Exchange Rate Behavior of Canada,Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States

We revisit a significant research topic on exchange rate behavior by restating the test procedures with an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect nominal exchange rate? (ii) Do relative interest rates affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The quarterly data series for this study are taken over 55 years. The traditional parity condition model with price and interest rate as criterion variables is extended to take into account recently-verified non-parity factors, namely trade, productivity and foreign reserves. The results affirm that both parity factors and also the non-parity factors significantly affect the exchange rates of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. In our view, these findings relating to four free-floating currencies help extend our knowledge on how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems using a relevant methodological approach in this study.     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

Student attitudes toward markets: Comparative survey data from China, the United States and Russia

Survey data are used to compare Chinese undergraduates' attitudes toward markets with those of American and Russian undergraduates.¹ Some similarities were found between Chinese and American students' attitudes, particularly a shared interest in material gain and belief in the importance of material incentives. There were also significant differences: Chinese students were less comfortable with market outcomes and more willing to support government intervention in markets than Americans were, and expressed more doubts about the character of business people than did their American peers. In a comparison with Russian undergraduates, Chinese students were less concerned about the fairness of market outcomes, but they were also more supportive of government intervention in the market. Russian students were more interested in material gain and more supportive of business than their Chinese peers. These results suggest that recent differences between China and Russia's economic performance are not simply explained by differences in citizens' attitudes toward markets or reform.     

Central bank communication and correlation between financial markets: Canada and the United States

We study the correlation between pairs of bond and stock markets in Canada and the United States between January 1998 and December 2009 in the framework of diagonal-BEKK models. Our research question is whether monetary policy actions and communications by the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve significantly affect the conditional co-movement of financial markets (i) within Canada and (ii) between Canada and the United States. We find that central bank communication significantly increases the correlation of financial markets within and across the two countries and is particularly important for the correlation of Canadian and US long-term interest rates.     

McCallum’s base growth rule: Results for the United States,West Germany,Japan, and Canada

Conclusions The results presented here suggest that McCallum’s rule for base growth deserves serious consideration by policymakers. The rule is extremely simple and the results here indicate that the growth rule may go a long way towards prescribing a policy that can reduce inflation without inducing additional nominal GNP variability, especially for the United States and Canada. Our results also demonstrate that the rule is not a precondition to achieving stable prices and nominal GNP growth. The fact that the Bundesbank and the Bank of Japan have outperformed the growth rule during the 1980s suggests that a fruitful area of future research would be a comprehensive investigation of monetary policy in West Germany and Japan. This task has already been undertaken by Fischer [1988], Neumann [1990], and Suzuki et al. [1990].

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Zusammenfassung McCallums Regel für das Wachstum der monet?ren Basis. Ergebnisse für die Vereinigten Staaten, Westdeutschland, Japan und Kanada. — Der Autor kombiniert McCallums Regel mit Einzelgleichungsmodellen sowie mit VAR-Modellen zur Bestimmung des nominalen BSP und führt Simulationen durch mit Daten aus den Vereinigten Staaten, Westdeutschland, Japan und Kanada. Es zeigt sich, da? sich McCallums Regel positiv ausgewirkt h?tte, wenn sie in allen vier L?ndern angewandt worden w?re. Deutschland und Japan verzeichneten seit 1974 ein Wachstum der monet?ren Basis, das der Regel noch am besten entsprach, und hatten die niedrigsten Inflationsraten und geringere Schwankungen des nominalen BSP um den Wachstumstrend als die Vereinigten Staaten und Kanada.

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Résumé La règle de l’accroissement de la base monétaire de McCallum: Des résultats pour les Etats Unis, l’Allemagne de l’Ouest, le Japon et le Canada. — La règle de McCallum de l’accroissement de la base monétaire est combinée avec des modèles à une équation et aux ?vector-auto-regressions? développés pour déterminer le PNB nominal et est simulée avec des données pour les Etats Unis, l’Allemagne de l’Ouest, le Japon et le Canada. L’évidence est que la règle de McCallum aurait donné des résultats positifs si l’on aur ait adopté la règle dans tous les quatre pays. De plus, l’Allemagne et le Japon ont poursuivi la règle dès 1974 le plus proche et ont réalisé un taux d’inflation et un taux de divergence entre le PNB nominal et son tendance qui est plus bas que dans les Etats Unis et le Canada.

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Resumen La regla de crecimiento de la base de McCallum: resultados para los EE UU, Alemania Occidental, Japón y Canadá. - En este trabajo se combina la regla de crecimiento de la base de McCallum con ecuaciones individuates y modelos VAR para la determinación del PBI nominal y se simula con datos para los EE UU, Alemania Occidental, Japón y Canadá. Los resultados demuestran que la regla de McCallum funcionaria bien si se adoptara en los cuatro países. Alemania y Japón presentan desde 1974 un crecimiento de la base similar al de la regla, además de registrar las tasas de inflatión más bajas y una variabilidad del PBI con respecto a la tendencia del crecimiento del producto más baja que la de los EE UU y del Canadá.

     

Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China,Japan, and the United States

China has received enormous inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, including significant flows from Japan and the US. We examine these investment flows in detail to gain perspectives on their relative importance for the three countries involved. We also analyze the industrial composition of FDI flows over time. American FDI flows to China have been less concentrated in manufacturing than average for investors in China while Japan's FDI flows have been much more concentrated in manufacturing, particularly in transport, electrical and machinery industries in recent years. Using survey data from American and Japanese affiliates, we compare the employment patterns and sales destinations of American and Japanese affiliates in China. We find a much higher degree of export-orientation for Japanese affiliates than American affiliates, with the latter tending to make the vast majority of their sales in the Chinese market. Over time, however, we find a tendency towards convergence in the sales destinations of Japanese and American affiliates.     

美日经济走势对中国经济的影响

回顾2000年的世界状况,由于作为全球“火车头”的美国经济继续保持强劲的增长势头,这使得经济衰退长达10年的日本也随之出现了从谷底回升的迹象,中国、东南亚、南美等国家和地区的经济状况总体向好。但随着那斯达克股市的暴跌,首琼斯工业指数和标准普尔500指数分别也跟着下挫了2．9％和7．8％。这使得美国在2000年的第四季度和第一季度出现了增长速度的大幅下滑。对美国经济有相当大依赖性的日本经济,情况也随之恶化,再次走进谷低,同时,受美日经济增长放缓的影响,欧盟的经济进一步疲软。由于美国“泡沫经济”波及全世界,在这一年多的时间里,全球大约10万亿美元的市值消失了,这个数字相当于全世界GDP总值的1／3,世界经济状况发生了逆转。     

中日美家族企业比较:基于文化的视角

以个人主义为中心的美国文化,成就了美国企业以个人分散持股为主的现代公司治理模式、自由竞争式雇佣模式、以企业为重心的传承模式以及自由放任式的政企关系;以家(社团)为中心的日本文化,形成了日本企业以法人持股为主的现代公司治理模式、家庭温情式雇佣模式、以家业为重心的传承模式以及企业与政府间或紧或松的政企关系;而以家庭为中心的中国文化,则形成了中国家族企业的家族式治理模式、差序格局式雇佣模式、以家族为重心的传承模式以及企业与政府之间寻租与被寻租的政企关系。中国企业在选择发展模式上,一定要注意文化的相适性。     

Singapore's Bilateral Merchandise Trade Linkages with Japan and the United States: Trends,Patterns and Comparisons*

This paper analyses and compares trends and patterns in Singapore's bilateral merchandise trade relations with its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States (US). Over the period 1976–1992, the analyses reveal that both Japan and the US have been relatively over-represented as Singapore's trade partners. However, whereas Singapore's trade with Japan has become more intensive in recent years, that with the US has become less so. Computations reveal that the degree as well as level of Singapore's intra-industry trade with the US has exceeded that with Japan. Nevertheless, while the degree of Singapore's intra-industry trade with Japan has been consistently increasing since 1981, bilateral trade with the US since 1987 has become increasingly inter- rather than intra-industry. The important nexus between trade and FDI is also highlighted.     

The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan,Germany, and the United States

Review of World Economics - Die Wirkungen von Trends und Schwankungen der Wechselkurse auf die Exportpreise: Beispiele aus der Industrie Japans, der Bundesrepublik und der Vereinigten Staaten. -...     

美、德、新、日的创新全球化战略综述及其对江苏的启示

在创新全球化的发展潮流下,我国提出创新驱动的发展纲要,江苏作为科技创新大省,特别强调科技创新。文章就美、德、新、日四国为应对创新全球化做出的战略进行了归纳综述,对江苏开展创新活动所具备的科教资源的优势及不足进行了研究,并根据四国的发展经验,为江苏的创新产业升级提出要重视发展特色、重视创新活动多元化开放、重视引育创新人才、重视政府服务与引导等相关建议。     

Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States

Using a VAR model that includes survey data on households’ inflation expectations for Japan and the US, we investigate their determinants and influences on the economy and compare their properties in two countries. Short-term non-recursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous co-dependence between realized and expected inflation. We find that responding to changes in exogenous prices and to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. Compared with Japan, the effects of exogenous prices on inflation and inflation expectations in the US are not only large but also long lasting and shocks to expectations have self-fulfilling effects on inflation.     

汇率波动与居民消费:基于中国、美国、日本数据的检验

理论研究表明,国家之间资本和产品流动的渠道越通畅、风险共享程度越高,国内消费增长状况与货币币值波动状况的联系就越紧密。本文利用2001年第1季度至2010年第4季度中国、美国、日本的数据对此命题进行验证,研究结果表明:在2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革前后,中美、中日消费支出增长率之差与汇率变化率的关系发生了显著的转变,汇改前表现为不相关甚至负相关,汇改后表现为正相关;而美日情形则有所不同,消费支出增长率与汇率变化率关系一直表现为正相关。这为中国扩大居民消费需求提供了新的解决思路。     

A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States,Japan and the European economic community

Zusammenfassung Ein Vergleich von nationalen und internationalen VAR-Modellen mit Angebots- und Nachfrageaggregaten: USA, Japan und Europ?ische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft. - Es wird gezeigt, da\ für nationale Volkswirtschaften und auch für supranationale Gebilde vektorautoregressive Modelle konstruiert werden k?nnen, die Ergebnisse liefern, welche mit einem theoretischen Rahmen für Aggregate des Angebots und der Nachfrage in Einklang stehen. Energiepreise sind in allen Modellen einigerma\en wichtig, aber Geldangebot und Zinsen sind in dem EWG-Modell ziemlich unbedeutend. Natürlich kann dieses Ergebnis auf die Unterschiede zwischen der EWG, den USA und Japan zurückzuführen sein oder auf die Aggregation innerhalb des EWG-Modells. Trotzdem stimmt dieses Ergebnis mit den theoretischen Erwartungen überein, wonach alle Volkswirtschaften gemeinsamen weltweiten Angebotsschocks gegenüberstehen, aber - bei manipulierten floatenden Wechselkursen - eine gewisse monet?re Unabh?ngigkeit besitzen.

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Resumen Comparación de modelos autoregresivos de oferta y demanda agregada nacionales e internacionales: EE.UU., Japón y la Comunidad Económica Europea. - Se demuestra que los modelos VAR pueden ser construidos para economias tanto nacionales como supranacionales con resultados consistentes con el marco teórico de oferta y demanda agregadas. Los precios de energia tienen una cierta importancia en todos los modelos; la oferta monetaria y las tasas de interés no son importantes en el modelo para la CEE. Sin embargo, este resultado es consistente con expectativas teóricas segiín las cuales todas las economias enfrentan shocks de oferta globales comunes, pero disponen de un cierto grado de independencia monetaria en el marco de una flotatión administrada del tipo de cambio.

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Résumé Une comparaison entre des modéles VAR nationaux et internationaux d’offre et demande agrégée: les E.U., le Japon et la CEE. - Les auteurs demontrent que les modéles vecteurautorégressifs peuvent etre construits pour des économies nationales aussi bien que supranationales et que ces modeles produisent des résultats qui s’accordent avec le cadre théorique de l’offre et de la demande agrégée. Les prix d’énérgie sont importants dans tous les modéles jusqu’a un certain point, mais la masse monétaire et les taux d’ interet sont moins importants dans le modéle CEE. Naturellement, ce résultat peut etre expliqué par les différences entre la CEE et les E.U. et le Japon ou par l’agrégation dans le modéle CEE. Cependant, ce résultat est consistant avec des expectatives théoriques car toutes les économies sont confrontees avec des chocs d’offre communs globaux mais disposent de quelque independance monétaire grace au systéme de changes flottants dirigés.

     

Do private capital markets insure regional risk? Evidence from the United States and Europe

A striking feature of international economic relations is the limited extent of intertemporal trade and risk-sharing among nations. This paper uses data on consumption, income, and production from regions of the United States to address the question of whether the limited participation of national economies in international capital markets is a fundamental aspect of economic relations among large geographic regions, or whether it is specifically an artifact of international economic relations. We conclude that capital flows among the regions of the United States are significantly larger than those across countries. However, such private markets still provide a relatively limited degree of insurance against regional fluctuations.     

Singapore’s Bilateral Merchandise Trade Linkages with Japan and the United States: Trends,Patterns and Comparisons

This paper analyses and compares trends and patterns in Singapore’s bilateral merchandise trade relations with its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States (US). Over the period 1976-1992, the analyses reveal that both Japan and the US have been relatively over-represented as Singapore’s trade partners. However, whereas Singapore’s trade with Japan has become more intensive in recent years, that with the US has become less so. Computations reveal that the degree as well as level of Singapore’s intra-industry trade with the US has exceeded that with Japan. Nevertheless, while the degree of Singapore’s intra-industry trade with Japan has been consistently increasing since 1981, bilateral trade with the US since 1987 has become increasingly inter- rather than intra-industry. The important nexus between trade and FDI is also highlighted.