimates product quality at the sectoral level using data from a panel of twelve manufacturing sectors in nineteen OECD countries during the years 1995–2006. The author first derives a gravity model from a firm-heterogeneity model of trade, then measures product quality as the residual of the gravity model. In estimating the gravity model, the author employs the two-step procedure of Helpman et al. (Q J Econ 123(2):441–487, 2008) to correct for biases caused by selection in trade and firm heterogeneity. When aggregated into the country level, the used overall quality metrics do not systematically differ from Hallak and Schott’s (Q J Econ 126(1):417–474, 2011). In line with existing literature, sectoral quality estimates are found positively correlated with sectoral unit prices as well as countries’ income per capita. And the quality gap between rich and poor countries is more pronounced in capital- and skill-intensive sectors. In addition, the autor finds beta- and sigma-convergence in sectoral product quality across countries.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, INCOME AND HAPPINESS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

The pursuit of high economic growth is considered desirable as it generates an increase in a nation's wealth, income, employment and output. The rising income should enable consumers to purchase more goods and services, which in turn should result in enhanced utility and subjective happiness. Empirical studies suggest that higher income resulting from high rates of economic growth contribute to poverty alleviation and life satisfaction in low income countries. Higher income raises the happiness of the poor. In developed countries, higher income does not seem to "buy" higher happiness, once a threshold level of income is reached. This exploratory study seeks to examine the quantitative and qualitative sources of happiness. A higher absolute level of income is found to be significantly related to subjective happiness. Among the non-income factors, family togetherness, a good working environment and a higher level of education can contribute to making people happier. Happiness thus involves more than just economic growth and income.     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

Trade integration in the Southern African development community: Prospects and problems 1

The adoption of a trade and development protocol by the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in August 1996 marks the end of an era of sectoral cooperation and the beginning of a process of trade integration among these countries. This article provides a preliminary analysis of the obstacles and opportunities which trade integration presents for the Southern African region in the context of the institutional and structural factors currently influencing trade patterns both within and outside the region. Critically, the article poses the question whether the provisions of the trade protocol provide an adequate framework for the region's agenda of trade integration and industrial development that is equitable, balanced and mutually beneficial. The analysis demonstrates that it does not, and hence the authors argue that measures that lie beyond the provisions of the trade protocol are a sine qua non for the success of trade integration.     

Is Belgium ready for EMU? A look at national, sectoral and regional developments

In EMU the question arises how countries will respond to adverse economic shocks. A statistical decomposition of output shocks in Belgium identifies the sectoral level as the main source of turbulence. This sectoral focus reduces the need for monetary, exchange rate and budgetary policies as macro-economic adjustment mechanisms but raises the issue of labour market flexibility. We show that wages fail to respond to sectoral and regional shocks. Similarly to the other EU countries, this absence of wage adjustments tends to amplify the regional divergence in production and employment performance, and can thus threaten political cohesion.     

The Short-Run Relationship Between Sectoral Shifts and U.S. Labor Market Fluctuations

Monthly data for the aggregate U.S. economy are used to assess competing hypotheses concerning the relationship between sectoral employment shifts and fluctuations in the unemployment rate. It is shown that sectoral shifts are caused by major work stoppages, aggregate fluctuations unrelated to permanent sectoral shifts, a reallocation-timing effect, and allocative shocks at the sectoral level. Larger employment shifts are associated with higher unemployment during slow growth periods and lower unemployment during above-average growth periods. Models are presented which demonstrate that both aggregate and allocative shocks are causes of cyclical increases in unemployment.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

运用市场原则，解决收入分配不公

要明确收入分配的概念。在市场经济中,初次收入分配被称为要素收入分配。要搞清楚收入分配中的效率与公平的关系。经济学意义上的效率是从生产过程中产生的,收入分配过程并不产生效率。在这个含义中,生产过程应该注重效率,而收入分配应该注重公平。效率与公平是相互促进的。只有企业所有者、经营者、劳动者以及其他与企业利益相关的参与者之间的和谐,才能够保证生产和交易的顺利进行。在这个意义上,公平是能够促进效率的。中国的经济体制改革把国家计划指令下的资源配置方式改为由市场主导,财产占有制度也随着发生变化。收入分配不是孤立的,而要取决于财产分配。如果让一些人不劳而获就获得财产权,收入分配的结果肯定是不公平的。在中国,财产分配不公平的主要原因是国企产权交易、土地使用权转让和资本市场的运作违反市场公平交易原则,造成暴富者不劳而获。我们不但反对鼓吹贫富差距合理论的观点,也反对以贫富差距拉大为借口否定中国的经济体制改革。贫富差距拉大是没有落实市场交易原则造成的;运用市场机制的公平交易原则,不但能够纠正收入分配不平等,也能够纠正财产分配不平等。要把经济体制改革进行到底,必须真正落实市场交易原则。