Time-varying beta and the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from the Asian industrial sectors

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, and the period immediately afterwards, on the time-varying beta of four industrial sectors (chemical, finance, retail and industry) of Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We apply daily data from 1992 to 2002 and the bivariate MA-GARCH model (BEKK) to create the time-varying industrial betas. Results provide evidence of the influence of the Asian financial crisis, and the period after, on the time-varying industrial betas of these countries. These results may have implications for investors who are interested in portfolio risk management.     

The Asian Automotive Industry: Assessing the Roles of State and Market in the Age of Global Competition

In the 1970s, automotive industries in developing economies were rebuked for their failure to set in motion the technological learning and industrial externalities that justified state promotion. However, in the 1990s, a number of Asian automotive industries throve with the rapid growth of their host economies. This paper assesses the current state and prospects of automotive industries in selected Asian countries with state-sponsored development programs—South Korea, Taiwan, China and India—and the ASEAN economies—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. To date, Korea is the only developing economy in Asia with an indigenous auto-manufacturing base capable of competing in the international market. Given developments in the world industry, the catch-up task for other countries in the region will be more difficult.     

Selected Land Reforms in East and Southeast Asia: Their Origins and Impacts

Agrarian reforms in the four case study countries examined here came about by outside influence (Korea and Taiwan), revolutionary uprising (People's Republic of China), and legislation (Philippines). In the last case, the reforms remain very incomplete. In Taiwan and South Korea, reforms initially promoted a more equitable distribution of resources and income. This widened the domestic market, lessened underemployment and joblessness in both agriculture and industry, increased profitability in manufacturing, and established more equitable development patterns. In these economies, a national market has preceded (or accompanied) development of world markets. Land reform is not a once-and-for-all phenomenon. Resources and incomes can concentrate again in the absence of proper government policies. There is no necessary correlation between land reform, economic improvement, and democratic forms of government.     

欠发达农区产业集群的演化分析——以河南省前孔场村为例

文章试图以演化的视角和生命周期理论的观点来审视欠发达农区产业集群的发展轨迹,把产业集群的发展分为产生、成长、成熟、跃迁（包含衰退和新的成长）四个阶段,强调了农区产业集群发展中问题的解决有赖于地方政府的合理干预。地方政府在延迟甚至阻止产业集群的衰退、延长产业集群的生命周期,提升产业集群竞争力和新产业集群的培育有不可替代的作用。     

台湾工研院LED关键技术透视及其研发与产业化管理模式启示

台湾工研院在世界LED产业技术领域占据非常重要的地位。本文首先梳理台湾工研院近年在LED关键技术,例如AC LED,AM OLED,磁能LED,广色域LED背光技术,LED封装技术等;更进一步地,深入分析台湾工研院在LED技术研发过程中的创新管理模式,以期为我国LED产业的研发提供宝贵的情报信息,并为我国内陆科研院所提高科研创新能力,促进科技成果产业化提供经验借鉴与启示。     

Rural Cottage Industry in Transition: The Roof Tile Industry in Kabupaten Boyolali,Central Java

This paper attempts to explain changes in rural cottage industry (RCI) employment by means of a Central Javanese case study of the rural tile industry. It demonstrates that a decline in employment in this industry, despite a favourable rural industrial environment, is largely due to transition from household-based production to production by more specialised and productive units, with some functions, e.g. marketing and transport, being contracted out, and providing employment for those originally involved in household-based production. Transition has occurred in areas with access to wider markets and improved technology.     

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN JAPAN,KOREA, AND TAIWAN BETWEEN 1980 AND 1999: TESTING FOR CONVERGENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLOSER ECONOMIC RELATIONS

This paper seeks to explore the basis for a free trade agreement (FTA) between Japan and the Republic of Korea by comparing export patterns of these two countries with that of a nonmember—Taiwan—that is geographically close and is also a major exporter of machinery. After calculating indices of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 3‐digit SITC categories, we test for convergence of export patterns between each pairing of partners (Japan‐Korea, Korea‐Taiwan, and Japan‐Taiwan). We find that even though each partner has a statistically significant correlation of RCA indices, export patterns of Korea and Taiwan are converging with that of Japan, while in the case of Taiwan and Korea there is no significant convergence between their export patterns. Finally, we identify sectors where trade diversion is likely to occur and provide an upper‐bound estimate of the potential amount of trade that might be diverted from Taiwan by a Japan‐Korea FTA.     

韩国经济的复苏及其启示

本文主要关注1961年以后韩国经济的发展过程,凸现韩国经济转型的国内条件、国际机遇、主导产业,特别是韩国政府的选择。本文分析认为,韩国经济发展的原动力经历了进口替代、出口导向,现在转向出口和内需联合驱动。在出口导向型经济发展中,产业主导又具体经历了劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型等三个产业升级的阶段。韩国经济的主要启示是,政府应该引导经济的提升,促进新产业体系的形成,推动经济转型的实现;区域经济发展应强调局部均衡、重点发展特色优势产业。     

数字内容产业发展的东亚模式及其借鉴

数字内容产业是新兴的文化产业,以其高科技、高附加值和高成长成为现代服务业的重要部分,东亚的日本、韩国和中国台湾地区把数字内容产业定位为积极振兴的新型战略性产业。本文分析和总结了数字内容产业发展的东亚模式,在总结其成功经验的基础上,对我国数字内容产业的发展提出有益的建议。     

中韩产业结构高度化的比较分析——以两国制造业为例

展望未来韩国产业的发展与结构变化,中国产业结构变化是必须考虑的重要因素之一。本文为了探析中国的产业结构高度化趋势与程度,根据OECD技术分类标准,以制造业为中心,对中、韩两国的产业结构进行了详尽的比较分析。研究结果表示,两国都呈现出比较明显的产业高度化态势。在制造业中,高端技术产业的比重显著增加。韩国高端技术产业比重的增长快于中国,中国在中端技术产业与低端技术产业的比重大于韩国。     

产业转型与海峡西岸经济区经济发展

海峡西岸经济区的产业发展参差不齐,产业主体仍然是低附加值制造业,并出现过度竞争,产能过剩,而一些高附加值的较高端的产业却又发展滞后,不利于区域经济发展,需要进行产业转型,而区域经济发展为产业转型创造了资本、技术、管理、时机等重要条件。结合分析提出海峡西岸经济区产业转型的政策选择,以期推动本区域经济发展。     

Rural Industrialization: A comparison of development planning in China and India

This paper attempts to show the very considerable differences in rural industry promotion and development in China and India. Both countries have a rural industrial sector with employment levels in the region of 20 million. Overall figures and characteristics are compared and contrasted. The Chinese planners stress skill formation and the development of regional industrial structures while employment per se is emphasized in India. This has considerable consequences for urban–rural relations, which are specifically discussed in the Chinese context. Finally, the paper shows how the expansion of the rural industrial sector enables the consolidation of the collective economy at a higher level and thus assists the implementation of socialist transformation.     

Trade Verticality and Structural Change in Industries:The Cases of Taiwan and South Korea

This paper documents that a significant portion of trade for Taiwan and Korea follows the trend of world trade in moving toward a pattern of vertical specialization (VS). Noteworthy is the manufacturing sector, whose VS shares of exports has been steadily increasing and has accounted for more than 90% of the total VS shares of manufactured exports. For Taiwan, nearly 57% of the growth in exports is contributed by the growth in VS-based trade; for Korea, it is as high as 64%. In the analysis, we compare VS shares of exports with or without input-output circulation among domestic industries in an open economy. Using Taiwan as a case study, we further discuss the implications of trade liberalization through tariff reductions for trade verticality. JEL Classification Numbers: F1, F14     

Social Policy and Mortality Decline in East Asia and Latin America

Since 1960, Chile and Costa Rica have improved life expectancy and infant survival as much as South Korea and Taiwan, despite growing more slowly, suffering more income poverty, and having more unequally distributed incomes. This paper analyzes the origins and impact of the publicly-funded social services that allowed Chile and Costa Rica to achieve rapid reductions in the risk of early death, despite relatively poor performance on income-related indicators; and explores how South Korea and Taiwan managed to achieve similar progress at reducing premature mortality, despite making less deliberate efforts to fund social services for the poor.     

国外产业研发的资助模式与管理政策比较研究

对产业技术和产业化项目的资助模式与管理政策一直是各地政府急切要解决的问题。本文以美、德、日、韩等为研究对象,综合比较各国产业技术和产业项目的政府资助模式以及项目管理模式,希望能为我国产业技术研发政策提供有益经验。     

Trade Policy Issues in the Asian-Pacific Region:

Throughout the 1980s the Asian-Pacific region (and especially fast Asian countries) has achieved rapid economic growth accompanied by drastic changes in industrial production and trade. In the textile and clothing industry (‘textile’ industry hereafter), exporting countries display the ‘flying geese’ pattern. The first-tier exportec Japan, had retreated by the mid- 1970s. The second-tier exporters, the East Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs, consisting of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong), are now being replaced by the third-tier, ASEAN and Chinese exporters. The drastic changes in production and trade have resulted from the spread of modern textile production techniques in response to changing comparative advantage. This has been caused by increased labour costs and exchange rate alignment in the first-and second-tier exporters, but it has also been affected by the trade policies of industrial importer countries. The textile industry trade has been tightly managed under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA), and individual trade flows have been restricted by quota allocation under the MFA. At the current GATT Uruguay Round negotiations the major contracting parties agreed, in the Dunkel text of December 7997, on the gradual phasing out of the MFA restrictions over ten years. How will textile industry trade develop in the absence of the MFA restrictions? This paper focuses on the trade and production of textiles and clothing, but the case of this industry exemplifies important trade policy issues arising from the rapidly changing industrial structure in the Asian-Pacific region. In discussing textile trade policy issues, economists often focus on the MFA. However, the MFA has not produced a watertight regime. Textile production and trade have changed through product and process innovation, new management styles, and the ever-changing tastes of consumers. The MFA restrictions have effected these innovative changes, but the policy issues need to be discussed in this context of industrial change. ¹ 1 The author has published two papers on this issue (Yamazawa 1983, 1989). This paper is a follow-up of earlier discussion. As in past studies, the author has benefited from discussion at the Textile Advisory Committee meetings of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and from a field trip to northern China in early 1903.
     

美韩签署FTA对台湾的影响

美韩双边在各自利益需求的考量之下成功签署FTA,必将刺激亚太地区各国洽签双边FTA的热情。对于近年来许多经济指标都被韩国超越的台湾当局来说,难免感到紧张却又一筹莫展。韩美FTA对台湾的挑战将如何?这是本文要讨论的重点。     

A cross-country comparison of interindustry linkages and the role of imported intermediate inputs

This paper compares the patterns of intermediate input use, the levels of overall and domestic industrial linkages, and the role of imported intermediate goods in production among nine countries and over time, based on input-output data. Evidence on distinct differences in overall interindustry linkages and import contents between Korea and Taiwan on the one hand and Turkey, Colombia, and Mexico on the other are presented. The differences are then related to the differences in export structure and in trade and industrial policies adopted in each country.     

An East Asian paradigm?

The World Bank's 1993 East Asian Miracle report proposed two models of East Asian Development, one based on the Japanese economy, the other on the more recent miracle economies of Southeast Asia. The latter pursued open-market and investment policies compatible with Anglo-American economic norms, while Japan and its coterie (South Korea and Taiwan) forged industrial policy regimes with high levels of government intervention and protection. Japan takes a different view of Southeast Asian success—as a combination of conscious emulation of Japan and concentrated Japanese foreign direct investment, aid, and regional industrial strategy. This article explores the tension between the World Bank thesis and the Japanese view, embodied in a growth metaphor called flying geese. The author concludes that Japan has been far more reactive and opportunistic than the flying geese metaphor suggests, but that this paradigm has a profound influence on Japanese government and corporate strategy in Asia.     

China＇s Pattern of Growth： Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

I. Introduction China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged 9.4 percent per annum since1978. As a result of this impressive growth, millions of people were lifted out of poverty. Economic reforms implemented over the last 25 years have certainly been instrumental in the remarkable growth performance, leading to higher productivity growth than in the pre- reform period. Nevertheless, it is widely agreed that China’s growth during this period has been resource intensive, drawing…